The first 200 to use the link in the description get 20% off their annual premium subscription.

前200名使用描述中的鏈接。 獲得其年度高級訂閱20%的折扣。

On September 4th, 2018, Amazon became a 1 trillion dollar company.

2018年9月4日，亞馬遜成為1 萬億美元的公司。

That's twice what it was a year ago, and only a month after Apple first broke the record.

這是一年前的兩倍，而且。 在蘋果首次打破紀錄後僅一個月。

Now, if your name rhymes with Real deGrasse Bison, you might point out that 1 trillion

如果你的名字和Real deGrasse押韻的話。 野牛，你可以指出，1萬億。

is a pretty arbitrary milestone, that new years is fake, leap day is a lie, and the

是一個相當任意的里程碑，新的。 年是假的，閏日是騙人的，而。

phrase “time flies” is scientifically inaccurate.

光陰似箭 "這句話在科學上是有道理的。 不準確。

But it's still a good excuse to stop and ask, Why?

但它仍然是一個很好的藉口，停止和。 問，為什麼？

Why is Amazon valued higher than Walmart, Samsung, Netflix, and Disney put together?

為什麼亞馬遜的估值比沃爾瑪高。 三星、Netflix和迪士尼放在一起？

First, Jeff Bezos thinks only in the long-term.

首先，傑夫-貝佐斯只從長遠考慮。

And because investors understand this, the company can act in ways that only make sense

因為投資者明白這一點，所以 公司可以只做有意義的事

three, five, ten years in the future.

未來三年、五年、十年。

Second, they focus more on customers than the competition.

其次，他們更注重客戶，而不是 的競爭。

The goal is building loyalty, even if it means sacrificing profit today.

目標是建立忠誠度，即使這意味著 犧牲今天的利潤。

And finally, with remarkable scale comes remarkable efficiency.

最後，有了顯著的規模就有了顯著的 效率。

When you ship billions of packages a year, you can buy your own airplanes, start your

當你每年運送數十億個包裹時。 你可以買你自己的飛機，開始你的

own shipping company, and lower your prices.

自己的運輸公司，降低自己的價格。

But there's another reason Amazon has such an advantage: data.

但亞馬遜有這樣的另一個原因是 一個優勢：數據。

No other website even comes close to the number of sales made with Amazon.

其他網站甚至沒有接近這個數字 與亞馬遜合作銷售的比例。

Not Ebay, not Apple, not even Walmart.

不是Ebay，不是蘋果，甚至不是沃爾瑪。

The battle seems already won.

這場戰爭似乎已經贏了。

Unlike a Costco or a Staples, companies can't really choose whether to sell on Amazon, only

與Costco或Staples不同，企業不能。 真正選擇是否在亞馬遜上銷售，只有

whether they make the profit.

他們是否賺到了利潤。

Say you're shopping for a pair of tennis shoes,

假設你正在選購一雙網球鞋，那麼你就會發現，這雙網球鞋是你的。 鞋子。

Most people would click buy, receive it in the mail, and never question who it came from.

大多數人都會點擊購買，收到它在 郵件，從不質疑它是誰寄來的。

It says Nike, the pictures are real, it even has the logo.

它說耐克，圖片是真實的，它甚至。 有標誌。

But often it's actually a reseller, who buys in bulk, adds a margin, and sells on

但很多時候其實是經銷商，他 大批量採購，加收保證金，然後在網上銷售。

the same official-looking product page.

同樣的官方外觀產品頁面。

Sometimes it's not even the real product.

有時甚至不是真正的產品。

Knockoffs are everywhere.

仿冒品隨處可見。

In part, because Amazon isn't really incentivized to police them.

部分原因是亞馬遜並沒有真正的激勵措施 監管他們。

To you and me, it doesn't matter who the seller is if the price is right.

對你和我來說，誰是誰並不重要。 賣家是如果價格合適。

But for Nike, it's everything.

但對於耐克來說，這就是一切。

Brands can either refuse to sell on Amazon and watch other people do it for them,

品牌可以拒絕在亞馬遜上銷售 並看著別人為他們做。

Or they can embrace it, and yes, give them a cut of the profit, but at least see some

或者他們可以接受它，是的，給他們。 分一杯羹，但至少能看到一些

of it.

的。

So, you can guess which one they choose.

所以，你可以猜測他們選擇哪一個。

Either way, Amazon wins.

無論如何，亞馬遜都是贏家。

In theory, a company the size of Nike doesn't need them, they have a recognizable brand,

理論上來說，像耐克這樣規模的公司不 需要他們，他們有一個公認的品牌。

and they can easily sell on their own website.

而且他們可以輕鬆地在自己的網站上銷售。

But even they submit to Amazon, who, at this point, isn't so much a player as the game

但即使是他們也會向亞馬遜屈服，而亞馬遜，在這一 點，並不是玩家，而是遊戲。

itself,

本身。

There's a whole industry around making sure your product shows up when someone searches

有一個完整的行業，圍繞確保 當有人搜索您的產品時，您的產品會出現在

for it, and you get picked as the seller when someone clicks “buy”.

為它，而你被選為賣方，當。 有人點擊 "購買"。

It's called “Winning the buy box”, in fact, here's a whole book about it, which

這就是所謂的 "贏取買櫝還珠"，在。 事實上，這裡有一整本關於它的書，其中

you can purchase, you guessed it, on Amazon.

你可以購買，你猜對了，在亞馬遜上。

Now, controlling 49% of online sales is impressive, But here's the catch: Online is only one-tenth

現在，控制了49%的在線銷售，令人印象深刻。 但這裡有一個問題。網上只有十分之一

of retail,

的零售。

It's a big slice of a relatively small pie.

這是一塊比較小的餅中的大餅。

To really prove its trillion-dollar valuation, Amazon needs to beat Walmart, at its game.

為了真正證明其萬億的估值。 亞馬遜需要打敗沃爾瑪，在它的遊戲。

And that's harder than it looks.

而這比看起來更難。

This is Amazon's revenue from retail, this is Costco's, and this is Walmart's.

這是亞馬遜從零售業獲得的收入，這。 是好市多的，而這是沃爾瑪的。

90% of Americans live within 15 miles of its doors.

90%的美國人生活在其15英里以內 門。

You could drive twenty-six hundred miles through Canada, and take a ferry to the remote Kodiak

你可以開車2600英里穿過 加拿大，然後乘渡輪到偏遠的科迪亞克。

Island, but you still haven't escaped the land of low prices and… poor fashion choices.

島，但你還是沒有逃過。 低價的土地和... 糟糕的時尚選擇。

Not even if you're Pitbull.

即使你是Pitbull也不行。

Whole Foods gives Amazon a 500 store head start, but nothing compared to Walmart's

全食代給亞馬遜500家店頭 開始，但比起沃爾瑪的

eleven thousand.

一萬一千。

And yet, I'd still bet on Amazon.

然而，我還是會在亞馬遜身上下注。

Here's why.

這就是為什麼。

The average grocery store has a profit margin of about 1%.

一般雜貨店的利潤率為 的1%左右。

The slightest change in efficiency can be the difference between failing and thriving.

效率的細微變化都會 失敗與興盛的區別。

They need to know what customers are buying, how much they're willing to spend, and when

他們需要知道客戶在買什麼。 他們願意花多少錢，什麼時候花？

they're vulnerable to advertising.

他們容易受到廣告的影響。

This is why stores are so eager to sign you up for their rewards program, are you sure

這也是為什麼店家那麼想籤你的原因了 為他們的獎勵計劃，你是否確定

you want to pass up on this 5% cash back opportunity of a lifetime?

你想錯過這個5%的現金返還機會嗎？ 一輩子的事？

Because all of a sudden you're the perfect customer, voluntarily identifying yourself

因為突然間你就成了完美的。 客戶，自願表明自己的身份

at the cash register, allowing them to link your purchases together and slowly build a

在收銀臺，允許他們連接 你的採購一起，慢慢建立一個

profile.

概況：

No individual receipt is all that valuable, but together, they can start to see trends

沒有個人的收據那麼值錢。 但一起，他們可以開始看到趨勢

and even make predictions.

甚至進行預測。

A few years ago, Target made the news for doing exactly this:

幾年前，Target公司因為以下原因而成為新聞焦點 正是這樣做的。

A man from Minnesota drove to the store, demanding to see a manager,

一名來自明尼蘇達州的男子開車來到店裡，要求。 去見經理。

His teenage daughter was receiving coupon after coupon for baby clothes and diapers

他的十幾歲的女兒正在接受優惠券 優惠券後的嬰兒服裝和尿布

and strollers - what were they trying to encourage?

和嬰兒車--他們想鼓勵什麼？

So Target called him a few days later to apologize, but by then, he had his own apologizing to

所以Target在幾天後給他打電話道歉。 但那時，他已經有了自己的歉意。

do, his daughter was pregnant, and Target knew before he did.

做，他的女兒懷孕了，和目標 在他之前就知道了。

You might say they hit the bullseye.

你可以說他們擊中了靶心。

The other benefit of all this data is predictive stocking, not the creepy kind, well, depending

所有這些數據的另一個好處是預測性的。 長襪，不是那種令人毛骨悚然的，嗯，這取決於

on who you ask, It's being able to order and ship products in anticipation of their

看你問的是誰，它是能夠命令 並在預期的時間內發貨

demand.

需求。

Walmart began doing this back in 2004, Guessing which items it should order in preparation

沃爾瑪早在2004年就開始這樣做了，猜猜看。 應訂購哪些物品以備不時之需

for Hurricane Frances.

颶風 "弗朗西絲"。

The answer was strawberry pop-tarts, of course

答案當然是草莓餡餅了

Today, this isn't just handy information, it's an essential part of the business model.

如今，這不僅僅是方便的資訊。 它是商業模式的重要組成部分。

Consumers expect faster delivery and wider availability.

消費者期待更快的交付和更廣泛的 是否有貨。

As free shipping becomes 2-day shipping… becomes 2-hour shipping, the dynamics of retail

由於免費送貨變成了2天送貨... ... 變成了2小時發貨，零售業的發展動態

change dramatically.

變化很大。

There isn't enough time to ship your bananas from Colombia, they have to be waiting in

沒有足夠的時間來運送你的香蕉。 從哥倫比亞來的人，他們必須等待在

a local warehouse before you decide to buy, but without wasting valuable space.

在你決定購買之前，先到當地的倉庫看看。 但又不浪費寶貴的空間。

And that means predicting which items will be ordered and when.

而這意味著預測哪些項目將 被命令和何時。

Here Amazon has the advantage, It doesn't just know what products you buy but what device

在這裡，亞馬遜有優勢，它並不。 只知道買什麼產品，卻不知道買什麼設備

you use, what you search for, how long you spend looking, all that and a whole lot more,

你使用什麼，你搜索什麼，你用了多長時間？ 花費尋找，所有這些，還有很多。

at much bigger scale than someone like Walmart.

在規模上比沃爾瑪等人大得多。

It doesn't have to guess how shoppers behave, it knows.

它不必猜測購物者的行為。 它知道。

Of course, there's also a downside.

當然，也有弊端。

Amazon has always been the magic way to make stuff show up at your door.

亞馬遜一直以來都是以神奇的方式讓 的東西出現在你的門。

Walmart, well, controversial.

沃爾瑪，嗯，有爭議。

“Criticism of Walmart” isn't exactly the shortest Wikipedia page.

"批判沃爾瑪 "並不完全是 最短的維基百科頁面。

Part of which is just distance.

其中一部分只是距離。

Walmart is visible.

沃爾瑪可見一斑。

With Amazon, you see only the results.

在亞馬遜，你只看到結果。

But public perception may start to change - more stores, more warehouses, more people

但公眾的看法可能開始改變 - 更多的店面、更多的倉庫、更多的人。

concerned about their privacy.

擔心他們的隱私。

The seeds are already planted, there's even talk of regulating Amazon as a monopoly.

種子已經種下了，甚至有。 談及將亞馬遜作為壟斷企業進行監管。

But it has a built-in defense against those arguments: Low prices.

但是，它有一個內置的防禦那些 爭論。低價。

It may control huge portions of many huge industries, but it uses that scale to save

它可能會控制許多巨大的部分。 行業，但它利用這種規模來節省

money for consumers.

消費者的錢。

It even competes with its own sellers.

它甚至與自己的賣家競爭。

Amazon can find which products are selling well but whose brands people don't care

亞馬遜可以發現哪些產品在銷售 好吧，但人們不關心誰的品牌

about, things like batteries and knives, analyze their return and review data, and manufacture

關於電池和刀具等東西，分析一下 他們的回報和審查數據，並製造

a cheaper version without the normal marketing expenses.

廉價版 支出。

It's their version of generic brands, with the power of data.

這是他們版本的通用品牌，與。 數據的力量。

Their most successful is AmazonBasics, which, if you search for something like “iPhone

他們最成功的是AmazonBasics，這。 如果你搜索類似 "iPhone

charger”, is practically all you see, here, here, here, here, here and here.

充電器"，幾乎是你看到的所有，這裡。 這裡，這裡，這裡，這裡和這裡。

Many of its brands you wouldn't even know were Amazon's, like Rivet and Presto.

它的許多品牌你甚至都不知道 是亞馬遜的，比如Rivet和Presto。

It knows how to rank first on its own website, which allows it to sell more products, therefore

它知道如何在自己的網站上排名第一。 這使得它可以銷售更多的產品，是以

manufacture them cheaper, lower their prices, which, again, sells more products.

廉價生產，降低價格； 其中，同樣是銷售更多的產品。

And the beauty of being in so many different industries, online storage, movie production,

而在這麼多不同的美 業、在線存儲、電影製作。

music distribution, print publishing, organic groceries, personal electronics, and so on,

音樂發行、印刷出版、有機 雜貨、個人電子產品等。

is more data and more uses for it.

是更多的數據和更多的用途。

That's why investors are so confident, Scale, long-term investment, customer-focus, and

所以投資者才會如此自信，規模。 長期投資，以客戶為中心，以及

data are all universal - they give Amazon an advantage in any business they enter.

數據都是通用的--它們給亞馬遜 在他們進入的任何業務中都有優勢。

In other words, if your business sells, well anything to consumers… there's a good

換句話說，如果你的生意賣得好，那麼...。 有一個很好的機會，可以給消費者提供任何東西。

chance you should be worried.

你應該擔心的機會。

Amazon isn't alone, the future of many industries is using algorithms to predict and analyze

亞馬遜並不孤單，很多行業的未來都是如此 正在使用算法來預測和分析

big sets of data.

大數據集。

With Brilliant, you can learn those valuable computer science skills in a very approachable,

有了Brilliant，你可以學到那些寶貴的 計算機科學技能在一個非常接近的。

intuitive way.

直觀的方式。

Say you have a list customers and their purchases, and you want to guess what one of them will

假設你有一個客戶名單和他們的購買行為。 你想猜猜他們中的一個會是什麼？

buy next.

買下一個。

One way to do that is called Collaborative Filtering, noticing that many people who buy

其中一種方式叫做協作式 篩選，注意到很多人買了

a backpack also look for school supplies.

一個揹包也要找學習用品。

Some patterns are invisible to you and me, so we use a neural network.

有些圖案是你我都看不見的。 所以我們使用神經網絡。

For example, retailers might want to automatically classify their shoppers in different categories.

例如，零售商可能希望自動 把他們的顧客分為不同的類別。

So you train the network with data you already have, which it can use to understand completely

所以，你用你已有的數據來訓練網絡 有，它可以用來完全理解

new information you give it.

你給它的新資訊。

Those are the kinds of topics you can learn with Brilliant.

這些都是你可以學習的話題 與輝煌。

To get started or dive deeper into the world of computer science and learn more about Brilliant,

要開始或深入瞭解這個世界 計算機科學的，瞭解更多關於Brilliant。

go to brilliant.org/Polymatter and sign up for free.

前往 brilliant.org/Polymatter 並註冊。 免費的。

The first 200 people to use that link will get 20% off the annual Premium subscription.

前200名使用該鏈接的人將 獲得年度高級訂閱8折優惠。