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  • When is seeing not believing?

    什麼時候,眼見不為實?

  • A couple years ago, my friend sent me this photo from Ürümqi,

    幾年前,我朋友從烏魯木齊 傳了這張照片給我,

  • which is the capital of Xinjiang province in northwest China.

    烏魯木齊是中國西北部 新疆省的首都。

  • On this particular day, she couldn't believe her eyes.

    在這一天,她無法 相信她所看見的。

  • Checking the quality of the air outside using this app on her iPad,

    她用 iPad 上的這個應用程式 來確認外面的空氣品質,

  • the numbers were telling her the air quality was good,

    數字告訴她,空氣品質很好,

  • one on a scale of 500.

    最高值是 500,此時只有 1。

  • But when she looked outside, she saw something much different.

    但當她向外看, 她看到的景象完全不同。

  • Yes, those are buildings in the background.

    是的,背景中的那些是建築物。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • But the data were simply not telling the truth

    但資料呈現的,就跟大家

  • of what people were seeing and breathing,

    看到和呼吸到的不一樣,

  • and it's because they were failing to measure PM2.5,

    那是因為他們沒有測量 PM2.5,

  • or fine particulate pollution.

    或稱為懸浮微粒污染。

  • When PM2.5 levels went off the charts in 2012,

    在 2012 年, PM2.5 的值高到破表,

  • or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy once described it in a tweet,

    美國大使館在推特上曾用 「糟到不可思議」來形容,

  • Chinese denizens took to social media

    中國居民開始在社交媒體談論,

  • and they started to question why it was that they were seeing this disconnect

    他們質疑為什麼 會有這種落差出現,

  • between official air quality statistics

    官方的空氣品質統計數字 和他們親眼見到、

  • and what they were seeing and breathing for themselves.

    親自呼吸到的實際狀況不同。

  • Now, this questioning has led

    這些質疑導致了

  • to an environmental awakening of sorts in China,

    中國出現環境覺醒之類的現象,

  • forcing China's government to tackle its pollution problems.

    強迫中國政府去處理污染問題。

  • Now China has the opportunity to become a global environmental leader.

    現在,中國有機會 成為全球的環境領袖。

  • But the picture that I'll paint for you today

    但,我今天要跟各位分享的狀況

  • is one that's mixed.

    是很複雜的狀況。

  • There are some signs that are very promising,

    有一些徵兆顯示前景很好,

  • and there are other trends that are more troubling

    也有其它的趨勢是比較堪憂的,

  • that warrant closer attention.

    需要更密切注意。

  • But now let's go back to the story at hand.

    但,我們現在先回到手邊的故事。

  • I started to witness the beginnings of China's green evolution

    2011 年,我是個博士生, 在中國進行實地研究,

  • when I was a PhD student conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.

    那時,我開始目擊了 中國綠色進化的開端。

  • I traveled all across the country seeking answers to the question

    我造訪中國各地, 尋求一些問題的答案,

  • that I often got myself from the skeptical outsider:

    抱持懷疑的局外人常常會問我:

  • What, you mean China is doing something on the environment?

    你說中國有些關於環境的作為, 那是什麼意思?

  • They have environmental policies?

    他們有環境政策了?

  • What policies?

    什麼政策?

  • At that time, PM2.5 data was considered too politically sensitive

    在那時,PM2.5 資料 被認為政治敏感性太高,

  • and so the government was keeping it secret,

    所以政府把這些資料完全保密,

  • but citizens were becoming aware of its harmful human health effects,

    但人民開始意識到它對 人類健康具有有害的影響,

  • and they were demanding greater transparency

    他們要求政府這一邊要有

  • on the part of the government.

    更高的透明度,

  • I actually started to see some of this growing evolution and awareness myself

    我自己真的有看到 在中國各地都出現了進化

  • cropping up all over China.

    且越來越多人意識到這個議題。

  • Department stores, for example, started to market these air purifiers

    比如,百貨公司開始 行銷各種空氣淨化機,

  • that could filter out harmful PM2.5.

    來過濾有害的 PM2.5。

  • Citizens were also adopting PM2.5 as the title of musical festivals.

    人民也採用 PM2.5 當作音樂節的標題。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And then I went to a golf course in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,

    接著,我去深圳上一堂高爾夫 課程,深圳在中國南部,

  • and you can see from this banner, they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.

    各位可以看這個告示牌 宣稱此區是 PM2.5 的避難所。

  • Golf sub-par, but don't breathe sub-par air.

    高爾夫要低於標準桿, 但呼吸的空氣不能低於標準。

  • And then Shanghai's Environmental Protection Bureau

    接著,上海的環境保護局

  • decided to create a mascot named after the air quality index

    決定要創造出一隻吉祥物, 以空氣品質指標(AQI)命名,

  • to better communicate the air quality data to its people.

    才能針對空氣品質資料 和人民做更好的溝通。

  • I call her AQI Girl,

    我叫她 AQI 女孩,

  • and her expression and hair color changes depending on the quality of air outside.

    她的表情和髮色會跟著 外面的空氣品質而改變。

  • Five years later and she's still the mostly smiling face

    五年後,她仍然 大部分時候都是笑臉,

  • of Shanghai's air quality.

    代表上海的空氣品質還不錯。

  • And then in 2015,

    接著,2015 年,

  • former CCTV reporter Chai Jing

    前中國中央電視台記者柴靜

  • created this documentary called "Under the Dome."

    製作了一部紀錄片《穹頂之下》。

  • It would be likened to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."

    它可以被比作瑞秋卡森的 《寂靜的春天》。

  • And much like Rachel Carson

    且就像瑞秋卡森

  • brought to attention the fact that pesticides were harming human health,

    讓大家注意到殺蟲劑 在傷害人類健康的事實,

  • "Under the Dome" stamped into the popular consciousness

    《穹頂之下》讓大眾能夠意識到

  • that air pollution was leading to one million premature deaths

    每年光是在中國的空氣污染

  • every year in China alone.

    就造成了一百萬人過早死亡。

  • This video garnered

    僅僅一個週末

  • more than a hundred million views in a single weekend

    這支影片的點閱率 就超過一億人次,

  • before China's government,

    後來,中國政府

  • fearing that it might incite some type of social unrest,

    害怕它可能會造成某種社會動盪,

  • pulled it from the internet.

    把它從網路上撤掉。

  • But the damage had already been done.

    但損害已經造成。

  • Public outcry over air pollution

    大眾對於空氣污染做出強烈抗議,

  • galvanized China's government,

    促使中國政府採取行動,

  • perhaps in an act of self-preservation,

    也許是為了保護自我,

  • to think big and decisively about how it could tackle

    大膽而果斷地思考

  • the root of its air pollution

    如何解決空氣污染的根源,

  • and many of its other environmental problems:

    並解決其它環境問題 :

  • its energy system.

    能源系統等。

  • For you see, in China,

    因為,在中國,

  • about two thirds of its electricity comes from coal.

    大約三分之二的電力是來自燃煤。

  • China has more coal-fired power plants than any other country in the world,

    中國的燃煤發電廠數量 比世界上任何國家都多,

  • about 40 percent of the global total,

    約佔了全球的 40%,

  • and it's because of this fact that China's government

    因為這一點,中國政府

  • has decided since 2014 to wage a war on coal,

    決定從 2014 年開始對煤宣戰,

  • shutting down small coal mines,

    關閉小型的煤礦坑,

  • setting limits on coal consumption,

    設定煤的消耗限制,

  • even canceling an Australia's worth of coal-fired power plants.

    甚至關閉了一座相當能產出 澳洲整體發電量的燃煤發電廠。

  • They've also been making enormous investments

    他們也一直針對乾淨的

  • when it comes to clean and renewable energy,

    可再生能源做大量的投資,

  • like hydropower, wind and solar,

    像是水力、風力,和太陽能發電,

  • and the pace and the scale of this transformation

    這項轉變的步調以及規模

  • has been absolutely mind-blowing.

    十分讓人興奮。

  • Let me give you a couple of statistics to show you what I mean.

    讓我用一些統計數字 來說明我的意思。

  • China leads the world when it comes to hydropower,

    在水力發電上,中國領先全世界,

  • with a third of total capacity.

    佔總發電量的三分之一。

  • There's enough for every Chinese citizen

    那足夠讓每一位中國公民

  • to power two homes in a single year from hydropower alone.

    光用水力發電就能供應 兩個家庭一年份的電力。

  • You may have heard of the Three Gorges Dam,

    你們可能有聽過三峽大壩,

  • pictured here,

    這是它的照片,

  • which is the largest power station in the world,

    它是世界上最大的發電站,

  • and it's powered by water.

    且是由水力來發電的。

  • In terms of wind power,

    在風力發電方面,

  • China has a third of the global capacity.

    中國佔了全世界總量的三分之一。

  • This makes it the number one leader by far.

    目前為止中國是世界第一。

  • When we look at solar, China's also leading.

    至於太陽能,中國也領先全球。

  • In fact, they crushed their 2020 target

    事實上,他們已經 達到了 2020 年的目標,

  • of installing 105 gigawatts of solar power.

    1050 億瓦的太陽能。

  • This is after the government already revised upwards

    且在這之前,政府就已經數次

  • several times its solar energy target

    於 2009 到 2015 年間 向上修正其太陽能目標。

  • between 2009 and 2015.

    去年,僅在七個月份內,

  • Last year, in seven months alone,

    中國就產生了驚人的 350 億瓦太陽能電力。

  • China was able to install a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.

    超過美國總量的一半,

  • This is more than half of what the US has combined in total

    且中國只用了七個月就達到。

  • and China did this in just seven months alone.

    我們可以從太空來驗證 中國在太陽能上的驚人成長,

  • We can verify this remarkable growth in solar power from space,

    像這張投影片上的, 是新公司 SpaceKnow 所做的。

  • like the startup SpaceKnow has done in this slide.

    到 2020 年時,中國將能夠 光靠風力和太陽能發電,

  • By 2020, China is on track to generate Germany's entire electricity consumption

    就能產生出德國的全國電力消耗量。

  • from just wind and solar power alone.

    這是相當了不起的。

  • It's pretty darn remarkable.

    現在已有證據顯示,

  • And we see some evidence now

    中國在乾淨能量上所做的努力

  • that China's efforts on clean energy

    是真的有影響,

  • is actually having an effect,

    不只是讓空氣污染減少,

  • not just on air pollution reduction,

    也改善全球的氣候變遷,

  • but also on global climate change,

    因為中國有世界上最大的碳足跡。

  • where China has the world's largest carbon footprint.

    從資料來看,我們可以 發現中國的煤消耗量

  • If we look at some of the data, we can see that China's coal consumption

    可能早在 2013 年 就已經達到高峰。

  • may have already reached a peak as early as 2013.

    主要是因為這個原因, 讓中國政府宣佈

  • This is a major reason why China's government announced

    他們已經達成了 2020 年的碳減量誓言,

  • that actually they've already achieved their 2020 carbon reduction pledge

    超前進度。

  • ahead of schedule.

    煤消耗量的減少

  • This reduction in coal consumption

    也會直接促成全國各地

  • is also directly driving improvements in air quality

    空氣品質的改善,

  • across the country,

    在這裡我用藍色標示。

  • as I've shown here in blue.

    在中國大部分的大城市,

  • In most major Chinese cities,

    空氣污染已經下降 30% 之多。

  • air pollution has fallen by as much as 30 percent.

    而空氣污染的減少,

  • And this reduction in air pollution is actually leading people

    讓中國人民能夠更長壽,

  • to live longer lives in China,

    平均來說,比 2013 年 多出 2.4 年的壽命。

  • on average two and a half years more than they would have in 2013.

    標示黃色的城市是空氣品質

  • In yellow, we can see the cities that have experienced

    改善最多的城市。

  • the greatest improvements in air quality.

    但,當然,就像 我在演講一開頭說的,

  • But of course, as I mentioned at the beginning of this talk,

    我們也不能樂觀過頭,

  • we have to temper some of this optimism

    還是要有適量的留心,

  • with a healthy dose of caution,

    因為大部分的資料還在判讀中。

  • and that's largely because the data are still being determined.

    去年年底,

  • At the end of last year,

    在全球碳排放很穩定地 維持了大約三年之後,

  • after roughly three years of pretty steady global carbon emissions,

    科學預測指出

  • scientific projections suggest

    全球排放量可能又會再次上升,

  • that global emissions may be on the rise again

    原因可能是因為中國 對化石燃料的消耗增加,

  • and that could be due to increases in China's fossil fuel consumptions,

    所以,中國可能還沒有達到 我先前所呈現的高峰。

  • so they may not have reached that peak that I showed earlier.

    但,當然,統計數字 和資料都仍然很模糊,

  • But of course, the statistics and the data are still murky

    那是因為中國常常在看到事實後, 修正它對煤的相關統計數字。

  • and that's because China regularly revises its coal statistics after the fact.

    其實,挺好笑的,

  • Actually, it's funny,

    在我來這裡之前,我還一直在推特上

  • since I've been here I've been having a debate on Twitter

    和其他的氣候建模者辯論,

  • with other climate modelers,

    試圖想要了解中國的碳排放

  • trying to figure out whether China's carbon emissions

    是攀升或下降, 或一直維持相對的穩定。

  • have gone up, gone down or whether they're staying relatively stable.

    當然,中國是個仍然在 快速發展中的國家。

  • And of course, China is still a rapidly developing country.

    它還在經歷各種政策,

  • It's still experimenting with a range of policies,

    比如無固定停車點的共享單車,

  • like dockless bike sharing,

    這政策被讚譽為永續交通的 一個可能解決方案。

  • which has been hailed as a possible sustainable transport solution.

    但接著我們看到的是 這種自行車墳場的景像,

  • But then we have images of this bicycle graveyard

    訴說一個更謹慎的故事。

  • that tell a more cautionary tale.

    有時,解決方案可能會跑太快,

  • Sometimes, solutions can move too fast

    趕過了需求。

  • and outpace demand.

    當然,煤在中國仍然居王位,

  • And of course, coal is still king in China,

    至少目前是如此。

  • at least for now.

    所以,我們為什麼應該要在乎 中國對環境做了什麼?

  • So why should we care about what China is doing on the environment?

    中國在國內對環境所做的事,

  • Well, what China does at home on the environment

    對我們其他人來說, 可能會有全球性的意涵。

  • can have global implications for the rest of us.

    借用柴靜的話,

  • To borrow a line from Chai Jing,

    我們都在同一個穹頂之下,

  • we're all under the same dome,

    而發源自中國的空氣污染

  • and air pollution that originates in China

    可能會移動到國界之外的地方,

  • can travel beyond its borders

    影響範圍可能遠至北美人口。

  • and affect populations as far away as those in North America.

    中國不只是在出口空氣污染,

  • China's not only exporting air pollution,

    他們也把援助、基礎設施、 技術出口到國外。

  • but they're also exporting aid, infrastructure, technology abroad.

    2013 年,領導人習近平 宣佈了「一帶一路」計畫,

  • President Xi Jinping in 2013 announced the One Belt, One Road Initiative,

    它是一個大規模、一兆美元的 基礎設施投資專案,

  • a massive, one-trillion-US-dollar infrastructure investment project

    投資超過六十個國家。

  • in more than 60 other countries.

    根據歷史,

  • And historically, when we've seen

    當中國對國外進行 這類基礎設施投資,

  • that China has made these infrastructure investments abroad,

    不見得都是乾淨的。

  • they haven't always been clean.

    全球環境研究所是一個 中國的公民社會團體,

  • The Global Environment Institute, a Chinese civil society group,

    他們在過去十五年間發現

  • found that in the last 15 years,

    中國已經投資了 超過 240 座燃煤發電廠,

  • China has invested in more than 240 coal-fired power plants

    位在超過 68 個國家中,

  • in more than 68 countries

    都是和一帶一路專案有關的國家。

  • affiliated with the One Belt, One Road Initiative.

    也就是說,中國國內的 燃煤發電量有四分之一

  • That's more than a quarter of China's own domestic coal-fired capacity

    被出口到國外去。

  • that is exported abroad.

    所以,雖然中國把自家清理乾淨了,

  • So we can see that even though China is cleaning up at home,

    卻是把其中一些污染出口

  • it's exporting some of that pollution

    到其他國家,

  • to other countries,

    因為溫室氣體的排放是不需要護照的。

  • and greenhouse gas emissions simply don't have a passport.

    所以,當我們還在評價 中國是否有確實地

  • So when we're trying to evaluate this question

    在帶頭處理這些問題時,

  • of whether or not China is actually leading,

    可以發現,這還有得辯論 沒有確定的答案。

  • we can see it's still very much an open debate.

    但時間快用完了。

  • But time is running out.

    我一直在研究氣候模型, 前景並不樂觀。

  • I've studied the climate models, and the outlook is not good.

    若想要避免危險的氣候變遷

  • We still have a gap between current policies

    目前的政策仍不足以應付。

  • and what needs to happen if we want to avoid dangerous climate change.

    地球迫切需要的是領導力,

  • Leadership is what we desperately need,

    但它不會來自美國,舉例來說。

  • but it's not coming from the US, for example.

    去年六月,美國政府宣佈美國打算

  • The US administration last June announced its intent

    退出巴黎氣候協議,

  • to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement,

    所以現在大家都期望中國 來補上這個領導的空缺。

  • so now people are looking towards China to fill that leadership void.

    所以中國可說是坐在駕駛座上,

  • So China is very much in the driver's seat

    決定我們全球環境的未來。

  • determining our global environmental future.

    他們在碳交易、乾淨能源,

  • What they do on carbon trading,

    及空氣污染上所採取的行動,

  • on clean energy, on air pollution,

    有很多可以讓我們學的。

  • we can learn many lessons.

    能學到的其中一點就是 乾淨能源不只是對環境很好,

  • One of those lessons is that clean energy is not just good for the environment,

    還因減少空氣污染而拯救生命。

  • it can save lives by reducing air pollution.

    它也對經濟有益。

  • It's also good for the economy.

    我們知道在去年,

  • We can see that last year,

    全球綠色工作成長中

  • China was responsible for 30 percent of the global growth

    有 30% 是中國的貢獻。

  • in green jobs.

    美國的貢獻?僅 6%。

  • The US? Only six.

    所以,我剛剛向各位描述的情況,

  • So the picture that I just painted for you

    希望和那些模糊、朦朧的

  • hopefully seems much different

    空氣品質統計數字有所不同,

  • from those murky, foggy air quality statistics

    希望我有更清楚地闡述了 中國的乾淨能源狀況。

  • to a much clearer picture of China's clean energy.

    雖然中國在朝著正確的方向前進,

  • And even though China is headed in the right direction,

    我們知道還有很長的路要走。

  • we know that there's still a very long road ahead.

    所以,讓我再問各位一次: 眼見就為實嗎?

  • So let me ask you once more: Is seeing believing?

    我們能否相信 資料和統計數字所顯示的

  • Can we trust the data and the statistics

    中國不好的空氣品質正在緩和中,

  • that show that China's air quality is coming down

    中國對抗燃煤的戰爭真的有成?

  • and that its war on coal is actually having an effect?

    咱們來看一些最新的衛星影像,

  • Well, let's take a look at some of the latest satellite images

    了解中國的太陽能設施。

  • of China's solar power installations.

    請各位非常仔細地看這張影像。

  • I want you to look very closely at this image.

    你們能看見嗎?

  • Can you see?

    證據可能就在熊貓裡。

  • The proof may just be in the pandas.

    非常謝謝各位。

  • Thank you so much.

    (掌聲)

  • (Applause)

When is seeing not believing?

什麼時候,眼見不為實?

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 中國 空氣 污染 品質 太陽能

【TED】徐安琪:中國如何(和不)對抗汙染和氣候變化(中國如何(和不)對抗汙染和氣候變化|徐安琪)。 (【TED】Angel Hsu: How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change (How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change | Angel Hsu))

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    Vivian Chen 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日