We're trying to do some bridging here today.

克里斯·安德森（CA）： 歡迎來到新一期的 TED 對話。

You know, the American dream has inspired millions of people

今天我們準備溝通天地，連接你我。

around the world for many years.

大家都知道，多年來美國夢激勵了

Today, I think, you can say that America is divided,

遍佈世界各地數百萬人。

perhaps more than ever,

而如今，我覺得可以說美國是分裂的，

and the divisions seem to be getting worse.

可能比以往更甚；

It's actually really hard for people on different sides

而且分歧也越來越糟。

to even have a conversation.

說真的，各個陣營的人

People almost feel...

都很難進行一場對話。

disgusted with each other.

人們幾乎是......

Some families can't even speak to each other right now.

討厭彼此，

Our purpose in this dialogue today is to try to do something about that,

當下的有些家庭甚至互不講話。

to try to have a different kind of conversation,

這個對話的目的就是為此做點什麼，

to do some listening, some thinking, some understanding.

嘗試不同方式的交流，

And I have two people with us to help us do that.

有傾聽，有思考，還有理解。

They're not going to come at this hammer and tong against each other.

今天將有兩位嘉賓 來幫助我們一起做這件事。

This is not like cable news.

他們今天不會唇槍舌戰，

This is two people who have both spent a lot of their working life

這裡也不像有線電視新聞節目。

in the political center or right of the center.

這二位在職業生涯中很多時間

They've immersed themselves in conservative worldviews, if you like.

持政治中立或者中立稍偏右態度。

They know that space very well.

你也可以理解為，他們 沉浸在保守的世界觀中，

And we're going to explore together

他們對這個很在行。

how to think about what is happening right now,

接下來，我們將一起探討

and whether we can find new ways to bridge

如何看待時下所發生的事情，

and just to have wiser, more connected conversations.

能否搭橋找到新的契機，

With me, first of all, Gretchen Carlson,

只為了建立更睿智、更有效的溝通。

who has spent a decade working at Fox News,

首先有請葛蕾琴·卡森，

hosting "Fox and Friends" and then "The Real Story,"

她在福克斯新聞工作了十年，

before taking a courageous stance in filing sexual harassment claims

在她勇敢地指控

against Roger Ailes,

羅傑斯·艾爾斯性騷擾前，

which eventually led to his departure from Fox News.

她先是主持《福克斯和朋友們》， 然後主持《實話實説》新聞節目，

David Brooks, who has earned the wrath

她的指控最終導致 羅傑斯·艾爾斯離開福克斯新聞。

of many of [The New York Times's] left-leaning readers

另一位是大偉·布庫斯，

because of his conservative views,

因其保守觀點，引發眾多

and more recently, perhaps, some of the right-leaning readers

《紐約時報》左傾讀者的憤怒；

because of his criticism of some aspects of Trump.

就在最近，可能因其 對川普某些方面的批評，

Yet, his columns are usually

有些右傾讀者 也加入聲討他的行列中。

the top one, two or three most-read content of the day

但是，他的專欄

because they're brilliant,

通常是每日閱讀量的前三，

because they bring psychology and social science

原因就在於內容精彩，

to providing understanding for what's going on.

因為他從心理學和社會科學角度，

So without further ado, a huge welcome to Gretchen and David.

讓人們明白當下發生的事情。

Come and join me.

話不多說，熱烈歡迎葛蕾琴和大偉。

(Applause)

請坐。

So, Gretchen.

（掌聲）

Sixty-three million Americans voted for Donald Trump.

葛蕾琴，

Why did they do this?

6300 萬的美國人選出了唐納•川普，

Gretchen Carlson: There are a lot of reasons, in my mind, why it happened.

他們為什麼這麼做？

I mean, I think it was a movement of sorts, but it started long ago.

葛蕾琴：在我看來， 有很多因素導致為什麼會這樣。

It didn't just happen overnight.

我是想說這是一種運動， 但早些年就開始了，

"Anger" would be the first word that I would think of --

這不是一夜之間發生的。

anger with nothing being done in Washington,

「憤怒」是我想到的第一個詞，

anger about not being heard.

對政府的不作為感到憤怒，

I think there was a huge swath of the population

對自己的聲音沒人理會感到憤怒。

that feels like Washington never listens to them,

我覺得有一大群怒火中燒的人，

you know, a good part of the middle of America, not just the coasts,

感覺政府從來不聽他們的心聲；

and he was somebody they felt was listening to their concerns.

有很大一部分是美國中部的， 不只是在沿海地區，

So I think those two issues would be the main reason.

川普讓這些人覺得 他在傾聽他們的訴求。

I have to throw in there also celebrity.

所以我認為這兩個是主要原因。

I think that had a huge impact on Donald Trump becoming president.

當然還要考慮他是名人，

CA: Was the anger justified?

我認為這對唐納•川普 成為總統有很大的影響。

David Brooks: Yeah, I think so.

CA：「憤怒」有道理嗎？

In 2015 and early 2016, I wrote about 30 columns

大偉（CB）：是的，我認為有道理。

with the following theme:

在 2015 年和 2016 年初， 我大概寫了 30 篇專欄文章，

don't worry, Donald Trump will never be the Republican nominee.

有關以下主題：

(Laughter)

別擔心，唐納•川普 不會被共和黨提名。

And having done that and gotten that so wrong,

（笑聲）

I decided to spend the ensuing year just out in Trumpworld,

這樣做的結局很糟糕，

and I found a lot of economic dislocation.

我決定接下來一年專注於川普世界，

I ran into a woman in West Virginia who was going to a funeral for her mom.

還發現很多經濟失調的問題。

She said, "The nice thing about being Catholic is we don't have to speak,

我在維吉尼亞州遇到一位女士， 她要去參加母親的葬禮。

and that's good, because we're not word people."

她說：「身為天主教徒的好處 是我們不必說話，

That phrase rung in my head: word people.

這很好，因為我們不是 善於舞文弄墨的人。」

A lot of us in the TED community are word people,

那句話一直在我腦海裡迴響： 舞文弄墨的人。

but if you're not, the economy has not been angled toward you,

我們 TED 論壇很多人 都是和文字打交道的，

and so 11 million men, for example, are out of the labor force

如果不是，經濟不會站在你這邊；

because those jobs are done away.

比方説，1100 萬人失業了，

A lot of social injury.

因為這些工作已經沒有了，

You used to be able to say, "I'm not the richest person in the world,

這對社會傷害很大。

I'm not the most famous,

你以前會說： 「我不是世界上最有錢的，

but my neighbors can count on me and I get some dignity out of that."

也不是最有名的，

And because of celebritification or whatever, if you're not rich or famous,

但鄰居們可以仰賴我， 我也以此為傲。」

you feel invisible.

要不是遇上烏鴉 變鳳凰這些個有的沒的，

And a lot of moral injury, sense of feeling betrayed,

倘若沒錢無名，你覺得 自己被當成空氣了。

and frankly, in this country, we almost have one success story,

還有道德上的傷害，感覺被背叛了，

which is you go to college, get a white-collar job, and you're a success,

坦率地說，在這個國家， 我們幾乎有個成功的故事：

and if you don't fit in that formula,

那就是你上完大學， 找份白領的工作，你就是成功的；

you feel like you're not respected.

但如果你不符合那個流程，

And so that accumulation of things --

你會覺得被看不起。

and when I talked to Trump voters and still do,

所以，當經過歲月的蹉跎，

I found most of them completely realistic about his failings,

我問起川普的選民， 現在也還在問，

but they said, this is my shot.

我發現大多數人 對他的失敗都超現實，

GC: And yet I predicted that he would be the nominee,

不過他們說，這是我的機會。

because I've known him for 27 years.

GC：但是我知道他會被提名，

He's a master marketer,

因為我認識他都27年了。

and one of the things he did extremely well

他是一個行銷大師。

that President Obama also did extremely well,

有件事他做得非常好，

was simplifying the message,

奧巴馬總統也做得不錯，

simplifying down to phrases

就是簡化了資訊消息，

and to a populist message.

簡單到口號

Even if he can't achieve it, it sounded good.

和親民的短消息。

And many people latched on to that simplicity again.

就算他難以兌現承諾，但聽起來不錯。

It's something they could grasp onto:

於是很多人再次理解這種簡約，

"I get that. I want that. That sounds fantastic."

這是他們可以理解的：

And I remember when he used to come on my show originally,

「我懂，要的就是這個， 聽起來太棒了。」

before "The Apprentice" was even "The Apprentice,"

我還記得他早年來上我的節目，

and he'd say it was the number one show on TV.

那時《誰是接班人》節目 遠不像現在眾所周知，

I'd say back to him, "No, it's not."

他會說這是排名第一的電視節目。

And he would say, "Yes it is, Gretchen."

我回他說：「不，根本不是。」

And I would say, "No it's not."

他會說：「是第一，葛蕾琴。」

But people at home would see that, and they'd be like,

我會說：「就不是的。」

"Wow, I should be watching the number one show on TV."

但人們在家會看這個節目而且會說：

And -- lo and behold -- it became the number one show on TV.

「哇，我應該看看這個 第一名的電視節目。」

So he had this, I've seen this ability in him

你瞧，《誰是接班人》還真成了 第一熱門的電視節目。

to be the master marketer.

所以他很有一套， 我在他身上看到了

CA: It's puzzling to a lot of people on the left

成為營銷大師的能力。

that so many women voted for him,

CA：對許多左派來說， 令人困惑的是：

despite some of his comments.

儘管他說了一些侮辱女性言論，

GC: I wrote a column about this for Time Motto,

很多女性還是投了贊成票。

saying that I really believe that lot of people put on blinders,

GC：我就此給《時代週刊》的 〈Motto 〉欄目寫過專欄，

and maybe for the first time,

在文章中寫到，我真的相信 很多人對此選擇視而不見，

some people decided that policies they believed in

也許是有生的第一次，

and being heard and not being invisible anymore

有人認為他們所相信的政策

was more important to them

能被聽到而不是視而不見

than the way in which he had acted or acts as a human.

對他們來說更重要，

And so human dignity --

這些比起川普作為一個 普通人的行為不妥更重要，

whether it would be the dust-up about the disabled reporter,

至於人格——

or what happened in that audiotape with Billy Bush

無論是關於殘障記者的口水戰，

and the way in which he spoke about women --

還是對比利·布希的錄音帶事件，

they put that aside

當然還有他調侃女人的方式；

and pretended as if they hadn't seen that or heard that,

他們就把它擱到一邊，

because to them, policies were more important.

裝聾作啞或視而不見。

CA: Right, so just because someone voted for Trump,

對他們來說，政策才更重要。

it's not blind adherence to everything that he's said or stood for.

CA：是的，這些人投票支持川普，

GC: No. I heard a lot of people that would say to me,

也並非盲目地堅持他所說的一切。

"Wow, I just wish he would shut up before the election.

GC：不是的，我聽到很多人對我說，

If he would just stay quiet, he'd get elected."

「天呐，我就希望選舉前他能閉嘴，

CA: And so, maybe for people on the left there's a trap there,

只要他閉嘴別亂說，會當選的。」

to sort of despise or just be baffled by the support,

CA：所以對左派來說， 認為裡面有貓膩，

assuming that it's for some of the unattractive features.

有點鄙視她們支持川普 或者說被搞糊塗了，

Actually, maybe they're supporting him despite those,

以為是因為一些沒有新意的觀點，

because they see something exciting.

實際上就算有這些， 他們也還是會支持他，

They see a man of action.

因為他們看到了令人振奮的東西，

They see the choking hold of government being thrown off in some way

人們看到了實幹家。

and they're excited by that.

他們看到政府桎梏就這麽被甩掉，

GC: But don't forget we saw that on the left as well -- Bernie Sanders.

人們對此感到興奮。

So this is one of the commonalities that I think we can talk about today,

GC：但別忘了我們在左派人士 伯尼·桑德斯身上也看到了這些。

"The Year of the Outsider," David -- right?

這就是我覺得今天 可以拿來談論的共通處之一，

And even though Bernie Sanders has been in Congress for a long time,

《局外人的一年》，大偉，對嗎？

he was deemed an outsider this time.

儘管伯尼·桑德斯 在國會有些時間了，

And so there was anger on the left as well,

但這次他被當做局外人。

and so many people were in favor of Bernie Sanders.

所以左派也很憤怒，

So I see it as a commonality.

有那麽多人支持伯尼·桑德斯。

People who like Trump, people who like Bernie Sanders,

我認為它有共通性。

they were liking different policies, but the underpinning was anger.

喜歡川普的人， 喜歡伯尼·桑德斯的人，

CA: David, there's often this narrative, then,

他們喜歡不同的政策， 但深層次的卻是憤怒。

that the sole explanation for Trump's victory and his rise

CA：大偉，總是有這麽個説法，

is his tapping into anger in a very visceral way.

對川普勝利及崛起的唯一正解

But you've written a bit about that it's actually more than that,

就是他對憤怒者直達心扉。

that there's a worldview that's being worked on here.

但你也寫到實際上不止這些，

Could you talk about that?

還有個現行的世界觀。

DB: I would say he understood what, frankly, I didn't,

你要不來講講？

which is what debate we were having.

DB：坦白說，我會說 川普明白我不懂的東西，

And so I'd grown up starting with Reagan,

這正是我們在辯論的內容。

and it was the big government versus small government debate.

我成長於雷根時代，

It was Barry Goldwater versus George McGovern,

是大小政府間的辯論。

and that was the debate we had been having for a generation.

貝利·高華德對喬治·麥戈文，

It was: Democrats wanted to use government to enhance equality,

是我們那代人的討論。

Republicans wanted to limit government to enhance freedom.

那就是：民主黨人想讓政府加強平等；

That was the debate.

共和黨人想限制政府來提高自由，

He understood what I think the two major parties did not,

這就是那時的辯論。

which was that's not the debate anymore.

他曉得而我覺得兩大黨派卻沒搞懂，

The debate is now open versus closed.

那就是再也不必辯論了。

On one side are those who have the tailwinds of globalization

現在的爭議是開放對封閉。

and the meritocracy blowing at their back,

一方是全球化風生水起

and they tend to favor open trade,

及背後強大的精英團隊；

open borders, open social mores,

他們傾向於自由貿易、

because there are so many opportunities.

開放的邊界、開放的公序良俗，

On the other side are those who feel the headwinds of globalization

因為這樣做有很多機會。

and the meritocracy just blasting in their faces,

另一方是那些逆全球化

and they favor closed trade, closed borders, closed social mores,

衝著精英主義者正面打臉，

because they just want some security.

他們喜歡封閉的貿易、 封閉邊界、封閉的社會道德，

And so he was right on that fundamental issue,

因為他們只想要安全。

and people were willing to overlook a lot to get there.

所以他在這個根本問題上是對的，

And so he felt that sense of security.

人們為了這個安全願意忽視些東西。

We're speaking the morning after Trump's joint session speech.

他有種給人安全的感覺。

There are three traditional groups in the Republican Party.

在川普聯合會議發言後的 第二天早上，我們說過：

There are the foreign policies hawks

共和黨有三個傳統團體，

who believe in America as global policeman.

有外交鷹派，

Trump totally repudiated that view.

相信美國是全球警衛，

Second, there was the social conservatives

川普完全否認這觀點。

who believed in religious liberty,

其次，有社會保守派，

pro-life,

相信宗教自由、

prayer in schools.

反墮胎、

He totally ignored that.

允許校內禱告。

There was not a single mention of a single social conservative issue.

他完全忽視這點，

And then there were the fiscal hawks,

對於任何社會保守問題都隻字未提。

the people who wanted to cut down on the national debt, Tea Party,

剩下就是財富鷹派，

cut the size of government.

那些想減少國債的人，

He's expanding the size of government!

茶黨要求削減政府規模；

Here's a man who has single-handedly revolutionized a major American party

而川普在擴大政府規模！

because he understood where the debate was headed

就這麽個人，他隻手 革了美國主要政黨的命，

before other people.

因為他比其他人更早知道

And then guys like Steve Bannon come in

辯論的方向。

and give him substance to his impulses.

像史蒂芬·班農這樣的人參與進來，

CA: And so take that a bit further,

給川普的口號提供實質行動支持。

and maybe expand a bit more on your insights

CA：再往深處談一下，

into Steve Bannon's worldview.

也許可以拓展下你們的看法，

Because he's sometimes tarred in very simple terms

有關史蒂芬·班農的世界觀。

as this dangerous, racist, xenophobic, anger-sparking person.

有時，他被極簡的方式標注為：

There's more to the story; that is perhaps an unfair simplification.

這個危險、種族主義者， 排外、怒火中燒的傢伙。

DB: I think that part is true,

但故事沒那麽簡單； 這種簡化相當不公平。

but there's another part that's probably true, too.

DB：我覺得這部分是對的，

He's part of a global movement.

但另外部分也沒錯。

It's like being around Marxists in 1917.

他是全球化運動的一部分，

There's him here, there's the UKIP party, there's the National Front in France,

就像 1917 年的馬克思主義運動一樣。

there's Putin, there's a Turkish version, a Philippine version.

他所處的時代有英國獨立黨， 還有法國國民陣線，

So we have to recognize that this is a global intellectual movement.

有普京，有土耳其、菲律賓的版本。

And it believes

所以我們得認識到 這是全球的知性運動。

that wisdom and virtue is not held in individual conversation and civility

人們認為，

the way a lot of us in the enlightenment side of the world do.

有些人的言談舉止毫無德智可言，

It's held in -- the German word is the "volk" -- in the people,

與我們很多人所遵循的 世界啟蒙信條不同。

in the common, instinctive wisdom of the plain people.

這些美德就在人民中， 德語中「Volk」是人民，

And the essential virtue of that people is always being threatened by outsiders.

就藏在樸實平常的普通百姓 與生俱來的智慧裡，

And he's got a strategy for how to get there.