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  • This video is sponsored by Dashlane.

    這支影片由 Dashlane 所贊助。

  • Conveniently store your passwords and get 10% off premium when you sign up with the link in the description.

    使用下面的連結來註冊,可享有簡易的密碼存儲功能,並獲得 10% 的折扣。

  • China is huge.

    中國是巨大的。

  • The kind of huge that's hard to wrap your head around.

    大到你無法想像。

  • Beginning in the 1950's, its population exploded, from an already respectable 500 million to almost three times that today.

    從 1950 年代起,它的人口開始爆炸性激增,從已經相當可觀的 5 億,現在增加到將近 3 倍。

  • which makes it bigger than all of North America, Australia, and Europe combined.

    這使它的人口數,比北美、澳洲、和歐洲的加起來的總和還要多。

  • Its consistent economic growth has made it one of the world's great powers,

    中國持續的經濟成長使它成為世界大國之一

  • with enough military might to claim the strategically important South China Sea,

    它的軍事力量強大,使其在南海具有重要戰略地位

  • and enough influence to begin the most ambitious infrastructure project in history.

    並有足夠的影響力,來展開歷史上最具雄心的基礎建設計畫。

  • A $1 trillion dollar network of ports, pipelines, and railroads across 65 countries.

    價值 1 億美元建構的網絡,包含了港口,油管和鐵路,遍布在 65 個國家。

  • But none of this was inevitable.

    但它也遭遇一些並非無法避免的麻煩。

  • While China rapidly and forcefully industrialized, it faced massive famine and housing shortages.

    在中國迅速而強勁地邁向工業化的同時,它面臨著大規模的飢荒和住房短缺。

  • Its economy needed time to develop, and the world deeply feared overpopulation.

    它的經濟發展需要時間,但全世界都在擔心人口過剩。

  • China's response was the famous One Child Policy, which limited ethnic Chinese families to a single child, with a few exceptions.

    中國採取的措施是著名的一胎化政策,除了少數例外的情況,該政策限制中國人家庭只能生一個小孩。

  • To enforce the law, women were forcefully sterilized and fined for having too many children.

    為了落實這項法律,婦女會因為生了太多孩子,而被強制絕育並被罰款。

  • The problem is: it worked.

    問題是:這個政策奏效了。

  • Or, something did.

    或是產生了後遺症。

  • Historians doubt it prevented all 400 million births claimed by the government,

    歷史學家懷疑,是否真如中國政府所聲稱的,減少了 4 億新生兒

  • but China's total Fertility Rate, the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, has fallen all the way to 1.6, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain its size.

    但中國的總生育率,即女性一生中的平均生育率,卻一路降至 1.6,遠低於維持國家規模所需的 2.1。

  • There simply aren't enough children, and in a few short years, China will begin to shrink.

    出生的孩子數量不足,在短短幾年內,中國將會開始萎縮。

  • The One Child Policy was repealed in 2015, but it won't make a significant difference,

    一胎化政策在 2015 年被廢除,但它不會帶來什麼改變

  • because it only ever sped-up the unavoidable: As nations develop, they choose to have drastically fewer children.

    因為它只會使無法避免的情況加速發生:隨著國家的發展,人民會刻意地選擇少子化。

  • China's problem isn't unique, about half the world lives in a country that is or soon will be in the same position, but it is uniquely big, and the timing, uniquely bad.

    這並不是只有中國才有的問題,世界上大約有一半的國家已經面臨,或是即將面臨同樣的問題,但中國的問題特別嚴重,且發生的時機也特別糟。

  • The story of China in the 21st century is just as much about demographics as it is GDP,

    21 世紀的中國,他的人口數與其 GDP

  • military power, the rule of Xi Jinping, all of which will be seriously tested by the coming demographic crisis.

    軍事力量,和習近平的統治一樣,都即將面臨人口危機的嚴峻考驗。

  • To understand why it's such a threat, and whether something can be done, we need to look a little more closely.

    要了解為什麼人口減少會成為一種威脅,以及是否有補救的辦法,我們就需要做更深入的探討。

  • As individuals, humans are unpredictable.

    基於每個人都是單獨的個體,所以人類的行為是無法預測的。

  • We don't know what someone will do, or say, or buy, because they don't know.

    我們不知道某人將要做什麼,說什麼,或買什麼,因為他們自己也不知道。

  • Impulse guides your decision to add guacamole just as it does what college you attend.

    一時的念頭決定了你要吃的果醬,要讀哪間大學。

  • But, countries don't care about individuals, they care about groups.

    但是,站在國家的立場,它們不關心個人,它們關心的是群體。

  • And the beauty of demography is that groups are predictable.

    人口統計學的好處在於群體是可預測的。

  • Very.

    完全可預測。

  • Of course, nothing is certain, theories compete and estimates vary, but it's much easier

    當然,沒有什麼是絕對的,理論和預測也不盡相同,但是我們要預測

  • to guess how many 18-years-olds we'll have in 30 years and in general, what they'll

    30 年後會有多少 18 歲的人口,他們會做什麼

  • be doing than, say, the next three decades of foreign policy or culture.

    比預測未來 30 年的外交或文化政策要容易得多。

  • No country has yet figured out how to manufacture 18 year olds, not even China, and that means population today is a good peek at population tomorrow.

    沒有任何一個國家能做到小孩一出生就 18 歲,中國也一樣,這意味著藉著今日的人口,可以預測未來的人口。

  • When this information is combined with geopolitics or economics, it goes from mildly interesting to downright powerful.

    當這些資訊與地緣政治或經濟相結合時,它就會從沒什麼人關注,搖身一變成為重大議題。

  • Here's what we know about China:

    以下是我們對中國的了解:

  • Each of these lines is one of its age groups, with babies at the bottom, and elderly at the top.

    圖中每一條線都代表了一個年齡層,底部是嬰兒,頂端是老年人。

  • First, are consumers.

    首先看消費者的年齡層。

  • From 18 to 45, we know people are spending - they're going to school, taking out loans, savingnot so much.

    從 18 歲到 45 歲,我們知道這些人正處於花錢的階段 - 他們要就學、貸款,沒什麼儲蓄。

  • and despite what this group says about millennials, they're very important, because consumer

    不管這個年齡層的人對千禧世代的看法如何,他們是非常重要的一群人

  • spending is one of the biggest contributors to economic growth.

    因為消費者支出是促進經濟增長的最大貢獻者之一。

  • Next, are the money makers.

    接下來,是賺錢的年齡層 (45-65歲)。

  • These people have paid off their debt, now they're saving for retirement.

    這些人已經還清了債務,現在他們正在為退休存錢。

  • And even though they're a smaller share of the population, they generate most of its income.

    雖然他們在人口中所佔比例較小,但大部分的收入卻來自他們。

  • In the U.S., for example, they alone pay half of all income tax.

    例如,在美國,僅僅是這群人就支付了全國半數的所得稅。

  • That makes them, a government's best friend.

    這使得他們成為政府最好的朋友。

  • Finally, at age 65, people are done working, done saving, and, largely, done spending.

    最後,在 65 歲時,從職場退休,該存的錢也存了,並且,大部分是,該花的錢也花完了。

  • What's special about this group, is how quickly and how dramatically it begins:

    這個年齡層的特別之處,在於它快速的崛起和戲劇性的轉變:

  • In a single day, a retiree often goes from contributing the highest taxes of their lifetime,

    在一天之內,退休人員往往從繳納他們一生中最多稅金的時刻

  • to almost nothing, as they slowly collect pensions and social security.

    變成幾乎零繳稅,因為他們開始逐漸地領取退休金和社會保險金。

  • For right now, let's ignore the total number of people.

    現在,讓我們先不去管總人數。

  • China could be bigger like this, or smaller like this,

    中國的人口規模可能會是這麼大,或者小一些像這樣

  • What's important is the balance between these different groups, and that's why this graphic is so useful.

    重要的是這些不同的年齡層要能均衡發展,這就是為什麼這個圖形如此有用。

  • It's called a Population Pyramid, because, for most of history, it has been.

    這個圖形叫做「人口金字塔」,因為幾乎有史以來它就存在了。

  • A constant stream of babies at the bottom, and a small number of deaths with each subsequent year.

    底部有不斷出生的嬰兒,隨後每年都有少量的死亡。

  • A good example is Niger, where the average woman has 6.5 children.

    尼日共和國就是一個很好的例子,那裡的女姓平均生 6.5 個小孩。

  • Mortality is very high, making the average age only 15.

    死亡率很高,以致於全國人口平均年齡只有 15 歲。

  • But much of the world no longer looks like a pyramid.

    但世界上大部分國家的人口分布已經不再像金字塔了。

  • In China, it's turning upside down.

    在中國,它正在變得上下反轉中。

  • As you can see, there are two big bulges in its population, here and here.

    你可以看到,在這兩個部分,人口特別多。

  • The first is currently in its peak spending years.

    第一個是目前處於高消費期的年齡層。

  • The second, right in the prime of its high-earning, high-tax-contributing years.

    第二個,正處於其高收入,高納稅的黃金時期的年齡層。

  • It's no wonder China is seeing massive economic growth.

    難怪中國正在經歷大規模的經濟成長。

  • But that's what makes a demographic crisis such an ugly one: it happens verrryyyy slowly, and then, all at once.

    但這也是造成人口危機如此恐怖的原因:它先是慢慢地慢慢地醞釀,然後,突然就爆發了。

  • Remember, this huge groups of workers will soon, and quite suddenly retire, as they start waiting for the checks to arrive.

    記住,這群龐大的勞工層在等著發薪日的同時,一轉眼突然就要面臨退休了。

  • But the group responsible for writing those checks, or at least, funding them, is getting smaller and smaller.

    但負責發薪的,或至少是出資的這群人,正變得越來越少。

  • The problem isn't just financial, A single child must now care for two parents and four grandparents.

    這不僅僅是個經濟問題,一個孩子現在必須照顧父母,以及四個祖父母。

  • The United Nations expects China's Dependency Ratio, the number of non-working compared

    聯合國預計中國的撫養率,即就業年齡層的人口數與

  • to working-age people, to increase at roughly the same rate as Japan's, whose population

    非就業年齡層的人口數的比率,其成長速度,與自 2011 年起人口開始萎縮的日本,大致相同,

  • began shrinking in 2011, and now sells more adult diapers than infant ones.

    現在日本銷售的成人紙尿褲數量比嬰兒尿布還要多。

  • By 2050, China may have more retirees than all of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.

    到 2050 年,中國的退休人口,可能會超過德國、日本、法國和英國的總和。

  • Worse, the One Child Policy, combined with a cultural preference for males, has created a massive gender imbalance.

    更糟糕的是,一胎化政策,加上重男輕女的文化,造成了巨大的性別失衡。

  • As a result, it's likely that by 2030, one-fourth of Chinese men in their late 30's will have never married.

    因此,到了 2030 年,中國年近 40 歲的男性中,將有四分之一可能無法結婚。

  • At a minimum, an abundance of forgotten young men will cause some social anxiety.

    起碼,為數龐大的失落的年輕人會引起一些社交焦慮。

  • Or possibly, as some experts suggest, serious conflict.

    或者,正如一些專家所說,可能引發嚴重的問題。

  • It sounds a lot like the plot of a movie.

    這聽起來很像電影情節。

  • Perhaps, “No Country for Young Men

    或許,片名可以叫做「年輕人情歸何處」

  • Of course, China is aware of the problem, But it's fighting an inevitable demographic transition.

    當然,中國意識到了這個問題,但它正在對抗的是,無可避免的人口結構的轉變。

  • In the beginning, For China, the early 20th century, children are abundant.

    一開始,中國在 20 世紀初,兒童的人口很多。

  • Because: you can only expect a few to survive, you don't have the education or tools for

    但是他們中只有少數可以存活下來,民眾缺乏教育或工具來推行家庭計畫

  • family planning, and because the best way to grow tomatoes is to first grow children.

    想要有收成,就先多生點孩子吧!

  • Seriously.

    我是講真的。

  • For any sleep-deprived parents watching, this will be a shock, but giving birth was once the ultimate productivity hack.

    對精疲力盡的父母而言,會很震驚,因為生育小孩一度是解決生產力的良方。

  • Before there were tractors, there were children.

    先有孩子,才有人力來耕種。

  • And then, people stop dying.

    接著,死亡率下降了。

  • It really only takes a few improvements to healthcare for rapid reductions in mortality.

    只要在醫療保健上稍作改進,就可以快速降低死亡率。

  • And that's how the world grew from 1.6 to 6.1 billion people in one century.

    這就是為什麼在短短一個世紀內,世界人口會從 1.6 億成長到 61 億。

  • That short window where fewer people are dying, but everyone's still having children.

    在這段期間死亡人數降低,但是小孩還是不斷地出生。

  • But it is just a window, after mortality drops, fertility is right behind it.

    但這只是一段期間,接著死亡率下降之後,生育率也跟著下降

  • As industrialization brings rural workers to find jobs in the city, Children become

    工業化的結果造成農村工人到城市尋找工作,生小孩變得不那麼實用

  • less a utility and more a liability - the kind that screams, and cries, and generates student loan debt.

    反而變成一種累贅 - 養不起小孩的吶喊,哭泣,以及產生學生貸款債務。

  • As the saying goes: the best contraceptive is economic development.

    俗話說的好:最佳的避孕良方就是經濟發展。

  • The fact that countries like China, the U.S., Italy, and Germany, have this problem, is an otherwise good sign.

    事實上,像中國、美國、義大利和德國都有這樣的問題,但這也有好的一面。

  • Dangerously low fertility is actually a side-effect of many good things: increased education, opportunities for women, and healthcare.

    低生育率,實際上也有許多意想不到的好處:增加的受教育機會,婦女就業機會,和醫療保健的照顧。

  • It's a no-kidding first-world problem.

    這都是先進國家才有的問題。

  • There are many ways to offset the damage, you can increase productivity, taxes, immigration and/or fertility,

    有很多方法可以彌補損害,你可以提高生產力、稅收、移民和 (或) 生育率

  • But it's hard to find a solution that doesn't come with its own set of problems.

    但很難找到一個完全沒有副作用的解決方案。

  • Many countries, for example, now offer incentives for having children.

    例如,許多國家現在都提供鼓勵生育的獎勵。

  • One of the most generous is Sweden, where couples have the right to 480 days of paid maternity leave PER child.

    其中最慷慨的是瑞典,每對夫妻每生一個小孩,就可享有 480 天的帶薪產假。

  • The downside?

    缺點呢?

  • Employers are more hesitant to hire young women, who are far more likely to take those days off.

    雇主更不願意僱用年輕女性,因為她們更可能請產假。

  • And it doesn't help that, even adjusted for inflation, the cost of raising a child has risen for decades.

    即使根據通貨膨脹調薪,也無濟於事,扶養一個孩子的成本,幾十年来一直在上升。

  • Babies just can't compete with dogs.

    養小孩畢竟不是養狗。

  • China has already gone from issuing fines for second children to issuing checks, but people just don't seem to want them.

    中國已經從生第二胎要罰款改為給予補助,但人民似乎並不領情。

  • This paper predicts the new two-child policy will only increase China's population from 1.4 to 1.45 billion in 2029.

    本文預測,新的二胎政策,只能在 2029 年將中國的人口從 14 億增加到 14.5 億。

  • Because a person's ideal family size is largely determined by their own, two generations of Chinese now see one child as the norm.

    因為每個人理想的家庭規模,很大程度上取決於他們自己,所以兩代的中國人,現在已經將生一個孩子視為常態。

  • Plus, young people are pressured to work longer and harder to keep up with the rising taxes needed to support the older population.

    此外,年輕人面臨著更長時間,更努力工作的壓力,才能支付為照顧老年人而增加的稅賦。

  • None of this means China can't come up with a solution,

    這些都不代表中國無法找到解決方案

  • In fact, it has a few things going for it:

    事實上,中國有一些事情要做:

  • As people move to the city, they'll become bigger contributors to the economy,

    隨著人們遷移到城市,他們將成為經濟的更大貢獻者

  • And today's young workers are far better educated than those they're replacing - 11 years of schooling compared to just 6.

    而今天的年輕工人的教育程度,比他們上一代好得太多 - 以前基礎教育是 6 年,現在已延長到 11 年。

  • There's also the bigger trend towards an automation-based economy which doesn't rely on a such a large number of workers.

    還有一個更大的趨勢是,自動化經濟不需要依賴大量工人。

  • But that too, has the potential for chaos.

    但這也可能導致混亂。

  • And even if it does manage to increase fertility, remember that demographic changes are slow.

    即使生育率能提高,也要記住人口結構的改變是緩慢的。

  • Children born today won't start contributing for at least 18 years.

    今天出生的孩子,至少要到 18 歲才會貢獻出生產力。

  • Whatever the outcome, it'll define China's role in the 21st century.

    不管結果如何,它將界定中國在 21 世纪所扮演的角色。

  • The One-Child Policy will test China's national securityjust as your One-Password Policy could threaten your security.

    一胎化政策將考驗中國的國家安全 … 就像你只用單一組密碼,可能會產生資安威脅一樣。

  • I know, I know, it's easy to use the same password everywhere,

    我知道,我知道,單一組密碼使用上很方便

  • But there's just no need to choose between the convenience of a single password and the security of many.

    但是沒必要在單一組密碼的便利性,和多組密碼的安全性之間做出選擇。

  • With Dashlane, your passwords are kept incredibly safe, but without the hassle you might expect.

    有了 Dashlane,你的密碼會非常安全,而不會有上述的煩惱。

  • The thing I love about Dashlane is that it takes care of everything -

    我喜歡 Dashlane 的一點,就是它各方面都能顧到 -

  • The next time you log in to a site, it remembers so you don't have to,

    下次登錄某個網站時,它會記住你的密碼,所以你不必記。

  • And when you don't have to remember, you might as well make them as secure as possible.

    你不用去記它,你卻仍然可以保證它們的安全性。

  • If you want it to, Dashlane will log into your accounts, generate new passwords, and update them automatically.

    如果你需要,Dashlane 將登錄您的帳戶,生成新密碼,並自動更新。

  • And now is a great time to sign up, they've added a built-in VPN, and a service which scans the

    現在是註冊的好時機,他們添加了一個內置的 VPN,以及掃描暗網絡的服務

  • dark web to see if your personal information is being bought and sold by hackers.

    檢查你的個人信息是否有被駭客盜去交易。

  • Dashlane syncs between all your devices, and you can get started for free by going to link in the description.

    你可以在不同的裝置上同步使用 Dashlane,從下面的連結進入,你可以開始免費使用。

  • Plus, new users get 10% off premium.

    此外,新用戶可享受 10% 折扣。

  • Thanks to Dashlane for sponsoring this video, and to you for listening.

    感謝 Dashlane 贊助本影片,以及您的收聽。

This video is sponsored by Dashlane.

這支影片由 Dashlane 所贊助。

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 中國 人口 年齡層 密碼 一胎化 政策

為何中國終結了一胎化政策?(Why China Ended its One-Child Policy)

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    Samuel 發佈於 2018 年 10 月 25 日
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