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  • [MUSIC PLAYING]

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: So thank you all for joining us.

  • I'd like to introduce you to Ray Dalio.

  • He's the founder of Bridgewater Associates.

  • He founded that 1975.

  • And it is one of the most successful hedge

  • funds in history.

  • So let's give Ray a nice Google welcome.

  • [APPLAUSE]

  • RAY DALIO: I'm in a stage in my life

  • where I'm entering what I call the third stage of my life.

  • I think of life as existing in three big stages.

  • The first is that you're learning from others.

  • You're dependent on others.

  • You're a kid.

  • The second stage of your life is then you're working.

  • Others are dependent on you.

  • And you're trying to be successful.

  • Then after, you get to the later stage in life.

  • Third stage of your life is others

  • are successful without you.

  • And that you're free--

  • according to Joseph Campbell free

  • to live and free to die, OK?

  • So that you have that element of freedom.

  • And so I'm at a stage in my life where--

  • I started Bridgewater out of a two-bedroom apartment in 1975,

  • and I've brought it to where it is now.

  • According to "Fortune," it's the fifth most important

  • private company in the United States.

  • It's been successful.

  • It's been good.

  • And that my objective at this particular stage

  • is to help others be successful without me.

  • I learned along the way certain principles.

  • Every time I would make a decision,

  • I would write down the reasons I would make that decision.

  • And I put them out.

  • I debated them.

  • And I developed these principles.

  • So think about principles as just

  • being these reasons for making a decision if you're

  • in this situation, how do you deal with it?

  • It was also very important to me to operate

  • in a very unusual way that seemed very sensible to me.

  • And it's an idea meritocratic way.

  • So I want to describe Bridgewater

  • as being an idea meritocracy-- in other words,

  • a real idea meritocracy, which I'll explain and show to you,

  • so a real idea meritocracy in which the goals are

  • meaningful work and meaningful relationships.

  • Meaningful work-- I mean you're on a mission,

  • that you feel you're on a mission together

  • to do those great things.

  • And meaningful relationships, meaning

  • that you care about each other.

  • It's part of a community.

  • And to be on that mission together.

  • And that was really great in terms of our success.

  • But it was meaningful work and meaningful relationships

  • through radical truthfulness and radical transparency.

  • That means, literally, people saying anything

  • that they feel that they want to say in terms of being polite,

  • of course, but sharing what they really believe is true

  • and working themselves through to have an idea meritocratic

  • way and to literally record everything for everybody

  • to hear.

  • So I mean, literally, there are a combination of videos

  • and tapes of all meetings that happen so that nothing

  • is hidden, because you can't have a real idea

  • meritocracy if you can't see things yourself.

  • And so it's a very unusual place,

  • and it was really the basis of our success.

  • And I want to explain that way of operating

  • to you because this idea meritocratic way, in which

  • there's meaningful work and meaningful relationships

  • through radical truthfulness and radical transparency

  • so that you could have thoughtful disagreement

  • and have ways of getting past that disagreement to then move

  • on, like a legal system.

  • That has been the key to our success.

  • So that's what I want to try to convey to you.

  • And I'm just going to take a few minutes

  • to try to go through a few slides

  • to give you a sense of this.

  • I wanted big, audacious goals.

  • I wish big, audacious goals for you.

  • Go after your goals

  • And on your way to your goals, you're

  • going to encounter your problems and your failures, right?

  • That's going to happen.

  • Otherwise you just go straight to your goals.

  • No.

  • That's the learning process.

  • You account in your failures.

  • Failures is part of the learning process.

  • From the failures, what I found was great.

  • I started to think of failures as lessons.

  • I started to think of them as puzzles

  • rather than develop emotional reactions to those failures.

  • I started think, pain plus quality reflection

  • would give me progress.

  • So I started to think of almost the failures like puzzles

  • that if I could study the puzzles, the puzzles was,

  • what would I do differently in the future

  • that wouldn't produce that problem again when it happened?

  • And then I would reflect--

  • well, what was that?

  • That would be my principles.

  • What would I do differently in the future?

  • If I solved that puzzle, I would get a gem.

  • And the gem was principle, a principle

  • to handle it better in the future,

  • because failure is a learning process.

  • It's an essential part of the learning process.

  • If you can realize that and you write down

  • those principles-- write them down.

  • It's been fantastic.

  • So we'd learn those principles.

  • And then it would help me improve.

  • And then I would go on to more audacious goals.

  • And I look at evolution-- personal evolution

  • or almost every evolution-- evolution

  • of a company, evolution of everything,

  • as being this constant looping process that I sort of think

  • of as this five-step process.

  • In other words, to be successful, you have to out

  • you have to do five things.

  • First, you have to know what your goals are

  • and go after those goals.

  • Be clear on your goals.

  • And you will encounter problems on the way to those goals.

  • Those will be your barriers, OK?

  • There are tests now.

  • Don't just emotionally complain.

  • Think about them as your problems.

  • You have to diagnose those problems to the root cause

  • to get at the root cause.

  • And that root cause might be yourself,

  • what you're doing wrong or what somebody else is doing wrong.

  • So you can't depersonalize it.

  • You have to really look at it so that you make those changes.

  • And when you get at that root cause,

  • only by knowing that root cause can then you

  • design a way to get around that root cause.

  • Like, if you're not good at something yourself,

  • it's OK if you find somebody else who's good at the things

  • that you're not good at because nobody can be good

  • at everything, right?

  • But you have to do that.

  • You just can't keep banging yourself on the wall.

  • So you have to design something that's practical to get around

  • with it.

  • And then you have to follow through and do it.

  • A lot of people come up with designs,

  • but you have to do the thing that's necessary.

  • And by trying that thing that's necessary, again ,

  • you will find out, are you getting to your goals or are

  • you encountering your next set of problems and so on?

  • And that, I believe, is the personal evolutionary process

  • that has helped me.

  • Those rules that I was able to write down

  • and that you can get in this book, "Principles," which

  • is why I'm passing them along.

  • Those rules-- we were actually able to then

  • put into the algorithms and build decision-making processes

  • that replicate the brain.

  • We'll get into that in a minute.

  • OK, so in order to be successful in the markets,

  • one has to be an independent thinker.

  • In order to be an entrepreneur, one

  • has to be an independent thinker and bet against the consensus

  • and be right, because the consensus in the markets

  • is built into the price.

  • Whatever anybody thinks, it's built into the price.

  • So you have to bet against the consensus.

  • And you're going to be wrong a fair amount of times

  • about betting against the consensus.

  • But in any case, you need to be an independent thinker.

  • And for an entrepreneur, you need

  • to be an independent thinker, because you're

  • inventing new stuff.

  • You're doing something.

  • And you don't know if you're right.

  • So in order for me to be successful,

  • I needed to have a bunch of independent thinkers

  • in order to have them be effective.

  • OK, well, now, how are you going to get

  • this bunch of independent thinkers

  • to agree on anything, OK?

  • I had to have an idea meritocracy.

  • In other words, I had to have a system that literally,

  • systematically allows for thoughtful disagreement

  • so that this idea meritocratic people could then

  • get at the right answer, because that's fantastic

  • if you can have that thoughtful disagreement

  • to get at the right answer.

  • It's very powerful.

  • By having that and then systematizing it--

  • principled systems--

  • a system for having thoughtful disagreement for an idea

  • meritocracy--

  • we could produce greater amounts of successes.

  • We also produced failures.

  • But we would look at that way, produce our learnings.

  • And that produced, as a result, happy employees who really

  • believe in this idea meritocratic thing

  • and owned the company, intellectually and otherwise,

  • own the company.

  • And we had happy employees.

  • And then it became easier to attract those types of people,

  • those types of people who believe that everybody has

  • the right to make sense of things

  • and that there's a power in thoughtful disagreement.

  • And that allowed us to attract more people,

  • and that was the basis of going from the two-bedroom apartment

  • to Bridgewater now.

  • So now we have about 1,500 people,

  • and that's how it works as an idea meritocracy.

  • And I want to pass that along to you,

  • and I want to say, OK, so what is an idea meritocracy?

  • You could have your own versions of this.

  • You pick what is fine to you.

  • But three different things are necessary for an idea

  • meritocracy.

  • First, everybody has to put their honest thoughts

  • on the table to see.

  • Now, I watch this, and I think it's so many organizations, so

  • many people--

  • they all keep it bottled up in their heads, right?

  • And they're critical behind the scenes.

  • And that's bad.

  • So can you put your honest thoughts

  • on the table with other people's honest thoughts

  • so that you understand what people are thinking, OK?

  • It makes everything, first of all,

  • a lot more efficient, right?

  • It's terribly inefficient when everybody doesn't know what

  • the other person's thinking.

  • And then also, it doesn't allow ownership.

  • It can't be an idea meritocracy if you just

  • don't work it through.

  • Everybody's talking behind the scenes.

  • We don't allow talking behind the scenes,

  • but anybody can challenge anything at any time.

  • OK, then you have to understand the art

  • of thoughtful disagreement, thoughtful disagreement.

  • So many people react badly to disagreement.

  • You have to change the modus operandi

  • and start your thinking.

  • It should be curiosity how do you know who's right?

  • How do you know who is wrong?

  • It should prompt curiosity not anger.

  • It tends to produce to some extent anger

  • because it's like a barbaric animal behavior

  • that what happens is the amygdala part of us

  • has this flight or flight thing.

  • And then that it's viewed as an attack.

  • And that's not good.

  • So there are protocols that we have

  • that I won't go into now that I don't have time,

  • but they're are laid out in the book of how

  • do you have the art of thoughtful disagreement

  • to raise the probabilities?

  • Because collectively, if you have an idea meritocracy

  • and you know how to do this well collectively,

  • you're going to make much better decisions than individually.

  • If you just are stuck with the information that's

  • in your head and your opinions, that's terrible.

  • I believe that one of the greatest tragedies of mankind--

  • such an easy thing to fix--

  • is the people who are stuck with wrong opinions in their heads

  • that they don't put out there and stress test

  • and raise their probabilities of being right.

  • So you have to understand the art of thoughtful disagreement

  • that brings in better thinking than you individually

  • has and has a probability of moving you to a better answer

  • than you would have individually.

  • That requires a skill.

  • And so then you have the disagreement.

  • That collective decision-making's

  • very powerful.

  • It's done well.

  • But you might still have a disagreement after those things

  • Then you have to have agreed upon ways of getting

  • past your disagreement.

  • If you have your disagreements that are gnawing at you

  • and so on, it's like a law case, a legal case.

  • OK, you go in.

  • You have a trial.

  • You do it.

  • But you believe that the decision-making system is fair.

  • And because you believe it's fair

  • and you've had that opportunity, that you say,

  • now we can get past the disagreement

  • and move on, rather than being stuck with it.

  • So those are the three things that an idea meritocracy

  • has to have and so if you think, do you

  • want an idea meritocracy, you have to think about those three

  • things.

  • So this is the thing.

  • Meaningful relationships and meaningful work,

  • together, have produced this success, and then

  • this radical truthfulness and radical transparency

  • you know produces an idea meritocracy.

  • That's it.

  • The other thing is, in order to have an idea meritocracy

  • and in order to have great personal development--

  • here.

  • When you know what someone is like,

  • you know what you can expect from them.

  • Can you talk about what people are like?

  • Can you deal with really getting at what people are like?

  • Do you know what you're are like?

  • Or are you going to hide those things

  • and not talk about those things?

  • People who want to come into this environment

  • would like to honestly know what their strengths and weaknesses

  • are and work on those so that they can produce better teams,

  • that people who have some weaknesses

  • can work with people who have corresponding strengths

  • and also know about themselves and also

  • be very straightforward, that I can hand you

  • that responsibility, but I can't hand you

  • this responsibility because you appear

  • to have these weaknesses.

  • How do you get objectively at the question

  • of whether you have those weaknesses or those strengths?

  • Can we have do that objectively?

  • That is really great.

  • So this is an important element that has been fantastic for us.

  • And I'll give you a sense.

  • So this is just making the point that in a job,

  • quality is needed, then what somebody's like,

  • and the goal is to eliminate that.

  • So now I use technology and algorithms.

  • I started 25 years ago--

  • and we do have done it to a great, enormous degree--

  • use algorithms to take principles and put them

  • into making decision-making systems.

  • All of our investment decision-making

  • is made by replicating our thinking

  • and actually putting them in algorithms and taking in data.

  • And we do the same thing for about half

  • of our management processes.

  • And I do believe that we're on the path

  • that we will have algorithmic, idea meritocratic

  • decision-making done by algorithms that

  • can see everything and that can make better

  • decisions than individuals stuck in their heads

  • and because you can specify the algorithm,

  • so everybody can see the algorithm,

  • so everybody can see the criteria.

  • And they can evaluate the merit of the criteria.

  • But to just give you a little sense

  • of that, what I want to do is just

  • show you a little clip of one of the tools

  • that we use and it'll give you a flavor of what we're doing.

  • So who can hit the clip?

  • [VIDEO PLAYBACK]

  • - In order to give you a glimmer into what this looks like, I'd

  • like to take you into a meeting and introduce you

  • to a tool of ours, called the dot collector,

  • that helps us do this.

  • A week after the US election, our research team

  • held a meeting to discuss what a Trump presidency would

  • mean for the US economy.

  • Naturally, people had different opinions on the matter

  • and how we were approaching the discussion.

  • The dot collector collects these views.

  • It has a list of a few dozen attributes.

  • So whenever somebody thinks something

  • about another person's thinking, it's easy for them

  • to convey their assessment.

  • They simply note the attribute and provide a rating

  • from 1 to 10.

  • For example, as the meeting began,

  • a researcher named Jen rated me a 3--

  • in other words, badly--

  • for not showing a good balance of open-mindedness

  • and assertiveness.

  • As the meeting transpired, Jen's assessments of people

  • added up like this.

  • Others in the room have different opinions.

  • That's normal.

  • Different people are always going

  • to have different opinions.

  • And who knows who's right?

  • Let's look at just what people thought about how I was doing.

  • Some people thought I did well.

  • Others, poorly.

  • With each of these views, we can explore the thinking

  • behind the numbers.

  • Here's what Jen and Larry said.

  • Note that everyone gets to express their thinking,

  • including their critical thinking, regardless

  • of their position in the company.

  • Jen, who's 24 years old and right out of college,

  • can tell me, the CEO, that I'm approaching things terribly.

  • This tool helps people both express their opinions

  • and then separate themselves from their opinions

  • to see things from a higher level.

  • When Jen and others shift their attentions

  • from inputting their own opinions to looking down

  • on the whole screen, their perspective changes.

  • They see their own opinions as just one of many

  • and naturally start asking themselves, how

  • do I know my opinion is right?

  • That shift in perspective is like going

  • from seeing in one dimension to seeing in multiple dimensions,

  • and it shifts the conversation from arguing over our opinions

  • to figuring out objective criteria for determining

  • which opinions are best.

  • Behind the dot collector is a computer that is watching.

  • It watches what all these people are thinking,

  • and it correlates that with how they think.

  • And it communicates advice back to each of them based on that.

  • Then it draws the data from all the meetings

  • to create a pointillist painting of what people are like

  • and how they think.

  • And it does that guided by algorithms.

  • Knowing what people are like helps to match them better

  • with their jobs.

  • For example, a creative thinker who is unreliable

  • might be matched up with someone who's

  • reliable but not creative.

  • Knowing what people are like also

  • allows us to decide what responsibilities to give them

  • and to weigh our decisions based on people's merits.

  • We call it their believability.

  • Here's an example of a vote that we

  • took where the majority of people felt one way.

  • But when we weighed the views based on people's merits,

  • the answer was completely different.

  • This process allows us to make decisions

  • not based on democracy, not based on autocracy,

  • but based on algorithms that take people's believability

  • into consideration.

  • Yeah, we really do this.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • [END PLAYBACK]

  • RAY DALIO: And so that you can see believability waiting.

  • So let's imagine that you have data on everybody

  • so that you just don't go walking in a room

  • and everybody's got an opinion without actually thinking,

  • with some element of score, who is

  • more likely to have a better opinion, because there's

  • a certain dynamic.

  • You put 10 people in a room, and you're

  • going to get one of two things.

  • You're going to either have autocratic decision making.

  • In other words, everybody feeds their opinions,

  • and then the guy who is responsible for that

  • then says, OK, here's my decision based on that.

  • That's more normal.

  • Sometimes you'll go around the room,

  • and, what does everybody think?

  • And then there's a notion to a consensus.

  • And that's not so good either.

  • What I did-- because I really don't know

  • that I have the right answer.

  • I really don't.

  • Running the company, the reason I did this was out of need.

  • I want to triangulate about people who I believe

  • might have better thinking.

  • And if three believable people believe one thing

  • and I believe something else, there's a good chance

  • that I might be wrong.

  • And also, what am I going to do?

  • What about for them?

  • So I like to have these believability scores that

  • is accumulated by data and other people's

  • thinking of who is better and worse or different things.

  • And then people can change those scores

  • or take those into consideration.

  • And that's what believability-weighted decision

  • making is because it helps the idea meritocracy.

  • OK, so that's what we do.

  • We'll go to the question and answer.

  • The important thing here is to talk about idea

  • meritocratic decision making.

  • However we choose to do it and whatever tools

  • we use to get at that is, really,

  • of subordinate importance to the idea of,

  • how do you have that idea meritocratic decision making?

  • I believe that what you're going to see

  • is, if you start to get to this principle decision-making idea

  • meritocratic decision-making, what you're

  • going to see is the learning of principles for dealing

  • with situations that themselves will be idea meritocratic.

  • So if you have a situation, and you're

  • going to Google to find out what the facts are now,

  • you will increasingly be able to go to Google

  • and find out how you should handle

  • certain things, principles and the like,

  • in that idea meritocratic way with believability-weighted

  • decision-making and the like.

  • So I want to throw that out there,

  • and then we'll have our conversation.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: I'd like to start

  • with-- you had a concept called the "two yous"

  • and how that affects our thinking process

  • and also taking feedback.

  • Can you talk about that?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, the brain actually

  • has a lot of parts in it that are

  • the things that compete with each other to make decisions.

  • But the two big yous are the thoughtful you,

  • that is in our conscious mind, and then

  • the emotional you, which is in our subconscious mind.

  • There are a lot of motivations that you probably don't even

  • know, that are subliminal, that came from maybe early childhood

  • or your circumstances that are below the surface.

  • And they're at odds.

  • They struggle with each other.

  • So the issue of, would you like to know your weaknesses?

  • Would you like to know what other people really

  • think about you?

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Yeah.

  • RAY DALIO: OK, intellectually, you

  • would like to know those things.

  • Emotionally, you might not like to know those things.

  • And so when you're dealing with our environment, and you say,

  • would you like to have this environment

  • of radical truthfulness and radical transparency,

  • almost everybody intellectually says it,

  • and when they're going through it they say it.

  • And you see them also struggle with their emotional selves

  • as they're going through it until they re-adapt.

  • And when they start to re-adapt, and they say,

  • knowing what's true is good.

  • And yeah, now I know my weaknesses,

  • and I know what other people are thinking about me.

  • And I could approach what to do about it.

  • Then they sort of make a transition to the other side.

  • So we have our two yous that lead

  • to struggles like disagreement, disagreement and finding

  • it emotionally difficult. It's curiosity.

  • Why shouldn't that be a joy?

  • But we have that emotional thing that we have to struggle.

  • So that's the two yous.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: And what are some tips

  • that people can help themselves get through the two yous issue

  • to make them more resilient to feedback?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, there are a number

  • of there are a number of things that are in the book.

  • Let me answer it before I go to that particular one.

  • Whenever there's whenever there's conflict,

  • I recommend that you go to a higher level, one level up.

  • Whenever you have a disagreement,

  • just go to one level up with the person

  • that you're in the conflict with or even yourselves

  • when you have a dilemma.

  • And look and come up with an agreement of how

  • you should be with each other.

  • In other words, let's say you and I have a disagreement.

  • OK, rather than being caught in the anger of that disagreement,

  • to go above and you should say, how do we disagree?

  • How should we disagree?

  • Form a contract of how you should be with each other,

  • and make that a practical modus operandi.

  • That's what we do, and then there's

  • also then the ways we do it.

  • So the ways we do it are certain things.

  • First, to know that decision-making

  • is a 2-step process.

  • There is first taking in, and then there's deciding.

  • The capacity to take in the other person's point of view,

  • the noticing how your body is reacting,

  • noticing how you are reacting.

  • Am I having my heart rate rise?

  • Can I pause?

  • We have something like the two-minute rule.

  • You say, can I have two minutes?

  • Then that person has the two minutes to say what they want.

  • Having those kinds of protocols--

  • there are a number explained in the book.

  • Where there's curiosity, where there's not blocking.

  • Somebody in a discussion will do a lot

  • to block the taking it in.

  • So these protocols--

  • I won't go through them all.

  • But having those protocols in place that you practice

  • are fair.

  • I have created an app called a Dispute Resolver, OK?

  • So when anybody has a dispute, you push the button,

  • and there's a path, and the dispute's resolved.

  • It's explained in the appendix of the book.

  • All the tools are there.

  • And it describes procedurally what one does,

  • depending on the level of the dispute.

  • A very common thing is if you and I have a dispute,

  • one of the simplest things to do is for you

  • and I mutually agree on a mediator.

  • So we agree on a mediator and move forward.

  • Some others might be matters of principle

  • and almost progress like legal cases.

  • What's your evidence?

  • What's this?

  • And who is the judge?

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Now, when you have this dialogue

  • and discussion about feedback, and it

  • might turn into a tense situation

  • like with disagreement, are there mediums of exchange

  • that you prioritize?

  • Because I see some people who will go towards email,

  • but when you use email, you miss tone and content and context.

  • RAY DALIO: As a generalization, we

  • want the person to find the medium of exchange

  • that they're most comfortable with because there

  • are pros and cons to each.

  • Like, some people, in the moment,

  • feel that they're not as spontaneous in the moment,

  • or they may be more introverted.

  • And they think that they won't present themselves the best

  • in a person, one-on-one discussion

  • so that they would prefer by email to say, listen,

  • I'd like to lay out my thoughts, hear your thoughts by email,

  • and then have that opportunity to have the back-and-forth.

  • Some people would like to do it other ways.

  • The important thing is that they just

  • agree on what's most effective for them.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • Now, let's say an organization goes through a calamity

  • and there's a trust issue in the organization,

  • how does the company go about rebuilding

  • the trust within employees?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, again, I think radical truthfulness

  • and radical transparency is the means of doing it.

  • What I did and what my experience would be--

  • if you have radical transparency--

  • so literally, every crisis I was in, every situation I was in,

  • I would have a camera in that discussion

  • as we looked at the pros and cons of the issue

  • so everybody could see the pros and cons of that discussion

  • so you know there's no spin.

  • You have a trust issue if it's hidden behind the scenes,

  • I think.

  • With radical transparency, so everybody could see.

  • Just imagine what it would be like here, OK, for whatever

  • issue, that you could see how people making decisions,

  • literally, weighing the pros and cons

  • and seeing how they are real.

  • And it could be anything from the top of the organization

  • to just even somebody firing somebody else.

  • Was it done well?

  • That radical transparency and then coming out of it

  • and writing principles as to, why did you handle it that way,

  • and then putting those principles out

  • so that everybody could debate that principle

  • or look at that principle, not in an enormous, time-consuming

  • way but in an effective way and then having an idea

  • meritocratic way where you look at that

  • and you say, OK, that decision was made that way.

  • Maybe that's not the way I would do it.

  • But I now understand the thinking behind it.

  • Because if you don't have that kind of thing,

  • then there's alienation.

  • If you don't have trust and you don't have an appreciation,

  • then increasingly, you build an organization in which

  • there's a "we" and "them."

  • There's those people who are making the decisions,

  • and you don't really understand it.

  • And you just have to go along with it.

  • And then that becomes a source of tension.

  • And then there are factions and all that.

  • And there's no resolution.

  • You have to have resolution and get past it.

  • So the radical truthfulness and the radical transparency

  • brings trust.

  • And it means that bad stuff--

  • it's tough stuff bad stuff to happen because bad stuff

  • happens in the dark.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: That's true.

  • RAY DALIO: If you make it radically transparent

  • and anybody can bring it up, then everybody owns it.

  • Radical transparency is a very effective tool

  • in terms of building trust and putting things to the light.

  • Believe me, none of this is perfect,

  • but it's certainly been miraculous for us.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • Why do you think organizations aren't going

  • towards radical transparency?

  • RAY DALIO: First of all, I think that they inevitably will.

  • You must know that it's so easy to collect data on everybody.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • So everybody's going to know what everybody's like,

  • and then the question is, who's got the radical transparency?

  • And then what are you going to do

  • with the radical transparency?

  • You're going to make what you do with it radically transparent?

  • OK, so I think evolutionarily, we're

  • going to go to this radical truthfulness

  • and this radical transparency because it's

  • going to be tough to hide.

  • I think it's a control thing and time thing.

  • So it's a control thing means you're a decision maker,

  • and all these people have all these different points of view.

  • And how meritocratic is it to hear all this?

  • And we'll never resolve those things.

  • Somebody just wants to sort of get on

  • with their decision-making.

  • And I think that that's because they're still

  • in this, what I believe, will be an old world mindset,

  • that it is all in the head, rather than out of the head

  • and in that notion of how do you make the best

  • algorithmic decision-making so it's not in the head.

  • But we still have the, it's in my head,

  • and I want to do what I want to do, and I know better.

  • And how do I do that?

  • That's a big part of.

  • It

  • And then thinking, of course, about the time

  • of, how do you resolve it with all these people

  • so that you have a real time-efficient, effective way

  • of having an idea meritocracy.

  • Those are the barriers.

  • And then there's this two you thing, OK?

  • That emotional you thing.

  • Those are the, I would say, the main barriers.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Now, you said what's important

  • for the mission of Bridgewater is having

  • meaningful relationships.

  • Have you found that with this transparency

  • you've been able to supercharge the relationships

  • that you've had in the company?

  • RAY DALIO: Yeah, yes.

  • But we don't even have to go to the company level.

  • I'm just saying any group of individuals

  • can decide whether they're going to be

  • radically truthful and transparent

  • and on the same mission.

  • If you get five people together and they

  • say we're going to be on that--

  • And that's largely where it started to

  • because I start the company, and I say, how am I

  • going to be with each other?

  • Because that honesty and being on that mission

  • is going to bring people closer together.

  • It almost brings everybody closer together.

  • The hiding stuff and the absence of trust is bad.

  • And not only the absence of trust,

  • but you can't have real ownership if you

  • don't understand and don't have a say.

  • Everybody-- and like I'm saying-- everybody

  • has the right and obligation to make sense of things.

  • It's powerful.

  • And when you were in it together,

  • something much more magical happens

  • than a paycheck and a job.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Now, when you've created your principles,

  • has there been processes where you said,

  • maybe this principle worked at this point,

  • but now we need to re-evaluate it?

  • RAY DALIO: Constantly.

  • Because so I guess I want to to describe it.

  • I just about everything happens over and over again.

  • We instead look at things as individual things

  • that are coming up so it's like we're in a snowstorm.

  • But if you just sort of say, what species of thing,

  • what species of encounter am I having?

  • And you write a principle for it,

  • and you write that, then when the next one comes along again,

  • you see, ah, it's that species.

  • And you go to that principle, and you look at it,

  • and everyone's slightly different.

  • And that leads to then the refinement of the principles

  • and those differences, right?

  • And then to do that transparently is very powerful.

  • So yeah, always.

  • And you realize, of course, that no principle is perfect.

  • No principle works.

  • So those different gradations get more fleshed out

  • and become clear.

  • And that's what the book of "Principles" is about.

  • It's a bunch of these things.

  • But you'll see how they've sort of evolved

  • from this encounter or that encounter

  • or in you get refinement.

  • And I would urge you individually to do this.

  • It's one of the most wonderful things that's happened to me.

  • When something comes along, some situation,

  • particularly a painful situation-- therefore,

  • it might signal, you don't want another one of those--

  • after you get past your pain or at the end of it,

  • record your pain and then think about principles

  • and write them down.

  • How would you handle that type of situation?

  • Write it down like a diary.

  • And when you accumulate those and share those,

  • that's very powerful.

  • We have an app which we call a Coach, which somebody says,

  • I'm in this situation.

  • What should I do?

  • And then they go to that Coach, and the relevant principles

  • come up.

  • But rather than just my principles,

  • I'm going to make it that each successful person--

  • I'm going to get, I don't know, Larry Page's

  • principles, XYZ's principles for that situation,

  • and you have that there.

  • And then you have your own principles,

  • and you write it down so that when you're then

  • in a situation, you could look at that situation

  • and you say, what should I do going to those principles?

  • Because if you start to think of that in the principled way,

  • it's very helpful, and they will refine.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Now, in the five-step process,

  • of the five steps, what do people

  • have the most trouble with?

  • RAY DALIO: It's very interesting.

  • It really depends on how their brains work.

  • Like, there are some real big picture thinkers who

  • have no problems with goals.

  • They know where they want to go, but they have problems

  • pushing through to results.

  • So there are some people, in terms of diagnosing things

  • to the root cause--

  • it's a challenge.

  • Everybody has a problem but one of those steps.

  • And we see that by observing themselves

  • as to which step they have a problem with,

  • they begin to understand how their brain works.

  • It's not a problem, though, if they work collectively

  • because whatever step they're having

  • a problem with, another person, if they help them with that,

  • can really help them be effective at that step.

  • And that's really the key to success in life.

  • The key to success in life, really,

  • is largely knowing what you're not good at

  • and who can help you be good at those things

  • so that you can lean on each other and be effective.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • In the book, you mentioned Joseph Campbell's

  • "Hero's Journey."

  • And what type of impact did his work

  • have on you with your philosophy?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, my son gave it to me in 2014,

  • way late in my journey.

  • But I was at a particular point in my journey where I was--

  • he gave it to me at the late stage, the stage are now at.

  • He described returning the boon.

  • And returning the moon is the stage where you learned a lot.

  • And some people learn a lot, and then they go to retirement.

  • And he was making the point that when you learn a lot,

  • you pass along that to others.

  • And he described it very vividly.

  • Like, I don't like public attention.

  • I don't like all of that.

  • But he described it as at that stage,

  • how important it is to pass along what you learned,

  • and he described it as a difficult process.

  • And then when you do that so that others are

  • successful without you, then you get to a stage

  • where you're free to live and free to die because you

  • don't have that obligation.

  • So that's where he caught me.

  • But if you read the book, it's very interesting.

  • Or in my book, I recounted in a few pages

  • what the "Hero's Journey" is.

  • And you start to think about, where am I on this path?

  • "The Hero's Journey"-- you probably don't know the book.

  • "Hero of 1,000 Faces" is the book--

  • Joseph Campbell.

  • What he did is he went through history and myths and so on,

  • and he says there's a certain type of person who

  • has a taste for adventure and goes through that

  • and then has their battles, and they have the wins and losses.

  • And then the mission becomes important.

  • And others become more important than themselves.

  • And they rise.

  • We can call that spirituality, whatever that is.

  • But it is the basis of "Star Wars."

  • His book was.

  • So it's that notion of that journey.

  • And it's a good book.

  • In my case, I happened to read it at that particular spot.

  • But anybody referring to it probably

  • would find, oh, that's me there.

  • One of the biggest things was the abyss.

  • What is your abyss?

  • There will come a time that you are

  • going to have a terrible situation,

  • and you're going to--

  • miserable.

  • And how you reflect on that situation

  • and whether you have a metamorphosis,

  • a change, a personal change--

  • me, in my case, happened in 1982.

  • I was publicly dead wrong in the markets.

  • I don't know if I'd take the time to tell you the story.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: You have the floor.

  • RAY DALIO: Oh, yeah.

  • So I formed Bridgewater in 1975.

  • And I had a small company.

  • And I analyzed.

  • And I had done calculations that American banks had

  • lent to emerging countries a lot more money than those countries

  • are going to be able to pay back.

  • And as a result, we were going to have debt defaults

  • and a debt crisis.

  • And that was a very, very, very controversial point of view.

  • And it turned out, in that regard,

  • to be right Mexico defaulted in August, 1982.

  • And I thought we were going to have an economic collapse.

  • So I received a lot of attention.

  • I was asked to testify to Congress

  • to explain the situation.

  • I went on "Wall Street Week," which was a show of the time.

  • And I believed that we were going

  • to have this economic collapse.

  • That was the exact bottom of the stock market, exact bottom

  • of the stock market.

  • I could not have been more wrong.

  • Not only was I more wrong, I lost money.

  • I lost money for me.

  • I lost money for my clients.

  • I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad

  • to help to take care of my family.

  • It was a very, very painful, painful mistake.

  • But with reflection, I would say it

  • was one of the best things that happened to me because it

  • shifted my mindset from thinking, I'm right,

  • to asking myself, how do I know I'm right?

  • It gave me the humility that I needed

  • to balance with my audacity.

  • It changed my approach.

  • I had a metamorphosis.

  • And each person is going to have their own particular challenge

  • that way.

  • And so what I'm saying is like in Joseph Campbell, that

  • abyss-- he describes that experience as,

  • you're in the abyss.

  • And then do you have the metamorphosis?

  • And that metamorphosis is a humility,

  • and I'm worried that you might not get it right,

  • and how do you get the best triangulation.

  • That's motivated the idea meritocracy,

  • bringing the best independent thinkers to work together.

  • So that's what that's like.

  • So anyway, it's a good book.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • Now, we know a lot about your principles.

  • But as far as your father and your mother,

  • what type of principles did they teach you?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, my dad was a jazz musician.

  • And he worked late at night.

  • When I think about him, he was a strong, capable man

  • who I didn't see much of because he was playing a lot at night,

  • and he would stay there.

  • But in later years, we got closer.

  • And my mom loved me to bits.

  • I had memories, lots of memories, of her.

  • So I was very fortunate in that I had a mother who loved me

  • and a dad who had strong character and creativity.

  • I remember him-- in his 80s, he wouldn't let the snow stand

  • in the way of driving.

  • He'd get out there and shovel.

  • And he went through World War II and that kind of thing.

  • And he was a good man.

  • So I had those role models.

  • And that's what it was like.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • RAY DALIO: And we talked about this earlier.

  • So many people don't have that benefit.

  • So I had all that wonderful luxury of family,

  • and then I could go to a school.

  • It was an average public school, but I could get that.

  • A lot of people today don't have that.

  • And I think that's a big issue.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Maybe we can transition there.

  • Because we were talking about the psychological wealth

  • of having a good family.

  • But then there's an economic component.

  • And you've been talking a lot about wealth inequality

  • and populism, and I thought maybe

  • you could talk a little bit more about that here.

  • RAY DALIO: OK.

  • Look this is not an ideological--

  • I just want to be clear on it.

  • As I look at this, I look at the practicality of it and so on.

  • And I'm dealing with economics.

  • And there's a mechanics that is, as a result of this,

  • leading to two economies.

  • So they're hidden in the economic numbers, the averages.

  • If you want to go on LinkedIn, I wrote two pieces

  • that you might find interesting on LinkedIn.

  • I divided the top 40% from the bottom 60%, the majority

  • of people, and I looked at, what is the economy

  • of the majority of people like?

  • And if you were to look at that economy,

  • it is a terrible economy.

  • It has not grown.

  • It's the only population that has rising death

  • rates, from opiates from suicides, the greatest

  • change in incomes.

  • It's a bad economy.

  • And then there's this economy on the top.

  • And I divided it 60%.

  • I could have divided it 20%, 80%,

  • and the picture would be basically the same, not only

  • in terms of usefulness and so on,

  • the death rates rising all of this.

  • So it's a phenomenon.

  • And it's coming as a result of a number of things.

  • Technology's a big influence on that.

  • Globalization, in many ways, is a big influence on that.

  • There are other things.

  • But anyway, that exists.

  • If you have rich and poor together and living

  • next to each other in the same community,

  • and they share a budget where they have to divide the pie,

  • and you have an economic downturn,

  • you're going to have a conflict.

  • You're going to have some form of conflict.

  • And so populism is an extension of that.

  • This isn't the first time this happened.

  • Like I say, everything's another one of those.

  • So in the study on populism, which is also on LinkedIn,

  • if you're interested in reading it,

  • I looked at 14 populist cases and what

  • is a classic, iconic populist case like,

  • and how do they work?

  • And so you can read about those.

  • And there was an iconic way of populism.

  • So that dynamic of that disparity, that problem,

  • which I think will be particularly important

  • when we have the next economic downturn, which I think,

  • probably--

  • I'm almost certain it will be before the next presidential

  • election, which means that I think

  • there'll be a lot of polarity, and I think it's a big issue.

  • So that's the issue.

  • It's both an issue of equity, and it's

  • an issue of practicality that we have to deal with that.

  • I would say it should be a national initiative, I would

  • say, led by the president or somebody in which you

  • take the metrics.

  • I give metrics for that boy part of the population.

  • You could look at the metrics.

  • And if you have metrics, is it improving?

  • Or is it worsening?

  • And what does it look like?

  • And then you have initiatives of how to be able to deal with it.

  • I think that economically, there are

  • many things that can be done.

  • I live in Connecticut.

  • Connecticut has the highest per capita income in the country.

  • But it consists of rich people next to a lot of poor people,

  • and the averages exist, and she works

  • in the school system with what are

  • called disengaged and disconnected youth.

  • A disengaged student is one who goes to school

  • but really doesn't study for tests, doesn't take the tests,

  • fails, is basically a failing student.

  • And a disconnected is one that doesn't go to school.

  • They don't even know where they are.

  • They don't come to school.

  • 22% of the students in Connecticut

  • are either disengaged or disconnected.

  • And you look at the reasons for that.

  • And you look at the cost of what that means.

  • There are programs--

  • I won't get into this a lot.

  • But there are programs that help to keep the kids in schools

  • and get them engaged that are needlessly not in there.

  • And yet if they graduate from high school,

  • the incarceration rates change.

  • The crime rates change.

  • Average cost of incarceration is between 85 and $125,000 a year.

  • So you think of the cost of the society that is having that.

  • Anyway, there are those kinds of issues

  • that I think have to be looked at, essentially, forthrightly.

  • That's got to be viewed as an issue.

  • There's got to be metrics.

  • And there's got to be processes in place for dealing with it.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Yeah.

  • RAY DALIO: And that's our biggest economic issue.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Right.

  • If you had a magic wand and you could just

  • write three pieces of policy that

  • could be passed by our Congress and approved by the Senate,

  • what would they be to solve this issue that's

  • going on right now?

  • Or do you believe it more of a private issue?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, again, I believe

  • in idea meritocratic decision.

  • I think that the big issue, like I

  • was answering before this other question, before we started.

  • I think the biggest issue is how we deal with conflict

  • and what are the principles that unite us

  • and to bring people together and that sense of, OK,

  • working it through and working it out in a bit

  • less selfish way so that we do healthy things.

  • I would [INAUDIBLE] we would deal with that.

  • The other particular issue-- like I

  • said, I would say there should be a national commission

  • to address, what are the practical ways of dealing

  • with such issues and also clear metrics so there's owning

  • the results of those changes.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Yeah, after the post-war period,

  • we had this situation where the threat of World War II

  • united all Americans towards one cause.

  • And after World War II, it led to a lot of social progress.

  • And I thought after 9/11 happened,

  • we had a period of time where we came together,

  • but then it just collapsed.

  • RAY DALIO: Let me just be clear.

  • One of the things that scares me, if you look at history--

  • the history of populism is really a 1930s phenomenon

  • because you'll see in this piece that the wealth gap became

  • just top 1/10 of 1% of our population's net worth

  • is equal to the bottom 90% of the population's net worth.

  • So that polarity-- you go back to the 1930s,

  • after the depression, 1936, 1937, and that

  • led to the era of populism.

  • There's left and there's right and there's a conflict.

  • And a lot of countries chose a strong populist leader.

  • Strong leaders tend to be more confrontational,

  • tend to be more militaristic, tend to be more nationalistic.

  • And that was that period.

  • In that period, interestingly, four democracies

  • became dictatorships, chose to, to try to bring order to it.

  • And one of the common ways of gathering support

  • is to have conflict with an enemy, a foreign enemy.

  • So 9/11 brings people together.

  • A common enemy brings people together along that.

  • That's a dangerous dynamic.

  • So when we're dealing with this, I

  • would say that it's more like we have

  • to start to figure out how to deal with these common problems

  • and try to deal with them a more together.

  • That doesn't mean not being tough,

  • but it means being tough collectively, I think.

  • I'm sorry I interrupted your question,

  • but I just wanted to emphasize that particular dynamic.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Thanks.

  • Yeah, I see people more identifying

  • for their political party or their own identity

  • and not as much as, we're all in this together.

  • It seems like we're splintering here in the country.

  • RAY DALIO: It's this whole idea meritocratic thing.

  • Like, everybody throws out, I think this.

  • I think that.

  • Who gives a damn what you think?

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • Just because thinking it doesn't make it true.

  • Does everybody think because they think it, it's true?

  • How do you resolve and get at what's true?

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: So it's about creating that contract,

  • where we can actually have the rules of having a conversation.

  • RAY DALIO: Yeah, how do we figure out what's true

  • and what to do about it?

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • So going to you, you practice meditation.

  • What got you into meditation, and what has it done for you?

  • RAY DALIO: The Beatles in 1969.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: All right, next question.

  • RAY DALIO: They went to India, and they meditated.

  • And they came back and sounded interesting.

  • And I started meditating in 1960 and it has changed my life.

  • I would recommend.

  • I do transcendental meditation.

  • There are sorts of different types

  • of meditation that [INAUDIBLE].

  • It has changed my life.

  • It has been so powerful.

  • And it's probably the biggest gift

  • that I can give anybody because it gives you--

  • I'll described it, I guess, briefly.

  • It connects your conscious mind with your subconscious mind

  • and gives you an equanimity and a creativity

  • that you ordinarily wouldn't have.

  • And the reason it does that, mechanistically,

  • the way it does it is by having a mantra, which is a word

  • doesn't have a meaning.

  • It's a sound.

  • A popular one would be "om."

  • So you repeat that with your breath,

  • and that means that you get rid of your thoughts,

  • because if you sit there and say,

  • I'm going to try not to think, you can't do that.

  • Thoughts just jump around.

  • And so till you get rid of your thoughts,

  • you go to this mantra.

  • You repeat it over and over again.

  • And so when you pay attention to that,

  • you can't be thinking about something.

  • And then eventually the mantra disappears,

  • and you're in a subconscious state.

  • And when you're in that subconscious state,

  • you're neither conscious or unconscious.

  • You're in your subconscious state.

  • So it's relaxing, and it's great,

  • and it gives you that equanimity.

  • But it also is where creativity comes from, because you

  • don't muscle creativity.

  • You don't say, I'm going to work and get creative.

  • It's more like relaxation.

  • You take a hot shower, and this great idea comes to you.

  • So it bubbles up from your subconscious.

  • And so it enhances creativity.

  • And also, I would say, one of the best things that one can do

  • is reconcile one's subconscious emotional self

  • with one's intellectual self, because if you

  • can get those things aligned--

  • like, if they work in both ways--

  • you're going to make better decisions.

  • So meditation has given me that kind of equanimity.

  • So I look at things, things I might not want to happen,

  • but I can approach them calmly and better.

  • So it's a big deal.

  • It's been a big deal for me.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Has it helped you analyze your emotions

  • in the heat of an argument?

  • RAY DALIO: Oh, yeah.

  • It helps you go above yourself and your situation.

  • And you look at, oh, there's Ray,

  • and there's the circumstances and there

  • it is and know this thing happens this way.

  • And OK, so what should be done?

  • Because if you're in it, if you're

  • in that blizzard of things coming at you

  • and you don't distinguish what type of thing

  • is it, what principle at that higher level,

  • how should I deal with it--

  • you're either going to be in it, or you're

  • going to be above it more at that principle,

  • looking down at it and me and that level.

  • And it's much better to be at this level and then go in it

  • and do.

  • So it helps to bring me into that level.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: I find myself in this trap

  • where I'll start meditating, and then I'll

  • start feeling much better and good.

  • And then I'll say, oh, I don't need meditation anymore,

  • so I'll stop.

  • RAY DALIO: It's been so long for me that what happens

  • is I feel good when I meditate.

  • I can feel the difference.

  • I can say, I need to go meditate.

  • It's that refreshing-- so it's always good.

  • It always feels good.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Yeah, and that's

  • been an advantage, too, when you're in the investments

  • markets when there's so much noise going around you.

  • Does it allow you to just focus on what's important?

  • RAY DALIO: Yeah, or life--

  • family, circumstances, whatever it is.

  • We all have those things.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Now, since the book has come out,

  • what have your thoughts been about the reactions

  • to the book?

  • Did you expect the reactions to go the way they currently are?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, when in 2010, I started

  • to get unwanted publicity attention.

  • And so I put out what our internal principles were.

  • And it was just PDF file, and it was

  • downloaded 3 and 1/2 million times,

  • and I got a lot of, thank yous.

  • I just put it out so it would be understood.

  • And that prompted me to leave the book.

  • I'm, as I say, at my inclination to be

  • much more of a private person.

  • I put out this book, and I then decided to go on social media

  • to try to explain and interact with that.

  • And I've found it to be just wonderful.

  • I'm finding it's having a big impact.

  • People are giving me thanks.

  • They're asking questions about it.

  • It's having my desired impact of passing along when I wanted.

  • And I'm actually really enjoying the interactions

  • on social media, because it has a certain personal list,

  • even though it's impersonal.

  • So it's good.

  • I feel good about it.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • Now, the apps you mentioned in the book.

  • When are you planning to release those?

  • RAY DALIO: Six or nine months or something like that.

  • When they're all ready.

  • I'd like to make them available for everybody.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: So we're going to take audience questions now.

  • So if you have a question, please

  • go ahead and jump on the mic.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you so much for coming.

  • I really enjoyed your commentary about the secret of life

  • and finding your blind spots.

  • And when you talk about that, it reminds me of our own Project

  • Oxygen, and we talk a lot about a lot of same principles

  • you have in terms of making decisions.

  • So how do you address that?

  • I think one way that we address it is through diversity.

  • RAY DALIO: I'm sorry, address what?

  • AUDIENCE: Finding your blind spots

  • versus using consensus as a way to measure believability

  • and correctness.

  • So how do you balance those two things,

  • like having everyone having a consensus

  • about an idea versus making sure you

  • have a truly comprehensive range of opinions?

  • RAY DALIO: OK.

  • What you want is the smartest people most demonstrated

  • believable people who will then disagree with each other

  • and disagree with you about what the best path is.

  • Don't confuse consensus as everybody.

  • Don't make the mistake of thinking that a lot of people

  • have valuable opinions when they may not.

  • So you want to try to get to what is the most valuable ones,

  • and you want to try to identify that.

  • So just like if you we're going to-- you

  • have a medical problem, and you think, OK,

  • what should I do about my medical problem?

  • You don't want to ask you're just your friends.

  • You want to find out who are the most believable people who

  • will disagree with you and each other.

  • So I gave the health case in the book about, OK,

  • you find this doctor.

  • You find that doctor and then who argue.

  • But one of the greatest ways of going

  • through this type of triangulation

  • is if you get really capable people who

  • will argue with each other, if you

  • have the triangulation about what to do,

  • that'll probably give you a good indication--

  • OK, well, that might be the right thing to do.

  • And you'll learn.

  • And when you don't have triangulation,

  • that's where the interesting learning really

  • becomes because, if you hear two sides of an argument

  • and you hear that debate and then

  • ask your own questions and so on, you begin to probe,

  • and you've gained a richer understanding of the subject

  • matter than you ever could have, and then

  • you can come to that level and get that.

  • So I'm not arguing consensus decision-making.

  • I'm arguing believability-weighted

  • decision-making.

  • Believability-weighted decision-making means

  • finding out, in various objective ways,

  • in a particular community, who would be more reliable

  • and not and then go all into the room

  • and have the believability-weighted

  • decision-making made.

  • That is a most effective approach.

  • I don't know if I've answered your question.

  • AUDIENCE: I guess it's hard, because subjectivity is--

  • and I think especially in this era of social pressures.

  • And I actually think there's three yous.

  • There's our you.

  • And then there's the intellectual you

  • and then there's the pressures of, who should we be?

  • And I guess it's hard, when you have something subjective,

  • how do you know that it's something that's-- this is

  • getting abstract.

  • RAY DALIO: Well, the first thing you have to do

  • here is say, do you want to find that out?

  • How are you going to create your idea meritocratic

  • decision-making?

  • Will you not compromise it?

  • Because if you are convinced that you must operate this way,

  • you will find the solutions.

  • Almost everybody is not really on that path.

  • You just tell me it's hard.

  • In the book, I'm giving you structure of literally

  • the things that we're doing.

  • There's a lot that you can go and just follow

  • that, because you said, I can't compromise that.

  • But as long as you're going to keep saying,

  • people say it's going to be hard to have idea

  • meritocratic decision-making and have thoughtful disagreement

  • and do these things, believability-weighted

  • decision-making, you won't have it,

  • and you'll be losing the competitive advantages.

  • So in your gut, do you really need it?

  • Do you really want it?

  • That's the most important question to answer.

  • AUDIENCE: Yeah, I think that's good.

  • I think it sounds like you base that value of wanting

  • that truth and that's how you come

  • to a comfort of this believability metric

  • as dynamic and rigorous.

  • RAY DALIO: Find it out.

  • Figure it out, and get it.

  • Only goal.

  • Next person?

  • AUDIENCE: Right.

  • Thanks for your book.

  • I listened to it in the audiobook version.

  • Your voice is very familiar now.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • One of the things about transparency

  • that you talk about--

  • you argue that it's great to have it,

  • and you give just one exception that itched me

  • when I read it or listened to it, which was sharing

  • the compensation information from the employees,

  • and you gave arguments why that wouldn't work.

  • But I could use the arguments for transparency against that.

  • So I was wondering how you approach that.

  • RAY DALIO: OK.

  • First of all, everybody to do their own, and there's no--

  • you can do it one way.

  • You can do it the other way.

  • And who knows exactly which way to do it.

  • And some times I say to myself, if you

  • wrestle about which way to do it so much and you struggle at it,

  • you probably could just flip a coin

  • and decide, because they're probably about equally good.

  • So the question at hand that's being referred

  • is, do I make everybody's individual compensation

  • transparent?

  • And the reason I chose not to do that is I

  • instead make very clear metrics and compensation levels

  • by groups of people rather than putting the particular names

  • to that so that everybody knows if you're

  • doing this well with that generalization,

  • you know where the comp levels are for others.

  • And the reason I did that is because when I found myself

  • in discussions with, is an evaluation

  • of how that guy is doing with other people.

  • And that wasn't good.

  • In other words, if all of a sudden you say,

  • Harry's earning this amount.

  • And now I have to describe my relationship and how

  • I'm evaluating Harry, and you're going

  • to now have to be the judge of how I'm evaluating Harry

  • and all that type of stuff.

  • And that's not what you're going to be able to be good at.

  • Nor should we do that, just in terms of compensation.

  • So I'm radically transparent.

  • The message and the conversation I want to have

  • here is, do you want to be radically transparent?

  • I want to make sure we don't get into one of those,

  • exactly how radically transparent,

  • because I don't really care too much about that.

  • Do it either way is OK, fine.

  • But how are you doing on the general concepts

  • that I'm talking about?

  • OK, what about the taping?

  • What about the those kinds of idea meritocratic, those bigger

  • issues?

  • Because just like the question before, OK,

  • how do we do it, OK, the big things

  • you can we can wrestle around here

  • and how you choose that individual thing.

  • I'm just describing how I chose it and why.

  • AUDIENCE: Hi, I just wanted to get your perspective

  • on how you see your organizational principles being

  • adopted more widely in more different organizations.

  • In particular, I think you had the relative luxury, I would

  • say, of being able to being the head of your organization

  • and being able to design your organization

  • to operate according to those principles and effectively say,

  • if you don't like the way our principles work

  • in this organization, you can get lost.

  • Most of us are not in that position.

  • I was wondering, do you see these principles

  • being adopted more widely by people starting organizations

  • that operate according to a set of principles from day one?

  • Or do you have any advice on how those

  • of us at more of the bottom level of the hierarchy

  • can influence things at a more local work group level?

  • RAY DALIO: Very simply, I think that those people who

  • have the ability to control their organizations

  • will consider this way of operating.

  • And as you say, the entrepreneurs,

  • the people who can do that, will make their choices.

  • And I know that I'm having an effect on that,

  • and that's helping, but that's good.

  • And then people who don't then will

  • start to think about the choices that they

  • have as to where they work.

  • You can come to some environment that

  • is more idea meritocratic and one

  • that's less idea meritocratic, and you've

  • got a lot of choices.

  • And so for the people running organizations,

  • that's also something that's attractive to being

  • able to attract those people.

  • You have to know what your personal values are.

  • For me, I could not work in a place

  • in which I didn't have the opportunity

  • to make sense of something.

  • Like those young people that criticize me--

  • that is the way it should be in order to do that.

  • And I could not work there.

  • For me, it would be just like eating shit.

  • I couldn't do it.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • So it's a personal choice.

  • If you feel that's important, you

  • will then gravitate to organizations

  • that are more idea meritocratic, and evolution

  • will take its course, both because of the entrepreneur

  • and because the individual's doing that.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: I'm going to take

  • an online question real quick.

  • Measurement is a big theme in your book.

  • How do you approach measuring teams

  • whose work has only second order effects--

  • for example, product aesthetics or who

  • prevent bad things from happening so you

  • don't have the counterfactuals?

  • RAY DALIO: OK, I want to say that in every one

  • of these types of questions in which there

  • is a particular dilemma or problem to solve,

  • it starts off with a mind or a group of minds

  • thinking, how do I solve that problem?

  • And doing that in an idea meritocratic way

  • will give you the best answer to solving that problem.

  • And that is the most important thing.

  • So when I'm asked that question, I

  • might give my particular answer to the question.

  • But if I just gave my particular answer to the question,

  • I wouldn't convey the fact that you have the power individually

  • to do that anyway.

  • So we all face that question.

  • When you have a group and you take the second order

  • consequences, and how do you know the decomposition of that?

  • OK, well we can take a little test here of sorts,

  • and we can take each person's ideas

  • and say, OK, now we have to figure out

  • the best way to do that.

  • And we can then gather those best ways

  • and come up with that best way, and that is the path.

  • That's always the path.

  • If you understand that path, you'll get to the best way

  • you can get to, and that's better than the ways

  • that you have.

  • And then it becomes clear.

  • So then, in our particular case, there

  • is a series of evaluations that are very clear evaluations

  • that people make themselves, in a believability way, about

  • all dimensions of that.

  • So sometimes you can measure results directly.

  • In other words, you can measure somebody's batting average

  • or something-- the equivalent.

  • And sometimes it needs a critique.

  • If we're asking does somebody sing better than somebody else,

  • there's no quantitative measure for that type of measure

  • to see that, but we could sort of say they're critiquing.

  • So such measures can happen at all levels.

  • And so we do that.

  • Whatever the measurements that we come up with jointly,

  • and we think, OK, that's good measurements,

  • we can create metrics about it.

  • So qualitative things--

  • I give the example, populism.

  • Well, how do I measure?

  • But populism happens over and over again.

  • It's a qualitative thing.

  • But I could start to create that process.

  • I've found that, by and large, almost anything

  • that I can think of I can express in an algorithm,

  • in a rule.

  • The real question is, how do you get to that good rule?

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Excellent.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you for speaking with us today, Mr. Dalio.

  • My name is Max.

  • And as I'm reading through this book, which I'm thoroughly

  • enjoying, one question I keep coming back

  • to is assessing the right timing.

  • So because we don't operate in a vacuum,

  • coming up with the correct decision is one thing.

  • Knowing to be radically truthful when giving feedback

  • is one thing.

  • But how do you assess the timing around giving

  • that type of feedback or coming to those

  • or executing those decisions?

  • RAY DALIO: You know--

  • well, in the chapter on decision-making

  • there's a section on timing, actually.

  • So you might go to that section on timing.

  • And you know, by and large--

  • I think you're also asking timing for the feedback.

  • AUDIENCE: Right.

  • RAY DALIO: If you're asking timing for the feedback,

  • I would say it's virtually continuous.

  • So that dot collector thing that I

  • did that is giving everybody feedback from everybody

  • and causing people to go above that is happening continuously

  • in every moment of the day.

  • So people have a 360 review continuously by a lot of people

  • all the time.

  • And so then they can step back and see the patterns.

  • They can look at it daily if they care to.

  • And they can step back and see the bigger picture.

  • But it really is very advantageous by doing

  • it continuously because you can connect it to the specific.

  • In other words, a lot of times somebody

  • will give you an evaluation, and there's a million--

  • an annual review.

  • Think about an annual review and how silly that is.

  • If I say, OK, now you're doing these things,

  • but you can't connect it to the specific.

  • By being able to connect it all the time to the specific,

  • you could look back at that and have consultation

  • with other people-- say, I handled it this way.

  • What do you think, and what--

  • and you can make that very tangible.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you.

  • AUDIENCE: I have a question regarding the organization

  • group decision.

  • You mentioned that you want disagreements to be discussed.

  • I'm wondering if we spend too much time

  • to persuade each other, [INAUDIBLE] disagreements.

  • This may take some time to reach the consensus in the group,

  • and miss the opportunity because it would take too much time

  • on the group consensus.

  • RAY DALIO: Well, in the book there's--

  • if left-- right.

  • You're talking about a risk that could exist.

  • It's expressed in the book on how to do that

  • so that it doesn't do that.

  • And there's a whole different way.

  • But the important thing here is to explore quickly

  • that notion of how you should make the decision.

  • Because I find since everything happens over and over again

  • on a particular case, if you get down to a very clear way of how

  • you make the decision effectively,

  • you'll be able to move past it.

  • I find that the inefficiency of organizations in which people

  • argue endlessly and don't resolve it is a terrible thing.

  • But you need the protocols.

  • You need the tools.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you.

  • I will read the book.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: I'm going to take

  • an online question real quick.

  • In your book you talk about making decisions

  • as expected value calculations.

  • I find estimating payoff a lot easier than estimating

  • probability of success.

  • Given that people in general are bad at estimating

  • probabilities, can you share some techniques

  • you've found to work well?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, one of the things that I found valuable

  • was if I write my decision rule out--

  • depending on the nature of the decision rule--

  • I can test how it would have worked in the past

  • and get some sense of it.

  • Like in my investment decision rules,

  • I say they have to be timeless and universal.

  • So that means I test them from 1900 to the present.

  • I test them in all different countries.

  • And being able to specify them then

  • allows me to get a sense of distribution

  • of those types of probabilities.

  • Some things are qualitative and it's different.

  • But I think that being aware of what

  • I was describing in the book of how

  • to think about that probability helps you.

  • Some things-- it's just the mind has got to do

  • and by triangulating with others.

  • I think in my business I tend to think

  • about that probability of decision-making

  • because I also have one of the benefits

  • that I get very clear paybacks.

  • I get graded every day, essentially,

  • by the performance.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Right.

  • AUDIENCE: Hi.

  • So having read the book I definitely

  • agree with you that having principles is a good thing.

  • And they help you spot another one

  • of those kind of situations.

  • But one thing that I didn't quite see covered in the book,

  • and I'm curious to hear about, is

  • at what point do you decide that you've

  • seen enough of these situations that they need a principle.

  • Because you could have a principle for every event

  • that you see.

  • But then you might be overfitting there.

  • On the other hand, you could wait

  • for too many of these, at which point

  • you're probably overgeneralizing, so--

  • RAY DALIO: I think what--

  • AUDIENCE: What's the meta principle?

  • RAY DALIO: My experience is it's just like a big thing comes

  • along, and do you start there?

  • OK.

  • Now do you have that?

  • AUDIENCE: So it's the size of--

  • RAY DALIO: And then what-- you know, OK.

  • Now, you're doing it.

  • And now another big thing comes along,

  • and you have one for that.

  • And if you do that then you'll find out whether you're

  • getting to too small stuff.

  • But you probably won't have a problem

  • with the too small stuff because you will be

  • struggling with the big stuff.

  • So I have-- I don't know how many principals

  • are in the book, actually-- but anyway, a few hundred.

  • And the reason was because I needed each one.

  • What you find is when you encounter something again,

  • then you start to-- is it a subprinciple?

  • Is it another principle?

  • And you get them organized.

  • But the way I did it was I wrote them first on paper.

  • But then I started dropping them in the BlackBerry

  • when I was thinking.

  • And I would take that-- bits and pieces--

  • and I would collect them--

  • just your thoughts.

  • So just start collecting them.

  • Make sure you do it with the big ones.

  • And, yeah, you don't have to do it with everything.

  • AUDIENCE: So the size of event.

  • Thank you.

  • AUDIENCE: I think the process of decision-making and conflict

  • resolution that you're talking about makes a lot of sense.

  • But I'm wondering if a precondition for it

  • is that the group agrees on the general goal,

  • even if not how to do it.

  • And so that works well in Bridgewater, here at Google.

  • But in the public policy arena I'm not sure

  • how that works, because people represent different interest

  • groups, and they fundamentally have a different objective.

  • Do you see any modifications as required for that case?

  • RAY DALIO: I think in all relationships

  • the beginning is defining how you're

  • going to be with each other--

  • clear rules.

  • So Bridgewater's rules are different than Google's rules,

  • which are different from the government's rules.

  • Then within any organization, there

  • are subgroups that can decide how

  • are we going to behave with each other in a way that

  • doesn't conflict with that.

  • So I would suspect that if I was president of the United States

  • I would have an ideal meritocratic way that

  • might be different than Donald Trump has,

  • who might be different than somebody else has.

  • So you, within your group, can decide, OK,

  • do we want to be idea do we [INAUDIBLE] meritocratic?

  • Can we talk about these things in this way?

  • Do we want to be transparent and make those types of decisions.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you.

  • AUDIENCE: Mr. Dalio, thanks for sharing.

  • My question pertains to the dot system that you mention.

  • So you seem to have calculated the believable score

  • for a person over time, collecting information

  • to help you with decision-making process.

  • Has there been your dot system been proven wrong

  • where you calculate, say, someone's believable score

  • to be very low, when over time has been shown,

  • actually, this person is very believable in his--

  • has that been shown?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, I think the way--

  • I think of it more like the way that you're

  • sort of semi-describing it.

  • If over time it's shown to be wrong--

  • quote, "wrong,"-- that must mean that you've

  • evolved to the point where you believe

  • that that verdict is reliable.

  • So the evolutionary system must have taken you to that spot.

  • The way I look at it is with sample size and with a lot

  • of consensus, or processes of coming up with those

  • algorithms, you have an evolutionary process--

  • more data, more process--

  • to get at the definition of what is true.

  • And then it's that mechanism that's

  • always constantly evaluating, so that there

  • are statistical ways of measuring

  • for a group as a whole how accurate it is.

  • You might have something that might be something as simple

  • as, I would have a test.

  • Like, I can test how you know math.

  • And that could be an objective measure.

  • In some areas you can't have that objectivity.

  • On some notion of creativity much [INAUDIBLE]

  • you'll have different measures.

  • So the point that I'm saying is that you're constantly

  • never good enough.

  • And you're constantly evolving toward better.

  • And that is the best way--

  • by comparison to other ways--

  • which don't do that.

  • AUDIENCE: And is there a plan to open source

  • this so that the system can be shared and used

  • by many organizations?

  • RAY DALIO: Yes.

  • I'm going-- as I say--

  • I'm going to put that out so that it would open source

  • so people can write their own algorithms

  • and agree on together what the best algorithms are

  • so we can make that evolution.

  • And, as I say, that probably--

  • I don't know how many months-- but, maybe a year or something

  • down the line.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Question from me--

  • when you're talking about the evolving process,

  • sometimes it can feel like a shot in the gut

  • over and over again.

  • What do you do to make yourself feel like, OK, you know,

  • this is critical in my work product but not critical

  • as me as a human-- like are there some practices you use?

  • RAY DALIO: I think it is critical for you as a human.

  • Meaning, I think what you're like and knowing what--

  • and if you can get to the point where you say,

  • I really know what I'm like, and I can now objectively

  • deal with that to get anything I want.

  • That's fabulous power.

  • If you're stuck with it's a tragedy that I'm

  • weak at this thing, or I don't want to know about it,

  • you won't get anything you want.

  • So I think it's a personal thing as well as a work thing.

  • AUDIENCE: Thanks.

  • RAY DALIO: You think that?

  • I mean, I've raised my hand--

  • ask you to raise your hand.

  • Do you think that that makes sense?

  • Yes, or-- yes, if you raise your hand.

  • OK.

  • AUDIENCE: Thanks so much for coming.

  • I started reading the principles--

  • PDF-- that was released, I think,

  • a couple of years ago and happy to see now

  • that you've released the book.

  • These ideas about radical transparency in the workplace

  • have been, I think, coming more to the cultural zeitgeist.

  • So that's really good.

  • Your principles have made you a lot of money.

  • You've had a very successful career and that's awesome.

  • And so my question is when you think

  • about your principle of how you've

  • chosen to spend your time, since you could have retired

  • many years ago, I'm curious how you've thought about that.

  • And in terms of like, right now, I

  • think you're using your time to promote

  • these ideas of principles in decision-making and radical

  • transparency.

  • And I think you know, hopefully, it

  • will have a big effect in companies in the world.

  • And so I'm curious why you've chosen to do it now

  • instead of earlier.

  • And in general, how you think about--

  • because you haven't needed to work for a long time--

  • and so I'm wondering why you chose to continue to work,

  • and how you think about spending your time.

  • RAY DALIO: Yeah.

  • So first of all, I'm not saying that anything that I'm doing

  • is the right--

  • in answering your question-- is the right way to do things.

  • I'm just saying it is, for me, the way--

  • I'm answering your question just how I do that.

  • I played the market since I was 12 years old and I love it.

  • And I'll play them till I die.

  • I like the economics.

  • I just-- it's a game.

  • I love it.

  • OK?

  • But I saw a number of years ago, if you step back

  • and you look at yourself from a higher level,

  • and you take where are your age, where are you in this cycle--

  • as I became 60 and then, and so on,

  • I recognized that it's my responsibility to transition

  • well.

  • To make your parents, you--

  • think about your parents and you.

  • It's the same dynamic, OK?

  • How did they transition well so that you're good without them.

  • It becomes almost an instinctual type of thing.

  • And these things come to you at these things.

  • In terms of retirement, I love my game.

  • I love my mission and so on.

  • But it becomes that there is actually

  • a great pleasure and a necessity to have others successful.

  • Me-- I've gone in.

  • I've fought battles.

  • I've won battles.

  • I've accumulated it.

  • To go in and fight another battle--

  • I could go do that, but that's not the most exciting necessary

  • thing for me to do.

  • So the most exciting necessary thing for me to do

  • is to pass those things on.

  • And that's what I have to recognize as my responsibility.

  • And just like I described it, when Joseph Campbell and I read

  • this, says it's totally right.

  • Peace-- peace for your parents will

  • come when you're good without them and everything is fine.

  • That's true.

  • So it becomes an instinctual type of thing.

  • For me, like, retire--

  • like, I'm just--

  • I never viewed it that way because I never

  • viewed work that way.

  • I just want to go have fun.

  • I just want to have a blast.

  • I'm curious.

  • I want to do a lot of things.

  • I will be curious and do a lot of things.

  • There's a million things to do.

  • I didn't want to also run my organization anymore.

  • I want it to have that culture and pass it on and be

  • successful without me.

  • And I was able to transition to others who will then run it.

  • I'm chairman and I'll still do the investment thing.

  • But whatever it is that excites you out

  • of free choice and no longer obligation.

  • I don't want to be obligated.

  • Obligated is also a sense of responsibility.

  • So I want to handle my responsibilities well and then

  • be free of them.

  • Those are the things that motivated me.

  • AUDIENCE: Cool.

  • Thank you so much.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: I want to take an online question.

  • Ray, how do you address the tolerance paradox

  • in an organization?

  • While striving for radical transparency,

  • you may have some people who will argue views

  • that undermine open discussion.

  • RAY DALIO: Well, I'd want to know

  • what the views that undermine open discussion are

  • and what the merit is and find out why would you

  • not have that open discussion?

  • I don't understand that.

  • Maybe is it a time constraint?

  • Is it some other thing?

  • I'd have to see what the impediment

  • to the open discussion would be.

  • AUDIENCE: I'm interested in reading the book.

  • But I'm just curious, what's your believability score

  • at Bridgewater?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, I have the highest believability

  • score in the company.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • But it depends on what.

  • We rate different levels of believability for what?

  • So I'm referring to the general score, OK?

  • That's not determined by me.

  • But anyway, it is determined in other ways

  • that would be objective.

  • But if I take a whole bunch of areas,

  • I have much worse believability scores.

  • There are many who have much higher believability

  • scores in different areas.

  • It has these something like 60 different believability scores.

  • AUDIENCE: Thanks.

  • AUDIENCE: Hi.

  • Thanks for sharing all the principles that you've

  • acquired over your lifetime.

  • So thank you for that.

  • My question is slightly off-topic.

  • And I don't know if I'll have another opportunity

  • to ask this question in person, so I'm

  • going to ask you anyways.

  • I'm a big believer in value investment.

  • And my belief's been kind of formed by reading of the books

  • by Ben Graham and Seth Klarman.

  • But only recently I read the book by David Svenson.

  • And he mentions that the biggest determinant

  • in portfolio returns is not stock picking

  • but capital allocation.

  • And I want to--

  • I'm wondering what's your views on that?

  • RAY DALIO: Well, because I think what he's referring to,

  • that when he distinguishes stock picking, he's referring

  • to, within an asset class, the individual securities chosen,

  • as distinct from the differences when he says

  • capital allocation, he's referring

  • to the different types of asset classes.

  • I presume that that's what he's referring to in that way,

  • and that's correct.

  • In other words, the average stock

  • is 60% correlated with the average other stock,

  • so there's a high correlation of stocks.

  • They will go up and down together.

  • And because of that, you're going to--

  • it almost, past a certain point, doesn't matter how many stocks.

  • I cover that, by the way, in the book

  • in terms of the math of literally

  • how if I take anything that's 60% correlated,

  • and I put more than 10 in, the marginal benefits

  • of diversification are virtually nil, so that you're

  • going to have the stock market or something like that.

  • And then some alpha is the deviation relative to that.

  • Whereas, if you have an asset class--

  • different asset classes--

  • they'll behave very uncorrelated with that.

  • And so portfolio construction based on capital allocation,

  • as he calls it, is very important

  • in terms of saying that's really the key most important thing,

  • because of the nature of the correlations of those pieces

  • to get that balance right.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you.

  • AUDIENCE: Thanks for the book.

  • It's great.

  • What is Bridgewater's mid-term two-year economic outlook

  • for the US?

  • RAY DALIO: I think we're going to have a lot of stimulation

  • into--

  • a lot of profit growth, a lot of stimulation--

  • into capacity constraints, and that that's

  • going to raise interest rates.

  • And then there's a sensitivity to those interest rate changes.

  • It's going to put the Fed in a particularly difficult

  • position, other central banks around the world

  • in a particularly difficult decision.

  • And I think that probably, as you get later in the year,

  • you're going to start to see the question of how does interest

  • rates or Fed policy affect the markets as a general thing

  • and when that will become negative when that's a problem.

  • Because we're coming into the end of the cycle,

  • late in the cycle.

  • There's a cycle and there's capacity limitations

  • and stimulation.

  • And as you go late into the cycle the Fed never--

  • central banks never get it exactly right.

  • And that's why we have recessions.

  • We always have recessions.

  • You can't get away from them when that balancing

  • act becomes difficult.

  • That balancing act will become increasingly difficult

  • at the end of this year and the beginning part of next year.

  • And it will be manifest probably in market behavior.

  • And then in terms of then the downturn and the economic

  • recession-- because we always have them--

  • probably-- maybe later part of that--

  • 2019, or something along those lines.

  • But I can't be--

  • it would be something like that.

  • AUDIENCE: Right.

  • Thanks.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you for coming.

  • I appreciate--

  • RAY DALIO: My pleasure.

  • AUDIENCE: --your talk and presentation.

  • One question that I had was I know

  • that Bridgewater has been producing investment theses

  • for--

  • well, since the beginning and I think--

  • RAY DALIO: Investment what?

  • AUDIENCE: Theses.

  • RAY DALIO: Theses.

  • Yeah.

  • AUDIENCE: Yeah.

  • RAY DALIO: Principles.

  • Yeah.

  • AUDIENCE: Um-hmm.

  • To what extent are you willing to--

  • and maybe this is a request rather than anything else--

  • are you willing to open those up?

  • Also, possibly past ones and previous examples?

  • RAY DALIO: I did a 30 minute video called "How the Economic

  • Machine Works," which if you haven't seen, people think--

  • and so it exemplifies how I think

  • it's going to be helpful and not harmful to Bridgewater

  • for conveying economic principles and market

  • principles in general.

  • We will not get into our exact algorithms that are going to--

  • that we would say would lessen our ability

  • to do what we do well.

  • AUDIENCE: Of course.

  • RAY DALIO: But there'll be-- you know, I'm writing a book--

  • "Economic Investment Principles"-- which will--

  • I don't know-- it might be 18 months or so out there.

  • AUDIENCE: I'll look forward to it.

  • Thank you.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: Well, thank you, Ray, for joining us.

  • RAY DALIO: I think there are three--

  • you know your timeline.

  • You're the boss.

  • JORDAN THIBODEAU: We'll see if we can do it offline.

  • But thank you very much for joining us.

  • We really appreciate it.

  • You wrote an excellent book.

  • And I hope everyone goes and grabs it

  • because it's phenomenal.

  • Let's give Ray a round of applause.

  • RAY DALIO: Thank you.

  • [APPLAUSE]

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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達利歐 - "原則: 生活與工作" (Ray Dalio: "Principles: Life and Work" | Talks at Google)

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    Allen Ho 發佈於 2018 年 07 月 23 日
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