If we get our cities right,

以下是一個預測。

we just might survive the 21st century.

如果把我們的城市弄好，

We get them wrong,

我們有可能可以撐過二十一世紀。

and we're done for.

如果沒弄好，

Cities are the most extraordinary experiment in social engineering

我們就完蛋了。

that we humans have ever come up with.

在社會工程中，我們人類所能想出

If you live in a city,

最不凡的實驗，就是城市。

and even if you live in a slum --

如果你住在城市中，

which 20 percent of the world's urban population does --

即使是在貧民區——

you're likely to be healthier, wealthier, better educated

世界都市人口中有 20% 住在貧民區——

and live longer than your country cousins.

比起你的鄉下表親， 你有可能會更健康、

There's a reason why three million people are moving to cities

更有錢、教育水平更高、更長壽。

every single week.

每一週都有三百萬人搬入城市，

Cities are where the future happens first.

必有其因。

They're open, they're creative, they're dynamic, they're democratic,

未來會先發生在城市裡。

they're cosmopolitan,

城市是開放的、有創意的、 動態的、民主的，

they're sexy.

它們是世界性的，

They're the perfect antidote to reactionary nationalism.

它們很迷人。

But cities have a dark side.

它們是反動民族主義的完美解藥。

They take up just three percent of the world's surface area,

但城市也有黑暗面。

but they account for more than 75 percent of our energy consumption,

它們佔據世界表面面積的 3%，

and they emit 80 percent of our greenhouse gases.

卻消耗掉 75% 的能源。

There are hundreds of thousands of people who die in our cities

溫室氣體中有 80% 是城市排放的。

every single year from violence,

在城市中，每年有數十萬人

and millions more who are killed as a result of car accidents

死於暴力，

and pollution.

另外還有數百萬人因為車禍

In Brazil, where I live,

及污染而死。

we've got 25 of the 50 most homicidal cities on the planet.

我住在巴西，

And a quarter of our cities have chronic water shortages --

地球上兇殺案最高的 50 個城市， 巴西有 25 個。

and this, in a country with 20 percent of the known water reserves.

四分之一的巴西城市長期缺水，

So cities are dual-edged.

就在這個擁有 20% 的 已知儲水量的國家裡。

Part of the problem is that,

所以，城市是雙刃的。

apart from a handful of megacities in the West and the Far East,

有一部份的問題是，

we don't know that much about the thousands of cities

除了西方和遠東的一些 百萬人口大城市之外，

in Africa, in Latin America, in Asia,

我們對於在非洲、南美、亞洲的

where 90 percent of all future population growth is set to take place.

數千個城市沒了解多少，

So why this knowledge gap?

但未來 90% 的人口成長 會發生在這些地方。

Well, part of the problem

怎麼會有這知識落差？

is that we still see the world through the lens of nation-states.

其中的部份問題是我們仍然

We're still locked in a 17th-century paradigm

用民族國家的角度來看世界。

of parochial national sovereignty.

我們還被鎖在十七世紀的範式中，

And yet, in the 1600's,

教區國家主權的範式中。

when nation-states were really coming into their own,

但，在十七世紀，

less than one percent of the world's population

民族國家真正興起，

resided in a city.

當時只有不到 1% 的世界人口

Today, it's 54 percent.

住在城市裡。

And by 2050, it will be closer to 70 percent.

現今是 54%。

So the world has changed.

到 2050 年會接近 70%。

We have these 193 nation-states,

所以，世界改變了。

but we have easily as many cities that are beginning to rival them

我們有 193 個民族國家，

in power and influence.

但輕易就有 193 個城市， 在權力和影響力上

Just look at New York.

能與它們匹敵。

The Big Apple has 8.5 million people

看看紐約就知道。

and an annual budget of 80 billion dollars.

大蘋果（紐約）有 850 萬人，

Its GDP is 1.5 trillion,

年度預算為 800 億美元。

which puts it higher than Argentina and Australia,

它的 GDP 是 1.5 兆美元，

Nigeria and South Africa.

高於阿根廷、澳洲、

Its roughly 40,000 police officers

奈及利亞、南非。

means it has one of the largest police departments in the world,

它有大約四萬名警力，

rivaling all but the largest nation-states.

也就是說它有世界上最大的警局，

But cities like New York

不輸給最大的民族國家。

or São Paulo

但這樣的城市，像紐約、

or Johannesburg

或聖保羅、

or Dhaka

或約翰尼斯堡、

or Shanghai --

或達卡、

they're punching above their weight economically,

或上海——

but below their weight politically.

它們在經濟上的影響力 超過自身的組織規模，

And that's going to have to change.

在政治上的影響力卻遠遜於後。

Cities are going to have to find their political voice

這點得要改變才行。

if we want to change things.

如果我們想要做出改變，

Now, I want to talk to you a little bit about the risks

城市就得要找到它們的政治聲音。

that cities are facing --

我想要和各位談一下城市

some of the big mega-risks.

所面臨的風險，

I'm also going to talk to you briefly about some of the solutions.

一些巨大風險。

I'm going to do this using a big data visualization

我也打算簡短談一些解決方案。

that was developed with Carnegie Mellon's CREATE Lab and my institute,

而我要用來視覺化 呈現大量資料的方式，

along with many, many others.

是由卡內基美隆大學的 CREATE 實驗室和我的學校，

I want you to first imagine the world not as made up of nation-states,

及許多其他人一同研發的。

but as made up of cities.

首先，我想請各位想像， 世界並非由民族國家組成，

What you see here is every single city

而是由城市組成。

with a population of a quarter million people or more.

你們在這裡看到的是

Now, without going into technical detail,

人口高於 25 萬的所有城市。

the redder the circle, the more fragile that city is,

我們就不談技術細節了，

and the bluer the circle, the more resilient.

圓圈越紅的城市就越脆弱，

Fragility occurs when the social contract comes unstuck.

圓圈越藍的城市適應力越強。

And what we tend to see is a convergence of multiple kinds of risks:

社會契約失敗時，就會脆弱。

income inequality,

而我們傾向於看到多種風險的聚合：

poverty,

收入不平等、

youth unemployment,

貧困、

different issues around violence,

年輕人失業、

even exposure to droughts, cyclones and earthquakes.

暴力相關議題、

Now obviously, some cities are more fragile than others.

甚至發生乾旱、暴風、 地震的可能性。

The good news, if there is any,

顯然，有些城市比其他城市更脆弱。

is that fragility is not a permanent condition.

如果有好消息的話，那就是，

Some cities that were once the most fragile cities in the world,

脆弱不是永久的狀態。

like Bogotá in Colombia

有些城市曾經是 世界上最脆弱的城市，

or Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,

比如哥倫比亞的波哥大、

have now fallen more around the national average.

或墨西哥的華瑞茲城，

The bad news is that fragility is deepening,

它們現在回到了國家平均值上下。

especially in those parts of the world that are most vulnerable,

壞消息是，脆弱正在加深中，

in North Africa, the Middle East,

特別是在世界上最易受傷害的區域，

in South Asia and Central Asia.

在北非、中東、

There, we're seeing fragility rising way beyond scales we've ever seen before.

南亞、中亞。

When cities become too fragile they can collapse,

在那些地方，脆弱飛升， 是我們從未見過的規模。

tip over and fail.

當城市太脆弱，它們可能會垮掉、

And when that happens,

倒下、失敗。

we have explosive forms of migration:

如果發生了，

refugees.

就會有爆炸性形式的遷移：

There are more than 22 million refugees in the world today,

難民。

more than at any other time since the second world war.

現今全世界有超過 2200 萬難民，

Now, there's not one refugee crisis;

是第二次世界大戰之後的最高峰。

there are multiple refugee crises.

現在有的，不是「一個」難民危機，

And contrary to what you might read in the news,

而是有多重難民危機。

the vast majority of refugees aren't fleeing from poor countries

和你們在新聞上看到的相反，

to wealthy countries,

絕大多數難民並不是從貧窮的國家

they're moving from poor cities into even poorer cities --

逃到有錢的國家，

often, cities nearby.

他們是從貧窮城市 移居到更貧窮的城市——

Every single dot on this map represents an agonizing story

通常是附近的城市。

of struggle and survival.

這張地圖上的每個點都代表

But I want to briefly tell you about what's not on that map,

一個掙扎和生存的痛苦故事。

and that's internal displacement.

但我想要簡短告訴各位， 地圖上看不到的，

There are more than 36 million people who have been internally displaced

就是國內的流離失所。

around the world.

全世界就有 3600 萬

These are people living in refugee-like conditions,

國內流離失所者。

but lacking the equivalent international protection and assistance.

這些人的生活條件像是難民，

And to understand their plight,

卻缺乏相等的國際保護和協助。

I want to zoom in briefly on Syria.

為了說明他們的困境，

Syria suffered one of the worst droughts in its history between 2007 and 2010.

我想簡短針對敘利亞來談談。

More than 75 percent of its agriculture and 85 percent of its livestock

2007~2010 年間，敘利亞發生了 史上最嚴重的旱災之一。

were wiped out.

超過 75% 的農業和 85% 的家畜

And in the process, over a million people moved into cities

徹底報銷了。

like Aleppo, Damascus and Homs.

過程中，有超過百萬人搬到城市中，

As food prices began to rise,

如阿勒坡、大馬士革、霍姆斯。

you also had equivalent levels of social unrest.

隨著食物價格開始上漲，

And when the regime of President Assad began cracking down,

社會不安也會同等上漲。

you had an explosion of refugees.

當阿薩德總統的政權開始鎮壓，

You also had over six million internally displaced people,

難民人數就爆增。

many of whom when on to become refugees.

國內就有六百萬背井離鄉的人，

And they didn't just move to neighboring countries like Jordan

當中許多人接著成為難民。

or Lebanon or Turkey.

他們不只是搬到鄰近的國家，

They also moved up north towards Western Europe.

如約旦、黎巴嫰、或土耳其。

See, over 1.4 million Syrians made the perilous journey

他們也向北搬到西歐。

through the Mediterranean and up through Turkey

超過 140 萬敘利亞人 踏上危險之旅，

to find their way into two countries, primarily:

穿過地中海，北上穿過土耳其，

Germany and Sweden.

找到方法進入兩個主要國家：

Now, climate change --

德國和瑞典。

not just drought, but also sea level rise,

氣候變遷，

is probably one of the most severe existential threats

不只是旱災，還有海平面上升，

that cities face.

可能是城市目前要面對的威脅當中，

That's because two-thirds of the world's cities are coastal.

最嚴重的之一。

Over 1.5 billion people live in low-lying, flood-prone coastal areas.

那是因為世界上 三分之二的城市都近海。

What you see here is a map that shows sea level rise

超過 15 億人住在低窪 容易洪水泛濫的沿岸地區。

in relation to changes in temperature.

這張地圖顯示出海平面上升

Climate scientists predict that we're going to see

和氣溫改變之間的關係。

anywhere between three and 30 feet of sea level rise

氣候科學家預測，這個世紀，

this side of the century.

海平面就會上升

And it's not just low island nation-states that are going to suffer --

3~30 英呎。

Kiribati or the Maldives or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --

並不只有低地勢的 島嶼民族國家會受其害——

and they will suffer,

吉里巴斯共和國、馬爾地夫、 所羅門、斯里蘭卡——

but also massive cities like Dhaka,

它們的確會受其害，

like Hong Kong,

受害的還有大城市，像達卡、

like Shanghai.

像香港、

Cities of 10, 20, 30 million people or more

像上海。

are literally going to be wiped off the face of this earth.

100、200、300 萬或更多人口的城市

They're going to have to adapt, or they're going to die.

就會被從地球表面除去。

I want to take you also all the way over to the West,

它們得要適應，不然就死路一條。

because this isn't just a problem in Asia or Africa or Latin America,

我也想帶各位到西方，

this is a problem also in the West.

因為這並不只是亞洲、 非洲或南美的問題，

This is Miami.

這個問題在西方也會發生。

Many of you know Miami is one of the wealthiest cities

這是邁阿密。

in the United States;

許多人知道邁阿密 是美國最有錢的城市之一，

it's also one of the most flood-prone.

也是最常有洪水的城市之一。

That's been made painfully evident by natural disasters throughout 2017.

2017 年整年間痛苦經歷的 天然災害就是證據。

But Miami is built on porous limestone -- a swamp.

但邁阿密建立在 多孔石灰岩上——沼澤上。

There's no way any kind of flood barrier

不可能有任何一種洪水屏障

is going to keep the water from seeping in.

能夠防止水滲進來。

As we scroll back,

我們再拉回來，

and we look across the Caribbean and along the Gulf,

看看加勒比海和沿海地區，

we begin to realize

我們開始了解到，

that those cities that have suffered worst from natural crises --

被自然危機摧殘得最嚴重的城市——

Port-au-Prince, New Orleans, Houston --

太子港、紐奧良、休士頓——

as severe and as awful as those situations have been,

雖然那些情況非常嚴重且駭人，

they're a dress rehearsal for what's to come.

它們只是彩排將來會發生的事而已。

No city is an island.

沒有城市是孤島。

Every city is connected to its rural hinterland

每個城市都和它的鄉村腹地

in complex ways --

複雜地連結在一起。

often, in relation to the production of food.

通常，連結方式和食物生產有關。

I want to take you to the northern part of the Amazon, in Rondônia.

我想帶各位去看 亞馬遜北區的朗多尼亞州。

This is one of the world's largest terrestrial carbon sinks,

它是世界最大的地球碳阱之一，

processing millions of carbon every single year.

每年會處理上百萬的碳。

What you see here is a single road over a 30-year period.

這裡看到的是三十年間唯一的道路。

On either side you see land being cleared for pasture, for cattle,

兩側可以看到土地被清空 以用來放牧牛群，

but also for soy and sugar production.

也用來生產大豆和糖。

You're seeing deforestation on a massive scale.

你們看到的是大規模的森林砍伐。

The red area here implies a net loss of forest over the last 14 years.

紅色區域表示過去 十四年間森林的淨損失。

The blue, if you could see it -- there's not much --

如果看得到藍色，並不多，

implies there's been an incremental gain.

那表示森林有所增加。

Now, as grim and gloomy as the situation is -- and it is --

雖然情況的確無情又陰暗，

there is a little bit of hope.

還是有一線希望。

See, the Brazilian government,

巴西政府，

from the national to the state to the municipal level,

全國層級、州層級，到市層級，

has also introduced a whole range -- a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.

推行了一系列格狀的公園和保護區。

And while not perfect, and not always limiting encroachment,

雖不完美，未必總是能限制住侵蝕，

they have served to tamp back deforestation.

它們多少有助於遏制砍伐森林。

The same applies not just in Brazil but all across the Americas,

不只在巴西如此，還橫跨整個美洲，

into the United States, Canada and around the world.

到美國、加拿大，及全世界。

So let's talk about solutions.

所以，咱們來談談解決方案。

Despite climate denial at the highest levels,

雖然最高層否認全球暖化，

cities are taking action.

城市有在採取行動。

You know, when the US pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement,

當美國退出巴黎氣候協議，

hundreds of cities in the United States and thousands more around the world

美國數百個城市及世界數千個城市

doubled down on their climate commitments.

將它們的氣候承諾加碼了。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And when the White House cracked down on so-called "undocumented migrants"

當白宮取締在庇護城市中所謂的

in sanctuary cities,

「無證移民」，

hundreds of cities and counties and states sat up in defiance

數百個城市、郡、州都起來反抗，

and refused to enact that order.

拒絕執行該法令。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So cities are and can take action.

城市有，並且能夠採取行動。

But we're going to need to see a lot more of it,

但我們得要看到 更多城市這麼做才行，

especially in the global south.

特別是在南半球。

You see, parts of Africa and Latin America are urbanizing

非洲和南美的一些區域在工業化前

before they industrialize.

就已經都市化了。

They're growing at three times the global average

它們的人口成長

in terms their population.

比全球平均高了三倍。

And this is putting enormous strain on infrastructure and services.

這樣會讓基礎建設 及服務有很大的負擔。

Now, there is a golden opportunity.

現在有個黃金級的機會。

It's a small opportunity but a golden one: in the next 10 to 20 years,

這機會不大，但是黃金級的： 在接下來十到二十年，

to really start designing in principles of resilience into our cities.

真正開始將恢復力 設計到我們的城市中。

There's not one single way of doing this,

沒有單一方法可以做到這一點，

but there are a number of ways that are emerging.

但有許多方法正在興起。

And I've spoken with hundreds of urban planners,

我已經和數百位都市規劃者、

development specialists,

開發專家、

architects and civic activists,

建築師、民權運動人士談過。

and a number of recurring principles keep coming out.

在這些談話中， 不斷會重覆聽到一些原則。

I just want to pass on six.

在此我只想傳遞六項。