Name: 崛起中的帝國：印度為何成長如此迅速？ (Why is India growing so fast? | CNBC Explains)
Uploaded: 2018-09-10T05:57:43.000Z
Duration: 5 min 33 s

As China's economic growth slows, people are looking for the next big driver of growth.

在中國經濟成長減緩的同時，人們正在尋找下一個經濟成長大國

而印度看來正符合要求 (fit the bill，bill：鈔票)

The IMF estimates that India will be the fastest- growing major economy in the world this year,

國際貨幣基金組織預估，今年印度將會是成長最快速的主經濟體

which is why companies like Walmart are paying top dollar for business deals in India.

這也是為何企業比如沃爾瑪會砸下重金和印度做生意

It's projected to expand by 7.4%, putting it ahead of China.

預計印度會成長 7.4%，超越中國

所以，是什麼在驅動印度的成長？

India has a population of 1.3 billion, making it the second most populous country in the world.

印度有 13 億人口，使其成為世界上人口第二多的國家

It's on track to grow faster, even surpassing China's population by 2024.

印度的人口還會長得更快，甚至在 2024 年超越中國人口

And that big population is also really young.

India is on track to reap a handsome demographic dividend.

印度預計會獲得豐厚的人口紅利 (勞動人口在總人口中的比例上升，所伴隨的經濟成長效應)

This effect happens when a country's working age population

當一國的勞動人口多於非勞動人口時

is larger than the non-working age population.

By 2050, India is expected to have a working population of more than one billion.

到了 2050 年，印度預計會有超過一億的勞動人口

While many Asian countries are aging, India's population has a median age

當許多亞洲國家都在高齡化的同時，印度的人口平均值

of only 27.3 years, compared to China's 37.6 and Japan's 47.1.

才 23.7 歲，相較之下中國 37.6 而日本則是 47.1

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came into power in 2014,

自從納倫德拉．莫迪在 2014 年上任總理

his government has attracted record foreign direct investment.

他的政府已經吸引進創紀錄的外商直接投資

Modi has been credited for his strong reform agenda to improve India's business environment.

這都歸功於莫迪強勢的改革議程，企圖改善印度的商業環境

The World Bank gave a nod to his efforts, improving India's ranking

世界銀行也對他的努力有目共睹，將印度的

in its Ease of Doing Business ranking from 130 to 100.

營商便利度排名從 130 提升至 100

But India's growth is like my cricket game – full of promise, but it hasn't quite delivered yet.

但是印度的成長就和我的板球賽一樣 - 滿有承諾，但是尚未做到許多

India grew faster than China between 2014 and 2016,

在 2014 到 2016 年間，印度成長得比中國快

but lost its fastest-growing major economy title last year.

但是在去年失去了經濟最快速成長主經濟體的頭銜

Within the country, domestic investment has fallen as businesses have been hesitant to invest.

在國內，由於企業對於投資躊躇不定，國內的投資已經下跌

India's exports have also dropped since Modi came into power, despite his

自從莫迪上任，印度的出口也已經下跌

Made in India campaign meant to fire up the country's manufacturing industry.

儘管莫迪的「印度製造」宣傳活動旨在炒熱國內的製造產業

Economists say that domestic developments are to blame.

經濟學者表示，問題出在國內發展

In November 2016, the government's withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes shocked the country.

在 2016 年十一月，政府取消 500 和 1000 盧比鈔的政策震驚了全國

86% of the country's currency could no longer be used in shops.

Then, while businesses were trying to recover from that policy,

然後，就在商業還在試著從此政策中復甦之際

the government implemented the goods and services tax in July 2017.

政府在 2017 年七月施行了貨物和服務稅

It's the biggest tax reform since India's independence,

這是印度自獨立以來最大的稅務改革

consolidating India's many taxes into a single structure.

將印度許多種稅收整合到單一的經濟架構中

For instance, should coconut oil be taxed as a cooking product, or a hair product?

舉例來說，椰子油應該歸為料理產品還是護髮產品來課稅？

Is a chocolate coated biscuit a chocolate or a biscuit?

裹了巧克力的餅乾是巧克力還是餅乾？

The two policies on tax and demonetization hit consumption and investment hard,

稅改和廢鈔這兩大政策重創了消費和投資

despite most economists agreeing that the goods and services tax

儘管大多數經濟學者都同意貨物和服務稅將能替印度

This year, India is likely to keep its title as the world's fastest growing major economy.

今年，印度有可能維持她世界最快速成長的主經濟體頭銜

Former IMF chief economist and India's former central bank governor,

國際貨幣基金組織前首席經濟學者和印度中央銀行長

Raghuram Rajan has said that India needs to grow much faster.

拉古拉姆．拉詹表示，印度需要成長得快上許多

India has about one million people  entering the labor force every month.

在每個月，印度有大約 100 萬人進入勞動職場

So that's a big number that has to be absorbed which means we need

所以那是一大筆要吸收的數字，意味著我們必須

significantly more growth to get them good jobs.

更突出的成長才能讓他們有好工作

But India's growth this year faces serious challenges.

但是印度今年的成長面臨的嚴重的考驗

Top ratings agencies like Moody's and Goldman Sachs

前幾大的評級機構如穆迪和高盛

have cut their growth projections for India.

That could mean higher import costs and higher inflation.

那可以意味著更高的進口花費和更高的通貨膨脹

India is the world's third biggest oil consumer, after China and the United States.

印度是世界上第三大石油消費國，排在中國和美國之後

Because of low oil prices, which fell to about $40 per barrel in 2016,

由於在 2016 年降至每桶 40 美金的低油價

Modi's government could put taxes on petrol and diesel.

莫迪政府就可以在汽柴油上加稅

India has become dependant on these taxes,

which made up 17% of India's total revenue last year.

他們的總額在去年達到印度總稅收的 17%

The Indian rupee is also the worst performing currency in Asia this year,

在今年，印度盧比同樣是在亞洲表現得最差的貨幣

This may look like just a humble pakora, but this Indian street snack

這看起來或許只是普通的帕可拉 (一種北印炸蔬菜小吃)，但是這個印度街頭小吃

has ignited a huge debate about jobs in India.

已經在印度燃起嚴重的工作爭辯導火線

This year, Modi was asked about the perception that he failed to create more jobs for young Indians.

今年，莫迪被問到他關於沒能成功替印度年輕人創造更多工作機會的看法

"Official statistics do not capture the true number of people working."

「官方統計並沒有反映出真實的勞動人口數。」

His comments caused outrage in India, because there is a lot of anxiety for stable, salaried jobs.

他的回應在印度引起憤怒，因為在職場上有一股為了求得穩定、優渥工作的不安情緒

More than 25 million people, a number greater than Australia's population,

超過了 2500 萬人，這數字多於澳洲人口

applied for less than 90,000 jobs on India's state-run railways.

應徵了印度州際鐵路少於九萬個的職缺

For the most junior role in Mumbai police force,

200,000 people applied for 1,137 openings.

Many multi-national companies are excited about India, dreaming about

許多跨國企業對於印度感到興奮，夢想著

selling fast food, smartphones and fast  fashion to a rapidly growing middle class.

販賣速食、智慧型手機和快時尚給快速成長的中產階級

But right now, that middle class with income levels of similar populations in cities like

但在現今，和香港或是新加坡這些人口類似的城市相比

Hong Kong and Singapore is extremely tiny, estimated to be just about 1% of India's population.

持有和他們同樣等級薪水的中產階級是少之又少，預估只有印度總人口約 1%

The double whammy of a weaker currency and growing oil prices are going to hit India hard.

弱勢貨幣和提高的油價，這兩大打擊將會重創印度

Despite its challenges, India continues to grow quickly.

儘管有這些挑戰，印度持續快速成長

But will it be it fast enough to benefit its people?

但是她的速度會快到能夠使人民獲益嗎？

Hey everyone, it's Xin En. Thanks for watching!

嗨各位，我是 Xin En。謝謝收看！

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一如往常，歡迎在我們的留言區給與任何關於未來影片的建議

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