Oil fuels more than half of the world's transportation like cars, planes, and trucks.

全世界超過一半的交通運輸工具，像是車子、飛機跟卡車⋯⋯都靠石油做燃料

But in the age of electric vehicles and renewable energy - is the oil era over?

但在電動車和再生能源興起的今日——難道石油的時代結束了嗎？

Well, it all depends who you ask.

嗯，要看你是問誰

This chart from the International Energy Agency lays out the debate.

從這張國際能源署的圖表就看出了不少討論

One scenario has oil peaking in the mid-2020s.

一部分顯示在中期到 2020 餘年有個石油使用量高峰

And the other shows oil demand growing until 2040.

另個則可看出石油需求量直到 2040 年都仍在成長

So, why the difference?

那這有什麼不同？

Well, on one hand, climate policies are getting stricter.

嗯，另一方面來說，氣候政策變更嚴

So, here in the EU, renewable energy sources account for 80% of new capacity

所以像在歐盟，再生能源資源佔了 80 % 的量

and wind will become the number one source of electricity soon after 2030.

風力發電很快會在 2030 年後成為第一名的能源

China, the world's largest polluter, is now leading the way in the push for clean power.

最多人口產量的中國，現在則竭力找出乾淨能源的方法

Just take a look at the streets

看看大街上

It's predicted one out of every four vehicles on the road in China will be electric by 2040.

有預測指出，到 2040 年，中國路上每四輛車就有一部是電動車

And the total number of electric vehicles on the road worldwide

且全部街上的電動車數量

is expected to reach nearly 300 million in just over two decades -

預計能在 20 年內能達到近三億輛

there's only around 2 million today.

而現在僅有 200 萬輛而已

More electric cars equals less gas guzzling.

許多電動車意味著少一點的碳排量

Okay, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

好啦，但是我們先別太有負擔

The International Energy Agency says it's too soon to write oil's obituary.

國際能源署認為，這樣太快判石油死刑

Oil and gas still received two-fifths of global energy supply investment in 2016.

石油跟瓦斯仍在 2016 取得五分之二的全球能源供應投資

That was less than electricity got for the first time ever

那比電力首次拿到的投資的還少

but still much higher than investment in energy efficiency,

但是還是遠高過能源效能、

and renewables in transportation and heating.

運輸再生能源及跟熱能

Experts say it will be a long time before the infrastructure is in place

專家解釋這在基礎建設尚未趕上電動車的普及前

for electric cars to overtake the streets.

會需要很長的時間

And even then, there will still be demand for oil.

甚至到那個時候，仍會有石油的需求

Oil will be a dominant energy source for emerging markets like India,

石油會變成像是印度這樣的新興市場

and for industries like trucking, petrochemicals, shipping, and aviation.

跟如貨運、石化產品跟航空業等產業的主要能源

One reason why these industries haven't backed off oil yet?

一個這些產業還離不開石油的原因？

Well, prices are pretty low historically.

就是因為目前油價為歷史新低

Back in 2014, the price for a barrel of crude oil traded above $100.

回到 2014 年，一大桶的的原油要價超過 100 美元

Today it's around $60 - where it's expected to stay for a while.

現在差不多在 60 元上下——這價錢被預期近期皆如此

So how did this happen?

這怎麼發生的？

Put very simply, too much supply and not enough demand.

簡單說，就是供給多、需求過少

In 2014, economic growth slowed in countries like China and Brazil -

2014 年時，中國和巴西的經濟緩慢成長

which made oil demand go down.

使得石油需求降低

At the same time, global oil supply was going up, fast.

同時，全球油商供應開始提升更快速

The U.S. experienced an oil boom thanks to new technology -- shale drilling.

拖了新科技的福，美國終於有了石油熱潮——利用頁岩取石油

Meanwhile OPEC, which is a cartel of oil-producing countries,

同時，由諸多產石油國家的石油輸出國家組織

decided not to cut their own supply.

決定不要降低石油的供給

And despite geopolitical tensions in countries like Iraq and Russia,

儘管一些關係緊張的國家，如伊拉克及俄羅斯等區域

oil production didn't go down in those regions either.

石油產量也沒有減少

It was good for consumers who pay less at the pump.

這對將石油自用於交通用途的消費者而言是好的

But low prices hit oil producers and exporters hard.

但低價也讓產油者及出口商面臨困境

Big oil companies like Shell and BP have responded to low oil prices

像殼牌和英國石油公司就對低價有所回應

and increased regulations by trying to “diversify” their businesses.

並藉著嘗試多元化其產業來增加收入

That's a fancy way of saying they're investing in other things besides oil.

較漂亮的說法就是，他們投資除了油以外的事業

Some of that investment is going toward solar or wind

有些投資在太陽能跟風力發電上

but most of it is going toward gas.

不過大多是投資到天然氣裡

Exxon predicts demand for natural gas will grown more than any other energy source

股票市值最高的石油公司埃克森美孚便預估，天然氣的需求量會遠高過其他能源資源

and by 2040, will make up a quarter of the global energy mix.

直到 2040 ，會在全球能源總值上達到季額度

Some analysts say it'll take a long time for us to switch to alternative power sources,

有些分析家認為，特別是當現今油價低落

especially when oil prices are so low.

要讓人類轉乘使用替代能源需要長時間

But whether the oil era comes to an end or not,

但不論石油世代要結束與否

a new era of alternative energy has already begun.

新的替代能源時代已經開始

Hey everyone, it's Elizabeth. Thanks so much for watching!

嗨，大家，這是伊莉莎白。謝謝你們觀賞！

Be sure to check out more of our videos over here.

記得要看我們更多的影片

We're also always taking your suggestions for future CNBC Explains

我們也在搜集更多 CNBC Explains 的建議

so leave any of those ideas in the comments section.

所以在評論區留下任何想法

And while you're at it, subscribe to our channel.

都講到這了，記得訂閱我們的頻道

Bye for now!

拜拜！