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  • >>Peter Diamandis: It's a pleasure to be here and an honor to be here, and thank you to

  • the organizers for such an extraordinary, fun couple of days.

  • Let's get started, if I can get the first slide up. Here we go.

  • So abundance. The future is better than you think. What leads me to that conclusion really

  • is that we're living in a day and age where small teams of individuals can literally do

  • what only governments and large corporations could do before.

  • And I also believe we're living in a did and age where we have the ability to literally

  • take on and solve the world's grand challenges. And when I say that, many people sort of scoff

  • at that idea and they say, my God, huge challenges. How can we possibly take these on and solve

  • them in our lifetime? And the challenge is that we're thinking about

  • these things using the linear software and hardware of our brains that evolved over time.

  • If you go back millions of years or hundreds of thousands of years when we were evolving

  • as humans on the planes of Africa, the world back then would be best described as being

  • local and linear. When I say that, it is local in that everything that affected you was within

  • a day's walk. And it was linear in that the life of your grandparents, your parents, you,

  • your kids, their kids, nothing changed generation to generation, millennia to millennia. So

  • we evolved our brains in a way of thinking just locally and linearly, and that's the

  • way we think today. But the fact of the matter is, we're living

  • in a world that is best described as global and exponential. You know, something happens

  • in China or India or California, you know about it seconds later, if not milliseconds

  • later. And it is exponential in that not only is

  • the life of our parents and you and our kids different, it is different over a few years.

  • Think about the technologies that didn't exist ten years ago that we are now completely and

  • totally dependent on. So it's that rapid change that is creating this change, this missed

  • expectation, if you would. It is this yellow exponential curve, which

  • is where technologies are coming online, and that red flat line, which is the way our brains

  • think in a linear and local fashion. And the disconnect between that is really the transformative

  • potential we as humans now have to take on and solve the world's grand challenges.

  • Now, what's been driving all of this capability, this extraordinary move forward is, as you

  • well know, Moore's law. This is a simple plot of computational speed. There is a log scale

  • on the left, a hundred years across the bottom. And there are two things I want you to take

  • away from this chart. The first is over these hundred years how smooth and consistent the

  • growth in computational speed has been. Literally, it is the result of faster computers being

  • used to build faster computers. It doesn't go up and down with war time and peace time

  • and boom time and depression. It is literally faster computers building faster computers.

  • The second thing I want you to take away from this curve is that even though, taking you

  • back to your high school math, on a log curve an exponential should be a straight line,

  • it is curving upwards, which is the fact that computers are, in fact, getting faster and

  • faster at a faster rate. So that kind of capability is driving us across

  • a whole slew of technologies, infinite computing, if you would, cloud computing, if you would,

  • sensors and networks, robotics -- we just saw some beautiful demonstrations of that

  • -- 3D printing, digital manufacturing synthetic biology, digital medicine, nanomaterials,

  • and artificial intelligence. These are the tools that people have to literally

  • take on and change the world. And those of you -- I'm curious, how many of you saw the

  • winning of the game in the United States "Jeopardy" by IBM's Watson computer?

  • So a small number, but it was an epic event. And A.I. is, if you would, the partner to

  • robotics we just saw. With that, I would like to show you a short clip because you really

  • should get a sense of what this kind of capability can now bring this.

  • [ VIDEO PLAYING ] >>Peter Diamandis: I swear they do that on

  • purpose. It's literally now -- the technologies that exist allow us to democratize the ability

  • to change the world, to take on the grand challenges. And at Singularity University,

  • what we do is we ask graduate students to start companies that can positively impact

  • the lives of a billion people within a decade. We call that tenth to the ninth impact.

  • So if you have the ability of small teams to change the world, the question is: How

  • do you focus them? And we're living in a day and age where the world's biggest problems

  • are also the world's biggest market opportunities. Solve hunger, energy, water and you make billions

  • in the process and you get the benefit of the planet.

  • So I also run an organization called the X PRIZE Foundation. I was inspired by Lindbergh's

  • flight across the Atlantic to win a $25,000 prize and launch something called the Ansari

  • X PRIZE for space flight. That was a huge success, opened up a private space flight

  • industry. We now have Virgin Galactic using the winning technology from this vehicle.

  • I then went on. We had the Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE asking teams to build 100-mile-per-gallon

  • equivalent cars. 130 teams entered this competition. Three were won, now going into production.

  • And then recently on the heels of the BP Oil spill, James Cameron had just joined our board

  • and said, "You got to do something about that." And we put out a challenge because what we

  • found out is that the mechanism for cleaning up oil spills in the ocean's surface had not

  • changed between the Exxon Valdez and the spill in the Gulf, 21 years.

  • We launched the Wendy Schmidt Oil Cleanup X Challenge, $1.4 million of prize money,

  • asking teams to please figure out how to at least double the rate at which oil was cleaned

  • up on the ocean's surface. 350 teams entered this competition. The top ten teams went head

  • to head in the world's largest oil spill cleanup facility. And seven of the ten teams, for

  • a $1.4 million prize, doubled what had been the existing standards for 21 years. Extraordinary.

  • One of the teams was a family out of Alaska who built the dad's design.

  • The winning team was able to increase it 6X, sixfold increase in the oil spill cleanup

  • rate. You clean it in the ocean before it hits the shore.

  • But what really impressed me, the concept of what's called cognitive surplus that Clay

  • Shirky speaks about, was a team that met in a Las Vegas tattoo parlor, I kid you not,

  • that doubled the existing standards for cleaning up oil. I will show you a short video.

  • [ VIDEO PLAYING ] >>Peter Diamandis: So the question is: When

  • you're looking to solve the world's biggest problems, where do you find the solutions?

  • Because sometimes the expert is the person who can tell you exactly how it can't be done,

  • right? And it is really people coming at the problem with an orthogonal point of view.

  • So for us, it's really the challenge to put out to the world and say, These are the biggest

  • problems. Solve these problems. So where are we going next? Well, we have

  • the $30 million Google Lunar X PRIZE. We have 26 teams around the world who are building

  • private lunar lander vehicles to go back to the moon, bring down the cost of opening the

  • space frontier by orders of magnitude but, most importantly, to inspire scientists and

  • engineers, young kids, to go and really create the Apollo of today's generation.

  • We just launched at CES something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE. We

  • are asking teams around the world to build literally a handheld mobile device that any

  • consumer can use that you can cough on, talk to, do a finger blood prick and can diagnose

  • you better than a team of board certified doctors. We expect this to be won in the next

  • four years. But what gets really, really exciting is that

  • three months after we launched this in January, we have almost 200 teams from 25 countries

  • competing for this competition, who I would have never found if I was looking for them.

  • So, where are we going? We just raised $19 million from the Robin Hood Foundation in

  • New York, a group of hedge fund managers and bankers to look at X PRIZEs to attack poverty.

  • And then one of my commitments this year is to launch a series of X PRIZEs in education,

  • to reinvent how we educate our kids, finally, after a couple hundred years.

  • So I say with all of what I have learned from SU and X PRIZE is that we are heading into

  • a world of abundance, a transformative world. People say, Really? Can we really be doing

  • that? Haven't you heard all the negative views out there?

  • But, you know, the news media's purpose is to get your attention and they get it by giving

  • you negative news constantly to your tablet, to your phone, to your newspaper, to your

  • radio. It is a drug, and they are the drug pusher.

  • But the fact of the matter is the world has been getting better at an extraordinary rate

  • and that literally technology has been the mechanism for turning scarcity into abundance.

  • And I will give this one example which for me was very poignant. The guy on the left

  • here is Napoleon, III. It is about 1840 and the guy on the right is the King of Siam.

  • And Napoleon invites the King of Siam over for dinner. And Napoleon feeds his troops

  • with silver utensils. Napoleon himself is fed with gold utensils, but to impress the

  • King of Siam, he is fed with aluminum utensils. You see, aluminum back then was the most precious

  • metal on the planet. Even though it is 8.3% of the earth by weight, all of the aluminum

  • is bound with oxygen and silicates. It is so difficult to extract from bauxite because

  • you don't find it pure in the ground, that it was worth more than gold and platinum.

  • That's why in D.C. the tip of the Washington Monument is made of aluminum because it was

  • built in that same decade. And then the technology of electrolysis came

  • along and made literally the ability to remove aluminum so cheap that we use it with a throw-away

  • mentality. So if you think about that, where technology

  • is a liberating force, the same thing holds in a lot of other areas.

  • Energy, we talk about energy scarcity. Ladies and gentlemen, we are living on a planet 5,000

  • times more energy hits the surface than we consume as a species in a year. It's there,

  • just not yet accessible. But technology is changing that.

  • Last year the cost of solar dropped nearly 50%. The technologies are coming online where

  • solar is growing at 30% penetration a year. If you have abundant energy, you have abundant

  • water. We talk about water wars and water scarcity, but we live on a water planet. 70%

  • of our planet is covered with water. Yes, 97.5% is saltwater, 2% is ice. We fight over

  • half a percent. But in the same way that technology brought aluminum out of bauxite so, too, technologies

  • coming online right now to make water available and available for all.

  • Think about this Maasai warrior in the middle of Kenya. This gentleman on a cell phone today

  • has better mobile com than President Reagan did 25 years ago, right? And if he is on Google

  • on a smartphone, he has got more access to knowledge, information than President Clinton

  • did 15 years ago. He is living in a world of information communications abundance.

  • We talked about the Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE. Imagine Watson, if you would, on your cell

  • phone giving every kid a personalized education. And, perhaps, for me this is one of the most

  • impactful parts of the forces driving us towards a world of abundance.

  • So look at this chart. This is population, the white lines. We've just crossed the 7

  • billion mark. Those of you who are concerned about population

  • explosion on this planet, do you know the one way to bring down a population, growth

  • rate of a country? Educate them and give them great health.

  • Well, this green line over here is Internet penetration. In 2010, we were just short of

  • 2 billion people connected to the Internet on this planet. By 2020, we're going from

  • 2 billion to 5 billion people. Three billion new minds are plugging into the global conversation.

  • What do these people want? What are they going to invent? What are they going to create?

  • What do they desire? They represent one of the untapped resources this planet has to

  • address and solve our grandest challenges. Ladies and gentlemen, we're living in a day

  • and age where we have the ability to solve the world's biggest problems. We have the

  • technology. We have the passion. We have the minds.

  • So my question for you is: What are you focused on solving because we can bring about a world

  • of abundance. Thank you. [ Applause ]

>>Peter Diamandis: It's a pleasure to be here and an honor to be here, and thank you to

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超越今天--彼得-迪亞曼迪斯--2012年的時代特徵 (Beyond Today - Peter Diamandis - Zeitgeist 2012)

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    王惟惟 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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