Name: 【TED】大衛-李：為什麼未來的工作不會有工作的感覺(Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee) (【TED】David Lee: Why jobs of the future won't feel like work (Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:30:47.000Z
Duration: 10 min 7 s

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

程度副詞

近期有不少相當有根據的擔心，

反身代名詞

that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

And I think the example of a self-driving car

會讓我們走向一個失業的未來。

So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

基於各種理由，這些科技應該 對我們都很有幫助才對。

但各位是否知道， 美國 50 州當中有 29 州

What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

「司機」這個工作 是最多人從事的工作？

將來這些工作會變成怎樣？ 如果我們不再開車了、

Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

有項研究指出， 預計在接下來的十年間，

that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

這個數字是金融危機失業數的三倍。

On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

in the quality of analysis and decision-making

都能看到機器學習 在分析與決策的品質上

So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

已經幫助投資者獲得相當大的收益。

What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

即使是最聰明、高薪的人， 也會被這改變給影響到。

可以知道的是， 不論你的工作是什麼，

is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

在接下來幾年， 你的工作至少有一部份，

And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

甚至全部，將會由 機器人或軟體來接手。

are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

這也是為什麼馬克祖克柏 和比爾蓋茲他們這些人，

But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

會談到需要有由政府發動資助 最低收入水平的政策。

但如果政客們都無法搞定 全民健保或甚至是營養午餐

I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

那我實在看不出， 他們要如何在像是

Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

全體基本生活收入這種 要花大錢的大事上取得共識。

We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

我反而認為，應變方式 應該由產業界來帶頭領導才是。

and start to design the new kinds of jobs

我們得要認清將來要面對的改變，

that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

讓我們在機器人時代 仍有實質性的工作可做。

好消息是，我們以前就面臨並克服過

the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

美國以農田為基礎的 工人少了 90%，

the percent of Americans working in factories

然後，1950 年到 2010 年 又發生一次，

The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

然而，這次我們面對的挑戰， 是時間上的挑戰。

and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

我們從農業社會轉換到工業社會， 用了一百年的時間，

然後用了六十年的時間， 才完整服務業經濟的轉型。

suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

我們可能只有十到 十五年的時間來調整，

that means by the time today's elementary-school students

we could be living in a world that's robotic,

largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

大量失業的機器人世界， 並卡在一種不怎麼大的蕭條經濟中。

但我覺得並非得一定要走上這一步。

and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

有一部分是在幫大公司 規劃如何應用新技術。

are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

是特別設計來取代人類勞動者的。

但我相信，如果我們現在就起步，

we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

but also generate the innovation that we need

我們不但能創造出讓人們 樂意去的工作環境，

to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

來取代數百萬個 因科技而消失的工作。

我相信，預防未來失業的關鍵在於

and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

並創造出以人類為 中心的新一代工作，

But first, I think it's important to recognize

that we brought this problem on ourselves.

但，首先，很重要的是要知道，

And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

原因並不只是因為 我們建造了機器人。

雖然數十年前大部份的工作 已經在工廠消失，

We still define jobs around procedural tasks

and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

我們仍然以程序性任務來定義工作，

然後根據人們花在這些 任務上的時數來支付薪水。

like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

and then asked people to form entire careers

如出納員、貸款程序員、 計程車司機，

然後要求人們用這些單一任務來

These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

這些選擇其實 會帶給我們兩個副作用。

will be the first to be displaced by robots,

because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

會是最先被機器人取代的工作，

因為處理單一任務的 機器人最容易做。

so that millions of workers around the world

Let's take the example of a call center agent.

Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

在過去幾十年， 我們吹噓著要壓低營運成本，

out of the person and put it into the system.

因為我們把大部份需要腦力的工作，

For most of their day, they click on screens,

這些人大部份的工作時間 是在點選螢幕、

And unfortunately, over the next few years,

他們的行為比較像機器而非人類。

they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

他們以及像是辦事員、記帳員等等，

To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

將要面臨工作機會大量消失的現象。

that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

要對抗這現象， 就得要開始創造新工作，

and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

【TED】大衛-李：為什麼未來的工作不會有工作的感覺(Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee) (【TED】David Lee: Why jobs of the future won't feel like work (Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee))

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【TED】大衛-李：為什麼未來的工作不會有工作的感覺(Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee) (【TED】David Lee: Why jobs of the future won't feel like work (Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee))

mindset

recognize

brag

ability