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  • President Donald Trump has threatened to pull the plug on one of the most important arms treaties passed 30 years.

    川普總統威脅要停止三十年來最重要的武備條約之一。

  • One side has not been adhering to it,

    「對方 (俄羅斯) 沒有遵守約定,

  • we have but one side hasn't.

    我們有遵守,但俄羅斯卻沒有。」

  • Signed in 1987, between Russia and America,

    《中程飛彈條約》在 1987 年

  • the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

    由俄羅斯與美國簽訂。

  • otherwise known as the INF contributed to the beginning

    《中程飛彈條約》也被稱作 INF

  • of the end of the Cold War.

    這個條約促成冷戰結束。

  • For more than a decade, Russia has been cheating the terms

    但十幾年來,俄羅斯

  • of the deal.

    持續違反條約規定。

  • But what would be the death of the nuclear pact mean

    不過合約終止

  • for world peace.

    會對世界局勢造成什麼影響呢?

  • In 1987, after the years of the negotiation

    1987 年,經過多年協商,

  • the super powers agreed to meet.

    雷根總統與戈巴契夫終於同意見面簽署 INF。

  • Today, I for the United States and the General Secretary

    「今天,我代表美國和戈巴契夫

  • for the Soviet Union have signed the first agreement ever

    簽訂了史上第一個消弭

  • to eliminate an entire class of US

    美國與俄羅斯

  • and Soviet nuclear weapons.

    所有核武的條約。

  • We have made history.

    我們創下了歷史性的一刻。」

  • Mr. Reagan and Mr. Gorbachev agreed to destroy

    雷根總統與戈巴契夫同意搗毀所有射程 500 至 5500 英里的導彈,

  • and never again produce land based missiles with a range

    也不會再製造

  • of 500 to 5,500 miles.

    同樣射程的彈道導彈。

  • Some politicians and journalists

    「有些政治家和記者

  • are already speculating as to who has won.

    已經開始推測哪一方是贏家,

  • I reject this approach.

    我摒棄這種

  • It is a throwback to old thinking.

    舊時代的想法。」

  • At the time The Economist reported

    當時《經濟人》這麼報導:

  • that the world has crossed the Rubicon

    全世界已經下定決心

  • of nuclear disarmament

    消滅核武,

  • but warned that the west should trend carefully

    但同時《經濟人》也警告西方世界搭上這股潮流時要提高警覺,

  • because westen public opinion may be lulled

    因為大眾可能會被誤導,

  • into thinking that Russia is no longer an adversary.

    以為俄羅斯不再是敵人,

  • In the Department of Defense, we've viewed Gorbachev

    「當時在國防部談判,我們覺得戈巴契夫

  • as someone we could do business with.

    能和我們達成共識,

  • He was looking to the future and understood

    他注重未來發展,

  • it could not be based on confrontation with the west.

    了解不能一直和美國針鋒相對。」

  • Frank Miller spent 30 years working

    法蘭克米勒在美國國安局

  • for the US government on national security

    任職了三十年,

  • and negotiated nuclear deals with the Russians.

    曾和俄羅斯協商核武條款。

  • This is what the INF Treaty was all about.

    「《中程核飛彈條約》就是在規範這些導彈的使用。」

  • But 30 years after the landmark treaty,

    當時美俄簽訂了此具有代表性的條約,然而三十年過去了,

  • both sites blame the other for breaking the agreement.

    雙方都在互相指責對方違約,

  • In 1987 we were looking to work together

    「1987 年我們期待能一起消滅核武,

  • and there was a spirit of cooperation.

    當時兩國一心想要攜手合作,

  • There is now a spirit

    但現在莫斯科

  • of confrontation emanating from Moscow.

    卻飄來了衝突火藥味。

  • Putin is using his intelligence services

    普丁總統正利用

  • in his cyber services to try to disrupt events

    網路情報服務誤導大眾對西方世界的想法。

  • in the west and today the Russians actually believe

    現在俄羅斯人其實已相信

  • that nuclear weapons are useful weapons of war

    核子武器對戰爭有幫助,

  • and certainly they use them all the time as weapons

    他們一定會一直用核武

  • of coercion and intimidation.

    進行脅迫與恫嚇。」

  • Over the past decade, Russia has been testing

    過去十年來,俄羅斯持續毀約,

  • and deploying missiles that break the deal.

    部署與試驗飛彈,

  • The Russians say that it is America

    俄羅斯政府說

  • that's broken he treaty,

    毀約的是美國,

  • claiming NATO's defense shield in Romania and Poland

    北大西洋公約組織在羅馬尼亞與波蘭

  • has the capacity

    的防衛基地

  • to fire intermediate-range missiles into Russia.

    能對俄羅斯發射中程飛彈。

  • Relations between the United States and Russia now

    「美國與俄羅斯現在的關係不好

  • are poor and are getting worse.

    而且每況愈下,

  • We need to make clear to Mr. Putin that aggression

    我們必須讓普丁了解

  • against the United States is not a policy goal

    對美國挑釁

  • he can pursue.

    並非好對策。」

  • Both sides have six months to negotiate

    在《中程飛彈條約》廢除之前,

  • before the deal is disbanded.

    美國和俄羅斯有六個月可以談判,

  • But if the treaty collapses,

    但如果條約廢除了,

  • the consequences could be severe.

    後果恐怕更加嚴重。

  • Other countries who are not signatories to the INF

    其他當初沒有簽約的國家─

  • including China, India, and Israel

    包括中國、印度、與以色列,

  • have been stockpiling missiles.

    已經在儲備飛彈,

  • The US and Russia may look to catch up,

    美國與俄羅斯可能會想要跟進,

  • sparking an arms race that could jeopardize what is left

    進而引發軍備競賽,

  • of global arms control.

    危及全球的武器管控,

  • Most worryingly, the potential death of the INF

    最讓人擔心的是:《中程飛彈條約》被廢除後,

  • has called into question the new start treaty,

    美俄之間是否還會簽署

  • a pact between Russia and America that deals

    長程核彈的協定

  • with long range nuclear missiles.

    仍是個問號,

  • If this is not agreed,

    倘若雙方沒有達成共識,

  • there would be no constraint on the nuclear forces

    這就會是近五十年來

  • of America and Russia for the first time

    美俄之間第一次

  • in almost 50 years.

    沒有規範核武的條款。

President Donald Trump has threatened to pull the plug on one of the most important arms treaties passed 30 years.

川普總統威脅要停止三十年來最重要的武備條約之一。

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 條約 俄羅斯 飛彈 核武 美國 導彈

下一個全球軍備競賽?| 經濟學家》雜誌 (The next global arms race? | The Economist)

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    Liang Chen 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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