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  • 0.4 seconds.

    0.4 秒。

  • That's the time it takes you to blink.


  • It's also about how long goalkeepers have to save a penalty kick or fail trying.


  • And it's certainly not enough time for a goalie to react and respond.


  • So goalies can't solely rely on their speed and agility to save a penalty kick.


  • Instead they have to pretty much guess which direction to go and rely on either luck or game theory.


  • [Why penalty kicks are so unfair to the goalies]


  • Game theory is a popular strategy in economics where the outcome of a situation relies more on how well you predict your opponent's actions than how you perform your own.


  • So since the goalie has no choice but to guess, they're better off guessing logically than randomly.


  • That's where economists come in.


  • I would like to know what you do in the last 80 penalty kicks you faced?

    我想知道你是如何處理過去面臨的 80 次十二碼罰球?

  • Do you have any tendencies?


  • What does this guy do against right-footed kickers versus left-footed kickers?


  • That's economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta.

    這是經濟學家 Ignacio Palacios-Huerta。

  • He studied over 11,000 penalty kicks, and in 2008 during the UEFA Champions League Final, it paid off, sort of.

    他研究了超過 11,000 次十二碼罰球,並且在 2008 年歐洲冠軍聯賽決賽期間獲得一些回報。

  • It was Manchester United against Chelsea.


  • The game came down to a penalty shootout which was the perfect opportunity for Chelsea to put Huerta's advice into action.

    這場比賽最後要由罰十二碼球定勝負,這是切爾西隊將 Huerta 的建議加以印證的絕佳機會。

  • Along with several pointers Huerta had given Chelsea's goalie a key insight about Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

    除了幾個提示以外,Huerta 還給了切爾西隊守門員一個關於曼聯球星 Cristiano Ronaldo 的關鍵性的分析。

  • Ronaldo would almost certainly kick the ball to the right if he paused on the run-up.

    如果 Ronaldo 在起腳前會停頓一下,那麼他幾乎肯定會把球踢向右邊

  • And the advice worked.


  • Ronaldo indeed paused and indeed kicked the ball to the right.

    Ronaldo 確實停頓了一下,也確實將球踢向右邊。

  • Chelsea's goalie followed Huerta's advice and made the save.

    切爾西的守門員遵照 Huerta 的指示成功擋下了那一球

  • Ultimately Manchester United won the game, but despite Chelsea's loss, it was clear that economists and statisticians can help even the odds when it comes to penalty kicks.


  • Because otherwise, it's a crap shoot for the goalie.


  • In 2014 for example, FiveThirtyEight calculated that 72.5% of penalties in World Cup history went in.

    以 2014 年為例,538 網站計算出世界盃歷史上有 72.5% 的罰球是合乎這個邏輯的。

  • For all competitions worldwide, it's even higher.


  • And when you take a closer look, it's no wonder.


  • Human response time takes roughly 1/10 of a second to kick in.

    人類正常的反應時間大約需要 1/10 秒後才能開始。

  • The average kicker kicks a 70 mile per hour ball, which means the goalie won't even register the ball's direction until it's about 25 feet away.

    罰球者平均球速為時速 70 英里,這意味著守門員要等到球距離大約 25 英尺的時候才能搞清楚球的方向。

  • It will take him another .5 to .7 seconds to react and reach for the ball, but by that point, it's all over.

    然後他又需要 0.5 到 0.7 秒的時間做出反應去擋下球,但是到那個時候早已來不及了。

  • Now the goalie can improve the odds if they start to move before the ball is even kicked,


  • but the goalie still has to basically guess a side and just go for it.


  • So if time is the goalie's enemy, maybe we should just move the penalty kicker further back.


  • But for now, economists are a goalie's best friend when it comes to stopping penalty kicks,


  • and turns out, Huerta is helping a team in the 2018 World Cup, though he wouldn't tell us who.

    事實上,Huerta 正在幫助一支 2018 年世界盃的球隊,儘管他不會告訴我們是哪一隊。

0.4 seconds.

0.4 秒。

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為什麼罰球對守門員來說不公平 (Why Penalty Kicks Are Unfair To The Goalie)

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    Evangeline 發佈於 2021 年 03 月 08 日