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  • It's the time of year for learning from mistakes.

    一年初始,該是從錯誤中學習的時候了。

  • Luckily, lots of people made lots of them in markets in 2018.

    非常幸運地,2018 年提供我們豐富的教材。

  • So what did we learn?

    我們究竟學到什麼教訓呢?

  • 1. What goes up...

    1. 即將面臨的是...

  • Yes, this is an obvious point, but it suddenly seemed to take a lot of investors by surprise, that markets can go down, as well as up.

    我們大家都明白,但不知怎麼一堆投資人突然醒悟,原來市場是會上下波動的。

  • Two big shocks in 2018 drove this home.

    2018 年有兩回市場震盪清楚證明了這個觀點。

  • One in February, when the Vix index tracking expected volatility went haywire, delivering a heavy blow to the S&P 500 that fanned across other assets.

    去年二月,追蹤市場潛在波動的 Vix 指數失控,嚴重衝擊連動其他資產之標普 500。

  • And one in October, sparked by a mix of higher interest rates in the US, and cracks in big tech.

    而在去年十月,引爆點是美國一連串的高利率,最後延燒到科技龍頭。

  • The latter was initially written off as a blip, but recoveries through November and December have proven fleeting.

    原本後者看起來只是一段小插曲,但接下來十一、十二月的復甦卻不如預期。

  • Brace for more volatility in 2019,which some investors have described as the year of the bull, the, bear and the kangaroo.

    2019 年,準備好面對更不安定的市場,投資人分別以公牛、熊、袋鼠來描述這新的一年。

  • 2. The hedges don't work.

    2. 避險手段依舊躲不了風險。

  • So, it's OK, though, right?

    到頭來事情都會好轉的,對吧?

  • When stocks and other so-called risk assets hit the skids, you can always fall back on government bonds and have currency, surely.

    當股票及其他所謂的風險資產不小心打滑,你總是可以從政府公債、貨幣調整著手解決吧?

  • Well, not this year.

    今年這是行不通的。

  • Correlations that typically hold fast have fallen apart and no one is quite sure why.

    以往堅定不搖的關聯已經瓦解,沒有人清楚知道原因。

  • Government bonds, notably in the US, have dropped out of long-held ranges.

    政府公債,尤其是在美國,已不再具備長期持有的性質。

  • And the Swiss franc and yen, usually mechanical beneficiaries in times of stress, failed to climb.

    至於瑞士法郎和日圓,以前往往是貨幣市場壓力下的獲益者,如今不再爬升。

  • This has been a nightmare for many hedge funds and other investors.

    這對許多避險基金、投資人來說都是噩夢一場。

  • The most plausible explanation I've heard for this breakdown in reliable patterns is that the power in trading has shifted away from banks.

    對於這種有跡可循的市場失控,我聽過最可信的解釋為:銀行已失去對交易的掌控。

  • The muscle memory employed by traders on trading floors is just not there any more.

    交易所中人們慣用的伎倆已不再管用。

  • That leaves other funds and high-frequency traders to fill the gap.

    這個空缺就等著其他資金以及高頻交易者來填補。

  • And with fresh eyes, it's always been tough to see why the yen, for example, plays that role.

    而從另一個角度來看,一直以來我們都很難解釋,舉例來說,日圓扮演的角色。

  • Easy fallbacks are just so 2017.

    想要留條後路的話,看看 2017 就行。

  • 3. It's the politics, stupid.

    別傻了,一切都會扯上政治。

  • Never have political consultants been in such high demand among investors.

    現在投資人比任何時候都想延攬政治顧問。

  • Hedge funds that correctly predicted the election of a maverick new coalition government in Italy made a fortune on the subsequent collapse in Italian government bonds.

    當義大利反體制的新聯合政府勝選,隨後政府公債崩潰,成功預測的避險基金都因而大賺一筆。

  • Turkish politics, no stranger to drama, generated a full-blown currency crisis.

    一向充滿戲劇性的土耳其政局引爆了全面的貨幣危機。

  • The plot of the Brexit soap opera meanwhile, has become so baffling that many overseas investors are simply staying right out of sterling markets.

    至於上演中的英國脫歐連續劇,實在太複雜難解,害得許多海外投資人乾脆遠離英鎊市場。

  • The smart money says sterling is heavily undervalued at this point, but until the politics clears up, it's impossible to put money behind that view.

    投資老手很清楚目前英鎊被嚴重低估了,但在局勢明朗之前,他們不可能把錢砸在一團迷霧上。

  • 4. From QE to QT.

    4. 從量化寬鬆到量化緊縮。

  • And finally, after a decade of quantitative easing from central banks, we're shifting to quantitative tightening.

    最後,十年來的央行量化寬鬆後,我們將反其道而行。

  • Turning off the stimulus taps, in other words.

    換言之,終止先前的刺激性手段。

  • Has the Fed raised rates too much already?

    美國 Fed 是否調升利率太過火了?

  • Will it hit the brakes?

    它會踩下煞車嗎?

  • How bumpy will the US landing be?

    美國經濟又會因此受到什麼樣的衝擊呢?

  • In Europe, investors almost unanimously believe the withdrawal of support will be smooth and well-managed.

    在歐洲幾乎每一位投資者都認為在良好管控下,抽掉利率支撐的過程會走得很平順。

  • With such widespread confidence, what could possibly go wrong next year?

    既然大家信心滿滿,2019 有什麼好擔心的呢?

It's the time of year for learning from mistakes.

一年初始,該是從錯誤中學習的時候了。

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2018年:來自市場的四個教訓 (2018: four lessons from the markets)

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    Jessieeee 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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