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It's a resource that has started wars and caused global market turmoil.
石油是個開啟戰爭並引起全球市場一陣騷動的能源
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Oil fuels more than half of the world's transportation like cars, planes, and trucks.
全世界超過一半的交通運輸工具,像是車子、飛機跟卡車⋯⋯都靠石油做燃料
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But in the age of electric vehicles and renewable energy - is the oil era over?
但在電動車和再生能源興起的今日——難道石油的時代結束了嗎?
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Well, it all depends who you ask.
嗯,要看你是問誰
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This chart from the International Energy Agency lays out the debate.
從這張國際能源署的圖表就看出了不少討論
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One scenario has oil peaking in the mid-2020s.
一部分顯示在中期到 2020 餘年有個石油使用量高峰
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And the other shows oil demand growing until 2040.
另個則可看出石油需求量直到 2040 年都仍在成長
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So, why the difference?
那這有什麼不同?
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Well, on one hand, climate policies are getting stricter.
嗯,另一方面來說,氣候政策變更嚴
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So, here in the EU, renewable energy sources account for 80% of new capacity
所以像在歐盟,再生能源資源佔了 80 % 的量
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and wind will become the number one source of electricity soon after 2030.
風力發電很快會在 2030 年後成為第一名的能源
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China, the world's largest polluter, is now leading the way in the push for clean power.
最多人口產量的中國,現在則竭力找出乾淨能源的方法
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Just take a look at the streets
看看大街上
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It's predicted one out of every four vehicles on the road in China will be electric by 2040.
有預測指出,到 2040 年,中國路上每四輛車就有一部是電動車
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And the total number of electric vehicles on the road worldwide
且全部街上的電動車數量
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is expected to reach nearly 300 million in just over two decades -
預計能在 20 年內能達到近三億輛
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there's only around 2 million today.
而現在僅有 200 萬輛而已
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More electric cars equals less gas guzzling.
許多電動車意味著少一點的碳排量
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Okay, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
好啦,但是我們先別太有負擔
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The International Energy Agency says it's too soon to write oil's obituary.
國際能源署認為,這樣太快判石油死刑
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Oil and gas still received two-fifths of global energy supply investment in 2016.
石油跟瓦斯仍在 2016 取得五分之二的全球能源供應投資
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That was less than electricity got for the first time ever
那比電力首次拿到的投資的還少
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but still much higher than investment in energy efficiency,
但是還是遠高過能源效能、
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and renewables in transportation and heating.
運輸再生能源及跟熱能
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Experts say it will be a long time before the infrastructure is in place
專家解釋這在基礎建設尚未趕上電動車的普及前
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for electric cars to overtake the streets.
會需要很長的時間
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And even then, there will still be demand for oil.
甚至到那個時候,仍會有石油的需求
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Oil will be a dominant energy source for emerging markets like India,
石油會變成像是印度這樣的新興市場
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and for industries like trucking, petrochemicals, shipping, and aviation.
跟如貨運、石化產品跟航空業等產業的主要能源
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One reason why these industries haven't backed off oil yet?
一個這些產業還離不開石油的原因?
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Well, prices are pretty low historically.
就是因為目前油價為歷史新低
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Back in 2014, the price for a barrel of crude oil traded above $100.
回到 2014 年,一大桶的的原油要價超過 100 美元
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Today it's around $60 - where it's expected to stay for a while.
現在差不多在 60 元上下——這價錢被預期近期皆如此
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So how did this happen?
這怎麼發生的?
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Put very simply, too much supply and not enough demand.
簡單說,就是供給多、需求過少
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In 2014, economic growth slowed in countries like China and Brazil -
2014 年時,中國和巴西的經濟緩慢成長
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which made oil demand go down.
使得石油需求降低
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At the same time, global oil supply was going up, fast.
同時,全球油商供應開始提升更快速
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The U.S. experienced an oil boom thanks to new technology -- shale drilling.
拖了新科技的福,美國終於有了石油熱潮——利用頁岩取石油
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Meanwhile OPEC, which is a cartel of oil-producing countries,
同時,由諸多產石油國家的石油輸出國家組織
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decided not to cut their own supply.
決定不要降低石油的供給
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And despite geopolitical tensions in countries like Iraq and Russia,
儘管一些關係緊張的國家,如伊拉克及俄羅斯等區域
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oil production didn't go down in those regions either.
石油產量也沒有減少
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It was good for consumers who pay less at the pump.
這對將石油自用於交通用途的消費者而言是好的
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But low prices hit oil producers and exporters hard.
但低價也讓產油者及出口商面臨困境
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Big oil companies like Shell and BP have responded to low oil prices
像殼牌和英國石油公司就對低價有所回應
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and increased regulations by trying to “diversify” their businesses.
並藉著嘗試多元化其產業來增加收入
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That's a fancy way of saying they're investing in other things besides oil.
較漂亮的說法就是,他們投資除了油以外的事業
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Some of that investment is going toward solar or wind
有些投資在太陽能跟風力發電上
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but most of it is going toward gas.
不過大多是投資到天然氣裡
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Exxon predicts demand for natural gas will grown more than any other energy source
股票市值最高的石油公司埃克森美孚便預估,天然氣的需求量會遠高過其他能源資源
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and by 2040, will make up a quarter of the global energy mix.
直到 2040 ,會在全球能源總值上達到季額度
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Some analysts say it'll take a long time for us to switch to alternative power sources,
有些分析家認為,特別是當現今油價低落
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especially when oil prices are so low.
要讓人類轉乘使用替代能源需要長時間
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But whether the oil era comes to an end or not,
但不論石油世代要結束與否
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a new era of alternative energy has already begun.
新的替代能源時代已經開始
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Hey everyone, it's Elizabeth. Thanks so much for watching!
嗨,大家,這是伊莉莎白。謝謝你們觀賞!
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Be sure to check out more of our videos over here.
記得要看我們更多的影片
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We're also always taking your suggestions for future CNBC Explains
我們也在搜集更多 CNBC Explains 的建議
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so leave any of those ideas in the comments section.
所以在評論區留下任何想法
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And while you're at it, subscribe to our channel.
都講到這了,記得訂閱我們的頻道
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Bye for now!
拜拜!