Luckily, lots of people made lots of them in markets in 2018.

非常幸運地，2018 年提供我們豐富的教材。

So what did we learn?

我們究竟學到什麼教訓呢？

1. What goes up...

1. 即將面臨的是...

Yes, this is an obvious point, but it suddenly seemed to take a lot of investors by surprise, that markets can go down, as well as up.

我們大家都明白，但不知怎麼一堆投資人突然醒悟，原來市場是會上下波動的。

Two big shocks in 2018 drove this home.

2018 年有兩回市場震盪清楚證明了這個觀點。

One in February, when the Vix index tracking expected volatility went haywire, delivering a heavy blow to the S&P 500 that fanned across other assets.

去年二月，追蹤市場潛在波動的 Vix 指數失控，嚴重衝擊連動其他資產之標普 500。

And one in October, sparked by a mix of higher interest rates in the US, and cracks in big tech.

而在去年十月，引爆點是美國一連串的高利率，最後延燒到科技龍頭。

The latter was initially written off as a blip, but recoveries through November and December have proven fleeting.

原本後者看起來只是一段小插曲，但接下來十一、十二月的復甦卻不如預期。

Brace for more volatility in 2019,which some investors have described as the year of the bull, the, bear and the kangaroo.

2019 年，準備好面對更不安定的市場，投資人分別以公牛、熊、袋鼠來描述這新的一年。

2. The hedges don't work.

2. 避險手段依舊躲不了風險。

So, it's OK, though, right?

到頭來事情都會好轉的，對吧？

When stocks and other so-called risk assets hit the skids, you can always fall back on government bonds and have currency, surely.

當股票及其他所謂的風險資產不小心打滑，你總是可以從政府公債、貨幣調整著手解決吧？

Well, not this year.

今年這是行不通的。

Correlations that typically hold fast have fallen apart and no one is quite sure why.

以往堅定不搖的關聯已經瓦解，沒有人清楚知道原因。

Government bonds, notably in the US, have dropped out of long-held ranges.

政府公債，尤其是在美國，已不再具備長期持有的性質。

And the Swiss franc and yen, usually mechanical beneficiaries in times of stress, failed to climb.

至於瑞士法郎和日圓，以前往往是貨幣市場壓力下的獲益者，如今不再爬升。

This has been a nightmare for many hedge funds and other investors.

這對許多避險基金、投資人來說都是噩夢一場。

The most plausible explanation I've heard for this breakdown in reliable patterns is that the power in trading has shifted away from banks.

對於這種有跡可循的市場失控，我聽過最可信的解釋為：銀行已失去對交易的掌控。

The muscle memory employed by traders on trading floors is just not there any more.

交易所中人們慣用的伎倆已不再管用。

That leaves other funds and high-frequency traders to fill the gap.

這個空缺就等著其他資金以及高頻交易者來填補。

And with fresh eyes, it's always been tough to see why the yen, for example, plays that role.

而從另一個角度來看，一直以來我們都很難解釋，舉例來說，日圓扮演的角色。

Easy fallbacks are just so 2017.

想要留條後路的話，看看 2017 就行。

3. It's the politics, stupid.

別傻了，一切都會扯上政治。

Never have political consultants been in such high demand among investors.

現在投資人比任何時候都想延攬政治顧問。

Hedge funds that correctly predicted the election of a maverick new coalition government in Italy made a fortune on the subsequent collapse in Italian government bonds.

當義大利反體制的新聯合政府勝選，隨後政府公債崩潰，成功預測的避險基金都因而大賺一筆。

Turkish politics, no stranger to drama, generated a full-blown currency crisis.

一向充滿戲劇性的土耳其政局引爆了全面的貨幣危機。

The plot of the Brexit soap opera meanwhile, has become so baffling that many overseas investors are simply staying right out of sterling markets.

至於上演中的英國脫歐連續劇，實在太複雜難解，害得許多海外投資人乾脆遠離英鎊市場。

The smart money says sterling is heavily undervalued at this point, but until the politics clears up, it's impossible to put money behind that view.

投資老手很清楚目前英鎊被嚴重低估了，但在局勢明朗之前，他們不可能把錢砸在一團迷霧上。

4. From QE to QT.

4. 從量化寬鬆到量化緊縮。

And finally, after a decade of quantitative easing from central banks, we're shifting to quantitative tightening.

最後，十年來的央行量化寬鬆後，我們將反其道而行。

Turning off the stimulus taps, in other words.

換言之，終止先前的刺激性手段。

Has the Fed raised rates too much already?

美國 Fed 是否調升利率太過火了？

Will it hit the brakes?

它會踩下煞車嗎？

How bumpy will the US landing be?

美國經濟又會因此受到什麼樣的衝擊呢？

In Europe, investors almost unanimously believe the withdrawal of support will be smooth and well-managed.

在歐洲幾乎每一位投資者都認為在良好管控下，抽掉利率支撐的過程會走得很平順。

With such widespread confidence, what could possibly go wrong next year?

既然大家信心滿滿，2019 有什麼好擔心的呢？