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  • Chris Anderson: So two months ago, something crazy happened.

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

  • Can you talk us through this, because this caught so many people's attention?

    克里斯 · 安德森(克):兩個月前, 發生了一件很瘋狂的事。

  • Gwynne Shotwell: I'll stay quiet for the beginning,

    你能否和我們談談這件事, 因為它引起了好多人的注意?

  • and then I'll start talking.

    格威妮 · 紹特韋爾(格): 我還是先保持安靜,

  • (Video) Voices: Five, four, three, two, one.

    然後我再開始談。

  • (Cheering)

    (影片)聲音: 五、四 、三、二、一。

  • Woman: Liftoff. Go Falcon Heavy.

    (歡呼)

  • GS: So this was such an important moment for SpaceX.

    女子:發射。衝啊, 獵鷹重型運載火箭。

  • With the Falcon 9 and now the Falcon Heavy,

    格:對於 SpaceX, 這是個非常重要的時刻。

  • we can launch into orbit

    原是獵鷹九號, 現在是獵鷹重型運載火箭,

  • any payload that has previously been conceived or is conceived right now.

    有了它,我們能把任何以前

  • We've got a couple of launches of Falcon Heavy later this year,

    曾構想過或現在正在構想的 裝載量給發射到軌道上,

  • so this had to go right.

    今年下半年,我們要發射 獵鷹重型運載火箭好幾次,

  • It was the first time we flew it,

    所以這不能失誤。

  • and the star of the show, of course,

    這是我們第一次讓它升空,

  • brother and sister side boosters landing.

    當然,還有這場秀的明星,

  • I was excited.

    兩側推進器的著陸。

  • (Laughter)

    我很興奮。

  • Thanking my team.

    (笑聲)

  • By the way, there's maybe a thousand people

    感謝我的團隊。

  • standing around me right there.

    順道一提,在那裡,

  • And Starman.

    我身邊可能站有一千人。

  • Starman did not steal the show, though --

    還有星男(太空駕駛員模型)。

  • the boosters did.

    不過,星男並未搶走目光──

  • CA: (Laughter)

    是推進器搶走的。

  • CA: There had to be some payload -- why not put a Tesla into space?

    克:(笑聲)

  • GS: Exactly. It was perfect.

    克:肯定是很了不起的裝載量── 為什麼不把一台特斯拉車送上太空?

  • CA: Gwynne, let's wind the clock back.

    格:沒錯。它很完美。

  • I mean, how did you end up an engineer and President of SpaceX?

    克:格威妮,咱們回顧一下。

  • Were you supernerdy as a girl?

    你是如何成為 SpaceX 的工程師和總裁?

  • GS: I don't think I was nerdy,

    你小時候是超級書呆子嗎?

  • but I was definitely doing the things that the girls weren't doing.

    格:我不覺得我是書呆子,

  • I asked my mom, who was an artist, when I was in third grade,

    但我肯定做了其他女孩不做的事。

  • how a car worked,

    我媽媽是位藝術家, 我三年級時請問她

  • so she had no idea so she gave me a book, and I read it,

    汽車是怎麼運作的,

  • and sure enough, my first job out of my mechanical engineering degree

    她不知道答案, 所以她給了我一本書,我讀了。

  • was with Chrysler Motors in the automotive industry.

    當然,在我拿到 機械工程學位之後的第一份工作,

  • But I actually got into engineering not because of that book

    就是在汽車業的克萊斯勒汽車公司。

  • but because my mom took me to a Society of Women Engineers event,

    但我會投入工程並不是因為那本書,

  • and I fell in love with the mechanical engineer that spoke.

    而是因為我媽媽帶我去了 美國女工程師協會的一個活動,

  • She was doing really critical work,

    我愛上了在演說的那位機械工程師。

  • and I loved her suit.

    她在做非常有關鍵性的工作,

  • (Laughter)

    特別是我愛她的制服。

  • And that's what a 15-year-old girl connects with.

    (笑聲)

  • And I used to shy away from telling that story,

    那就是一個十五歲女孩所能想到的。

  • but if that's what caused me to be an engineer --

    我以前會躲避,不願說那個故事,

  • hey, I think we should talk about that.

    但如果那就是讓我 成為工程師的原因──

  • CA: Sixteen years ago, you became employee number seven at SpaceX,

    嘿,我想我應該要談談它。

  • and then over the next years,

    克:十六年前,你成為 SpaceX 的第七號員工,

  • you somehow built a multi-billion-dollar relationship with NASA,

    在接下來幾年,

  • despite the fact that SpaceX's first three launches blew up.

    你和美國太空總署(NASA) 建起了數十億美元的關係,

  • I mean, how on earth did you do that?

    儘管 SpaceX 的 前三次發射都失敗了。

  • GS: So actually, selling rockets is all about relationships

    你到底是怎麼辦到的?

  • and making a connection with these customers.

    格:其實,要賣火箭, 重點就在於關係,

  • When you don't have a rocket to sell,

    要和客戶建立連結。

  • what's really important is selling your team,

    當你沒有火箭可以賣的時候,

  • selling the business savvy of your CEO --

    很重要的就是,要賣你的團隊,

  • that's not really hard to sell these days --

    賣你的執行長的商業頭腦,

  • and basically, making sure that any technical issue that they have

    現今這並不難賣──

  • or any concern, you can address right away.

    基本上,要確保他們 若有任何技術問題

  • So I think it was helpful for me to be an engineer.

    或任何擔心的事,你都能立即處理。

  • I think it was helpful to my role of running sales for Elon.

    所以我想,我的工程師身份 是有幫助的。

  • CA: And currently, a big focus of the company

    我想,為伊隆(特斯拉汽車執行長) 做銷售的角色也有幫助。

  • is, I guess, kind of a race with Boeing

    克:目前,公司的一個主要焦點,

  • to be the first to provide the service to NASA

    據我猜測,是和波音競爭,

  • of actually putting humans into orbit.

    要搶先為美國太空總署提供

  • Safety considerations obviously come to the fore, here.

    真的將人類送入太空軌道中的服務。

  • How are you sleeping?

    在這裡,很顯然 安全考量是很重要的。

  • GS: I actually sleep really well. I'm a good sleeper, that's my best thing.

    你還能睡得好嗎?

  • But I think the days leading up to our flying crew

    格:我其實睡得非常好。 我很貪睡,那是我最擅長的。

  • will probably be a little sleepless.

    但我想,接下來的日子 對我們的飛行組員來說,

  • But really, fundamentally, safety comes in the design

    將會是有點難入睡的。

  • of the system that you're going to fly people on,

    但其實基本上,安全來自於設計,

  • and so we've been working for years,

    讓人飛行時所使用之系統的設計,

  • actually, almost a decade, on this technology.

    我們已經投入數年的努力,

  • We're taking the Dragon cargo spaceship

    事實上,已投入這項技術將近十年。

  • and we're upgrading it to be able to carry crew.

    我們用天龍號太空船(貨船),

  • And as I said, we've been engineering in these safety systems

    我們將它升級,變成可以載人。

  • for quite some time.

    如我先前所言,我們 一直在打造這些安全系統,

  • CA: So isn't it that there's one system that actually allows instant escape

    已經花了不少時間。

  • if there's a problem.

    克:是不是有個系統,

  • GS: That's right. It's called the launch escape system.

    在發生問題的時候能幫助快速逃脫?

  • CA: I think we have that. Let's show that.

    格:是的。它叫做發射逃脫系統。

  • GS: We've got a video of a test that we ran in 2015.

    克:我想我們有資料。 咱們來展示一下。

  • So this simulated having a really bad day on the pad.

    格:我們有段 2015 年 做測試的影片。

  • Basically, you want the capsule to get out of Dodge.

    這是模擬在發射臺上 出問題的狀況。

  • You want it to get away from the rocket

    基本上,你要讓太空艙閃躲。

  • that had a bad day right below it.

    你想要讓它遠離火箭,

  • This is if there was an issue on the pad.

    遠離在它下頭出了問題的火箭。

  • We also will be doing another demonstration later this year

    這是假設發射台出了問題。

  • on if we have an issue with the rocket during flight.

    今年晚些時候我們 還會做另一項展示,

  • CA: And those rockets have another potential function as well, eventually.

    展示當火箭在飛行時 出問題要怎麼辦。

  • GS: Yeah, so the launch escape system for Dragon is pretty unique.

    克:最終,那些火箭 也有另一個潛在功能。

  • It's an integrated launch escape system.

    格:是的,天龍號太空船的 發射逃脫系統相當獨特。

  • It's basically a pusher,

    它是個整合式發射逃脫系統。

  • so the propellant system and the thrusters are integrated into the capsule,

    基本上,它是推進器,

  • and so if it detects a rocket problem, it pushes the capsule away.

    推進燃料系統和火箭推進器 都被整合到太空艙上,

  • Capsule safety systems in the past have been like tractor pullers,

    如果它偵測到火箭發生問題, 它就會把太空艙推射出去。

  • and the reason we didn't want to do that

    過去,太空艙安全系統一直 都像是拖拉牽引機一樣,

  • is that puller needs to come off before you can safely reenter that capsule,

    我們不想要這麼做的原因,

  • so we wanted to eliminate, in design, that possibility of failure.

    是因為要等拉具脫離之後, 你才能夠安全地重返太空艙,

  • CA: I mean, SpaceX has made the regular reusability of rockets

    我們想要在設計上 就除去那種失敗的可能性。

  • seem almost routine,

    克:我的意思是,SpaceX 已經讓火箭能夠重複利用,

  • which means you've done something

    這似乎成了一種慣例,

  • that no national space program, for example,

    也就是說,你做了什麼,

  • has been able to achieve.

    是沒有其他,比如國家太空計畫,

  • How was that possible?

    能夠達成的。

  • GS: I think there's a couple of things --

    那怎麼有可能?

  • there's a million things, actually --

    格:我認為有幾件事──

  • that have allowed SpaceX to be successful.

    其實有一百萬件事──

  • The first is that we're kind of standing on the shoulders of giants. Right?

    才能讓 SpaceX 成功。

  • We got to look at the rocket industry and the developments to date,

    第一件事是,我們算是 站在巨人的肩膀上,對吧?

  • and we got to pick the best ideas,

    我們能夠看到火箭產業 以及到目前為止的發展,

  • leverage them.

    我們能夠挑選最好的點子,

  • We also didn't have technology that we had to include

    發揮它們。

  • in our vehicle systems.

    我們也沒有需要將什麼技術納入

  • So we didn't have to design around legacy components

    我們的飛行器系統。

  • that maybe weren't the most reliable or were particularly expensive,

    我們不需要用到殘留的元件

  • so we really were able to let physics drive the design of these systems.

    或特別貴的元件來做設計,

  • CA: I mean, there are other programs started from scratch.

    所以我們其實能讓物理 來引領這些系統的設計。

  • That last phrase you said there, you let physics drive the design,

    克:我的意思是, 有些其他計畫是從零開始。

  • what's an example of that?

    你剛剛說的最後一句話, 讓物理引領設計,

  • GS: There's hundreds of examples, actually, of that,

    可以舉個例子嗎?

  • but basically, we got to construct the vehicle design

    格:其實有幾百個例子可以舉,

  • from, really, a clean sheet of paper,

    但基本上,我們的飛行器設計

  • and we got to make decisions that we wanted to make.

    是從一張白紙開始,

  • The tank architecture -- it's a common dome design.

    我們得要做出我們想要做的決定。

  • Basically it's like two beer cans stacked together,

    燃料箱的結構── 它是常見的半球形設計。

  • one full of liquid oxygen,

    基本上,它像是 兩個啤酒灌疊在一起,

  • one full of RP,

    一個裝滿了液態氧,

  • and that basically saved weight.

    另一個裝滿了 RP(燃料),

  • It allowed us to basically take more payload for the same design.

    基本上那就能減輕重量。

  • One of the other elements of the vehicle that we're flying right now

    讓我們在設計不變的情況下 有更高的裝載量。

  • is we do use densified liquid oxygen and densified RP,

    我們正在飛的太空船, 所用到的其他元素之一,

  • so it's ultracold,

    就是用更高濃度的液態氧和 RP,

  • and it allows you to pack more propellent into the vehicle.

    所以是超冷的,

  • It is done elsewhere,

    讓你能在載具上放更多推進燃料。

  • probably not to the degree that we do it,

    其他地方也做,

  • but it adds a lot of margin to the vehicle,

    可能沒有我們做得好,

  • which obviously adds reliability.

    但它讓載具多了很多空間,

  • CA: Gwynne, you became President of SpaceX 10 years ago, I think.

    顯然這就會增加可靠度。

  • What's it been like to work so closely with Elon Musk?

    克:格威妮,我想,你是在 十年前當上 SpaceX 的總裁。

  • GS: So I love working for Elon.

    和伊隆 · 馬斯克(Elon Musk)合作 是什麼樣的感覺?

  • I've been doing it for 16 years this year, actually.

    格:我很愛為伊隆工作。

  • I don't think I'm dumb enough to do something for 16 years

    到今年,我其實已經做了 16 年了。

  • that I don't like doing.

    我想我應該沒有蠢到做不喜歡做的事

  • He's funny

    還能一直做 16 年。

  • and fundamentally without him saying anything

    他很有趣,

  • he drives you to do your best work.

    基本上,他不需要說任何話,

  • He doesn't have to say a word.

    他就能驅使你去在工作上做到最好。

  • You just want to do great work.

    他不用說任何話。

  • CA: You might be the person best placed to answer this question,

    你就會想把工作做好。

  • which has puzzled me,

    克:有個問題一直困擾我,

  • which is to shed light on this strange unit of time

    你可能是最適合回答的人,

  • called "Elon time."

    能不能解釋一下這個 很奇特的時間單位,

  • For example, last year, I asked Elon, you know,

    叫做「伊隆時間」。

  • when Tesla would auto-drive across America,

    比如,去年我問伊隆,你知道的,

  • and he said by last December,

    問他何時特斯拉能在全美自動駕駛,

  • which is definitely true, if you take Elon time into account.

    他說,去年 12 月,

  • So what's the conversion ratio between Elon time and real time?

    若把伊隆時間納入考量的話, 這答案絕對是真的。

  • (Laughter)

    所以,伊隆時間和真實時間 之間的轉換率是什麼?

  • GS: You put me in a unique position, Chris.

    (笑聲)

  • Thanks for that.

    格:你讓我處在一個 很獨特的立場,克里斯。

  • There's no question that Elon is very aggressive on his timelines,

    謝謝你這麼做。

  • but frankly, that drives us to do things better and faster.

    毫無疑問伊隆的時間表非常急進,

  • I think all the time and all the money in the world

    但坦白說,那促使我們 把事情做得更好、更快。

  • does not yield the best solution,

    我想世界上所有的時間 和所有的金錢

  • and so putting that pressure on the team to move quickly is really important.

    也無法換來最好的解決方案,

  • CA: It feels like you play kind of a key intermediary role here.

    把那樣的壓力加在團隊身上, 讓步調加速,是相當重要的。

  • I mean, he sets these crazy goals that have their impact,

    克:感覺好像你在這裡是 扮演一種關鍵的中間角色。

  • but, in other circumstances, might blow up a team

    我的意思是,他設下瘋狂的目標, 這些目標都有它們的影響,

  • or set impossible expectations.

    但在其他情況下, 這可能會搞死一個團隊,

  • It feels like you've found a way of saying, "Yes, Elon,"

    或是訂下不可能的期望。

  • and then making it happen in a way that is acceptable

    感覺起來,你好像找到一種 方式來說:「好的,伊隆。」

  • both to him and to your company, to your employees.

    接著,用能被接受的方式來實現它,

  • GS: There is two really important realizations for that.

    他能接受,你的公司、 你的員工也能接受的方式。

  • First of all, when Elon says something, you have to pause

    格:有兩項非常重要的領悟。

  • and not immediately blurt out, "Well, that's impossible,"

    首先,當伊隆說了某些話時, 你得要停頓一下,

  • or, "There's no way we're going to do that. I don't know how."

    不能馬上衝口說出:「那不可能。」

  • So you zip it, and you think about it,

    或「我們不可能做到。 我不知道怎麼做。」

  • and you find ways to get that done.

    你閉上嘴巴,你開始思考它,

  • And the other thing I realized,

    然後你想辦法把它做到。

  • and it made my job satisfaction substantially harder.

    我還領悟到另一件事,

  • So I always felt like my job was to take these ideas

    它讓我對得到成就感變更困難。

  • and kind of turn them into company goals, make them achievable,

    我總是覺得我的工作是要把這些點子

  • and kind of roll the company over from this steep slope, get it comfortable.

    轉換成公司的目標, 讓它們變成是可達成的,

  • And I noticed every time I felt like we were there,

    有點像是把在陡坡上的公司 翻個身,讓它舒服一點。

  • we were rolling over, people were getting comfortable,

    我注意到,每次 當我覺得我們做到了,

  • Elon would throw something out there,

    我們在翻身,大家正要得到舒緩時,

  • and all of a sudden, we're not comfortable

    伊隆就會丟出些什麼來,

  • and we're climbing that steep slope again.

    突然間,我們就不舒服了,

  • But then once I realized that that's his job,

    我們又在爬那陡坡了。

  • and my job is to get the company close to comfortable

    但一旦我意識到,那就是他的工作,

  • so he can push again and put us back on that slope,

    而我的工作就是 讓公司盡量接近舒服,

  • then I started liking my job a lot more,

    這樣他就能再次施壓, 把我們推回坡上,

  • instead of always being frustrated.

    我就開始更喜歡我的工作了,

  • CA: So if I estimated that the conversation ratio

    而不是總覺得很挫折。

  • for Elon time to your time is about 2x,

    克:所以……如果我估計那轉換率,

  • am I a long way out there?

    從伊隆時間轉換到 你的時間,約是 2x,

  • GS: That's not terrible, and you said it, I didn't.

    我有差得太遠嗎?

  • (Laughter)

    格:那不算糟, 而且是你說的,不是我。

  • CA: You know, looking ahead,

    (笑聲)

  • one huge initiative

    克:你知道的,向前看,

  • SpaceX is believed to be, rumored to be working on,

    一個很大的計畫,

  • is a massive network of literally thousands of low earth orbit satellites

    謠言相信 SpaceX 正在進行

  • to provide high-bandwidth, low-cost internet connection

    一個大型網路,連結 數以千計的低地面軌道衛星,

  • to every square foot of planet earth.

    來提供高頻寬低成本的網路連線,

  • Is there anything you can tell us about this?

    提供到地球上的每一個角落。

  • GS: We actually don't chat very much about this particular project,

    你能跟我們談談它嗎?

  • not because we're hiding anything,

    格:我們其實不太聊這個計畫,

  • but this is probably one of the most challenging

    不是因為我們要隱藏什麼,

  • if not the most challenging project we've undertaken.

    也許這不是最有挑戰性的計畫,

  • No one has been successful

    但至少是我們做過 最有挑戰性的計畫之一。

  • deploying a huge constellation for internet broadband,

    還沒有人成功過,

  • or basically for satellite internet,

    部署一個系統來做網路寬頻用,

  • and I don't think physics is the difficulty here.

    或基本上做衛星網路用,

  • I think we can come up with the right technology solution,

    我認為這裡的困難之處不在物理。

  • but we need to make a business out of it,

    我認為我們能想出 正確的技術解決方案,

  • and it'll cost the company about 10 billion dollars or more

    但我們得要先把它變成生意,

  • to deploy this system.

    公司要花上一百億美元以上

  • And so we're marching steadily along

    來部署這個系統。

  • but we're certainly not claiming victory yet.

    所以,我們穩穩地向前走,

  • CA: I mean, the impact of that, obviously, if that happened to the world,

    但我們肯定還沒有宣佈勝利。

  • of connectivity everywhere, would be pretty radical,

    克:我是指,如果它真的 在這個世界上實現了,

  • and perhaps mainly for good --

    無所不在的連結所帶來的 衝擊會是相當根本的,

  • I mean, it changes a lot if suddenly everyone can connect cheaply.

    也許主要都是好的──

  • GS: Yeah, there's no question it'll change the world.

    我是指,如果突然大家都有 便宜的連線,會帶來很大的改變。

  • CA: How much of a worry is it,

    格:是的,毫無疑問, 它會改變世界。

  • and how much of a drag on the planning is it,

    克:擔心的程度有多高?

  • are concerns just about space junk?

    計畫上有沒有什麽扯後腿的東西?

  • People worry a lot about this.

    需要擔心的只有太空垃圾嗎?

  • This would a huge increase in the total number of satellites in orbit.

    大家挺擔心這一點的。

  • Is that a concern?

    在軌道上的衛星總數會大大增加。

  • GS: So space debris is a concern, there's no question --

    需要操心這點嗎?

  • not because it's so likely to happen,

    格:太空殘骸是一個考量, 這點毫無疑問。

  • but the consequences of it happening are pretty devastating.

    並不是因為它可能會發生,

  • You could basically spew a bunch of particles in orbit

    而是如果發生的話, 後果十分有破壞性。

  • that could take out that orbit from being useful for decades or longer.

    可能會在軌道上噴放出一堆碎片,

  • So as a matter of fact,

    會讓那軌道至少十年不能用。

  • we are required to bring down our second stage after every mission

    所以,事實上,

  • so it doesn't end up being a rocket carcass orbiting earth.

    在每一次任務之後, 我們都必須把第二節帶下來,

  • So you really need to be a good steward of that.

    最後才不會變成火箭屍體 繞著地球轉。

  • CA: So despite the remarkable success there

    我們真的得要做好那方面的管理。

  • of that Falcon Heavy rocket,

    克:儘管獵鷹重型運載火箭

  • you're actually not focusing on that as your future development plan.

    有很了不起的成功,

  • You're doubling down to a much bigger rocket

    你們並沒有把它當作是 未來發展計畫的焦點。

  • called the BFR,

    你們加倍投入在一台更大的火箭上,

  • which stands for ...

    叫做 BFR,

  • GS: It's the Big Falcon Rocket. CA: The Big Falcon Rocket, that's right.

    這個縮寫代表的是……

  • (Laughter)

    格:大型獵鷹火箭。 克:大型獵鷹火箭,沒錯。

  • What's the business logic of doing this

    (笑聲)

  • when you invested all that in that incredible technology,

    這麼做的商業邏輯是什麼?

  • and now you're just going to something much bigger. Why?

    當你們已經投資了那麼多 在那項了不起的技術上,

  • GS: Actually, we've learned some lessons

    現在,你們就只打算 做個更大的東西。為什麼?

  • over the duration where we've been developing these launch systems.

    格:其實我們學了一些教訓,

  • What we want to do is not introduce a new product before we've been able

    在我們開發這些 發射系統的時候學到的。

  • to convince the customers that this is the product that they should move to,

    當我們還無法說服客戶 他們應該要採用這新產品之前,

  • so we're working on the Big Falcon Rocket now,

    我們不會想要推出它,

  • but we're going to continue flying Falcon 9s and Falcon Heavies

    所以我們現在正努力投入 BFR,

  • until there is absolute widespread acceptance of BFR.

    但我們也會持續飛獵鷹九號 和獵鷹重型運載火箭,

  • But we are working on it right now,

    直到確定 BFR 能被廣為接受。

  • we're just not going to cancel Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy

    但我們現在正在努力,

  • and just put in place BFR.

    只是我們不會取消飛獵鷹九號 和獵鷹重型運載火箭,

  • CA: The logic is that BFR is what you need to take humanity to Mars?

    而單單採用 BFR。

  • GS: That's correct.

    克:邏輯是,如果你們要把人 送上火星,需要的是 BFR?

  • CA: But somehow, you've also found other business ideas for this.

    格:沒錯。

  • GS: Yes. BFR can take the satellites that we're currently taking to orbit

    克:但對此,你們也 找到了其他的商業點子。

  • to many orbits.

    格:是的。BFR 能把 我們目前帶到軌道上的衛星

  • It allows for even a new class of satellites to be delivered to orbit.

    帶到許多軌道上。

  • Basically, the width, the diameter of the fairing is eight meters,

    它甚至能帶一種 新類型的衛星到軌道上。

  • so you can think about what giant telescopes

    基本上,整流罩的寬度、 直徑是八公尺,

  • you can put in that fairing, in that cargo bay,

    所以,你可以想想, 在那整流罩裡,

  • and see really incredible things

    在那貨倉中,可以放 多巨大的望遠鏡,

  • and discover incredible things in space.

    能看到多了不起的東西,

  • But then there are some residual capabilities

    在太空中發掘了不起的東西。

  • that we have out of BFR as well.

    但我們從 BFR

  • CA: A residual capability? GS: It's a residual capability.

    也得到一些剩餘能力。

  • CA: Is that what you call this? Talk about what the heck this is.

    克:剩餘能力? 格:它是種剩餘能力。

  • Oh wait a sec --

    克:你是這麼稱呼它的? 談談它到底是什麼。

  • GS: That's Falcon Heavy.

    喔,等等──

  • That's worth pointing out, by the way.

    格:那是獵鷹重型運載火箭。 順道一提,那是值得點出的。

  • What a beautiful rocket,

    很漂亮的火箭,

  • and that hangar could just fit the Statue of Liberty in it,

    而那機棚可以容納得下自由女神像,

  • so you get a sense of size of that Falcon Heavy Rocket.

    這樣你就對獵鷹重型 運載火箭的大小有概念了。

  • CA: And the fact that there are 27 engines there.

    克:那裡有 27 具引擎。

  • That's part of the design principle

    那是設計原則的一部分,

  • that you, rather than just inventing ever bigger rockets,

    你不是去發明更大的火箭,

  • you team them up.

    你讓它們協作。

  • GS: It's exactly this residual capability.

    格:那就是剩餘能力。

  • We developed the Merlin engine for the Falcon 1 launch vehicle.

    我們為獵鷹一號發射載具 開發了梅林引擎。

  • We could have tossed that engine

    我們本來可以把那引擎丟掉,

  • and built an entirely new engine for the Falcon 9.

    打造一具全新的引擎給獵鷹九號。

  • It would have been called something different,

    它就會有個不同的名字,

  • because Falcon 9 is nine Merlin engines,

    因為獵鷹九號就是九具梅林引擎,

  • but instead of spending a billion dollars on a brand new engine,

    但我們沒有花十億美元 來打造全新引擎,

  • we put nine of them together on the back end of Falcon 9.

    我們把九具舊引擎 裝在獵鷹九號的後端。

  • Residual capability: glue three Falcon 9s together

    剩餘能力:把三台 獵鷹九號黏在一起,

  • and you have the largest operational rocket flying.

    你就得到了世界上最大的 能運作飛行的火箭。

  • And so it was expensive to do,

    這麼做是很昂貴,

  • but it was a much more efficient path than starting from scratch.

    但比起從零開始, 這種做法有效率得多。

  • CA: And the BFR is the equivalent of how much bigger than that,

    克:那麼 BFR 比那還要大多少?

  • in terms of its power?

    就動力上來說?

  • GS: BFR is about, I believe, two and half times the size of this.

    格:我認為,BFR 是它的 2.5 倍。

  • CA: Right, and so that allows you --

    克:好。所以那就讓你能──

  • I mean, I still don't really believe this video that we're about to play here.

    我是指,我仍然不敢置信 我們接下來要放的這支影片。

  • What on earth is this?

    這到底是什麼?

  • GS: So it currently is on earth,

    格:它目前還在地球上,

  • but this is basically space travel for earthlings.

    但基本上,這是 地球人的太空飛船旅行。

  • I can't wait for this residual capability.

    我等不及這項剩餘能力了。

  • Basically, what we're going to do is we're going to fly BFR like an aircraft

    基本上,我們打算要把 BFR 當成飛機來飛,

  • and do point-to-point travel on earth,

    在地球上做點到點的旅行,

  • so you can take off from New York City or Vancouver

    你可以從紐約市或溫哥華起飛,

  • and fly halfway across the globe.

    飛到地球的另一端。

  • You'll be on the BFR for roughly half an hour or 40 minutes,

    你待在 BFR 上的時間 大約是30~40 分鐘,

  • and the longest part -- yeah, it's so awesome.

    而最長的部分──是啊,很棒。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • The longest part of that flight is actually the boat out and back.

    那段飛行最長的部分, 其實是進出搭小船的時間。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • CA: I mean. Gwynne, come on, this is awesome, but it's crazy, right?

    克:我是指,格威妮,拜託, 這很棒,但這很瘋狂,對吧?

  • This is never going to actually happen.

    這永遠不會真的發生。

  • GS: Oh no, it's definitely going to happen.

    格:喔,不,它絕對會發生。

  • This is definitely going to happen.

    這絕對會發生。

  • CA: How?

    克:如何做?

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • So first of all, countries are going to accept this incoming missile --

    首先,各國家要能接受 這即將到來的飛彈──

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • GS: Chris, so can you imagine us trying to convince a federal range,

    格:克里斯,你能否想像 我們試圖說服一個聯邦試射場,

  • Air Force bases to take the incomers?

    空軍基地,願意接收來者?

  • Because we're doing it now, regularly, right?

    因為我們現在就經常在做,對吧?

  • We're bringing the first stages back,

    我們把第一節帶回來,

  • and we're landing them on federal property on an Air Force base.

    我們讓它們降著在 空軍基地的聯邦地產上。

  • So I think doing it, I don't know,

    所以我在想,在城市外圍,

  • 10 kilometers out from a city, maybe it's only five kilometers out from a city.

    我不知道,也許十公里或 五公里的地方來做這件事。

  • CA: So how many passengers can possibly afford the fortune

    克:有多少乘客有可能可以負擔得起

  • of flying by space?

    搭太空船飛行?

  • GS: So the first BFR is going to have roughly a hundred passengers.

    格:第一台 BFR 將會有 大約一百名乘客。

  • And let's talk a little bit about the business.

    讓我們談談生意的部分。

  • Everyone thinks rockets are really expensive,

    大家都認為火箭非常昂貴,

  • and to a large degree they are,

    的確可以說是如此,

  • and how could we possibly compete with airline tickets here?

    我們怎麼可能和 航空公司的機票競爭?

  • But if you think about it, if I can do this trip

    但試想一下,若我做這趟旅程

  • in half an hour to an hour,

    只要半小時到一小時,

  • I can do dozens of these a day, right?

    我一天就能飛好多趟,對吧?

  • And yet, a long-haul aircraft can only make one of those flights a day.

    然而,長途飛機一天只能 飛這些航程的其中一趟。

  • So even if my rocket was slightly more expensive

    所以,即使我的火箭稍微貴一點,

  • and the fuel is a little bit more expensive,

    且燃料也稍微貴一點,

  • I can run 10x at least what they're running in a day,

    我一天能運行的航程數 至少是他們的 10 倍,

  • and really make the revenue that I need to out of that system.

    就能從那系統賺到足夠的利潤。

  • CA: So you really believe this is going to be deployed at some point

    克:所以,你真心相信 在驚人未來的某個時點,

  • in our amazing future. When?

    這方案會被實行。何時?

  • GS: Within a decade, for sure.

    格:十年內,肯定的。

  • CA: And this is Gwynne time or Elon time?

    克:這是格威妮時間還是伊隆時間?

  • GS: That's Gwynne time. I'm sure Elon will want us to go faster.

    格:格威妮時間。我相信 伊隆會要我們更快完成。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • CA: OK, that's certainly amazing.

    克:好,那的確是很了不起。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • GS: I'm personally invested in this one, because I travel a lot

    格:我個人有投資這一項計畫, 因為我很常旅行,

  • and I do not love to travel,

    而我不愛旅行,

  • and I would love to get to see my customers in Riyadh,

    我會很樂意去見我在利雅德的客戶

  • leave in the morning and be back in time to make dinner.

    早上出門,晚上就能回家做晚餐。

  • CA: So we're going to test this out.

    克:所以我們要充分測試它。

  • So within 10 years, an economy price ticket,

    所以,在十年內,會有經濟艙價格,

  • or, like, a couple thousand dollars per person to fly New York to Shanghai.

    或約每人幾千塊美元的票, 從紐約飛到上海。

  • GS: Yeah, I think it'll be between economy and business,

    格:是的,我想票價 會在經濟艙和商務艙之間,

  • but you do it in an hour.

    但航程只要一小時。

  • CA: Yeah, well, OK, that is definitely something.

    克:是啊,好, 那肯定是值得重視的。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And meanwhile, the other use of BFR is being developed

    同時,也有在發展 BFR 的另一種用途,

  • to go a little bit further than Shanghai.

    到比上海更遠一點點的地方。

  • Talk about this.

    談談這點吧。

  • You guys have actually developed quite a detailed, sort of, picture

    你們已經發展出十分詳細的想像,

  • of how humans might fly to Mars,

    想像出人類要如何飛到火星,

  • and what that would look like.

    以及那會是什麼樣子。

  • GS: Yeah. So we've got a video, this is a cropped video

    格:是的。我們有支影片,它是我們

  • from others we've shown, and then there's a couple of new bits to it.

    已經看過的影片剪輯起來, 再加上一些新東西。

  • But basically, you're going to lift off from a pad,

    基本上,你會從發射台起飛,

  • you've got a booster as well as the BFS, the Big Falcon Spaceship.

    你會有推進器以及 BFS, 即大型獵鷹太空船。

  • It's going to take off.

    它會起飛。

  • The booster is going to drop the spaceship off in orbit,

    推進器會把太空船丟在軌道上,

  • low earth orbit,

    低地面軌道,

  • and then return just like we're returning boosters right now.

    它會返回,就像我們現在 讓推進器返回地球一樣。

  • So it sounds incredible, but we're working on the pieces,

    聽起來很不可思議, 但我們在努力做每一部分,

  • and you can see us achieve these pieces.

    你能看到我們完成這些部分。

  • So booster comes back.

    推進器回來了。

  • The new thing here

    這裡有個新發明,

  • is that we're going to actually land on the pad that we launched from.

    那就是,我們要讓它降落在 它起飛的那個發射台上。

  • Currently, we land on a separate pad, or we land out on a boat.

    目前,我們是降落在 不同的發射台或是船上。

  • Fast, quick connect.

    快速,馬上連結。

  • You take a cargo ship full of fuel,

    你可以找一台裝滿燃料的貨船,

  • or a fuel depot,

    或是一個燃料倉庫,

  • put it on that booster, get that in orbit,

    把它放在推進器上,讓它進入軌道,

  • do a docking maneuver, refuel the spaceship,

    想個方式來做對接, 就能為太空船補給燃料,

  • and head on to your destination,

    然後前往你的目的地,

  • and this one is Mars.

    這台的目的地是火星。

  • CA: So, like, a hundred people go to Mars at one time,

    克:所以就像是, 一次一百個人上火星,

  • taking, what, six months? Two months?

    要花多久?六個月?兩個月?

  • GS: It ends up depending on how big the rocket is.

    格:那最終還是要看火箭有多大。

  • I think this first version, and we'll continue to make

    我想如果用第一版,我們會持續

  • even bigger BFRs,

    製造更大的 BFR,

  • I think it's a three-month trip.

    第一版到火星大概要三個月。

  • Right now, the average is six to eight,

    目前,平均值是六到八個月,

  • but we're going to try to do it faster.

    但我們在試著讓它更快一點。

  • CA: When do you believe SpaceX will land the first human on Mars?

    克:你認為 SpaceX 何時 會讓第一個人登上火星?

  • GS: It's a very similar time frame from the point-to-point.

    格:和點到點計畫的 時間範圍差不多。

  • It's the same capability.

    用的是同樣的能力。

  • It will be within a decade -- not this decade.

    會在十年之內──不是這十年。

  • CA: In real time, again, within a decade.

    克:真實時間,在十年內。

  • Well, that would also be amazing.

    嗯,那也是很了不起的。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Why, though? Seriously, why?

    不過,為什麼?認真的,為什麼?

  • I mean, you've got a company where this is the official stated mission.

    我是指,你有間公司, 而這是官方聲明的任務。

  • Has everyone actually bought into that mission,

    對這個任務,大家真的都買帳嗎?

  • given that, I mean, there's a lot of people around

    我的意思是,畢竟身邊有很多人

  • who think, come on, you've got so much talent,

    會認為,拜託,你這麼有才華,

  • so much technology capability.

    技術能力又如此強大。

  • There are so many things on earth that need urgent attention.

    地球上有好多事物迫切需要被關注。

  • Why would you have this escape trip off to another planet?

    為什麼你要做這種 逃向另一個星球的旅行?

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • GS: So I am glad you asked that,

    格:我很高興你問了,

  • but I think we need to expand our minds a little bit.

    但我想我們得再把心智擴展一些。

  • There are plenty of things to do on earth,

    地球上有很多事情要做,

  • but there are lots of companies working on that.

    但有許多公司投入在那些事情上。

  • I think we're working on one of the most important things we possibly can,

    我想,我們是致力於我們 能做到最重要的事情之一,

  • and that's to find another place for humans to live and survive and thrive.

    也就是找到另一個地方 給人類居住、生存,和茁壯。

  • If something happened on earth,

    如果地球發生了什麼事,

  • you need humans living somewhere else.

    你會需要讓人類住在其他地方。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • It's the fundamental risk reduction for the human species.

    這是為人類降低根本性的風險。

  • And this does not subvert

    這並不會顛覆

  • making our planet here better and doing a better job taking care of it,

    讓地球更好,把地球照顧得更好,

  • but I think you need multiple paths to survival,

    但我認為,你要有多種生存途徑,

  • and this is one of them.

    這就是其中一條途徑。

  • And let's not talk about the downer piece,

    我們不要談掃興的部分,

  • like, you go to Mars to make sure all earthlings don't die.

    比如,你到火星是要 確保人類不會滅絕。

  • That's terrible, actually, that's a terrible reason to go do it.

    那很糟糕,以這個理由 來做這件事,是很糟糕的。

  • Fundamentally, it's another place to explore,

    基本上,就是去探索另一個地方,

  • and that's what makes humans different from animals,

    那就是人類和動物的差別,

  • it's our sense of exploration and sense of wonderment

    我們有探索感和驚奇感,

  • and learning something new.

    會去學習新事物。

  • And then I also have to say,

    我也得要說,

  • this is the first step in us moving to other solar systems

    這只是我們的第一步, 朝其他太陽系邁進,

  • and potentially other galaxies,

    甚至其他銀河系邁進,

  • and I think this is the only time I ever out-vision Elon,

    我想只有這麼一次, 我的遠景比伊隆還遠,

  • because I want to meet other people in other solar systems.

    因為我想要見見 其他太陽系的其他人。

  • Mars is fine, but it is a fixer-upper planet.

    火星很好,但它需要整修才能住人。

  • There's work to do there to make it habitable.

    還要花些功夫才能讓它適合居住。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • I want to find people, or whatever they call themselves,

    我想要找到其他太陽系中的「人」,

  • in another solar system.

    或看他們如何自稱。

  • CA: That is a big vision.

    克:那是好大的遠景。

  • Gwynne Shotwell, thank you.

    格威妮紹特韋爾,謝謝你。

  • You have one of the most amazing jobs on the planet.

    你有地球上最了不起的工作之一。

  • GS: Thank you very much. Thanks, Chris.

    格:非常謝謝你。謝謝,克里斯。

Chris Anderson: So two months ago, something crazy happened.

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

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【TED】Gwynne Shotwell。SpaceX的計劃讓你在30分鐘內飛越地球(SpaceX的計劃讓你在30分鐘內飛越地球|Gwynne Shotwell)。 (【TED】Gwynne Shotwell: SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes (SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes | Gwynne Shotwell))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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