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  • When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.

    把復原能力跟科技連想在一起是件比較容易的事。

  • You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,

    據我所知,今天會有其他講師

  • who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,

    談一些傷筋動骨的東西

  • and, of course, with technology it never is.

    不過這在科技界是不會發生的。

  • So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.

    所以相對來說,科技是很容易具有復原能力的。

  • I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,

    如果回顧網際網路上發生的事 --

  • with such an incredible last half a dozen years,

    以過去六年來的驚人發展

  • that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.

    的確很難去找到可以對比的例子。

  • A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things

    我們如何做決定,如何對事情做出適當的反應

  • and what we're supposed to expect about the future

    跟我們對未來的展望,很多時候

  • depends on how we bucket things

    取決於我們對事物

  • and how we categorize them.

    分門別類的方式。

  • And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust

    所以從我們剛剛經歷這大起大落的網際網路中

  • that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.

    我想到一個不盡相同的比喻:淘金熱。

  • It's easy to think of this analogy as very different

    相較其他可能的選擇

  • from some of the other things you might pick.

    這個比喻是與眾不同的。

  • For one thing, both were very real.

    其一,兩者都是真實發生的。

  • In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million

    在1849年的淘金熱中,人們從加州取走了

  • worth of gold out of California. It was very real.

    總值七億美元的黃金,這是實在的事。

  • The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to

    網際網路也是實實在在的變成了人們溝通的方式

  • communicate with each other. It's a big deal.

    這是一件重大的事。

  • Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.

    大起、大起、大落、大落

  • You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.

    再比較下去,兩者都是狂熱

  • I don't have to remind you of all the hype

    不需要我再提醒你有多狂熱吧

  • that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.

    這是網路上的 -- 像是 GetRich.com(致富網)

  • But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."

    淘金狂熱裡也找得到 "黃金!黃金!黃金!"

  • Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.

    波特蘭的小城出了68位富人!一堆堆的黃色金屬!

  • Some have 5,000. Many have more.

    有人淘到五千美元,更多的還比比皆是...

  • A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.

    有人賺到十萬美金。

  • People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.

    當人們讀到這些文章時馬上熱血沸騰。

  • "The Eldorado of the United States of America:

    美國的黃金城。

  • the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."

    在加州發現採之不盡的金礦?

  • And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.

    淘金熱跟網路熱兩者可相提併論。

  • So many people left what they were doing.

    接著人們離開現有的工作

  • And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.

    淘金熱持續了幾年,接著

  • People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,

    1849年美國東岸的人一開始聽到這消息時

  • they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."

    他們想 "啊,這是騙人的啦。"

  • But they keep hearing about people getting rich,

    可是陸續傳來有人一夜致富的消息

  • and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.

    到一年後1850,他們還是不相信

  • By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth

    直到1852年,他們想 "難道我是最蠢的人嗎?

  • by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.

    為何不去加州淘金?" 接著他們動了起來

  • These are community affairs, by the way.

    順便提一下,這些是社區事務

  • Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams

    東岸的地方社區們聚在一起,然後

  • of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,

    一、二十個人一起組團搭車橫跨美國

  • and they would form companies.

    而且他們也會組成公司。

  • These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,

    這些都不是單獨行動,而且不管你之前

  • if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,

    是律師或銀行家,人們放棄原有工作

  • no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.

    不論他們原有的技能為何,全部都淘金去了。

  • This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,

    左邊這傢伙是可爾醫師

  • he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.

    當時他住在費城,搭船下到巴拿馬

  • They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,

    橫越過巴拿馬地峽

  • and then take another ship north.

    然後再搭船往北。

  • This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.

    這位是圖蘭醫師,他搭貨運馬車到加州。

  • This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.

    醫師們相繼離開他們的病人

  • These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,

    這兩個當時都是非常成功的 -- 一位是內科

  • a surgeon in the other.

    另一位是外科醫師。

  • Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.

    同樣的事情也發生在網路上,DrKoop.com (醫酷網)

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.

    在淘金熱裡,人們常 "跳船"

  • The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak

    在舊金山港那時曾擠滿了600條船

  • because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon

    因為人們把船開到那裡以後

  • to go search for gold.

    所有船員都棄船淘金去了。

  • So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.

    所以六百條船上只剩六百個船長。

  • They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.

    他們把船變成了旅館,因為沒船員也開不了船。

  • You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.

    "網路熱" 相對於 "淘金熱"

  • And you saw some of the excesses

    更有甚者

  • that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.

    網路熱創造了同樣的事蹟

  • The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.

    當時舊金山防區有1300位士兵

  • Half of them deserted to go look for gold.

    有半數跑去找金子了

  • And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half

    當局不讓剩下的一半去找失蹤的士兵

  • because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.

    因為怕像肉包子打狗(一去不回)

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:

    其中有個士兵在家書裡寫道:

  • "The struggle between right and six dollars a month

    "一個月賺6塊錢的「對」

  • and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."

    相較於一天進帳75塊的「錯」,真是很大的掙扎啊"

  • They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.

    淘金熱那時燒錢也很快

  • This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.

    這相片是當時克朗岱克淘金熱裡的懷特通道

  • They loaded up their mules and their horses.

    他們的馬和驢載滿了東西

  • And they didn't plan right.

    不過他們並沒有計劃好

  • And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,

    而且不曉得路途有多遠

  • and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.

    所以馬上面超載了上百公斤的東西

  • In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died

    以至於大部份的馬在沒到目的地

  • before they could get where they were going.

    就都過勞死了

  • It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."

    因此後來這路也被叫做 "死馬通道"

  • And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:

    當時加拿大的內政部記載:

  • "Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,

    "數以千計的馬在途中死去,

  • sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,

    有時成堆的在懸崖下,

  • with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,

    身旁可見馬鞍與跟它們一起從山上掉落的包裹,

  • sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes

    有時扭曲的屍身,填補了泥坑

  • and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,

    為路上同樣可憐的貨運動物們鋪路,

  • often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,

    經常,我不情願說,很累,但是還活著,

  • a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches

    直到這些可憐的馬蹄倒下

  • turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.

    我們才意識到的一個事實

  • The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere

    一路上數不清

  • account for the myriads of ravens along the road.

    無眼白骨的動物屍骸

  • The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,

    這路上見證到的人性泯滅

  • the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,

    心碎和痛苦到讓很多人無法想像

  • cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."

    也無法用言語來形容。"

  • And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,

    同樣的除了難聞的氣味之外

  • we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.

    網路熱裡有同樣的:超高的燒錢率。

  • I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.

    我接下來要播放其中一個所以你們會有印象

  • This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.

    這是2000年超級盃中的一個廣告片

  • (Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.

    (影片):新娘#1: 你不是說你們有很多不同種的邀請卡嗎? 店員: 是啊

  • Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?

    新娘#2: 那為什麼她的跟我一樣?

  • Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.

    旁白: 別人看起來的一件小事... 新娘#3: 你給我看好了.

  • Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?

    旁白: 對你來說可能是件大事。新郎#1: 那是你太太嗎?

  • Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.

    新郎#2: 15分鐘以後才是. 旁白: 重要的是, 今天是你特別的日子。

  • OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.

    OurBeginning.com (我們的開始.com) 結婚比命重, 向世界公佈吧.

  • Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.

    傑夫:很難看出來這在廣告些什麼?

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • But they spent three and a half million dollars

    但是他們花了三百五十萬美金

  • in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,

    在2000年的超級盃播放這廣告片

  • even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.

    即使他們當時一年只有一百萬的營收

  • Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,

    我們開始來談與淘金熱這個類比不同的地方

  • and I think rather severely.

    我認為是很大的分別

  • And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.

    就是在淘金熱裡,結束就結束了。

  • Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson

    這是一個傢伙寫的: "在達森這個地方,有很多人

  • at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.

    感到失望與落空

  • They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,

    他們冒了生命、健康與財產的風險行了數千里路

  • spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform

    辛辛苦苦的花了幾個月的勞力

  • and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch

    與很高很高的期待

  • have reached the coveted goal only to discover

    結果到頭來發現

  • the fact that there is nothing here for them."

    這裡什麼都沒有。"

  • And that was, of course, the very common story.

    當然這種故事在那時候很普遍

  • Because when you take out that last piece of gold --

    因為當你把最後一塊金子取走時...

  • and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --

    如果你回顧1849年的淘金熱,這事發生得很快

  • the entire American river region, within two years --

    整個美國河流區在兩年之內每塊石頭都被翻過了

  • every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies

    而在那之後只有一些大公司

  • who used more sophisticated mining technologies

    使用了比較複雜的開採技術

  • started to take gold out of there.

    才開始採到黃金。

  • So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic

    接著另一個對比會讓我們感到無比樂觀

  • and that analogy is the electric industry.

    就是電力產業

  • And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.

    網際網路與電力產業之間

  • With the electric industry you actually have to --

    有很多相似的地方

  • one of them is that they're both sort of thin,

    其中之一是兩者都算是薄的、

  • horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.

    水平的、可以啟動跨越不同產業的層面。

  • It's not a specific thing.

    它不只是單一個東西。

  • But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.

    但是電力也是非常非常廣義的,所以你要把範圍縮小。

  • You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.

    它可以指轉移電力

  • It's an incredible means of coordinating,

    它也是代表一種協調

  • in a very fine-grained way, information flows.

    以一種非常精細的資訊流方式。

  • There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.

    電有很多有趣的事情

  • And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on

    我特別要大家注意的是

  • is sort of the golden age of appliances.

    家電的黄金時代

  • The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.

    讓世界進入家電時代的殺手級應用是燈泡

  • So the light bulb is what wired the world.

    所以說是燈炮連接了世界

  • And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.

    當時的人拉線連世界並沒有想到家電

  • They were really thinking about --

    他們真正想的

  • they weren't putting electricity into the home;

    並不是讓每個家裡有電

  • they were putting lighting into the home.

    他們想的是讓家裡有燈光

  • And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.

    到後來花了很長的時間才轉移焦點到電。

  • This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.

    你可以想像當時這是件大事,巨大的資金投入

  • All the streets had to be torn up.

    所有的路都被翻了起來

  • This is work going on down in lower Manhattan

    這相片是當時曼哈頓下城區的施工情況

  • where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.

    他們在蓋第一個發電站

  • And they're tearing up all the streets.

    他們把所有的街道拆了

  • The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,

    愛廸生電力公司,後來變成愛廸生通用電力,

  • which became General Electric,

    然後變成通用電力(GE)公司

  • paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.

    他們支付所有挖路的費用,那時是非常昴貴的。

  • But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.

    但這不是與網站最像的地方

  • Because, remember, the Web got to stand

    請記住,網站已經站在

  • on top of all this heavy infrastructure

    所有長途電話網站所建立的

  • that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.

    厚實的基礎之上了。

  • So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --

    因此所有拉線跟重大的基礎建設

  • I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,

    我要回到1994年的網路暴發

  • when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.

    當它一年成長 2300%

  • How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994

    它怎麼可能在1994年人們都還沒有

  • when people weren't really investing in the Web?

    真正投資在網路時成長2300%?

  • Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.

    那是因為重大基礎建設所已經投下的。

  • So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,

    所以燈泡打下了重大的基礎建設

  • and then home appliances started coming into being.

    然後家電開始變成主流。

  • And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --

    那是很大的事,首先是電扇 --

  • this was the 1890 electric fan.

    這是 1890 年的電扇

  • And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --

    而家電的黄金時期持續了 --

  • it depends how you want to measure it --

    要看你怎麼去估算它 --

  • but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.

    大概是 40 到 60 年,這持續了一段很長的時間。

  • It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.

    從 1890 年開始,電扇是個大成功。

  • The electric iron, also very big.

    電熨斗也是大成功。

  • By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.

    順道一提,這是石棉訴訟的開始。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • There's asbestos under that handle there.

    這手把下面有塊石棉。

  • This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,

    這是第一個吸塵器,1905年胡佛公司出產的

  • from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds

    這個吸塵器重達41.73公斤

  • and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.

    要兩個人才能運作,而且價錢是一台車的四分之一

  • So it wasn't a big seller.

    所以那時賣得不好

  • This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --

    這是真的早期試用者的產品

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.

    這 1905 "使金美" 吸塵器

  • But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.

    但是三年後,1908年,它的重量下到18公斤。

  • Now, not all these things were highly successful.

    這些東西並不是每一樣都很成功。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.

    這是領帶電熨斗,它也是失敗的產品。

  • People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.

    我猜大部份的人覺得領帶應該不會皺吧。

  • These never really caught on either:

    這些也都失敗了:

  • the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.

    這是烘鞋電把,也是沒有大賣

  • This came in, like, six different colors.

    它有六種不同顏色的款式

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • I don't know why. But I thought, you know,

    我也不知道為什麼,不過

  • sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;

    有時候可能發明的時間不對

  • maybe it's time to give this one another shot.

    再試一下也許會成也說不定。

  • So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.

    如果我們來做個超級盃廣告

  • We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --

    再找個贊助商 --

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.

    這次成功的機率就大不同了吧。

  • Now, the toaster was huge

    烤吐司機當時是大發明

  • because they used to make toast on open fires,

    因為在那之前要用火來烤

  • and it took a lot of time and attention.

    要花很多時間去顧

  • I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.

    我要給你們看這個東西,你們知道這是什麼吧。

  • They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.

    那時還沒發明電插座

  • So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.

    記得嗎,他們那時拉線到房子不是為了電

  • They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.

    而是為了燈,所以你的電器要接到

  • They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.

    每個房間天花板上的燈泡插座

  • And you'd plug it in there.

    你就把電器插到那插座上。

  • In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,

    如果曾去過廸士尼世界神奇樂園裡的 Carousel of Progress

  • you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.

    你會看到所有的電線是接到燈座上的。

  • All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb

    你要先把燈泡轉下來

  • if you wanted to plug in an appliance.

    再插上電器。

  • The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.

    接著洗衣機算是很大很大的事情。

  • Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.

    這東西才令大家趨之若鶩

  • Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.

    每個人都想要一台電動洗衣機。

  • On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.

    左手邊是肥皂水

  • And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.

    這裡有個轉輪 -- 這是旋轉馬達。

  • And it would clean your clothes.

    這東西會洗你的衣服。

  • This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here,

    這是清水區,你要把衣服拿到這裡

  • put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer.

    然後你讓衣服通過這個電動圈圈。

  • And this was a big deal.

    在當時這是很重大的。

  • You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.

    因為它有點髒所以這東西通常會放在房子外的騎樓,

  • And you'd run a long cord into the house

    然後麻煩的是你要接一條很長的電線到房子裡面

  • where you could screw it into your light socket.

    特別是轉到燈泡插座上。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,

    事實上,這裡有一個重要的點

  • because they hadn't invented the off switch.

    因為那時"開關"還沒有發明

  • That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --

    直到過了一陣子之後 -- 電器上的 "關" 才出現

  • because it didn't make any sense.

    因為那時不太合常理

  • I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.

    我是說,那時候你如果不用電器的話

  • So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.

    把插座轉下來就好了,沒必要擠一堆在燈座上。

  • That's what you