Name: 與中國的戰爭不可避免嗎？ (Is War With China Inevitable?)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:46:53.000Z
Duration: 9 min 28 s

In 1980, this was the small fishing town of Shenzhen, China.

1980 年，中國深圳曾是一個仰賴捕魚維生的小城鎮

程度副詞

And here it is just 30 years later, with the population of over 10 million.

In that time, Chinese poverty dropped from 88 out of 100 people to less than 4.

那段期間，中國貧窮程度從 88% 降至 4% 以下

And if you plug China's growth rate of 6.8% into the rule of 70, its economy may double in just 10 years.

若把中國的成長率 6.8% 放入 70 規則來看，只需要 10 年，中國經濟就可能雙倍成長

To put that in perspective, that the US is growing about a third as fast.

確切來說，美國的成長率是其三分之一

So how is this level of growth for this long even possible?

中國究竟是如何維持長期以來的成長率呢？

The answer is, an incredibly tight Iron Fist.

答案就是，它擁有一個十分緊密的鐵拳組織

The Chinese Communist Party is not a source of power, but THE source of power.

中國共產黨不是其中一個權力來源，它就是權威

It elects the leaders of the eight other political parties, and owns everything—from oil, to phones, to tobacco, and life insurance for when that tobacco kills you.

它負責選出其他八個政黨的領導人，並統領一切大小事務—從石油，到電話、菸草，還有等菸草害你致命時所需的壽險

It makes black mirror look utopian, with Social Points determining the train you ride on, and the school your child can attend.

它讓現實的黑暗面看似烏托邦，就連你要搭怎樣的火車，或是你的小孩能上怎樣的學校，都由社會主義思想來左右

But with absolute control comes absolute efficiency.

而絕對的控制也就帶來了絕對的效率

With a snap of a finger, cities like Shenzhen became special economic zones—bubbles of kinda capitalism or the market runs free.

彈指間，像深圳這樣的小鎮也能搖身變成經濟特區—不過是資本主義或是自由市場的幻象罷了

Call it capitalist, communist, cruel or corrupt. But it's really good at getting things done.

你可以說它是資本主義者、共產主義者，殘酷或迂腐。但它確實能提升做事效率

In a democracy the president's real job is to get reelected,

在民主國家中，總統真正的使命就是能連任，

which means spending today and worrying, about debt tomorrow.

也就是說每天過著提心吊膽的日子，擔心明天是否能解決債務問題

That's the next president's problem, but because China is ruled by one party and its president less influenced by the immediate demands of voters, he can think in the long term.

那是下一位總統的事，但因為中國一黨獨大，再加上其領導人較不受人民當前需求所影響，他能將眼光放遠

And with less red tape slowing things down, his words are quick to become reality.

少了那些繁文縟節的牽絆，他的承諾得以迅速兌現

The only system of checks and balances is the world's biggest population ripe for revolt if things slow down.

唯一的制衡系統就是擁有全世界最大人口數，假使效率不如前，隨時能起義反抗

It's how the country went from ancient to atomic era in only 30 turns.

這就是為什麼它只拐了 30 個彎就從古時代進化到原子時代

So you might scoff at the size and budget of its military, but economic power is the ultimate power.

你可能認為他們的軍事規模和預算很可笑，但他們的經濟實力才是終極的力量

It determines a nation's sphere of influence, and bullets can always be bought.

因為經濟實力決定了一個國家的影響力，子彈隨時都買得起

The government knows its claim to power is rooted in its ability to keep growing.

政府清楚了解到權力來自於國家持續成長的能力

So there may be ups and downs, but the trend is clear, China is gaining power extremely quickly, and those already in power tend not to share well.

可能偶有興衰，但趨勢很明顯，中國正急速地掌握權力，而那些已經握有權勢的國家卻不打算共享

To the leader of a country, war is just another tool of strategy.

對於一個國家的領導人來說，戰爭只是其中一個策略手段

If war would deliver more land power or resources than it would cost in dollars and votes, it's usually a go.

如果比起花很多錢和投票的成本，戰爭反而能獲得更多天然資源成為陸軍強國，那通常是可行的

And if not, you pretend it never crossed your mind.

若非如此，就假裝從未有過這個想法

Since the US is China's biggest customer and it owes China kind of a lot of money. Both countries have more to lose than gain from war.

因為美國是中國最大的客戶，而且欠了中國一大筆錢。這兩個國家若開戰，必定兩敗俱傷

Not to mention the enormous destruction fighting would cause.

更別提戰爭會帶來的巨大毀滅損失

So is war inevitable? The answer seems obvious. Of course not.

不過戰爭是無法避免的嗎？答案看似很明顯。當然不是

Neither would even want it. But here's the paradox—the same self-interest that makes neither want war also motivates them to act as though they do.

誰都不想要戰爭。但矛盾就在於—因為有著相同利益，雙方都不想要戰爭，但所作所為卻恰好相反

In a world with nuclear weapons and highly dependent economies, war is extremely costly. But that makes the threat of war all the more effective.

在核子武器和高度從屬經濟的世界裡，戰爭背負著龐大代價。但這卻讓戰爭更具威脅性

Take a country like North Korea. Under normal circumstances, it could never get away with all it does.

以北韓為例。在正常情況下，它過往的作為是無法輕易被原諒的

But with a finger near or appearing to be near the nuclear button, it can do what it wants without fatal consequences.

但只要它供稱或是狀似要使用核武，就可以在毫無後顧之憂的情況下為所欲為

It survives because it has convinced the world it's willing to fight, even though war would be its downfall.

北韓依然健在，因為它說服了我們，即使戰爭會讓北韓深陷低潮，它仍隨時願意開戰

So too are china and the US incentivized to convince each other they're willing to fight. It's an amazing tool for getting what you want.

中國和美國亦是如此，意圖說服對方他們隨時願意開戰。當你想達到目的時，這是個很棒的手段

China already does this in the south china sea—nearly colliding with american ships, who it knows would rather back off than risk escalation.

中國已經對南海使出這樣的手段—幾乎要撞上美國船隻，因為深知美國寧可退讓也不願冒險登陸

And in theory each knows how much the other really doesn't want war.

而且理論上彼此又都清楚知道對方多麼不想要戰爭

But when someone has so much to gain from acting otherwise, they can be very convincing. Just ask Kim.

不過當有人能因為說反話而得到那麼多好處，他們也能頗具說服力。問問金正恩就知道了

And it doesn't take much for that performance to become real. This is Thucydides' trap:

而且不用耗費太大的力氣來說服大家。修昔底德陷阱是這樣的：

Whenever a rising power threatens an established one, the probability of conflict is awfully high, whether between people, companies or nations.

當一個崛起的新興力量威脅到了現存的勢力，發生衝突的機率就會非常高，不論是人與人、企業與企業或是國家與國家之間，

Those in power want to keep what they have and are very quick to see others as threats, and those on the rise don't realize how much of a threat they are.

已握有勢力的一方想努力維持自己打下的江山，因此很容易視他方為威脅，但新崛起的一方卻沒有意識到自己是個威脅

Say A increases its defense just in case, B may see that as aggression and do likewise.

假設 A 以防萬一而加強了防禦，B 可能將此視為侵略行動，所以也跟著照做

Which A sees as confirmation—B is a threat.

如此 A 就更加確定了—B 就是個威脅

Escalation has begun without either party wanting it. And for China and the US, there isn't just potential for miscommunication,

互相不斷較勁但雙方卻都不願如此。對於中國和美國來說，溝通不良不只是潛在問題，

Like the rapid and unexpected rise of his country, Xi Jinping went from living in a cave as a teenager to ruling all of China and I mean ALL of China.

就如同中國快速且出乎意料的崛起，讓年少時住在山洞中的習近平，晉身到統治中國大陸，我是說「整個」中國大陸

He's become known as Chairman of Everything:

他已經變成了一切大小事務的主席：

For being President; the Party's General Secretary; Chairman of the Military; head of two committees he created for himself, and much much more.

身為總統；黨內秘書長；中央軍事委員會主席；兩個他為自己創辦的委員會會長，還有更多

He began a massive anti-corruption campaign to purge anyone, who might weaken his authority.

他開啟了一場大規模的反貪腐示威，以除去那些可能會削弱他權威的人

Then for the first time since Mao, he added himself to the Chinese Constitution.

自毛澤東以來第一次，習近平將自己列入中國憲法中

Just in case you weren't sure who's in charge, he ordered the party's 88 million members to copy the document by hand.

為了確保你知道誰是掌權人，習近平命令了黨內八千八百萬個黨員徒手抄寫這份文件

And according to that same Constitution, this should be his final term in office. But instead he's taking the Putin approach, staying in power seemingly forever, by rewriting the rules.

根據那部憲法，這本應是他最後的任期。但他卻採取普丁的手法，似乎想藉由改寫規條以永遠掌權

If it isn't obvious Xi has very high ambitions.

He doesn't just want to rise or modernize, but monopolize. Reclaiming control of the Pacific from America:

他不只想要崛起或是現代化，而是獨佔。想從美國手中重新奪回太平洋的控制權：

One China policy; and One Belt One Road policy—connecting China to 68 countries and giving out loads of money for development.

一個中國政策；以及一帶一路政策—將中國與其他 68 個國家串聯起來並投入大筆資金以利開發

China expands its influence and how could anyone say no? They don't ask about human rights or tack-on conditions, just dirt cheap loans.

中國正努力拓展影響力，誰敢拒絕呢？他們不過問人權或是附加條件，只有非常便宜的借貸

This also means insisting it owns most of the South China Sea, even though Malaysia, Vietnam,

這也意味著堅持它目前所做的能讓它佔有大部分的南海，即使馬來西亞、越南、

Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan beg to differ. And it's become the American military's favorite place to hang out.

汶萊、菲律賓和台灣都懇求能有不同的做法。這也成了美國軍隊最喜歡出沒的地方

Hey, this looks like a neat spot to sail, especially since its international territory, so we totally can.

嘿，這裡看起來很適合航行，尤其是因為它屬國際性的領域，所以我們當然可以這麼做

Meanwhile China is literally dumping sand in the ocean to build new islands, and moving people on them. And it's not really

在此同時，中國正努力填海造陸，並將人民移往當地。這完全

about land, it's got plenty of that. But THIS specific land. Oil, gas, fish and the passage of 5.3

與土地無關，中國土地多的是。但特別是這塊土地。石油、天然氣、漁業資源以及每年 5.3 兆的

trillion dollars of trade a year. But even more important is the military advantage. If anyone attacks China, especially the US.

交易管道。但更重要的是在軍事上的優勢。如果有人要攻擊中國，特別是美國

Those few hundred yards of land are the difference between a fight on the mainland and one at a comfortable distance.

在那幾百碼的土地上開戰和在中國大陸上開戰就有很大的不同，而且能保持一段較保險的距離

It's the same reason China puts up with North Korea. Not because they like them, but because it keeps America an arm's length away.

這和中國忍受著北韓是同樣的原因。不是因為中國喜歡他們，只因為他們能讓美國對其保持距離

It's so important to China that it keeps the North alive at

以龐大的政治代價讓北韓存活下來對於中國來說

huge political cost, and it's so important to the US that it's pivoted from the Middle East to Asia. And this isn't even mentioning their

非常重要，而把重心從中東轉向亞洲，對美國來說也很重要。這甚至還未提到雙方在

disagreements about Taiwan. So the top priorities of two nuclear powers are deeply incompatible, with no easy or obvious solution.

台灣議題上的意見不合。所以可見目前兩大核武勢力的首要目標完全無法相容，也看不出解套方法

The Internet is very much the same whether visited in Georgia or Georgia. But not in China, not Google or Facebook but

無論你到 (美國) 喬治亞州或是 (東歐) 喬治亞，網際網路的使用大致上相同。但中國卻非如此，沒有 Google 或是 Facebook

Baidu, and Tencent. Even the biggest companies struggle in China, where national companies dominate. Part of this is because of strict

只有百度和騰訊。即便是最大的企業在中國也十分艱辛，畢竟當地仍是由國內企業主導。部分原因是因為

Chinese censorship. The Communist Party even bans puns, which it says cause cultural chaos, but it's

中國嚴格的審查制度。中國共產黨甚至禁止人民使用雙關語，因為他們認為那會造成文化紊亂，

also about economic control. It looks the other way as its own companies steal intellectual property

但這也和經濟控制有關。從另一方面來看，當他們的企業竊取美國企業的智慧財產權

and hack American companies, these cost American companies an estimated 600 billion dollars a year. And because the US

並駭進美國公司，這讓美國企業一年就損失約六千億美元。而且因為美國

considers its economic power central to its national security. This is a

將其經濟實力看作國家安全的核心。這就成了一個

major threat. China is also quietly ramping up its efforts in space and if artificial intelligence is anywhere as powerful as expected,

重大的威脅。中國也正悄悄地在航太方面付出心力，若人工智慧果真擴大了在世界各地的影響力，

China is well positioned to lead the future. There's more funding for AI research and far more STEM graduates.

中國也準備好引領未來。對於人工智慧的研究有更多資金，以及更多鑽研科學、技術、工程、數學的大學畢業生

So America can either enforce the rules and risk escalation, or let

所以美國可以選擇是否強制實施規條並冒險登陸，或是讓

China surpass it economically and technologically. You should know, from the law of headlines—any title landing in a question mark can

中國在經濟和科技方面超越它。你應該了解到，在新聞頭條的法則中—任何一個以問號作結的標題

be answered with NO, that war is not inevitable.

都可能有個否定的答案，戰爭並不是無法避免的

Unfortunately it would take more work to prevent war, the incentives are to escalate so things may get a lot

很不幸地，要預防開戰得耗費更多心力，因為刺激要是不斷增加，情況可能會變得

worse. But actual war could certainly be avoided. That's the same conclusion Graham Allison comes to, in his book Destined for War,

更糟。但真正的戰爭是絕對可以避免的。這和格雷厄姆．艾利森在他的著作 Destined for War 中有著相同的結論，

which I listened to on Audible, the absolute best place to find high-quality audio books.

我是在 Audible 上聽到的，那絕對是你能找到高品質有聲書最棒的地方

Allison goes into far greater detail including lots of historical examples I ran out of time to talk about

艾利森探討了更多細節，總括了許多歷史上的例子，但礙於影片時間不多了我無法繼續在這

here. You can listen to it or any other book Audible has to offer, completely free, by going to audible.com/polymatter

做說明。你可以到 Audible 聽任何一本他們提供的書，完全免費，只要搜尋 audible.com/polymatter

或是打上 Polymatter 傳訊至 500-500

And in researching for my North Korea video, I listened to the real North Korea. Also on Audible a lot of stories about North Korea are really sensationalized.

以及搜尋我關於北韓的影片，我傾聽真實的北韓。另外，Audible 上也有許多關於北韓的故事是非常聳動的

But the author of that book actually lived in Pyongyang as an exchange student and talks about what it's really like.

但那本書的作者其實是一名交換學生，住在平壤，分享他在那裡真實的生活情況

is that I just don't have the time or sometimes patience to sit down and read a book but I can

有時候我沒有很多時間和耐心坐下讀一本書，但我可以

always just pop in my headphones, while I'm walking to class doing chores or cooking. We all have time during the day,

隨時戴上耳機，無論是我走去上課、做家事或是煮飯時都能聽。我們白天時總會有時間，

when we're not really doing anything with our brains, so you might as

可能我們不太需要花腦力做事，這時你倒不如

Members get one book of any price a month and if you don't like it just choose something else instead it's really really easy.

會員一個月可以得到一本不限價格的書，若你剛好不喜歡，可以選別本，真的非常簡單

Start a 30-day trial and your first audiobook is free. Go to audible.com/polymatter or text Polymatter to 500-500

你可以開始 30 天的試用期而且你的第一本有聲書是免費的。搜尋 audible.com/polymatter 或是打上 Polymatter 傳訊至 500-500

(I don't know why I subbed the last... but whatever.)

(我也不知道我為什麼最後這段還要上字幕...隨便啦)