You make better decisions today, your future will be more prosperous, you make the wrong

你今天做了更好的決定，你的未來會更有前景，你做錯決定

ones, then your future will be full of struggles.

你的未來就會充滿掙扎

So, today we are going to talk about critical thinking and how it applies to problem solving.

所以今天我們要講的是批判性思考，以及如何將它應用在解決問題上

I'll give you a weird analogy here.

我給你一個特別的類比

Critical thinking ability is like having infrared goggles and looking at the sky at night.

批判思考能力就像戴紅外線護目鏡一樣，然後你望向夜晚的天空

Without it, You look at the space, you see only three things, you see stars, sometimes you see planets

沒有戴上它，你看向外太空，你只看到三樣東西，星星、其他星球

and you see darkness.

還有一片漆黑

But the moment you put on your infrared goggles then you get to see all these beautiful

但當你戴上紅外線護目鏡後，你可以看到各式各樣美麗的

gas cloud, giant gas cloud and dust

星際雲、巨型星際雲、塵埃等等

It so colorful, right? So you get to see the things we

這很色彩繽紛對吧 ? 所以你能夠看到這些

previously impossible to see.

你先前絕無可能看到的事情

That's what critical thinking is.

這就是批判性思考

It lets you identify the actual problems, the root causes, but it also helps you see

幫助你去辨認真正的問題，根本性原因，也幫助你看見

the opportunities.

機會

Now, critical thinking isn't only applicable to your work.

批判性思考不只可以應用在你的工作上

It's applicable to every single area of your life.

它可以應用在你生活的每個領域

But my channel is all about your career.

但我的頻道是關於生涯規劃的

So, that's what we'll cover in this video.

所以這會是我們在這部影片要講的部分

Now, we need a framework.

現在，我們需要一個架構

And the framework starts with Problem Statement.

這個架構起始於問題描述 (Problem Statement)

Problem statement is very similar to a project charter.

問題描述和專案章程 (Project Charter) 非常相似

It includes Goals, as in what are you trying to achieve,

它包含了目標，你想要試圖達成什麼

your success criteria, as in how will I know I succeeded or failed, your assumptions, timelines,

你的成功標準是什麼，要如何知道我是成功或失敗的，你的假設、時間軸

and stakeholders involved.

還有股東

It's very similar to a project charter.

這和和專案章程非常相似

I am actually going to call this Problem Charter.

我將會把這個稱為問題章程 (Problem Charter)

This document is very helpful for two reasons.

這份文件有用處的原因有兩個

The second reason being a lot more important than the first.

第 2 個理由比第 1 個理由更重要

The first reason why it's very helpful is because when you get engaged in that problem

第 1 個理由很有用處，原因是當你設法在解決這個問題時

solving mode, you start uncovering a lot of other symptoms, that may be caused by completely

你開始發現許多其他徵兆，這可能由

other root causes.

其他完全不同的原因引起

We are not interested in that at that moment.

我們在這時候還不需要關注這些

You will document those, but you are not going to develop solution alternatives, and develop

你會把這些記下來，但你不會發展其他替代解決方案，並研究

action plans for those.

這些問題的行動計劃

Unless there are dependencies.

除非這些事是有關聯的

So, it helps you understand your scope, who to deal with, the timelines, it basically

所以這有助於你瞭解問題的範圍、處裡的對象和時間軸，基本上

keeps everything under control.

就是讓所有事物在一定的控制底下

But to be honest, in my decade long consulting career, I noticed that the biggest help of

但說實話，在我十年長的諮詢經驗來說，我注意到

having such a charter is all about moving through bureaucracy.

這個章程最有幫助的一點是通過官僚作風體系

Let me explain.

讓我解釋是什麼意思

When you are going through problem solving stages, you actually do a lot of work, you

當你正在解決問題的各個階段，你需要做很多工作

summon meetings, you request data from various departments, you request for expertise from

你召集會議，蒐集各單位的資料，要求專業諮詢協助

consultants, so you are shaking things, you are moving things around.

你在重新整頓所有事物，把所有事繞過一遍

Now, what gives you the power to do it?

誰賦予你這些權力去做這些 ?

What gives you the power to call all these people to a meeting room, what gives you the

誰給你權力去召集這些人來開會，誰給你權力

power to ask for certain analytics data from a completely different department?

去要求完全不同的單位提供特定的分析資料

Why should they attend that meeting or give you the data you want?

為什麼他們要參加會議或給你你想要的資料呢 ?

Because they like you and they want to help you?

因為他們喜歡你或想幫你 ?

What if they don't like you.

要是他們不喜歡你怎麼辦

Now if you are a senior employee, you are a manager, director, VP, then fine, of course

如果你是資深員工，你是經理、處長、副總裁，那當然

everyone will come in to the meeting or give you the data you want.

每個人會來參加會議或給你資料

But if you are not that senior.

但如果你不是那麼資深

Where does your power come from?

你的權力從何而來呢 ?

It comes from that document.

這就來自於你的文件了

The problem charter.

問題章程

Corporate companies aren't usually very agile.

法人公司的動作通常不是很迅速

They move slowly and the employees are usually very – they are not lazy but they push back

他們的動作緩慢，員工通常非常 ... 也不是說懶惰，而是比較會拖延

–They don't want to stop what they are doing and join your little problem solving

他們不想停下手中的工作，參加你的小小問題

brainstorm session and go through your little PowerPoint of fishbone analysis.

腦力激盪會議，然後瀏覽你簡報裡的魚骨圖分析

They got their own thing to worry about.

他們有他們自己要擔心的事要去處理

So, if you have your problem charter, only a few pages, signed off by a sponsor, someone

所以，如果你有你的問題章程，只要少少幾頁，贊助商或某資深主管也簽過名

senior, then you have the power to get the data you want and bring in experts, and call

你就有權去拿到你要的資料，且可找專家

for meetings.

召集會議

That's what your power comes from. Ok, now let's continue; now you developed the problem statement,

這就是你權力的來源。好，接著是，你已經完成你的問題章程

you got your buy-in from someone senior, now, you are off to solving the problem.

你得到某資深人員的同意，現在可以開始解決問題

The 2nd step in your critical thinking towards a problem is identifying the root causes,

批判性思考的第 2 步驟是去分辨根本的原因

right?

對吧 ?

We want to look at the symptoms, or the consequences, and walk backwards and until we reach the root causes.

我們觀察問題的症狀、結果，然後推敲回去直到最根本的原因

There are various ways you can use.

有許多可以應用的方法

Like Fishbone analysis for relatively more complex ones, or for simple problems you can

你可以用魚骨圖來分析相對複雜的問題，或對檢疫的問題可以用

have 5 WHYs.

五個為什麼方法

5 Whys is made famous by Toyota Production System.

五個為什麼來自豐田汽車的製程方法學

As the name suggests, you ask WHY WHY WHY until you get to a root cause.

就像它的名字一樣，詢問 WHY WHY WHY 直到你找到根本的原因

Very simple stuff.

非常簡單

But what is not so simple is knowing when to stop.

但不簡單的是知道何時停下來

It's not necessarily at the 5th question.

不需要真的問到 5 個問題

Because you actually can ask infinite amount of WHYs.

因為其實你可以問到無限個為什麼

There is always a layer down.

你永遠可以一層接一層下去

It never actually ends.

沒有真的結束的一刻

I mean, If you have children, then you probably know what I am talking about.

我的意思是，如果你有小孩，你大概知道我在說什麼

So 5 is just an arbitrary number.

5 只是一個隨意的數字而已

Don't take it literally.

不要用字面意義去解釋

Let's run an example.

舉個例子來說

An actual one.

一個現實案例

This is actually a problem that got me into a lot of trouble.

有一個問題是時尚讓我陷入很多麻煩

So, the situation is that when I was at PwC Consulting, every time we have a down time,

這個情況是當我在 PwC 顧問工作時，每天有工作的休養期

meaning when we are not doing client work, we would engage in other work, like research,

意思是我們不用幫顧客做事，我們做其他工作，像是做研究

writing thought leadership articles, delivering pro bono speeches, or write proposals for

寫關於領導力的文章、出席一些不收費的演講或

new projects.

替新案子寫提案報告

Now there was this one time, when I couldn't finish the proposal on time.

就在有一次，我沒有準時完成提案報告

As a result, we couldn't submit the document to client and client excluded us from the

因此，我們沒有將報告送到客戶手中，客戶取消了我們的

bids.

投標

Now, that's a potentially a million dollar loss for the firm.

這背後代表一百萬美金的損失

Because if we could just submit, we would most probably win the project.

因為如果我們及時繳交，我們有很大的機會贏得案子

This whole thing entirely was my mistake.

這整件事完全是我的錯

I was leading the proposal development, I was the manager, and I had 2 senior associates

我負責主導整個專案進行，我擔任經理，且有兩位資深夥伴

working for me.

幫我工作

So, it was a big failure.

所以這是個大失敗

I mean I messed up real good.

我指我真的犯了很大的錯

It's really rare that anyone can say they cost their employer a million dollars – I

很少有人能夠說我虧了我老闆一百萬美元，我

can… and it is even more rare that they don't get fired…

可以說 ... 更少的是這些人沒有被炒魷魚

I didn't…

我沒被炒 ...

A definitely career milestone for me there.

這絕對是我職涯的里程碑

Not something you can see on my CV…

不是你可以在我履歷表中看見的事情

But anyway, let's ask some WHYs…

總而言之，接下來我來問一些為什麼

Let's analyze why I messed up.

分析我到底為什麼搞砸

let's apply the 5 WHYs.

運用 5 個為什麼分析法

So, Deniz says, we couldn't deliver the proposal on time.

Deniz 說我們無法準時提交提案報告

Ok.

好

Deniz, why?

為什麼會這樣 Deniz ?

It took us more time than I expected Why – I estimated the time requirements,

比我預期花了還要長的時間。為什麼 ? 我估計所需時間時

like how long it would take based on the previous similar projects.

像是會花多長時間，用了先前一個相似的案子來估

So, I looked at the previous RFPs Request for Proposals, and our proposal development

所以我看了先前的需求建議書 (Request For Proposal, RFP) 和看了這些專案的提案進展

time for those projects, and that's how I estimated.

我是這樣去估計時間的

Now, stop.

現在，停下來

Because it's a dead end.

因為問到死路了

Don't ask more Whys.

不要接著問更多為什麼了

Because it is the best practice to estimating the time requirements of a proposal based

因為估計提案需求時間的最佳方式就是

on the previously similar ones.

根據先前那個相似的案子

So, Deniz did the right thing here.

所以 Deniz 其實沒有做錯

So, if you ask one more WHY.

所以如果你問更多的為什麼

It will be detrimental.

是有害無益的

Why did you look at the past RFPs?

為什麼你要去看以前的需求建議書

Because it's the best practice….

因為這是最好的慣例做法

Oh…

喔 ...

See, my point.

看到我說的點了嗎

So, it was the right action to take.

所以採取的行動是對的

But it was implemented poorly.

但執行的很糟糕

So, I did the right thing by looking at the previous RFPs but I did a poor job in terms

所以我去看先前的需求建議書是對的，但是

of analyzing the scope of work.

從分析工作領域的角度上我做的很糟

I didn't realize a small part of the scope involved expertise in social security systems

我沒有理解到有一小部分的領域是涉及到社會安全制度專業

– which I didn't know much about.

而這是我不太了解的

So, I had to work with a subject matter expert from our London office and I wasted a lot

所以我必須和來自倫敦的領域專家合作，也因此浪費許多

of time there with back and forth communication.

來回通信的時間

Let's run one more example.

接著再多講一個例子

I am not an IT.

我不是資訊科技專業

But let's give one example from IT.

但在多舉一個資訊科技的案例

Our software is slow in responding to inputs.

我們的軟體對輸入信號回應緩慢

1st Why – Because the server is overloaded 2nd Why – Because we had a sudden peak in

第一個為什麼，因為伺服器超載。第二個為什麼，因為遇到突發的系統塞車

traffic 3rd Why – Because we got featured in a Tech

第三個為什麼，因為我們獲得 《技術雜誌》(Tech Magazine) 評選

Magazine which resulted in massive traffic boost.

因此造成巨量資料塞車

Good.

好

Now you know the reasons.

現在你知道原因了

It would be idiotic to continue asking why.

繼續問為什麼是很愚蠢的事

It's common sense.

這很顯而易見

Why did we get featured in Tech Magazine?

為什麼我們獲得技術雜誌的曝光

It's a great thing for the business.

這對拓展事業很有幫助

See, it makes no sense.

看 ! 這完全沒有道理

Instead, at that stage, a better question to ask, is why didn't we anticipate this

取而代之的是，在這個階段，更好的是去問為什麼我們沒有預期到這個情況

and put in place the contingency capacity in our server?

然後先在伺服器中放入更大空間

If ask that question. Then the answer to that would be negligence, a human error, or lack of standard operating

如果問了這個問題，那答案會是沒人注意到、人為錯誤或缺乏標準作業流程

procedures, like whatever works.

諸如此類關於運作的問題

So, I want to go back to the proposal example.

所以我想回到提案的例子

I want to talk more about finding root causes..

我想談更多如何找到根本原因

If you noticed, the problems I shared with you were fairly simple ones, right?

如果你注意到，我分享給你們的問題相當簡單，對吧 ?

And the reason they were simple was because there is a direct chain, direct connection

這些理由之所以簡單的原因是因為有直接的鏈結、直接的連結

between the consequence and the root cause.

在結果和根本原因之間

Why?

為什麼 ?

Because Of X, Why X? because of Z?

是因為 X，為什麼是 X ? 因為 Z ?

Why Z… Well, that's the root cause.

為什麼是 Z ... 因為這就是根本原因

So it was fairly simple.

所以這相當簡單

But in real life it so happens that sometimes problems can't be found by looking at the consequences

但在現實情況中，有時觀察結果無法找到問題的根本原因

or the symptoms.

或從問題的癥狀來看

The root cause lies completely elsewhere. There is no direct link between the root cause and symptom

根本原因被完全隱藏住了。在根本原因和癥狀之間沒有直接的連結

So you know situations, where do you even start?

所以你知道情況，但你究竟該從何開始 ?

Now, let me give you an example of a problem that we faced very recently.

我給你一個我們最近面對的一個案例

That problem was actually the reason of my absence from YouTube for a while.

這個問題就是為何我在 YouTube 消失一陣子的原因

Let me share with you what happened and how we eventually identified the root cause.

跟各位分享到底發生什麼事還有我們最後是如何找出根本原因的

You probably already know about my LIG program, right?

你們大概已經知道我的 LIG 專案，對吧 ?

It's Landing Interviews Guaranteed.

就是面試攻略 (Landing Interviews Guaranteed)

Horrible name. I know.

很糟的名字，我知道

I Don't know what I was thinking.

我不知道我那時在想什麼

So, I left PwC Consulting around 4 months ago to fully focus on my LIG program, and

所以我大概在 4 個月前離開 PwC 顧問公司，專心在我的 LIG 計畫上面

I usually spent most of my day helping LIG members get better jobs or pass their interviews.

我通常會一天中大部分的時間幫忙 LIG 會員找到更好的工作或通過面試

It's an awesome program and I get about 10 to 15 new registrations every day.

這是個很棒的計畫，我大概每天可以接收到 10 到 15 位新會員

And LIG is the reason why I have this YouTube channel so I can have opportunity

LIG 計畫是為什麼我開這個 YouTube 頻道的原因，也因此我有機會

to talk about.

來跟大家談談

Which I should do it more often.

也是我應該多做的

Anyways, Now, about 3 weeks ago, something really bad happened.

好，就在 3 週前，發生了非常糟的事

So, from having about 10 to 15 registrations every day, all of a sudden we got nothing.

從原本每天 10 到 15 個註冊會員，突然之間，沒有半個新會員

No registration.

沒有人註冊

No one enrolled.

沒有人加入

Then comes the next day, again nothing.

然後到了隔天，仍舊沒有

Then 3rd day again nothing, 4th day again nothing.

到了第 3 天還是沒有，第 4 天沒有

I mean you can imagine how I felt in that situation, right?

我的意思是你能想像我對這個狀況的感受，對吧 ?

It's my livelihood.

這是我的生計來源

I mean I left a pretty amazing career with PwC and took a big risk with LIG and The Career

我離開了相當棒的 PwC 顧問工作，花了很大的風險去經營 LIG 還有 The Career

Mastery.

Mastery

And it's all crashing down. Think about how it is,

一切都崩塌了。想像這個情況

the moment for me. It's like war mode.

對我的衝擊。我陷入了戰爭模式

So, for about 4 days I got nothing more than 5 hours of sleep combined.

在大概 4 天期間，我睡不到 5 個小時

I was a walking zombie constantly asking WHY, WHY, WHY, WHY?

我就像喪屍一樣，持續問著為什麼、為什麼、為什麼、為什麼 ?

You know the 5 Whys we covered, they became 500 Whys.

你知道我們剛說的 5 個為什麼分析法，當時便成了 500 個為什麼

So, the first obvious questions; Is it the payment processor?

首先，最明顯的問題就是：付款處理器有問題嗎 ?

Nope, we tested it.

沒有，我們測試過了

It worked fine.

運作很正常

Is the traffic to site down?

網站的連結壞了嗎 ?

Are people not coming ? Nope

所以人們進不來 ? 不是

We checked Google Analytics.

我們查過 Google Analytics 了

It's all fine.

完全都沒事

We still get a lot of referral traffic.

我們仍舊有很許多轉介流量

Is the server down?

伺服器壞了嗎 ?

We checked the server logs, it was all fine.

我們確認了伺服器記錄檔，也都好好的

There was no downtime, even in peak times.

完全沒有間歇期，即使是在尖峰時段

I mean me and Jeanette, we literally came up with more than 100 potential causes

我和 Jeanette，我們真的想了超過 100 種潛在的原因

and we ran tests for every single one of them.

也測試了每一個原因

No sleep for 4 days. Nothing. It's crazy.

4 天完全沒有睡覺。真的是瘋了

Now after 4 days of constant struggle.

在 4 天持續的掙扎過後

Like constant effort, right ?

就像持續不段的努力，對吧 ?

I got really depressed.

我變得真的很沮喪

No sleep, nothing, I didn't even know who to go to solve this problem.

沒有睡覺，一點也沒有。我不知道該找誰解決這個問題

Like who is the person that can help us understand.

誰能幫我們理清這個問題

So, in my misery, I went home to my sweet couch, opened up a bottle of Vodka, I grabbed

所以在這個悲慘的情況下，我來到我溫暖的沙發，開了一瓶伏特加，拿了

the whole bottle, sat down, turned on my TV, and literally

整瓶酒，坐下來，打開電視

I picked the most depressing movie of all time: Hachiko.

選了一個無敵憂鬱的電影《忠犬小八》

If you are dog owner, I don't care if you are the toughest person alive, that movie

如果你有養狗，不管你是不是最鐵血的人，這部電影

will make you cry your eyes out. It's that depressed.

會讓你哭到不行，就是這麼憂鬱

So I started watching it.