for pretty much all of my adult life.

有個問題我一直在傷腦筋， 也一直在寫相關書籍，

Why do some large-scale crises

我成年後的人生幾乎都投入在此。

jolt us awake and inspire us to change and evolve

為什麼有一些大規模的危機

while others might jolt us a bit,

會打醒我們 並鼓舞我們去改變和成長，

but then it's back to sleep?

但其他的則只稍微 讓我們震驚了一下，

Now, the kind of shocks I'm talking about are big --

然後一切就回復平靜了？

a cataclysmic market crash, rising fascism,

我在談的震驚事件，是大型的──

an industrial accident that poisons on a massive scale.

災難性的市場崩壞、 法西斯主義重新興起、

Now, events like this can act like a collective alarm bell.

造成大規模毒害的工業意外。

Suddenly, we see a threat, we get organized.

像這樣的事件， 可能會有集體警鈴的功用。

We discover strength and resolve that was previously unimaginable.

突然間，我們遇到威脅， 我們就會組織起來。

It's as if we're no longer walking, but leaping.

我們會發現先前 無法想像的力量和決心。

Except, our collective alarm seems to be busted.

彷彿我們不再用走的，而是用跳的。

Faced with a crisis, we often fall apart, regress

不過，我們的集體警鈴似乎壞掉了。

and that becomes a window for antidemocratic forces

面對危機時，我們通常 會四分五裂、會向後退，

to push societies backwards, to become more unequal and more unstable.

那會為反民主勢力打開一扇窗，

Ten years ago, I wrote about this backwards process

讓它們把社會向後推， 變得更不平等、更不穩定。

and I called it the "Shock Doctrine."

十年前，我寫了關於 這種倒退過程的書，

So what determines which road we navigate through crisis?

我把書名取為《震撼主義》。

Whether we grow up fast and find those strengths

我們會走哪條路來通過危機， 是由什麼決定的？

or whether we get knocked back.

不論我們是否快速成長 並找到那些力量，

And I'd say this is a pressing question these days.

或不論我們是否被打回來。

Because things are pretty shocking out there.

我會說這是近期一個很迫切的問題。

Record-breaking storms, drowning cities,

因為，外頭的狀況是挺震撼的。

record-breaking fires threatening to devour them,

破記錄的暴風、被淹沒的城市、

thousands of migrants disappearing beneath the waves.

破記錄的大火威脅要將城市吞噬，

And openly supremacist movements rising,

數以千計的移民者消失在大浪下。

in many of our countries there are torches in the streets.

公開的種族優越運動興起，

And now there's no shortage of people who are sounding the alarm.

許多國家都在發生， 甚至在街頭出現火炬。

But as a society, I don't think we can honestly say

一直都有人在響起警鈴。

that we're responding with anything like the urgency

但我們這個社會， 我認為我們無法老實說

that these overlapping crises demand from us.

我們的反應是帶著迫切性的，

And yet, we know from history

但這些部分重疊的危機 卻很需要我們的迫切反應。

that it is possible for crisis to catalyze a kind of evolutionary leap.

然而，我們從歷史得知，

And one of the most striking examples of this progressive power of crisis

危機有可能催化一種進化的躍進。

is the Great Crash of 1929.

若要說明危機的革新力量， 最突出的例子之一

There was the shock of the sudden market collapse

就是 1929 年的華爾街股災。

followed by all of the aftershocks,

市場突然崩盤帶來震撼，

the millions who lost everything thrown onto breadlines.

接著便是所有的餘震，

And this was taken by many as a message that the system itself was broken.

數百萬人失去一切， 被丟到等待救濟食物的隊伍中。

And many people listened and they leapt into action.

許多人把這件事當作是個訊息： 體制本身就已經損壞。

In the United States and elsewhere, governments began to weave a safety net

說多人聽進去了， 且他們跳出來採取行動。

so that the next time there was a crash

在美國和其他地方， 政府開始編織一張安全網，

there would be programs like social security to catch people.

這麼一來，下次再發生崩盤，

There were huge job-creating public investments

會有像社會保障之類的計畫 來接住摔落的人。

in housing, electrification and transit.

有大量能創造就業機會的公共投資，

And there was a wave of aggressive regulation

投入住房供給、電氣化，以及運輸。

to reign in the banks.

還有一波積極強硬的規制，

Now, these reforms were far from perfect.

在銀行中都可見到。

In the US, African American workers, immigrants and women

這些改革離完美還很遙遠。

were largely excluded.

在美國，非裔美國工人、 移民者以及女性

But the Depression period,

幾乎都被排除在外。

along with the transformation of allied nations and economies

但蕭條時期，

during the World War II effort,

加上在二次大戰時努力造成的

show us that it is possible for complex societies

結盟國家與經濟體的轉變，

to rapidly transform themselves in the face of a collective threat.

讓我們看見，複雜的社會是有可能

Now, when we tell this story of the 1929 Crash,

在面臨集體威脅時 快速地轉變它們自己。

that's usually the formula that it follows --

當我們在訴說 1929 年 股災的故事時，

that there was a shock and it induced a wake-up call

通常都會循著一條公式──

and that produced a leap to a safer place.

先有一個震撼事件發生， 它會導致一個警訊，

Now, if that's really what it took,

那就會產生一次躍進， 進到一個更安全的地方。

then why isn't it working anymore?

如果真的只要這樣就可以了，

Why do today's non-stop shocks --

為什麼它不再有用了？

why don't they spur us into action?

為什麼現今不停歇地出現震撼事件──

Why don't they produce leaps?

為什麼它們不會鞭策我們採取行動？

Especially when it comes to climate change.

為什麼它們不會產生躍進？

So I want to talk to you today

特別是氣候變遷這個議題。

about what I think is a much more complete recipe for deep transformation

所以，今天我想和各位談的，

catalyzed by shocking events.

是我認為更完整的訣竅， 由震撼事件來催化

And I'm going to focus on two key ingredients

深刻轉變的訣竅。

that usually get left out of the history books.

我會把焦點放在兩個主要的要素上，

One has to do with imagination, the other with organization.

這兩個要素通常 都會被史書給遺漏掉。

Because it's in the interplay between the two

第一個要素和想像有關， 另一個則和組織有關。

where revolutionary power lies.

因為革命性的力量就位在

So let's start with imagination.

這兩者的相互影響中。

The victories of the New Deal didn't happen just because suddenly

讓我們從想像開始。

everybody understood the brutalities of laissez-faire.

羅斯福新政之所以能成功， 並不是因為突然間

This was a time, let's remember, of tremendous ideological ferment,

所有人都了解了放任政策的殘酷。

when many different ideas about how to organize societies

回想一下，那是個 意識形態騷動很嚴重的時期，

did battle with one another in the public square.

許多關於如何組織社會的不同構想

A time when humanity dared to dream big

都在公開廣場上彼此對打。

about different kinds of futures,

那個時期，針對不同的未來，

many of them organized along radically egalitarian lines.

人類敢於大膽做夢，

Now, not all of these ideas were good

其中有許多本質上是以 平等主義的方式組織而成的。

but this was an era of explosive imagining.

這些構想並非全都是好的，

This meant that the movements demanding change

但這個時代的確是 想像力爆發的時代。

knew what they were against -- crushing poverty, widening inequality --

這意味著，訴求改變的那些運動

but just as important, they knew what they were for.

知道它們在對抗的是什麼── 壓倒性的貧窮、越來越廣的不公平──

They had their "no" and they had their "yes," too.

但同樣重要的是， 它們也知道目的是為了什麼。

They also had very different models of political organization

它們有它們的「不行」， 也有它們的「可以」。

than we do today.

至於它們的政治組織模型

For decades, social and labor movements

也和我們現今的非常不同。

had been building up their membership bases,

數十年來，社會和勞工運動

linking their causes together and increasing their strength.

一直在擴大它們的成員數，

Which meant that by the time the Crash happened,

將它們的理想連結在一起增加力量。

there was already a movement that was large and broad enough

這就表示，到了股災發生的時候，

to, for instance, stage strikes that didn't just shut down factories,

已經有一個夠大、夠廣的運動，

but shut down entire cities.

可以比如，籌劃罷工， 且規模大到不只是讓工廠停擺，

The big policy wins of the New Deal were actually offered as compromises.

還能讓整個城市都停擺。

Because the alternative seemed to be revolution.

羅斯福新政在政策上的大勝利， 其實是提供出來的妥協。

So, let's adjust that equation from earlier.

因為替代方案似乎就是革命了。

A shocking event plus utopian imagination

讓我們調整先前提出的公式。

plus movement muscle,

震撼事件＋烏托邦想像＋

that's how we get a real leap.

運動力量，

So how does our present moment measure up?

這樣我們就能得到真正的躍進。

We are living, once again, at a time of extraordinary political engagements.

我們目前的狀況符合這個標準嗎？

Politics is a mass obsession.

我們所處的時代也是個 政治參與度很驚人的時代。

Progressive movements are growing and resisting with tremendous courage.

大眾對政治著迷。

And yet, we know from history that "no" is not enough.

革新運動在成長， 帶著極大的勇氣在抵抗。

Now, there are some "yeses" out there that are emerging.

然而，我們從歷史知道， 「不行」是不夠的。

And they're actually getting a lot bolder quickly.

確實在外頭有一些「可以」正在浮現。

Where climate activists used to talk about changing light bulbs,

它們其實以很快的速度 在變得更無畏。

now we're pushing for 100 percent of our energy

以前氣候激進分子談的是換電燈泡，

to come from the sun, wind and waves,

現在我們奮力追求的是 要讓我們的能源

and to do it fast.

100% 來自太陽能、風力和海水，

Movements catalyzed by police violence against black bodies

且要盡快實現。

are calling for an end to militarized police, mass incarceration

警察對黑人的暴力行為 所催化的時刻

and even for reparations for slavery.

在號召要終止警察的 軍事化、大規模監禁，

Students are not just opposing tuition increases,

甚至呼籲對奴隸制進行賠償。

but from Chile to Canada to the UK,

學生不只是反對學費上漲，

they are calling for free tuition and debt cancellation.

從智利到加拿大，再到英國，

And yet, this still doesn't add up

他們還訴求免學費和免除還款。

to the kind of holistic and universalist vision

然而，這仍然不符合

of a different world than our predecessors had.

我們先人有的那種遠景，

So why is that?

希望有個不同世界的整體普救遠景。

Well, very often we think about political change

為什麼會這樣？

in defined compartments these days.

現在，通常當我們思考政治改變時，

Environment in one box, inequality in another,

是用定義好的區隔分類來思考的。

racial and gender justice in a couple of other boxes,

一類是環境，另一類是不公平，

education over here, health over there.

種族與性別正義則是屬於其他幾類，

And within each compartment,

教育在這裡，健康在那裡。

there are thousands upon thousands of different groups and NGOs,

在每一個分類當中，

each competing with one another for credit, name recognition

有成千上萬個不同的 團體和非政府組織，

and of course, resources.

彼此競爭，爭功勞、知名度，

In other words, we act a lot like corporate brands.

當然也爭資源。

Now, this is often referred to as the problem of silos.

換言之，我們的行為 和企業品牌很像。

Now, silos are understandable.

通常，這被稱為是穀倉問題。 （註：過度分工成獨立小團體）

They carve up our complex world into manageable chunks.

穀倉是可以理解的。

They help us feel less overwhelmed.

穀倉把我們的複雜世界 劃分成區塊，比較能處理得來。

But in the process, they also train our brains to tune out

穀倉讓我們不會覺得那麼無法招架。

when somebody else's issue comes up

但在過程中，穀倉同時 也訓練我們的大腦，

and when somebody else's issue needs our help and support.

在聽到其他人的問題時、

And they also keep us from seeing glaring connections between our issues.

聽到他們的問題需要我們的 協助和支援時，要充耳不聞。

So for instance, the people fighting poverty and inequality

穀倉也讓我們無法看見 我們的問題之間有著明顯的連結。

rarely talk about climate change.

比如，對抗貧窮和不公平的人，

Even though we see time and again

他們很少會談氣候變遷。

that it's the poorest of people

即使我們一而再、再而三地看到，

who are the most vulnerable to extreme weather.

在極端氣候威脅下，

The climate change people rarely talk about war and occupation.

最容易受傷的人是最貧窮的人。

Even though we know that the thirst for fossil fuels

氣候變遷的人很少會談戰爭和職業。

has been a major driver of conflict.

即使我們知道對於化石燃料的渴望

The environmental movement has gotten better at pointing out

一直都是主要的戰爭衝突起因。

that the nations that are getting hit hardest by climate change

環境運動也開始會點出

are populated overwhelmingly by black and brown people.

受到氣候變遷影響最大的國家

But when black lives are treated as disposable

是擁有大量黑色和棕色人種的國家。

in prisons, in schools and on the streets,

但當黑人的生命在監獄、學校

these connections are too rarely made.

和街頭可被捨棄，

The walls between our silos

這些幾乎不被連結起來。

also means that our solutions, when they emerge,

穀倉之間有牆壁隔開，

are also disconnected from each other.

也就表示當解決方案出現時，

So progressives now have this long list of demands that I was mentioning earlier,

也彼此互不連結。

those "yeses."

所以，進步分子現在有張很長的 需求清單，我剛剛已經提過，

But what we're still missing

就是那些「可以」。

is that coherent picture of the world we're fighting for.

但對於我們在努力爭取的世界，

What it looks like, what it feels like, and most of all, what its core values are.

我們仍然缺少一致相連的整體全景。

And that really matters.

它看起來、感覺起來是什麼樣子？ 更重要的，它的核心價值是什麼？

Because when large-scale crises hit us

那真的很要緊。

and we are confronted with the need to leap somewhere safer,

因為當我們遇到大規模危機，

there isn't any agreement on what that place is.

需要跳躍到更安全的地方時，

And leaping without a destination

對於那個地方是哪裡， 卻無法取得一致意見。

looks a lot like jumping up and down.

而沒有目的就跳躍，

(Laughter)

看起來很像就只是上下跳而已。

Fortunately, there are all kinds of conversations and experiments going on

（笑聲）

to try to overcome these divisions that are holding us back.

幸運的是，目前還是有各種 正在進行中的對話和實驗，

And I want to finish by talking about one of them.

在試圖克服這些 讓我們無法向前行的分隔。

A couple of years ago, a group of us in Canada

我想談其中一種， 當作這場演說的結尾。

decided that we were hitting the limits

幾年前，在加拿大，我們有一群人

of what we could accomplish in our various silos.

認定我們在各式各樣的穀倉中，

So we locked ourselves in a room for two days,

成就都已經達到了能達到的極限。

and we tried to figure out what bound us together.

所以我們把自己 鎖在一間房間中兩天，

In that room were people who rarely get face to face.

我們試圖想出有什麼辦法 可以讓我們團結在一起。

There were indigenous elders with hipsters working on transit.

在那間房間中的人， 是很少面對面的人。

There was the head of Greenpeace

有原住民長老和消息靈通的人 一起努力解決運輸問題。

with a union leader representing oil workers and loggers.

有綠色和平的領導人

There were faith leaders and feminist icons and many more.

和石油工人與伐木工人的工會代表。

And we gave ourselves a pretty ambitious assignment:

有宗教領袖及女性主義 代表人物，及許多其他的。

agreeing on a short statement describing the world after we win.

我們給自己訂了一個 很有野心的任務：

The world after we've already made the transition to a clean economy

取得一致的意見，用一段簡短陳述 來描述我們獲勝之後的世界。

and a much fairer society.

在我們已經轉換到乾淨經濟

In other words,

並讓社會更公平之後的世界。

instead of trying to scare people about what will happen if we don't act,

也就是說，

we decided to try to inspire them with what could happen if we did act.

不再用「若我們不採取行動會怎樣」 來恐嚇人們了，

Sensible people are always telling us

我們決定要試著用 「若我們採取行動會怎樣」來鼓舞他們。

that change needs to come in small increments.

理性的人總是會告訴我們，

That politics is the art of the possible

改變要能成功，必須要一點一點改。

and that we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

政治是可能性的藝術，

Well, we rejected all of that.

我們不能讓「完美」成為「好」的敵人。

We wrote a manifesto, and we called it "The Leap."

我們摒棄那一切。

I have to tell you that agreeing on our common "yes"

我們寫了一份宣言， 我們叫它「躍進」。

across such diversity of experiences

我得告訴各位，要對於我們 共同的「可以」取得共識，

and against a backdrop of a lot of painful history

在大家的經驗都很不一樣的情況下，

was not easy work.

且都有許多痛苦往事的背景之下，

But it was also pretty thrilling.

真的很不容易。

Because as soon as we gave ourselves permission to dream,

但它也非常令人興奮。

those threads connecting much of our work became self-evident.

因為一旦我們允許我們自己去夢想，

We realized, for instance,

將我們的努力結合起來的 連結線就會不證自明。

that the bottomless quest for profits

比如，我們知道

that is forcing so many people to work more than 50 hours a week,

對於利益的無窮盡追求

without security,

迫使許多人必須要 每週工作超過五十小時，

and that is fueling this epidemic of despair

沒有保障，

is the same quest for bottomless profits and endless growth

助長絕望的傳播。

that is at the heart of our ecological crisis

而我們的生態危機的核心，

and is destabilizing our planet.

正是這種對於利益 與成長的無窮盡追求，

It also became clear what we need to do.

它是地球動盪的元兇。

We need to create a culture of care-taking.

我們需要做什麼？答案變得很清楚。

In which no one and nowhere is thrown away.

我們需要創造一種照顧的文化。

In which the inherent value of all people and every ecosystem is foundational.

在這種文化中，沒有任何人、 任何地方會被拋棄。

So we came up with this people's platform,

這種文化中的基礎，是所有人 及每個生態系統的固有價值。

and don't worry, I'm not going to read the whole thing to you out loud --

所以我們提出了 這個屬於人民的平台，

if you're interested, you can read it at theleap.org.

別擔心，我不會把全部內容 都大聲讀給各位聽──

But I will give you a taste of what we came up with.

如果你有興趣，可以到 theleap.org 去看全文。

So we call for that 100 percent renewable economy in a hurry,

但我會讓各位淺嚐一下， 了解我們提出的是什麼。

but we went further.

我們訴求 100% 的可再生經濟， 且要盡快達成，

Calls for new kinds of trade deals,

我們還再進了一步。

a robust debate on a guaranteed annual income,

我們也訴求要有新的貿易協定、

full rights for immigrant workers,

針對年收入保障做健全的辯論、

getting corporate money out of politics,

移民工人要有所有的權利、

free universal day care, electoral reform and more.

不要再讓企業的錢進入政治、