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  • This video is sponsored by Dashlane.

    這支影片由 Dashlane 所贊助。

  • Conveniently store your passwords and get 10% off premium when you sign up with the link in the description.

    使用下面的連結來註冊,可享有簡易的密碼存儲功能,並獲得 10% 的折扣。

  • China is huge.


  • The kind of huge that's hard to wrap your head around.


  • Beginning in the 1950's, its population exploded, from an already respectable 500 million to almost three times that today.

    從 1950 年代起,它的人口開始爆炸性激增,從已經相當可觀的 5 億,現在增加到將近 3 倍。

  • which makes it bigger than all of North America, Australia, and Europe combined.


  • Its consistent economic growth has made it one of the world's great powers,


  • with enough military might to claim the strategically important South China Sea,


  • and enough influence to begin the most ambitious infrastructure project in history.


  • A $1 trillion dollar network of ports, pipelines, and railroads across 65 countries.

    價值 1 億美元建構的網絡,包含了港口,油管和鐵路,遍布在 65 個國家。

  • But none of this was inevitable.


  • While China rapidly and forcefully industrialized, it faced massive famine and housing shortages.


  • Its economy needed time to develop, and the world deeply feared overpopulation.


  • China's response was the famous One Child Policy, which limited ethnic Chinese families to a single child, with a few exceptions.


  • To enforce the law, women were forcefully sterilized and fined for having too many children.


  • The problem is: it worked.


  • Or, something did.


  • Historians doubt it prevented all 400 million births claimed by the government,

    歷史學家懷疑,是否真如中國政府所聲稱的,減少了 4 億新生兒

  • but China's total Fertility Rate, the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, has fallen all the way to 1.6, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain its size.

    但中國的總生育率,即女性一生中的平均生育率,卻一路降至 1.6,遠低於維持國家規模所需的 2.1。

  • There simply aren't enough children, and in a few short years, China will begin to shrink.


  • The One Child Policy was repealed in 2015, but it won't make a significant difference,

    一胎化政策在 2015 年被廢除,但它不會帶來什麼改變

  • because it only ever sped-up the unavoidable: As nations develop, they choose to have drastically fewer children.


  • China's problem isn't unique, about half the world lives in a country that is or soon will be in the same position, but it is uniquely big, and the timing, uniquely bad.


  • The story of China in the 21st century is just as much about demographics as it is GDP,

    21 世紀的中國,他的人口數與其 GDP

  • military power, the rule of Xi Jinping, all of which will be seriously tested by the coming demographic crisis.


  • To understand why it's such a threat, and whether something can be done, we need to look a little more closely.


  • As individuals, humans are unpredictable.


  • We don't know what someone will do, or say, or buy, because they don't know.


  • Impulse guides your decision to add guacamole just as it does what college you attend.


  • But, countries don't care about individuals, they care about groups.


  • And the beauty of demography is that groups are predictable.


  • Very.


  • Of course, nothing is certain, theories compete and estimates vary, but it's much easier


  • to guess how many 18-years-olds we'll have in 30 years and in general, what they'll

    30 年後會有多少 18 歲的人口,他們會做什麼

  • be doing than, say, the next three decades of foreign policy or culture.

    比預測未來 30 年的外交或文化政策要容易得多。

  • No country has yet figured out how to manufacture 18 year olds, not even China, and that means population today is a good peek at population tomorrow.

    沒有任何一個國家能做到小孩一出生就 18 歲,中國也一樣,這意味著藉著今日的人口,可以預測未來的人口。

  • When this information is combined with geopolitics or economics, it goes from mildly interesting to downright powerful.


  • Here's what we know about China:


  • Each of these lines is one of its age groups, with babies at the bottom, and elderly at the top.


  • First, are consumers.


  • From 18 to 45, we know people are spending - they're going to school, taking out loans, savingnot so much.

    從 18 歲到 45 歲,我們知道這些人正處於花錢的階段 - 他們要就學、貸款,沒什麼儲蓄。

  • and despite what this group says about millennials, they're very important, because consumer


  • spending is one of the biggest contributors to economic growth.


  • Next, are the money makers.

    接下來,是賺錢的年齡層 (45-65歲)。

  • These people have paid off their debt, now they're saving for retirement.


  • And even though they're a smaller share of the population, they generate most of its income.


  • In the U.S., for example, they alone pay half of all income tax.


  • That makes them, a government's best friend.


  • Finally, at age 65, people are done working, done saving, and, largely, done spending.

    最後,在 65 歲時,從職場退休,該存的錢也存了,並且,大部分是,該花的錢也花完了。

  • What's special about this group, is how quickly and how dramatically it begins:


  • In a single day, a retiree often goes from contributing the highest taxes of their lifetime,


  • to almost nothing, as they slowly collect pensions and social security.


  • For right now, let's ignore the total number of people.


  • China could be bigger like this, or smaller like this,


  • What's important is the balance between these different groups, and that's why this graphic is so useful.


  • It's called a Population Pyramid, because, for most of history, it has been.


  • A constant stream of babies at the bottom, and a small number of deaths with each subsequent year.


  • A good example is Niger, where the average woman has 6.5 children.

    尼日共和國就是一個很好的例子,那裡的女姓平均生 6.5 個小孩。

  • Mortality is very high, making the average age only 15.

    死亡率很高,以致於全國人口平均年齡只有 15 歲。

  • But much of the world no longer looks like a pyramid.


  • In China, it's turning upside down.


  • As you can see, there are two big bulges in its population, here and here.


  • The first is currently in its peak spending years.


  • The second, right in the prime of its high-earning, high-tax-contributing years.


  • It's no wonder China is seeing massive economic growth.


  • But that's what makes a demographic crisis such an ugly one: it happens verrryyyy slowly, and then, all at once.


  • Remember, this huge groups of workers will soon, and quite suddenly retire, as they start waiting for the checks to arrive.


  • But the group responsible for writing those checks, or at least, funding them, is getting smaller and smaller.


  • The problem isn't just financial, A single child must now care for two parents and four grandparents.


  • The United Nations expects China's Dependency Ratio, the number of non-working compared


  • to working-age people, to increase at roughly the same rate as Japan's, whose population

    非就業年齡層的人口數的比率,其成長速度,與自 2011 年起人口開始萎縮的日本,大致相同,

  • began shrinking in 2011, and now sells more adult diapers than infant ones.


  • By 2050, China may have more retirees than all of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.

    到 2050 年,中國的退休人口,可能會超過德國、日本、法國和英國的總和。

  • Worse, the One Child Policy, combined with a cultural preference for males, has created a massive gender imbalance.


  • As a result, it's likely that by 2030, one-fourth of Chinese men in their late 30's will have never married.

    因此,到了 2030 年,中國年近 40 歲的男性中,將有四分之一可能無法結婚。

  • At a minimum, an abundance of forgotten young men will cause some social anxiety.


  • Or possibly, as some experts suggest, serious conflict.


  • It sounds a lot like the plot of a movie.


  • Perhaps, “No Country for Young Men


  • Of course, China is aware of the problem, But it's fighting an inevitable demographic transition.


  • In the beginning, For China, the early 20th century, children are abundant.

    一開始,中國在 20 世紀初,兒童的人口很多。

  • Because: you can only expect a few to survive, you don't have the education or tools for


  • family planning, and because the best way to grow tomatoes is to first grow children.


  • Seriously.


  • For any sleep-deprived parents watching, this will be a shock, but giving birth was once the ultimate productivity hack.


  • Before there were tractors, there were children.


  • And then, people stop dying.


  • It really only takes a few improvements to healthcare for rapid reductions in mortality.


  • And that's how the world grew from 1.6 to 6.1 billion people in one century.

    這就是為什麼在短短一個世紀內,世界人口會從 1.6 億成長到 61 億。

  • That short window where fewer people are dying, but everyone's still having children.


  • But it is just a window, after mortality drops, fertility is right behind it.


  • As industrialization brings rural workers to find jobs in the city, Children become


  • less a utility and more a liability - the kind that screams, and cries, and generates student loan debt.

    反而變成一種累贅 - 養不起小孩的吶喊,哭泣,以及產生學生貸款債務。

  • As the saying goes: the best contraceptive is economic development.


  • The fact that countries like China, the U.S., Italy, and Germany, have this problem, is an otherwise good sign.


  • Dangerously low fertility is actually a side-effect of many good things: increased education, opportunities for women, and healthcare.


  • It's a no-kidding first-world problem.


  • There are many ways to offset the damage, you can increase productivity, taxes, immigration and/or fertility,

    有很多方法可以彌補損害,你可以提高生產力、稅收、移民和 (或) 生育率

  • But it's hard to find a solution that doesn't come with its own set of problems.


  • Many countries, for example, now offer incentives for having children.


  • One of the most generous is Sweden, where couples have the right to 480 days of paid maternity leave PER child.

    其中最慷慨的是瑞典,每對夫妻每生一個小孩,就可享有 480 天的帶薪產假。

  • The downside?


  • Employers are more hesitant to hire young women, who are far more likely to take those days off.


  • And it doesn't help that, even adjusted for inflation, the cost of raising a child has risen for decades.


  • Babies just can't compete with dogs.


  • China has already gone from issuing fines for second children to issuing checks, but people just don't seem to want them.


  • This paper predicts the new two-child policy will only increase China's population from 1.4 to 1.45 billion in 2029.

    本文預測,新的二胎政策,只能在 2029 年將中國的人口從 14 億增加到 14.5 億。

  • Because a person's ideal family size is largely determined by their own, two generations of Chinese now see one child as the norm.


  • Plus, young people are pressured to work longer and harder to keep up with the rising taxes needed to support the older population.


  • None of this means China can't come up with a solution,


  • In fact, it has a few things going for it:


  • As people move to the city, they'll become bigger contributors to the economy,


  • And today's young workers are far better educated than those they're replacing - 11 years of schooling compared to just 6.

    而今天的年輕工人的教育程度,比他們上一代好得太多 - 以前基礎教育是 6 年,現在已延長到 11 年。

  • There's also the bigger trend towards an automation-based economy which doesn't rely on a such a large number of workers.


  • But that too, has the potential for chaos.


  • And even if it does manage to increase fertility, remember that demographic changes are slow.


  • Children born today won't start contributing for at least 18 years.

    今天出生的孩子,至少要到 18 歲才會貢獻出生產力。

  • Whatever the outcome, it'll define China's role in the 21st century.

    不管結果如何,它將界定中國在 21 世纪所扮演的角色。

  • The One-Child Policy will test China's national securityjust as your One-Password Policy could threaten your security.

    一胎化政策將考驗中國的國家安全 … 就像你只用單一組密碼,可能會產生資安威脅一樣。

  • I know, I know, it's easy to use the same password everywhere,


  • But there's just no need to choose between the convenience of a single password and the security of many.


  • With Dashlane, your passwords are kept incredibly safe, but without the hassle you might expect.

    有了 Dashlane,你的密碼會非常安全,而不會有上述的煩惱。

  • The thing I love about Dashlane is that it takes care of everything -

    我喜歡 Dashlane 的一點,就是它各方面都能顧到 -

  • The next time you log in to a site, it remembers so you don't have to,


  • And when you don't have to remember, you might as well make them as secure as possible.


  • If you want it to, Dashlane will log into your accounts, generate new passwords, and update them automatically.

    如果你需要,Dashlane 將登錄您的帳戶,生成新密碼,並自動更新。

  • And now is a great time to sign up, they've added a built-in VPN, and a service which scans the

    現在是註冊的好時機,他們添加了一個內置的 VPN,以及掃描暗網絡的服務

  • dark web to see if your personal information is being bought and sold by hackers.


  • Dashlane syncs between all your devices, and you can get started for free by going to link in the description.

    你可以在不同的裝置上同步使用 Dashlane,從下面的連結進入,你可以開始免費使用。

  • Plus, new users get 10% off premium.

    此外,新用戶可享受 10% 折扣。

  • Thanks to Dashlane for sponsoring this video, and to you for listening.

    感謝 Dashlane 贊助本影片,以及您的收聽。

This video is sponsored by Dashlane.

這支影片由 Dashlane 所贊助。


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