as the year of the cup,

在肯亞，人稱 1984 年

or the goro goro.

為杯子之年，

The goro goro is a cup used to measure

或稱咕嚕咕嚕。

two kilograms of maize flower on the market,

咕嚕咕嚕是一種量杯，

and the maize flower is used to make ugali,

在市場上拿來秤兩公斤的玉米粒，

a polenta-like cake that is eaten together with vegetables.

而玉米粒則拿來煮烏伽黎，

Both the maize and the vegetables are grown

一種很像義式玉米粥的餅， 與蔬菜同吃。

on most Kenyan farms,

玉米及蔬菜兩者都種在

which means that most families can feed themselves

大部分的肯亞農場上，

from their own farm.

也就是說大部分的家庭

One goro goro can feed three meals

都能自給自足。

for an average family,

一杯咕嚕咕嚕能做出三頓餐點

and in 1984, the whole harvest

給一個普通人家吃，

could fit in one goro goro.

而 1984 年，一年的總收穫

It was and still is one of the worst droughts

只能裝滿一杯咕嚕咕嚕。

in living memory.

這到現在仍是人們記憶中 最慘的旱災。

Now today, I insure farmers against droughts

今天，我提供保險給農民對抗

like those in the year of the cup,

像杯子之年的旱災。

or to be more specific, I insure the rains.

或更精確的說，我確保降雨。

I come from a family of missionaries

我來自一個傳教士家族，

who built hospitals in Indonesia,

先人曾在印尼蓋醫院，

and my father built a psychiatric hospital

我的父親則在坦尚尼亞 蓋了間精神病醫院。

in Tanzania.

這是我，五歲，在那間醫院前。

This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.

我從不認為他們會想到我長大後

I don't think they thought I'd grow up

要賣保險。（笑聲）

to sell insurance. (Laughter)

所以讓我告訴你們這怎麼發生的。

So let me tell you how that happened.

2008 年，我在

In 2008, I was working

盧安達的農業部工作，

for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,

我的頂頭上司升了官

and my boss had just been promoted

成為部長。

to become the minister.

她發起一項雄心勃勃的計畫

She launched an ambitious plan

要在她的國家開始綠色革命，

to start a green revolution in her country,

在我們瞭解狀況之前， 我們就從國外先進口

and before we knew it, we were importing

很多噸的肥料及種子，

tons of fertilizer and seed

並告訴農民如何施肥及種植。

and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer

幾個星期後，

and plant.

國際貨幣基金組織來拜訪我們，

A couple of weeks later,

並問我的部長，

the International Monetary Fund visited us,

「部長，這是好事，你要幫農民

and asked my minister,

達成糧食安全， 但是如果不下雨怎麼辦？」

"Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers

我的部長很自負的回答

reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"

也有點挑戰的意味，

My minister answered proudly

「我要祈禱降雨。」

and somewhat defiantly,

這回答終結了討論。

"I am going to pray for rain."

在回到部裡的車上，

That ended the discussion.

她轉頭向我說

On the way back to the ministry in the car,

「蘿絲，妳一向都對財務很有興趣。

she turned around to me and said,

去替我們找找保險。」

"Rose, you've always been interested in finance.

六年過了，

Go find us some insurance."

去年我很幸運

It's been six years since,

能成為保險團隊的一員，

and last year I was fortunate enough

替在肯亞及盧安達 超過十八萬五千民農夫

to be part of a team that insured

投保旱災險。

over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda

他們擁有平均約半畝的地，

against drought.

保費平均在二歐元左右。

They owned an average of half an acre

這是微型保險。

and paid on average two Euros in premium.

那麼，傳統保險業不會保

It's microinsurance.

只有二、三歐元保費的保險，

Now, traditional insurance doesn't work

因為傳統的保險要靠查勘農場。

with two to three Euros of premium,

在德國這裡，一位農夫可能會在

because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.

農季開始、期中、

A farmer here in Germany would be visited

及農季結束時被查勘， 如果有損失，

for the start of the season, halfway through,

還要再來估算賠償金。

and at the end, and again if there was a loss,

對一個中非的小農，

to estimate the damages.

這些查勘怎麼算

For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,

都不合算。

the maths of doing those visits

所以我們要靠科技 及數據代替現場查勘。

simply don't add up.

這個衛星測量

So instead, we rely on technology and data.

一個地方有沒有雲，

This satellite measures

因為你想一下：

whether there were clouds or not,

如果有雲，大概就會降雨，

because think about it:

但是如果沒有雲，

If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,

那一點下雨的機會都沒有。

but if there are no clouds,

這些影像顯示

then it's actually impossible for it to rain.

這個季節肯亞雨季來臨。

These images show the onset of the rains

你看大概在三月六日

this season in Kenya.

雲飄進來然後消失，

You see that around March 6,

然後大約在三月十一日

the clouds move in and then disappear,

雲真的進來了。

and then around the March 11,

那個，及這些雲

the clouds really move in.

是本年雨季的開始。

That, and those clouds,

這個衛星涵蓋整個非洲，

were the onset of the rains this year.

並可回溯早至 1984 年，

This satellite covers the whole of Africa

而這很重要，因為如果你知道

and goes back as far as 1984,

一個地方在過去 30 年

and that's important, because if you know

發生過多少次旱災，

how many times a place has had a drought

你就可以做個還滿準的估算

in the last 30 years,

看看未來乾旱的機會有多大。

you can make a pretty good estimate

也就是說你可以標價

what the chances are of drought in the future,

在乾旱風險上。

and that means that you can put a price tag

只靠數據是不夠的。

on the risk of drought.

我們還設計了農事演算法，

The data alone isn't enough.

告訴我們一種作物需要 多少降雨及何時降雨。

We devise agronomic algorithms

舉個例，在玉米栽植期

which tell us how much rainfall a crop needs and when.

你需要兩天的雨

For example, for maize at planting,

給農夫下種用，

you need to have two days of rain

然後要每兩個星期下一次雨

for farmers to plant,

讓作物好好發芽。

and then it needs to rain once every two weeks

之後，你要每三星期下一次雨

for the crop to properly germinate.

讓作物長葉子，

After that, you need rain every three weeks

在開花期，你需要更頻繁的降雨，

for the crop to form its leaves,

大概每十天一次讓作物結穗。

whereas at flowering, you need it to rain more frequently,

在生長期尾聲，

about once every 10 days for the crop to form its cob.

你其實不想要下雨

At the end of the season,

因為雨會破壞作物收成。

you actually don't want it to rain,

要做到這麼廣的設計的確很難

because rains then can damage the crop.

但結果證明賣保險才是真的挑戰。

Devising such a cover is difficult,

我們給自己制定還算合理的目標，

but it turned out the real challenge

希望在第一季後 有約 500 位農夫投保。

was selling insurance.

在幾個月的強力行銷後，

We set ourselves a modest target

我們簽下了總計

of 500 farmers insured after our first season.

185 位農夫。

After a couple of months' intense marketing,

我好失望，非常不解。

we had signed up the grand total

每個人都說農夫

of 185 farmers.

想要買保險，

I was disappointed and confounded.

但是我們的主要客戶就是不買。

Everybody kept telling me that farmers

他們在觀望會發生什麼事，

wanted insurance,

不信任保險公司，

but our prime customers simply weren't buying.

或是想，「我都撐了這麼多年了，

They were waiting to see what would happen,

為什麼現在還要我買保險？」

didn't trust insurance companies,

在座很多人都知道微型信貸，

or thought, "I've managed for so many years.

就是提供窮人一小筆貸款的方法，

Why would I buy insurance now?"

由穆罕默德·尤納斯首創，

Now many of you know microcredit,

他得了諾貝爾和平獎，

the method of providing small loans to poor people

因他在孟加拉鄉村銀行的作為。

pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,

事實證明，賣微型信貸

who won the Nobel Peace Prize

與賣一般保險截然不同。

for his work with the Grameen Bank.

在信貸方面， 農夫必須得到銀行的信任，

Turns out, selling microcredit

如果成功了，銀行就會墊款給他。

isn't the same as selling insurance.

那是很吸引人的提議。

For credit, a farmer needs to earn the trust of a bank,

在保險方面，

and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.

農夫得信任保險公司，

That's an attractive proposition.

還得預付保險公司錢。

For insurance, the farmer needs to trust

那是非常不同的價值主張。

the insurance company, and needs

所以保險的漲勢很慢

to advance the insurance company money.

到目前為止只有 4.4% 的非洲人

It's a very different value proposition.

在 2012 年投保，

And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,

而且還有半數是來自同一個國家，

with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans

南非。

taking up insurance in 2012,

我們試了幾年

and half of that number is in one country,

要直接賣保險給農夫，

South Africa.

行銷成本很高，

We tried for some years

成功卻極為有限。

selling insurance directly to farmers,

然後我們才知道已經有很多組織

with very high marketing cost

與農夫合作：

and very limited success.

種苗公司、微型金融機構、

Then we realized that there were many organizations

手機公司、

working with farmers:

政府單位。

seed companies, microfinance institutions,

他們都提供貸款給農民，

mobile phone companies,

而且常常就在他們完成貸款之前，

government agencies.

農民會說，

They were all providing loans to farmers,

「可是如果不下雨怎麼辦？

and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,

這樣我要怎麼還貸款？」

the farmer would say,

這種組織很多

"But what if it doesn't rain?

都會自行吸收風險，

How do you expect me to repay my loan?"

只希望那一年

Many of these organizations

最壞的情況不會發生。

were taking on the risk themselves,

但是，大部分的組織

simply hoping that that year,

都會限制他們在農業部門的成長。

the worst wouldn't happen.

他們無法承擔這種風險。

Most of the organizations, however,

這些組織就成了我們的客戶，

were limiting their growth in agriculture.

而且當你把信貸與保險結合，

They couldn't take on this kind of risk.

有趣的事就發生了。

These organizations became our customers,

讓我再說一個故事。

and when combining credit and insurance,

2012 年二月初，在肯亞西部

interesting things can happen.

雨季開始了，而且很早就開始。

Let me tell you one more story.

當雨季早早開始，農夫都很受鼓舞，

At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,

因為這通常意味著這季會有好收成。

the rains started, and they started early,

所以他們開始借貸栽種。

and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,

接下來三星期，

because it usually means that the season is going to be good.

連一滴雨都沒有，

So they took out loans and planted.

原本發芽得很好的作物

For the next three weeks,

枯萎死亡。

there wasn't a single drop of rain,

我們擔保一家微型金融機構的貸款，

and the crops that had germinated so well

而他們已經提供貸款

shriveled and died.

給那個地區大約六千民農夫，

We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution

我們打電話給他們，說：

that had provided those loans

「聽好，我們瞭解旱情。

to about 6,000 farmers in that area,

我們會幫你一把。

and we called them up and said,

我們會在季末時給你二十萬歐元。」

"Look, we know about the drought.

他們說：「哇，那很棒，

We've got you.

但是那太遲了。

We'll give you 200,000 Euros at the end of the season."

你能不能現在就把錢給我們？

They said, "Wow, that's great,

這樣這些農夫還能及時補植，

but that'll be late.

這季還有收穫。」

Could you give us the money now?

所以我們說服我們的保險事業夥伴，

Then these farmers can still replant

之後那個四月，這些農夫補植。

and can get a harvest this season."

我們把補植的想法 告訴一家種苗公司，

So we convinced our insurance partners,

並說服他們把保險的費用

and later that April, these farmers replanted.

加在每一袋種子上，

We took the idea of replanting to a seed company

在每一袋種子裡， 我們都包一張小卡，

and convinced them to price the cost of insurance

上面有一個數字，

into every bag of seed,

當農夫打開那張卡片，

and in every bag, we packed a card

他們就把上面的數字傳給我們，

that had a number on it,

那個數字可以實際幫助我們

and when the farmers would open the card,

確定那位農夫的地點，

they'd text in that number,

並把他們寫進一個衛星像元裡。

and that number would actually help us

衛星就可以測量

to locate the farmer

未來三星期的降雨。

and allocate them to a satellite pixel.

如果沒下雨

A satellite would then measure the rainfall

我們就換新的種子給他們。

for the next three weeks,

第一批—

and if it didn't rain,

（掌聲）等等，我還沒講完！

we'd replace their seed.

第一批這個補植保證的受益人，

One of the first —

其中有一位叫波思科·米尼。

(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!

之後那年八月我們去查訪他的農田，

One of the first beneficiaries of this replanting guarantee

我真的很想讓你們看看他臉上

was Bosco Mwinyi.

在展示他的收穫給我們看時的笑容。

We visited his farm later that August,

因為那溫暖了我的心，

and I wish I could show you the smile on his face

而且讓我瞭解為什麼賣保險

when he showed us his harvest,

是件好事。

because it warmed my heart

但你知道，他堅持

and it made me realize why selling insurance

要我們把他所有的收成 都照在一張相片裡，

can be a good thing.

所以我們得把鏡頭拉很遠。

But you know, he insisted

保險確保了他那季的收成，

that we get his whole harvest in the picture,

而我相信今天，

so we had to zoom out a lot.

我們擁有一切的方法， 能賦予非洲農民

Insurance secured his harvest that season,

掌握他們自己命運的能力。

and I believe that today,

不再有杯子之年。

we have all the tools to enable African farmers

相反的，我很期待，至少一點點

to take control of their own destiny.

保險之年，

No more years of the cup.

或大豐收之年。

Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,

謝謝。

the year of the insurance,

（掌聲）

or the year of the great harvest.

Thank you.

(Applause)