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  • It's been a bumpy start to the new year.


  • On one of the first trading days of 2019, Apple issued an unusual profit warning.

    2019 年交易開工的某一天,蘋果 (Apple) 發出了不尋常的營收警訊。

  • And that sent the iPhone maker's shares sliding almost 10% in one day, and the rest of the markets followed.

    這個事件導致 iPhone 製造商的市場佔有率在一天內幾乎掉了 10 個百分比,其他領域的市場也跟進。

  • In the US, in Europe, in Asia, equities slid.


  • And they weren't the only securities that reacted.


  • We had turmoil in currencies, with a flash crash driving up the value of the yen.

    貨幣市場一片混亂,(匯市) 閃崩讓日圓升值。

  • Equity markets had been sagging for a couple of months.


  • That was a reflection of a loss of momentum in the global economy since about the summer.


  • Both in Europe and in China, growth had been slowing quite markedly in the autumn.


  • The exception was the US, where growth has remained strong on the back of a tax cut enacted one year ago.


  • But maybe the Apple profit warning marks a change thing.


  • That was on the back of poor iPhone sales in China, which in turn may reflect increased worries about the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

    歸咎於 iPhone 在中國的銷售成績不佳,進而可能反映出人民與日俱增的擔心,惟恐全球最大的兩個經濟體開打貿易戰。

  • So what do investors expect going forward?


  • Well, they do seem to think that policymakers will start to get more worried, too.


  • Markets bounced when they heard Beijing announce stimulus to bank lending to boost growth.


  • And in just a month, expectations of what the Federal Reserve will do have changed dramatically.


  • At the start of December, markets tended to expect another one or two interest rate hikes in 2019.

    十二月初,市場傾向預期 2019 年有一、兩波利率成長潮。

  • That has now changed.


  • Nobody expects hikes and the majority of the market now seems to think the likelihood is for a cut.


  • And in the US, investors following the Federal Reserve have dramatically changed their expectations for what will happen in 2019.

    在美國,跟隨聯邦準備系統的投資人對 2019 的展望已大大改變。

  • Just a month ago, they expected further tightening.


  • That has changed.


  • If you look at this chart, the light blue line indicates the probability that markets estimate for another rate increase in 2019.

    看看這張曲線圖,淡藍色的線表示,市場預估 2019 年另一波匯率成長的可能性。

  • That was 40% as late as early December, a month ago.

    不過一個月前,十二月初時還有 40%。

  • That has fallen to almost zero.


  • In contrast, the purple line, the probability of no change to rates, and the dark blue line of a cut in rates, have both gone up.


  • So that means according to markets, the overwhelming likelihood is now that the Federal Reserve will stay the course or even loosen in 2019.

    表示根據市場趨勢,這些絕大多數的可能性,都認為在 2019 年,聯邦準備系統將會堅持到底或鬆懈。

  • So to sum up, a turbulent start to the year in markets, who now expect policymakers to turn from a more hawkish to a more dovish stance in 2019.

    總而言之,今年市場的一開始呈現混亂狀態,而 (投資人) 現在期望 2019 年,決策者改站在較鴿派而不是鷹派的立場。

  • We'll soon find out if they're right.


It's been a bumpy start to the new year.



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