Name: 2008金融風暴發生的真正原因 (The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad)
Uploaded: 2018-08-25T03:08:56.000Z
Duration: 19 min 26 s

Translator: Queenie Lee Reviewer: Peter van de Ven

譯者：Queenie Lee 審稿：Peter van de Ven。

過去簡單式

I'm about to tell you some unconventional wisdom, alright?

我'要告訴你一些非常規的智慧，好嗎？

I called my talk today "The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis."

我把我今天的演講稱為 "2008年金融危機的真正真相"。

So, I guess what I ask you to do this morning

所以，我想今天早上我要求你做的是：

what the conventional wisdom is about 2008,

and I'm going to put some words in your mind or describe it this way,

而我'要把一些話放在你的腦海裡，或者這樣描述。

that the free-market capitalist system, especially bankers, are greedy,

自由市場的資本主義制度，特別是銀行家，是貪婪的。

they go through periods of excess speculation,

and the government has to come in and save us.

By the way, this is the story that was told about the Great Depression,

對了，這是關於大蕭條的故事。

and it is also the story that is told about the 2008 financial crisis.

而這也是2008年金融危機的故事。

Now, before I get into the meat of my presentation,

現在，在我進入演講的正題之前。

I want you to think about something else,

controls the level of short-term interest rates in our economy.

控制著我國經濟中的短期利率水準。

they're holding those interest rates at 0%,

What lots of people don't remember is that back in 2001, 2002 and 2003

很多人不記得的是，早在2001年、2002年和2003年的時候。

the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to 1%.

Because when you make a decision to take out a loan,

what is the most important ingredient of that decision?

這個決定中最重要的因素是什麼？

I mean, obviously, whether you have income,

我的意思是，很明顯，你是否有收入。

but one of the most important ingredients of that

In fact, interest rates were below inflation

for almost three years - below the rate of inflation.

So, when you're looking at a house - can I afford this house, the payment?

所以，當你'看房子的時候--我付得起這個房子、這個款項嗎？

those payment streams are determined by the level of interest rates,

這些付款流是由利率水準決定的。

you're going to buy in a better neighborhood,

buy cherry cabinets and granite counter tops

購買櫻桃木櫥櫃和花崗岩檯面。

So, let me put this into a story that I know you can understand.

所以，讓我把這個放到一個故事裡，我知道你能理解。

And that is, when you come to a green light in your car -

就是說，當你的車遇到綠燈的時候--。

you're driving along, there's a green light -

how many people in here actually have ever stopped at a green light?

有多少人在這裡實際上已經停止 在綠燈？

I'm talking about stopping at a green light,

getting out of your car and walking around to the other side,

just to make sure the other one really is red

只是為了確定對方真的是紅色的。

因為，很明顯，如果它也是綠色的。

it'd be dangerous to go through that intersection.

So what happens when Alan Greenspan or the Federal Reserve

那麼，當艾倫-格林斯潘或美聯儲時，會發生什麼？

holds interest rates all the way down at 1%?

and by the way, the financial system is no different than you.

順便說一句，金融系統和你沒有什麼不同。

Bankers, they're no different than individuals.

銀行家，他們和個人沒有什麼不同。

They would say, "Hey, with interest rates so low,

他們會說："嘿，利率這麼低，。

leverage, borrowing doesn't matter as much, it's cheap.

槓桿，借貸並沒有那麼重要，它便宜。

So, why don't we lever up a little bit more?

那麼，我們為什麼不多加一點槓桿呢？

After all, it's Alan Greenspan, the smartest man in the world,

畢竟，這是艾倫-格林斯潘，世界上最聰明的人。

in other words, all the lights are green."

換句話說，所有的燈都是綠色的。"

And, so what happens when you hold interest rates down like this?

那麼，如果你這樣把利率壓低會怎麼樣呢？

You cause people to make decisions that they wouldn't otherwise make.

你讓人們做出了他們不會做出的決定'。

Now, let me put this in a different perspective.

現在，讓我從另一個角度來看待這個問題。

他們在2004年上升了14%，2005年上升了15%。

So you could borrow at 1%, especially with those teaser loans,

所以你可以以1%的利率借貸，尤其是那些預告貸款。

and you could have a house that was appreciating at 14%:

而你可以有一個房子，升值14%。

And, so what happened is we encouraged more people to buy homes,

所以，所以發生的事情是我們鼓勵更多的人買房。

bigger homes than they should have at the time.

比他們當時應該有更大的房子。

We also encouraged bankers to take on more leverage,

and make more risky bets than they would have

In fact, if interest rates would have been 4 or 5%,

I don't believe we would have had the housing bubble at all.

我不'相信我們根本不會有房地產保麗龍。

Now, let's go back in time just a little bit,

現在，讓我們回到過去，只是一點點。

The last time the Federal Reserve really held interest rates too low for too long

上一次美聯儲真的把利率壓得太低，時間太長了。

In the 1970s, farmers bought too much land,

在上世紀70年代，農民買了太多的土地。

we were betting on oil prices going up forever,

and in the 1980s, when farmland prices collapsed and oil collapsed,

而在上世紀80年代，農田價格崩盤，石油崩盤。

By the way, the entire savings and loan industry

順便說一下，整個儲蓄和貸款行業。

they made too many loans when interest rates were low,

他們在低利率時做了太多的貸款。

and then, when interest rates went up, they collapsed.

然後，當利率上升時，他們就崩潰了。

we made big banks make huge loans to the Latin and South America.

我們讓大銀行向拉丁美洲和南美洲提供了大量貸款。

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2008金融風暴發生的真正原因 (The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad)

perspective

crisis

stress

mortgage