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  • It's a resource that has started wars and caused global market turmoil.

    石油是個開啟戰爭並引起全球市場一陣騷動的能源

  • Oil fuels more than half of the world's transportation like cars, planes, and trucks.

    全世界超過一半的交通運輸工具,像是車子、飛機跟卡車⋯⋯都靠石油做燃料

  • But in the age of electric vehicles and renewable energy - is the oil era over?

    但在電動車和再生能源興起的今日——難道石油的時代結束了嗎?

  • Well, it all depends who you ask.

    嗯,要看你是問誰

  • This chart from the International Energy Agency lays out the debate.

    從這張國際能源署的圖表就看出了不少討論

  • One scenario has oil peaking in the mid-2020s.

    一部分顯示在中期到 2020 餘年有個石油使用量高峰

  • And the other shows oil demand growing until 2040.

    另個則可看出石油需求量直到 2040 年都仍在成長

  • So, why the difference?

    那這有什麼不同?

  • Well, on one hand, climate policies are getting stricter.

    嗯,另一方面來說,氣候政策變更嚴

  • So, here in the EU, renewable energy sources account for 80% of new capacity

    所以像在歐盟,再生能源資源佔了 80 % 的量

  • and wind will become the number one source of electricity soon after 2030.

    風力發電很快會在 2030 年後成為第一名的能源

  • China, the world's largest polluter, is now leading the way in the push for clean power.

    最多人口產量的中國,現在則竭力找出乾淨能源的方法

  • Just take a look at the streets

    看看大街上

  • It's predicted one out of every four vehicles on the road in China will be electric by 2040.

    有預測指出,到 2040 年,中國路上每四輛車就有一部是電動車

  • And the total number of electric vehicles on the road worldwide

    且全部街上的電動車數量

  • is expected to reach nearly 300 million in just over two decades -

    預計能在 20 年內能達到近三億輛

  • there's only around 2 million today.

    而現在僅有 200 萬輛而已

  • More electric cars equals less gas guzzling.

    許多電動車意味著少一點的碳排量

  • Okay, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

    好啦,但是我們先別太有負擔

  • The International Energy Agency says it's too soon to write oil's obituary.

    國際能源署認為,這樣太快判石油死刑

  • Oil and gas still received two-fifths of global energy supply investment in 2016.

    石油跟瓦斯仍在 2016 取得五分之二的全球能源供應投資

  • That was less than electricity got for the first time ever

    那比電力首次拿到的投資的還少

  • but still much higher than investment in energy efficiency,

    但是還是遠高過能源效能、

  • and renewables in transportation and heating.

    運輸再生能源及跟熱能

  • Experts say it will be a long time before the infrastructure is in place

    專家解釋這在基礎建設尚未趕上電動車的普及前

  • for electric cars to overtake the streets.

    會需要很長的時間

  • And even then, there will still be demand for oil.

    甚至到那個時候,仍會有石油的需求

  • Oil will be a dominant energy source for emerging markets like India,

    石油會變成像是印度這樣的新興市場

  • and for industries like trucking, petrochemicals, shipping, and aviation.

    跟如貨運、石化產品跟航空業等產業的主要能源

  • One reason why these industries haven't backed off oil yet?

    一個這些產業還離不開石油的原因?

  • Well, prices are pretty low historically.

    就是因為目前油價為歷史新低

  • Back in 2014, the price for a barrel of crude oil traded above $100.

    回到 2014 年,一大桶的的原油要價超過 100 美元

  • Today it's around $60 - where it's expected to stay for a while.

    現在差不多在 60 元上下——這價錢被預期近期皆如此

  • So how did this happen?

    這怎麼發生的?

  • Put very simply, too much supply and not enough demand.

    簡單說,就是供給多、需求過少

  • In 2014, economic growth slowed in countries like China and Brazil -

    2014 年時,中國和巴西的經濟緩慢成長

  • which made oil demand go down.

    使得石油需求降低

  • At the same time, global oil supply was going up, fast.

    同時,全球油商供應開始提升更快速

  • The U.S. experienced an oil boom thanks to new technology -- shale drilling.

    拖了新科技的福,美國終於有了石油熱潮——利用頁岩取石油

  • Meanwhile OPEC, which is a cartel of oil-producing countries,

    同時,由諸多產石油國家的石油輸出國家組織

  • decided not to cut their own supply.

    決定不要降低石油的供給

  • And despite geopolitical tensions in countries like Iraq and Russia,

    儘管一些關係緊張的國家,如伊拉克及俄羅斯等區域

  • oil production didn't go down in those regions either.

    石油產量也沒有減少

  • It was good for consumers who pay less at the pump.

    這對將石油自用於交通用途的消費者而言是好的

  • But low prices hit oil producers and exporters hard.

    但低價也讓產油者及出口商面臨困境

  • Big oil companies like Shell and BP have responded to low oil prices

    像殼牌和英國石油公司就對低價有所回應

  • and increased regulations by trying todiversifytheir businesses.

    並藉著嘗試多元化其產業來增加收入

  • That's a fancy way of saying they're investing in other things besides oil.

    較漂亮的說法就是,他們投資除了油以外的事業

  • Some of that investment is going toward solar or wind

    有些投資在太陽能跟風力發電上

  • but most of it is going toward gas.

    不過大多是投資到天然氣裡

  • Exxon predicts demand for natural gas will grown more than any other energy source

    股票市值最高的石油公司埃克森美孚便預估,天然氣的需求量會遠高過其他能源資源

  • and by 2040, will make up a quarter of the global energy mix.

    直到 2040 ,會在全球能源總值上達到季額度

  • Some analysts say it'll take a long time for us to switch to alternative power sources,

    有些分析家認為,特別是當現今油價低落

  • especially when oil prices are so low.

    要讓人類轉乘使用替代能源需要長時間

  • But whether the oil era comes to an end or not,

    但不論石油世代要結束與否

  • a new era of alternative energy has already begun.

    新的替代能源時代已經開始

  • Hey everyone, it's Elizabeth. Thanks so much for watching!

    嗨,大家,這是伊莉莎白。謝謝你們觀賞!

  • Be sure to check out more of our videos over here.

    記得要看我們更多的影片

  • We're also always taking your suggestions for future CNBC Explains

    我們也在搜集更多 CNBC Explains 的建議

  • so leave any of those ideas in the comments section.

    所以在評論區留下任何想法

  • And while you're at it, subscribe to our channel.

    都講到這了,記得訂閱我們的頻道

  • Bye for now!

    拜拜!

It's a resource that has started wars and caused global market turmoil.

石油是個開啟戰爭並引起全球市場一陣騷動的能源

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 石油 能源 電動車 投資 再生 油價

當石油耗盡,還有哪些能源選擇? (What's next for oil? | CNBC Explains)

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    Arissa Wang 發佈於 2018 年 07 月 20 日
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