Contrary to popular belief, bull markets do not last forever.

和一般大眾的認知不同，牛市狀態不會永遠維持。

Now we have seen in the past, when markets do reach that 20

過去我們都經歷過，當市場跌了 20%，隨之而來的通常是邁入 30% 的大跌。

And it can take up to two years on average for markets to actually get back to their original values and start moving higher.

平均可能需要兩年的時間讓股價回升，以及開始接著上漲。

Now that's the bad news.

這是壞消息。

The good news is that bear markets also do come to a close and there are things that you can do to protect yourselves during a bear market decline, and in fact even make some money while it's happening.

好消息是，熊市狀態終會結束，有幾點可以保護你免受熊市跌停的波及，甚至可以藉此賺些錢。

Now the most important thing, lesson number one: is do not panic.

最重要的是：第一點，不要慌張。

That's the worst thing that you can do is chase the market lower.

最糟的決定就是追求更低的股價。

You're going to lock in losses and you're going to regret it later.

這樣會被股票套牢，隨後後悔莫及。

What you can do is you can strategically take some risk off the table and raise some cash.

你可以做的是：有策略性地減少檯面上的風險，然後籌措資金。

Cash, for the first time in a decade, gives you some return.

近十年內，現金第一次回報你。

A three-month Treasury note actually has yield now.

為期三個月的國債券已經生息了。

So does a money market. So does even a plain vanilla savings account.

貨幣市場和一般銀行帳戶亦是如此。

So what's the advantage of raising cash during this time?

所以這段時間籌措資金有甚麼好處？

So you have opportunities later.

隨之而來的是機遇

You can buy things that are on sale during a bear market and make some great investments for value.

你可以在熊市購入特惠商品，之後好好投資

You want to talk about value? Let's talk about Warren Buffett.

想談談價值？我們來談巴菲特吧。

Back in 2009, when everybody else was panicking, Buffett made a big investment in the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad.

當 2009 年大家都在恐慌時，不得不提巴菲特，他大膽投資柏林頓北方聖塔菲鐵路公司。

And I just basically believe this country will prosper and they'll have more people moving more goods 10 and 20 and 30 years from now.

我只是相信這個國家會復甦，將有越來越多人在 10、20、30 年後進行貨物流通。

And the rail should benefit, but it's a bet on the country basically.

鐵路應該會因此受益，但這基本上取決於國家的發展。

He believed in America back then, and he also believed that the bear market was going to end and when it did end there was going to be a bounce back and an opportunity to make money.

當年他對美國有信心，也相信熊市會走向盡頭，等到結束之際景氣將回升，並出現賺錢的好機會。

That bet played out into one of the best parts of Warren Buffett's career, and he has made a ton of money on that over the past decade.

這個賭注成為巴菲特事業中的一大亮點，因為在過去十年，他藉此賺取大筆獲利。

Buffett's philosophy can be summed up in just looking for value during bad times and trusting that things are going to turn back around again.

巴菲特的哲學可以用一句話形容：在艱困時期有利可圖，並堅信風水輪流轉。

Remember what Buffett says: "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy."

銘記巴菲特所說的：「眾人皆慎我獨貪，眾人皆貪我獨慎。」

Think safe havens during these times: short-term bonds, commodities like gold and silver.

在關鍵時期，小心點總是好的，像是短期債券與金、銀等期貨。

Those are all traditional places where investors will put their money for safety during times of turmoil in the financial markets.

這些都是傳統上投資人在金融市場動盪時的金錢保障。

If you are going to dabble in stocks, keep a few things in mind.

若是想涉足股市，有幾點要注意：

High dividend stocks are an excellent place to put money.

高股利的股票非常適合投資。

Why? Because you're getting paid to hold them–also preferred shares along the same lines.

原因？因為你被付錢要持有這些股份，優先股也是同樣的道理。

And if something does happen with the company, you get paid.

如果公司發生不測，你會得到理賠。

In a bear market people are tightening their belts, so think about where they're going.

熊市狀態時投資相對保守，所以想想這時候大家金錢的流向。

They're going to discount stores. They're going to Walmart.They're going to Dollar General.

他們花在打折的商店，像是沃瑪特，還有達樂。

Back during the crisis, while the rest of the market was falling apart, Walmart held it's value.

當金融危機時，市場其他公司都在狂跌，但沃瑪特的股價卻保持穩定。

Why? That's where people were shopping during that downtime and investors were rewarded for it.

為何？因為停工期大家都在這裡購物，投資者因而受益。

Real estate also can be a solid investment during these times.

在這段時間，不動產也是穩固的投資。

Yes, prices can go down, but they've shown to be less volatile over time.

雖然房價可能下跌但較不易隨著時間變動。

Also it's nice to know that even if it's not appreciated in value, you can actually live there.

另外，即使不增值，你還可以自己入住。

Remember, it's not just the U.S. stock market, it's a global stock market, and over the past couple of years global stocks have gotten beaten up fairly badly.

切記，這不僅是美國股市的問題，而是攸關全球股市的經濟。過去幾年，全球股市可以說被重創。

So that's going to present you with an opportunity to find bargains there as well.

這代表你也有機會藉此撿到便宜。

No one knows how long a bear market can last or how strong it can get, but there are ways for you as an investor to make your way through it.

沒人知道熊市會維持多久，或影響力多大，不過做為投資人，你總有辦法度過難關的。