Is it this?

是這個嗎？

Or maybe this?

或者這個？

Well, there's a different type of war you may have heard a lot about recently.

嗯，有一種不同的戰爭類型，你可能已經聽到了很多關於最近。

Trade war worries igniting.

貿易戰擔憂點燃。

Is the trade war back on?

貿易戰又開始了嗎？

Trade war.

貿易戰。

Trade war.

貿易戰。

Full-blown trade war.

全面的貿易戰。

The “weapons” in a trade war are everywhere.

貿易戰的 "武器 "無處不在。

It's the food you eat.

這是'你吃的食物。

The train you ride to work.

你坐火車去上班。

And the laptop you're probably watching this video on.

而你可能正在看這個視頻的筆記本電腦。

As a consumer you're probably consuming imports.

作為消費者，你'可能消費的是進口產品。

If we have a trade war and we start slapping tariffs on all of those imports, the bill

如果我們打起了貿易戰，開始對所有的進口商品徵收關稅，那麼這個法案

is going to be higher.

是會更高。

If the world relies so much on trade, what is a trade war and why do countries get caught

如果說世界如此依賴貿易，那麼什麼是貿易戰，為什麼各國都會陷入

up in them in the first place?

在他們的第一時間？

Alright, global trade can be a dry topic so let's jazz this up a little bit.

好吧，全球貿易可能是一個枯燥的話題，所以讓我們把這個話題弄得熱鬧一點。

To avoid any spoilers, let's say it's season one of Game of Thrones and both the

為了避免劇透，我們就說這是《權力的遊戲》的第一季，而這兩個

Tyrell and the Lannister kingdoms manufacture… googly eyes.

提利爾和蘭尼斯特王國製造的是... 鵝眼

The Tyrells then start to subsidize googly eye manufacturing in their kingdom.

提利爾家族就開始在自己的王國裡補貼鵝眼製造。

That basically means that the Tyrells are paying at least part of the cost of manufacturing,

這基本上意味著提利爾家族至少要支付一部分製造成本。

reducing the cost for buyers.

降低買家的成本。

The Lannisters are understandably upset — why would anyone want to buy their more expensive

蘭尼斯特家族的不滿是可以理解的--為什麼會有人想買他們更昂貴的。

product?

產品？

They could try and negotiate with the Tyrells or they could choose to impose tariffs: taxes

他們可以嘗試與提利爾家族談判，也可以選擇徵收關稅：稅金。

on imports that raise the cost of those goods.

對提高這些商品成本的進口商品徵收關稅。

Which in this case, would punish the Tyrells.

在這種情況下，會懲罰提利爾家族。

With the tariffs in place, if the Tyrells tried to export goods to the Lannisters, they'd

有了關稅，如果提利爾家族想向蘭尼斯特出口貨物，他們就會...

have to pay an extra tax.

必須支付額外的稅。

The Tyrells could then impose tariffs of their own.

提利爾家族就可以徵收自己的關稅。

Now if this disagreement goes back and forth and escalates with even more tariffs, that

現在，如果這種分歧來來回回，並升級為更多的關稅，那

would be considered a trade war.

將被視為貿易戰。

But trade wars aren't fiction and there's more than one way they can start.

但貿易戰不是虛構的，而且貿易戰不止一種方式可以開始。

One possibility is you want to keep out countries import so that your domestic competitors

一種可能是你想把各國的進口擋在門外，讓你的國內競爭者

have an edge.

有優勢。

The second possibility is if there's a country that is doing something that you don't want them to,

第二種可能是，如果有'的國家正在做一些你不'希望他們做的事情。

you can use a tariff as a way of inflicting a degree of pain, of economic pain on that

你可以用關稅作為一種方式來施加一定程度的痛苦，經濟上的痛苦。

country.

國家。

And you say until you change your evil ways I'm going to make it hurt.

你說除非你改變你的惡行，否則我'要讓它痛不欲生。

Okay, so who “wins” a trade war?

好吧，那麼誰會 "贏得 "貿易戰呢？

One way to think about who “wins” a trade war is looking at which country has more targets

思考誰 "贏得 "貿易戰的一個方法是看哪個國家的目標更多。

to choose from.

以供選擇。

The more goods you ship to another country, the more vulnerable your goods are to punishing

你運往其他國家的貨物越多，你的貨物就越容易受到懲罰。

tariffs.

關稅；

So some economists would say that the country which ships fewer goods to the other has an

所以，有些經濟學家會說，向對方運送貨物較少的國家，就有一個

advantage — and can outlast the other in a big clash.

優勢--並能在大沖突中勝過對方。

Trade wars can also boost the fortunes of countries that stand outside the fray.

貿易戰也可以促進那些站在競爭之外的國家的命運。

In the 1930s, the US enacted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which put into place steep, sweeping

20世紀30年代，美國頒佈了《斯穆特-霍利關稅法》，該法規定了陡峭的、全面性的。

tariffs on imports as a way to protect American workers and industries.

對進口商品徵收關稅，以此來保護美國工人和產業。

Canada and some European countries put up tariffs of their own, launching a trade war.

加拿大和一些歐洲國家自己加徵關稅，發起貿易戰。

Some of these countries then abandoned the US as a trading ally and took their trading

其中一些國家就放棄了美國這個貿易盟友，把他們的貿易

elsewhere.

其他地方。

Soviet Russia, a country not involved in the trade war, ended up gaining trading partners as

蘇俄作為一個沒有參與貿易戰的國家，最終獲得的貿易伙伴是

a result of Smoot-Hawley.

Smoot-Hawley的結果。

So sometimes countries not involved in a trade war can benefit from one.

所以有時候沒有參與貿易戰的國家也能從貿易戰中獲益。

But, as is the case with most wars,

但是，正如大多數戰爭的情況一樣。

trade wars are harmful for almost everyone involved — particularly

貿易戰對幾乎所有相關的人都是有害的--特別是對所有的人。

for poorer consumers.

貧困消費者的。

Rising prices in a trade war can have ripple effects.

貿易戰中價格上漲會產生連鎖反應。

When people have to spend more money on basics like clothing,

當人們不得不花更多的錢購買衣服等基本用品時。

it means they have less money to spend on other goods and services.

這意味著他們有更少的錢花在其他商品和服務上。

And that can dampen the pace of the economy.

而這也會抑制經濟的步伐。

Traditionally when you've looked at trade protection, you often put higher protection on goods that are

傳統上，當你考慮貿易保護時，你通常會對那些具有以下特點的商品給予更高的保護： 1.

consumed by poor people.

窮人消費的。

There are economists who have documented that systematically you tend to find higher tariffs

有經濟學家記錄了，系統地，你會發現更高的關稅。

on things like low-end clothing, shoes, sugar, which play a disproportionate

諸如低端服裝、鞋子、糖之類的東西，這些東西發揮了不成比例的作用。

role in the spending of people who are less was well off.

的作用，在消費少的人是富裕的。

In April, President Trump unveiled a list of over 1000 Chinese exports — things like

4月，特朗普總統公佈了一份超過1000種中國出口產品的清單--比如。

aircraft parts, TVs, and medical devices — that he planned to place tariffs on, as a way to

飛機零部件、電視和醫療設備--他計劃對這些產品徵收關稅，以此來達到他的目的。

to punish Beijing for restricting US investment in China and for stealing American intellectual

懲罰北京限制美國對華投資和竊取美國知識產權的行為。

property.

財產。

The very next day, China struck back, unveiling its own list of US exports that it planned

第二天，中國就進行了反擊，公佈了自己的美國出口產品清單，它打算

to place tariffs on.

對其徵收關稅。

Since then, Trump has threatened another round of tariffs, with China ready to respond with

此後，特朗普又威脅要徵收新一輪關稅，中國準備用以下方式迴應

its own additional tariffs.

自己的附加關稅。

The whole situation is starting to look a lot like a trade war.

整個局勢開始看起來很像一場貿易戰。

Countries disagree on fair and unfair trade practices all the time.

各國對公平和不公平的貿易做法一直存在分歧。

But there's something unique about Trump's approach to it: the unpredictability, the

但特朗普的做法有其獨特之處：不可預知性、。

wild threats, the disinterest in even pretending to play by the rules.

狂妄的威脅，甚至對假裝遵守規則的行為不感興趣。

Trump isn't just destabilizing trade relations with China or any other country he threatens

特朗普不僅破壞了與中國或其他任何他威脅的國家的貿易關係的穩定。

— he's destabilizing the entire global system of trade.

- 他在破壞整個全球貿易體系的穩定。