Conveniently store your passwords and get 10% off premium when you sign up with the link in the description.

使用下面的連結來註冊，可享有簡易的密碼存儲功能，並獲得 10％ 的折扣。

China is huge.

中國是巨大的。

The kind of huge that's hard to wrap your head around.

大到你無法想像。

Beginning in the 1950's, its population exploded, from an already respectable 500 million to almost three times that today.

從 1950 年代起，它的人口開始爆炸性激增，從已經相當可觀的 5 億，現在增加到將近 3 倍。

which makes it bigger than all of North America, Australia, and Europe combined.

這使它的人口數，比北美、澳洲、和歐洲的加起來的總和還要多。

Its consistent economic growth has made it one of the world's great powers,

中國持續的經濟成長使它成為世界大國之一

with enough military might to claim the strategically important South China Sea,

它的軍事力量強大，使其在南海具有重要戰略地位

and enough influence to begin the most ambitious infrastructure project in history.

並有足夠的影響力，來展開歷史上最具雄心的基礎建設計畫。

A $1 trillion dollar network of ports, pipelines, and railroads across 65 countries.

價值 1 億美元建構的網絡，包含了港口，油管和鐵路，遍布在 65 個國家。

But none of this was inevitable.

但它也遭遇一些並非無法避免的麻煩。

While China rapidly and forcefully industrialized, it faced massive famine and housing shortages.

在中國迅速而強勁地邁向工業化的同時，它面臨著大規模的飢荒和住房短缺。

Its economy needed time to develop, and the world deeply feared overpopulation.

它的經濟發展需要時間，但全世界都在擔心人口過剩。

China's response was the famous One Child Policy, which limited ethnic Chinese families to a single child, with a few exceptions.

中國採取的措施是著名的一胎化政策，除了少數例外的情況，該政策限制中國人家庭只能生一個小孩。

To enforce the law, women were forcefully sterilized and fined for having too many children.

為了落實這項法律，婦女會因為生了太多孩子，而被強制絕育並被罰款。

The problem is: it worked.

問題是：這個政策奏效了。

Or, something did.

或是產生了後遺症。

Historians doubt it prevented all 400 million births claimed by the government,

歷史學家懷疑，是否真如中國政府所聲稱的，減少了 4 億新生兒

but China's total Fertility Rate, the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, has fallen all the way to 1.6, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain its size.

但中國的總生育率，即女性一生中的平均生育率，卻一路降至 1.6，遠低於維持國家規模所需的 2.1。

There simply aren't enough children, and in a few short years, China will begin to shrink.

出生的孩子數量不足，在短短幾年內，中國將會開始萎縮。

The One Child Policy was repealed in 2015, but it won't make a significant difference,

一胎化政策在 2015 年被廢除，但它不會帶來什麼改變

because it only ever sped-up the unavoidable: As nations develop, they choose to have drastically fewer children.

因為它只會使無法避免的情況加速發生：隨著國家的發展，人民會刻意地選擇少子化。

China's problem isn't unique, about half the world lives in a country that is or soon will be in the same position, but it is uniquely big, and the timing, uniquely bad.

這並不是只有中國才有的問題，世界上大約有一半的國家已經面臨，或是即將面臨同樣的問題，但中國的問題特別嚴重，且發生的時機也特別糟。

The story of China in the 21st century is just as much about demographics as it is GDP,

21 世紀的中國，他的人口數與其 GDP

military power, the rule of Xi Jinping, all of which will be seriously tested by the coming demographic crisis.

軍事力量，和習近平的統治一樣，都即將面臨人口危機的嚴峻考驗。

To understand why it's such a threat, and whether something can be done, we need to look a little more closely.

要了解為什麼人口減少會成為一種威脅，以及是否有補救的辦法，我們就需要做更深入的探討。

As individuals, humans are unpredictable.

基於每個人都是單獨的個體，所以人類的行為是無法預測的。

We don't know what someone will do, or say, or buy, because they don't know.

我們不知道某人將要做什麼，說什麼，或買什麼，因為他們自己也不知道。

Impulse guides your decision to add guacamole just as it does what college you attend.

一時的念頭決定了你要吃的果醬，要讀哪間大學。

But, countries don't care about individuals, they care about groups.

但是，站在國家的立場，它們不關心個人，它們關心的是群體。

And the beauty of demography is that groups are predictable.

人口統計學的好處在於群體是可預測的。

Very.

完全可預測。

Of course, nothing is certain, theories compete and estimates vary, but it's much easier

當然，沒有什麼是絕對的，理論和預測也不盡相同，但是我們要預測

to guess how many 18-years-olds we'll have in 30 years and in general, what they'll

30 年後會有多少 18 歲的人口，他們會做什麼

be doing than, say, the next three decades of foreign policy or culture.

比預測未來 30 年的外交或文化政策要容易得多。

No country has yet figured out how to manufacture 18 year olds, not even China, and that means population today is a good peek at population tomorrow.

沒有任何一個國家能做到小孩一出生就 18 歲，中國也一樣，這意味著藉著今日的人口，可以預測未來的人口。

When this information is combined with geopolitics or economics, it goes from mildly interesting to downright powerful.

當這些資訊與地緣政治或經濟相結合時，它就會從沒什麼人關注，搖身一變成為重大議題。

Here's what we know about China:

以下是我們對中國的了解：

Each of these lines is one of its age groups, with babies at the bottom, and elderly at the top.

圖中每一條線都代表了一個年齡層，底部是嬰兒，頂端是老年人。

First, are consumers.

首先看消費者的年齡層。

From 18 to 45, we know people are spending - they're going to school, taking out loans, saving… not so much.

從 18 歲到 45 歲，我們知道這些人正處於花錢的階段 - 他們要就學、貸款，沒什麼儲蓄。

and despite what this group says about millennials, they're very important, because consumer

不管這個年齡層的人對千禧世代的看法如何，他們是非常重要的一群人

spending is one of the biggest contributors to economic growth.

因為消費者支出是促進經濟增長的最大貢獻者之一。

Next, are the money makers.

接下來，是賺錢的年齡層 (45-65歲)。

These people have paid off their debt, now they're saving for retirement.

這些人已經還清了債務，現在他們正在為退休存錢。

And even though they're a smaller share of the population, they generate most of its income.

雖然他們在人口中所佔比例較小，但大部分的收入卻來自他們。

In the U.S., for example, they alone pay half of all income tax.

例如，在美國，僅僅是這群人就支付了全國半數的所得稅。

That makes them, a government's best friend.

這使得他們成為政府最好的朋友。

Finally, at age 65, people are done working, done saving, and, largely, done spending.

最後，在 65 歲時，從職場退休，該存的錢也存了，並且，大部分是，該花的錢也花完了。

What's special about this group, is how quickly and how dramatically it begins:

這個年齡層的特別之處，在於它快速的崛起和戲劇性的轉變：

In a single day, a retiree often goes from contributing the highest taxes of their lifetime,

在一天之內，退休人員往往從繳納他們一生中最多稅金的時刻

to almost nothing, as they slowly collect pensions and social security.

變成幾乎零繳稅，因為他們開始逐漸地領取退休金和社會保險金。

For right now, let's ignore the total number of people.

現在，讓我們先不去管總人數。

China could be bigger like this, or smaller like this,

中國的人口規模可能會是這麼大，或者小一些像這樣

What's important is the balance between these different groups, and that's why this graphic is so useful.

重要的是這些不同的年齡層要能均衡發展，這就是為什麼這個圖形如此有用。

It's called a Population Pyramid, because, for most of history, it has been.

這個圖形叫做「人口金字塔」，因為幾乎有史以來它就存在了。

A constant stream of babies at the bottom, and a small number of deaths with each subsequent year.

底部有不斷出生的嬰兒，隨後每年都有少量的死亡。

A good example is Niger, where the average woman has 6.5 children.

尼日共和國就是一個很好的例子，那裡的女姓平均生 6.5 個小孩。

Mortality is very high, making the average age only 15.

死亡率很高，以致於全國人口平均年齡只有 15 歲。

But much of the world no longer looks like a pyramid.

但世界上大部分國家的人口分布已經不再像金字塔了。

In China, it's turning upside down.

在中國，它正在變得上下反轉中。

As you can see, there are two big bulges in its population, here and here.

你可以看到，在這兩個部分，人口特別多。

The first is currently in its peak spending years.

第一個是目前處於高消費期的年齡層。

The second, right in the prime of its high-earning, high-tax-contributing years.

第二個，正處於其高收入，高納稅的黃金時期的年齡層。

It's no wonder China is seeing massive economic growth.

難怪中國正在經歷大規模的經濟成長。

But that's what makes a demographic crisis such an ugly one: it happens verrryyyy slowly, and then, all at once.

但這也是造成人口危機如此恐怖的原因：它先是慢慢地慢慢地醞釀，然後，突然就爆發了。

Remember, this huge groups of workers will soon, and quite suddenly retire, as they start waiting for the checks to arrive.

記住，這群龐大的勞工層在等著發薪日的同時，一轉眼突然就要面臨退休了。

But the group responsible for writing those checks, or at least, funding them, is getting smaller and smaller.

但負責發薪的，或至少是出資的這群人，正變得越來越少。

The problem isn't just financial, A single child must now care for two parents and four grandparents.

這不僅僅是個經濟問題，一個孩子現在必須照顧父母，以及四個祖父母。

The United Nations expects China's Dependency Ratio, the number of non-working compared

聯合國預計中國的撫養率，即就業年齡層的人口數與

to working-age people, to increase at roughly the same rate as Japan's, whose population

非就業年齡層的人口數的比率，其成長速度，與自 2011 年起人口開始萎縮的日本，大致相同，

began shrinking in 2011, and now sells more adult diapers than infant ones.

現在日本銷售的成人紙尿褲數量比嬰兒尿布還要多。

By 2050, China may have more retirees than all of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.

到 2050 年，中國的退休人口，可能會超過德國、日本、法國和英國的總和。

Worse, the One Child Policy, combined with a cultural preference for males, has created a massive gender imbalance.

更糟糕的是，一胎化政策，加上重男輕女的文化，造成了巨大的性別失衡。

As a result, it's likely that by 2030, one-fourth of Chinese men in their late 30's will have never married.

因此，到了 2030 年，中國年近 40 歲的男性中，將有四分之一可能無法結婚。

At a minimum, an abundance of forgotten young men will cause some social anxiety.

起碼，為數龐大的失落的年輕人會引起一些社交焦慮。

Or possibly, as some experts suggest, serious conflict.

或者，正如一些專家所說，可能引發嚴重的問題。

It sounds a lot like the plot of a movie.

這聽起來很像電影情節。

Perhaps, “No Country for Young Men”

或許，片名可以叫做「年輕人情歸何處」

Of course, China is aware of the problem, But it's fighting an inevitable demographic transition.

當然，中國意識到了這個問題，但它正在對抗的是，無可避免的人口結構的轉變。

In the beginning, For China, the early 20th century, children are abundant.

一開始，中國在 20 世紀初，兒童的人口很多。

Because: you can only expect a few to survive, you don't have the education or tools for

但是他們中只有少數可以存活下來，民眾缺乏教育或工具來推行家庭計畫

family planning, and because the best way to grow tomatoes is to first grow children.

想要有收成，就先多生點孩子吧！

Seriously.

我是講真的。

For any sleep-deprived parents watching, this will be a shock, but giving birth was once the ultimate productivity hack.

對精疲力盡的父母而言，會很震驚，因為生育小孩一度是解決生產力的良方。

Before there were tractors, there were children.

先有孩子，才有人力來耕種。

And then, people stop dying.

接著，死亡率下降了。

It really only takes a few improvements to healthcare for rapid reductions in mortality.

只要在醫療保健上稍作改進，就可以快速降低死亡率。

And that's how the world grew from 1.6 to 6.1 billion people in one century.

這就是為什麼在短短一個世紀內，世界人口會從 1.6 億成長到 61 億。

That short window where fewer people are dying, but everyone's still having children.

在這段期間死亡人數降低，但是小孩還是不斷地出生。

But it is just a window, after mortality drops, fertility is right behind it.

但這只是一段期間，接著死亡率下降之後，生育率也跟著下降

As industrialization brings rural workers to find jobs in the city, Children become

工業化的結果造成農村工人到城市尋找工作，生小孩變得不那麼實用

less a utility and more a liability - the kind that screams, and cries, and generates student loan debt.

反而變成一種累贅 - 養不起小孩的吶喊，哭泣，以及產生學生貸款債務。

As the saying goes: the best contraceptive is economic development.

俗話說的好：最佳的避孕良方就是經濟發展。

The fact that countries like China, the U.S., Italy, and Germany, have this problem, is an otherwise good sign.

事實上，像中國、美國、義大利和德國都有這樣的問題，但這也有好的一面。

Dangerously low fertility is actually a side-effect of many good things: increased education, opportunities for women, and healthcare.

低生育率，實際上也有許多意想不到的好處：增加的受教育機會，婦女就業機會，和醫療保健的照顧。

It's a no-kidding first-world problem.

這都是先進國家才有的問題。

There are many ways to offset the damage, you can increase productivity, taxes, immigration and/or fertility,

有很多方法可以彌補損害，你可以提高生產力、稅收、移民和 (或) 生育率

But it's hard to find a solution that doesn't come with its own set of problems.

但很難找到一個完全沒有副作用的解決方案。

Many countries, for example, now offer incentives for having children.

例如，許多國家現在都提供鼓勵生育的獎勵。

One of the most generous is Sweden, where couples have the right to 480 days of paid maternity leave PER child.

其中最慷慨的是瑞典，每對夫妻每生一個小孩，就可享有 480 天的帶薪產假。

The downside?

缺點呢？

Employers are more hesitant to hire young women, who are far more likely to take those days off.

雇主更不願意僱用年輕女性，因為她們更可能請產假。

And it doesn't help that, even adjusted for inflation, the cost of raising a child has risen for decades.

即使根據通貨膨脹調薪，也無濟於事，扶養一個孩子的成本，幾十年来一直在上升。

Babies just can't compete with dogs.

養小孩畢竟不是養狗。

China has already gone from issuing fines for second children to issuing checks, but people just don't seem to want them.

中國已經從生第二胎要罰款改為給予補助，但人民似乎並不領情。

This paper predicts the new two-child policy will only increase China's population from 1.4 to 1.45 billion in 2029.

本文預測，新的二胎政策，只能在 2029 年將中國的人口從 14 億增加到 14.5 億。

Because a person's ideal family size is largely determined by their own, two generations of Chinese now see one child as the norm.

因為每個人理想的家庭規模，很大程度上取決於他們自己，所以兩代的中國人，現在已經將生一個孩子視為常態。

Plus, young people are pressured to work longer and harder to keep up with the rising taxes needed to support the older population.

此外，年輕人面臨著更長時間，更努力工作的壓力，才能支付為照顧老年人而增加的稅賦。

None of this means China can't come up with a solution,

這些都不代表中國無法找到解決方案

In fact, it has a few things going for it:

事實上，中國有一些事情要做：

As people move to the city, they'll become bigger contributors to the economy,

隨著人們遷移到城市，他們將成為經濟的更大貢獻者

And today's young workers are far better educated than those they're replacing - 11 years of schooling compared to just 6.

而今天的年輕工人的教育程度，比他們上一代好得太多 - 以前基礎教育是 6 年，現在已延長到 11 年。

There's also the bigger trend towards an automation-based economy which doesn't rely on a such a large number of workers.

還有一個更大的趨勢是，自動化經濟不需要依賴大量工人。

But that too, has the potential for chaos.

但這也可能導致混亂。

And even if it does manage to increase fertility, remember that demographic changes are slow.

即使生育率能提高，也要記住人口結構的改變是緩慢的。

Children born today won't start contributing for at least 18 years.

今天出生的孩子，至少要到 18 歲才會貢獻出生產力。

Whatever the outcome, it'll define China's role in the 21st century.

不管結果如何，它將界定中國在 21 世纪所扮演的角色。

The One-Child Policy will test China's national security… just as your One-Password Policy could threaten your security.

一胎化政策將考驗中國的國家安全 … 就像你只用單一組密碼，可能會產生資安威脅一樣。

I know, I know, it's easy to use the same password everywhere,

我知道，我知道，單一組密碼使用上很方便

But there's just no need to choose between the convenience of a single password and the security of many.

但是沒必要在單一組密碼的便利性，和多組密碼的安全性之間做出選擇。

With Dashlane, your passwords are kept incredibly safe, but without the hassle you might expect.

有了 Dashlane，你的密碼會非常安全，而不會有上述的煩惱。

The thing I love about Dashlane is that it takes care of everything -

我喜歡 Dashlane 的一點，就是它各方面都能顧到 -

The next time you log in to a site, it remembers so you don't have to,

下次登錄某個網站時，它會記住你的密碼，所以你不必記。

And when you don't have to remember, you might as well make them as secure as possible.

你不用去記它，你卻仍然可以保證它們的安全性。

If you want it to, Dashlane will log into your accounts, generate new passwords, and update them automatically.

如果你需要，Dashlane 將登錄您的帳戶，生成新密碼，並自動更新。

And now is a great time to sign up, they've added a built-in VPN, and a service which scans the

現在是註冊的好時機，他們添加了一個內置的 VPN，以及掃描暗網絡的服務

dark web to see if your personal information is being bought and sold by hackers.

檢查你的個人信息是否有被駭客盜去交易。

Dashlane syncs between all your devices, and you can get started for free by going to link in the description.

你可以在不同的裝置上同步使用 Dashlane，從下面的連結進入，你可以開始免費使用。

Plus, new users get 10% off premium.

此外，新用戶可享受 10% 折扣。

Thanks to Dashlane for sponsoring this video, and to you for listening.

感謝 Dashlane 贊助本影片，以及您的收聽。