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  • China's economy is slowing.


  • On Monday, official numbers showed annual GDP growth in China last year fell to its lowest level since 1990.

    在週一,官方數據顯示中國去年國內生產總值已降至自 1990 年來的新低。

  • Growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was the slowest quarterly growth since the financial crisis a decade ago.

    2018 年第四季的成長是自十年前金融危機以來最少的一次。

  • And the economy has now slowed for three consecutive quarters.


  • For investors, the big questions are whether this is the start of a long awaited hard landing for the Chinese economy, and how much that can be blamed on the trade war with the US.

    對投資者而言,最大的疑問是 : 這是否正是久違的中國經濟衰弱?還有這和中美貿易戰有多大的關係?

  • Official numbers indicate that the direct hit from US trade tariffs is not as bad as it could have been, but economists and company executives say the impact on sentiment goes much deeper, hitting high street spending and new investment by Chinese and foreign companies in the country.


  • Many companies are reluctant to build new factories because of fears their exports will be hit by US tariffs, and that has contributed to the slowdown in an economy that remains extraordinarily reliant on investment.


  • Beijing has been trying to wean the economy off its addiction to debt-fueled stimulus, but the current slowdown has prompted the government to open the spigots once again.

    北京一直在試著讓經濟體脫離借貸上癮帶來的刺激 (中國一度仰賴借貸創造經濟高成長、挺過金融危機),但是近日的成長減緩已促使政府再開癮頭。

  • The question is whether the same old formula will work to revive the world's second biggest economy once again.

    問題是 : 同樣的一招是否能夠讓這個世界第二大經濟體再次復甦?

  • Overall debt in China has now reached around 300% of GDP, and more than a decade of frantic infrastructure construction means there is much less need for those roads, bridges, and railway lines.

    中國債務已經達到其國內生產總值的近 300%,而基礎建設瘋狂營建了十幾年,就意味著對於道路、橋墩和鐵路的建設需求將不如以往。

  • The government is trying to convince state-owned banks to lend more to private companies, which already provide most of the growth and employment in China.


  • But with the economy slowing and defaults rising, the banks prefer to lend to state companies.


  • It is still too early to say whether China is headed for a full fledged hard landing, but it is clear that US President Donald Trump's trade war is making that possibility more likely.


China's economy is slowing.



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中國增速創1990年以來最低 (China growth rate at its lowest since 1990)

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    April Lu 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日