字幕列表 影片播放
So if I was to ask you
譯者: William Choi 審譯者: Julia Xu
what the connection between
若果我問你們
a bottle of Tide detergent and sweat was,
一瓶汰漬洗衣精和汗水之間
you'd probably think that's the easiest question
有什麼的聯繫
that you're going to be asked in Edinburgh all week.
你也許會認為這是本週愛丁堡大會上
But if I was to say that they're both examples
最簡單的一條問題
of alternative or new forms of currency
但是如果我說,它們是
in a hyperconnected, data-driven global economy,
這個高度連接、數據驅動的全球經濟中的
you'd probably think I was a little bit bonkers.
貨幣替代品或新型貨幣例子
But trust me, I work in advertising.
也許你會認為我瘋了
(Laughter)
但相信我,我從事廣告行業的
And I am going to tell you the answer,
(笑聲)
but obviously after this short break.
我將告訴你們答案
So a more challenging question is one
但顯然要再過一會
that I was asked, actually, by one of our writers
有一個更為棘手問題是
a couple of weeks ago, and I didn't know the answer:
幾週前,我們的一個廣告撰稿人問我
What's the world's best performing currency?
我當時並不知道答案
It's actually Bitcoin.
他問世界上哪種貨幣的表現最好?
Now, for those of you who may not be familiar,
其实就是比特幣 (Bitcoin)
Bitcoin is a crypto-currency, a virtual currency, synthetic currency.
也許你們當中有些人不熟悉它
It was founded in 2008 by this anonymous programmer
比特幣是一種加密的、虛擬的、人工合成的貨幣
using a pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.
它誕生於 2008 年, 由一位匿名程式員
No one knows who or what he is.
假名為中本聰所創造的
He's almost like the Banksy of the Internet.
沒人知道他是誰
And I'm probably not going to do it proper service here,
他像網際網路界的班克斯 (Banksy)
but my interpretation of how it works is that
也許我還不能解釋清楚
Bitcoins are released through this process of mining.
但我的理解是比特幣是
So there's a network of computers that are challenged
通過一種挖礦程序而發行的
to solve a very complex mathematical problem
有那麼的一組電腦網絡
and the person that manages to solve it first gets the Bitcoins.
要解決一個非常複雜的數學問題
And the Bitcoins are released,
而第一位解答了問題的人就拿到比特幣
they're put into a public ledger called the Blockchain,
當比特幣發行後
and then they float, so they become a currency,
就被放到名叫「區塊鏈」分類帳
and completely decentralized, that's the sort of
然後價格會波動,他們就成為了一種貨幣
scary thing about this, which is why it's so popular.
它是完全分散管理的,這是爲什麽
So it's not run by the authorities or the state.
比特幣非常可怕,卻也如此受歡迎的原因
It's actually managed by the network.
沒有國家機構或中央銀行管理它
And the reason that it's proved very successful
它其實是由網路進行管理
is it's private, it's anonymous, it's fast, and it's cheap.
它之所以會如此成功就是因為它
And you do get to the point where there's some wild fluctuations with Bitcoin.
是私有、匿名、交易快速並且價格便宜
So in one level it went from something like 13 dollars
當然有時候比特幣也會大幅波動
to 266, literally in the space of four months,
又一次它在四個月內兌美元
and then crashed and lost half of its value in six hours.
由 1 比特幣兌 13 美元升至 266 美元
And it's currently around that kind of
然後六小時內又跌去一半
110 dollar mark in value.
現今比特幣兌美元的價格
But what it does show is that it's sort of gaining ground,
徘徊在 110 美元附近
it's gaining respectability.
但比特幣確實開始盛行
You get services, like Reddit and Wordpress
逐漸獲得市場地位
are actually accepting Bitcoin as a payment currency now.
某些服務商如 Reddit 和 Wordpress 部落格
And that's showing you that people
現已接受比特幣作為支付貨幣了
are actually placing trust in technology,
這表明了
and it's started to trump and disrupt
大眾實際上開始信賴科技
and interrogate traditional institutions
而比特幣則開始對抗、擾亂
and how we think about currencies and money.
和詰問傳統機構
And that's not surprising, if you think about
以及我們對貨幣和金錢的看法
the basket case that is the E.U.
這並不令人意外
I think there was a Gallup survey out recently
只要想想歐盟那個爛攤子
that said something like, in America,
蓋洛普 (Gallup) 最近做了一項調查
trust in banks is at an all-time low, it's something like 21 percent.
顯示美國人對銀行的信任程度 史無前例得低
And you can see here some photographs from London
只有 21% 的大眾信任銀行
where Barclays sponsored the city bike scheme,
再看看這些來自倫敦的照片
and some activists have done some nice piece
這是柏克萊贊助的公共自行車計劃
of guerrilla marketing here and doctored the slogans.
一些激進分子更改了活動標語
"Sub-prime pedaling." "Barclays takes you for a ride."
這是很棒的游擊式營銷
These are the more polite ones I could share with you today.
「次級 (Sub-prime) 腳踏」「巴克萊載你一程」
But you get the gist, so people have really started
今天拿來跟你們分享的 算是較為客氣的了
to sort of lose faith in institutions.
但其意思已夠清楚了
There's a P.R. company called Edelman,
大眾對金融機構已失去信心
they do this very interesting survey every year
有一間名為愛德曼 (Edelman) 的公關公司
precisely around trust and what people are thinking.
每年都會圍繞信任和大眾的想法
And this is a global survey, so these numbers are global.
做一個很有趣的調查
And what's interesting is that you can see that
這是一項全球的調查, 所以資料也反映著全球的情況
hierarchy is having a bit of a wobble,
而有趣的是你可以看到
and it's all about heterarchical now,
統治集團的地位開始變得不穩定
so people trust people like themselves more
問題都集中在統治集團上
than they trust corporations and governments.
也就是大眾更相信和他們一樣的個體
And if you look at these figures for the more developed markets
而不信任企業和政府
like U.K., Germany, and so on, they're actually much lower.
如果你看看發達國家的數字
And I find that sort of scary.
如英國、德國等大眾的信任度就更低了
People are actually trusting businesspeople
我認為這是個可怕的現象
more than they're trusting governments and leaders.
大眾更相信商人
So what's starting to happen, if you think about money,
而非政府和社會領袖
if you sort of boil money down to an essence,
如果你思考一下, 貨幣將要如何變化
it is literally just an expression of value, an agreed value.
如果你要追究貨幣的本質
So what's happening now, in the digital age,
它其實就是一種價值的表現
is that we can quantify value in lots of different ways
在現今的電子數位時代
and do it more easily,
我們可以用不同方式去量化價值
and sometimes the way that we quantify those values,
而且更為簡便
it makes it much easier
有時候我們量化價值所使用的方式
to create new forms and valid forms of currency.
使得創造出一種
In that context, you can see that networks like Bitcoin
新型的、強大的貨幣形式更為便捷
suddenly start to make a bit more sense.
這樣看來,你就會突然明白比特幣
So if you think we're starting to question
存在的合理性了
and disrupt and interrogate what money means,
如果你認為我們開始質疑
what our relationship with it is, what defines money,
擾亂、詰問貨幣的意義
then the ultimate extension of that is,
以及它與我們的關係、金錢的定義是什麼
is there a reason for the government to be in charge
那最終延伸出來的問題就是
of money anymore?
政府是否還有理由
So obviously I'm looking at this through a marketing prism,
負責管理貨幣?
so from a brand perspective,
顯然我是用市場營銷的視角看這問題
brands literally stand or fall on their reputations.
從品牌角度看
And if you think about it, reputation has now become a currency.
品牌的成敗直接取決於它的聲譽
You know, reputations are built on trust,
如果你想一想,現在聲譽 也變成了一種貨幣
consistency, transparency.
你知道,聲譽是基於信任
So if you've actually decided that you trust a brand,
一致性,透明度
you want a relationship, you want to engage with the brand,
如果你決定去信任某一品牌
you're already kind of participating in lots of new forms
就會想要與其建立長久關係
of currency.
那麼你其實已經
So you think about loyalty.
使用了很多貨幣的新形式了
Loyalty essentially is a micro-economy.
比如說忠誠
You think about rewards schemes, air miles.
忠誠事實上就是一種微觀經濟
The Economist said a few years ago that
比如獎勵方案、里程兌換等
there are actually more unredeemed air miles in the world
幾年前《經濟學人》曾報導
than there are dollar bills in circulation.
事實上全世界沒有兌換的里程數
You know, when you are standing in line in Starbucks,
比市面流通的美鈔還要多
30 percent of transactions in Starbucks on any one day
當你在星巴克排隊時
are actually being made with Starbucks Star points.
在任何一天星巴克有三成交易
So that's a sort of Starbucks currency
是通過隨行卡進行的
staying within its ecosystem.
那就是星巴克的循環系統裡
And what I find interesting is that Amazon
自帶的一種貨幣形式
has recently launched Amazon coins.
有趣的是我注意到亞馬遜
So admittedly it's a currency at the moment that's purely for the Kindle.
最近推出亞馬遜幣
So you can buy apps and make purchases within those apps,
無可否認這是一種只用於 Kindle 的貨幣
but you think about Amazon,
你可以用它購買應用程式或 在應用程式中購買其他東西
you look at the trust barometer that I showed you
但是你想一想亞馬遜這例子
where people are starting to trust businesses,
看看我向你們展示的信任氣壓計
especially businesses that they believe in and trust
大眾開始信任企業
more than governments.
特別是那些企業他們認為
So suddenly, you start thinking,
較政府更為可信
well Amazon potentially could push this.
突然間你會意識到
It could become a natural extension,
亞馬遜其實可以推廣這種貨幣
that as well as buying stuff --
它可以是一種自然的延伸
take it out of the Kindle -- you could buy books, music,
或者用它來買東西
real-life products, appliances and goods and so on.
不再限於在 Kindle 上使用,你可以 購買書本、音樂、
And suddenly you're getting Amazon, as a brand,
現實生活中的產品、電器、百貨等
is going head to head with the Federal Reserve
突然間亞馬遜作為一個品牌
in terms of how you want to spend your money,
將和美國聯儲局正面交鋒
what money is, what constitutes money.
關於你想怎樣花錢
And I'll get you back to Tide, the detergent now,
什麼是貨幣、貨幣的組成等
as I promised.
現在讓我們回到汰漬洗衣精的問題
This is a fantastic article I came across in New York Magazine,
正如我之前承諾的
where it was saying that drug users across America
我在《紐約雜誌》上讀到一篇很棒的文章
are actually purchasing drugs
文章指出全美各地的吸毒者
with bottles of Tide detergent.
在用汰漬洗衣精的瓶子
So they're going into convenience stores,
去購買毒品
stealing Tide,
他們走到便利店
and a $20 bottle of Tide
偷取汰漬洗衣精
is equal to 10 dollars of crack cocaine or weed.
一瓶二十美元的汰漬洗衣精
And what they're saying, so some criminologists
等同 10 美元的可卡因或大麻
have looked at this and they're saying, well, okay,
背後的原因,一些犯罪學家
Tide as a product sells at a premium.
研究后得出的結論是
It's 50 percent above the category average.
汰漬洗衣精售價很高
It's infused with a very complex cocktail of chemicals,
比其他同類產品平均貴五成
so it smells very luxurious and very distinctive,
它的化學成分非常複雜
and, being a Procter and Gamble brand,
味道十分高檔而且與眾不同
it's been supported by a lot of mass media advertising.
作為寶僑 (P&G) 的品牌
So what they're saying is that drug users are consumers too,
它的大眾傳媒廣告曝光率非常高
so they have this in their neural pathways.
意思是說吸毒的人也是消費者
When they spot Tide, there's a shortcut.
他們腦子里也有這種意識
They say, that is trust. I trust that. That's quality.
他們把汰漬看做指一條捷徑
So it becomes this unit of currency,
他們說這就是信任,我相信它, 這是品質保證
which the New York Magazine described
所以它成為了一種貨幣單位
as a very oddly loyal crime wave, brand-loyal crime wave,
《紐約雜誌》稱之為
and criminals are actually calling Tide "liquid gold."
一種古怪的忠誠犯罪潮, 品牌忠誠度的犯罪潮
Now, what I thought was funny was the reaction
事實上犯罪分子稱汰漬為「液體黃金」
from the P&G spokesperson.
而我認為寶僑發言人
They said, obviously tried to dissociate themselves from drugs,
對此作出的回應很有趣
but said, "It reminds me of one thing
寶僑顯然要和毒品撇清關係
and that's the value of the brand has stayed consistent." (Laughter)
但表示 :「這提醒我一樣事情
Which backs up my point and shows he didn't even
就是汰漬的品牌價值很一致(笑聲)
break a sweat when he said that.
這證明了我的觀點,
So that brings me back to the connection with sweat.
也看得出發言人說話時毫無擔憂
In Mexico, Nike has run a campaign recently
這把我帶回到和汗水的聯繫
called, literally, Bid Your Sweat.
耐吉 (Nike) 最近在墨西哥進行了 一個宣傳活動
So you think about,
名為「用你的汗水出價」
these Nike shoes have got sensors in them,
你試想一想
or you're using a Nike FuelBand
有些耐吉鞋裡裝有感應器
that basically tracks your movement, your energy,
或者你戴了耐吉的運動腕帶
your calorie consumption.
它就能檢測你的移動
And what's happening here, this is where you've actually
你的能量和卡路里的消耗
elected to join that Nike community. You've bought into it.
實際上你被帶入了耐吉的社區
They're not advertising loud messages at you,
你加入了他們
and that's where advertising has started to shift now
他們沒有向你大肆宣傳
is into things like services, tools and applications.
而現在廣告也開始轉移到
So Nike is literally acting as a well-being partner,
如服務、工具、應用程式上面
a health and fitness partner and service provider.
所以耐吉扮演的角色是一名伙伴
So what happens with this is they're saying, "Right,
一個健康、健身夥伴、服務提供者
you have a data dashboard. We know how far you've run,
這個活動是這樣的,他們會說「好,
how far you've moved, what your calorie intake, all that sort of stuff.
你有一塊數據面板,我們知道你跑了多遠
What you can do is, the more you run, the more points you get,
你吸取了多少卡路里等各種信息
and we have an auction where you can buy Nike stuff
你跑的越多,點數就越多
but only by proving that you've actually used the product to do stuff."
然後我們安排一埸拍賣會 你就可以去購買耐吉產品了
And you can't come into this. This is purely
但要證明你確實使用了耐吉的產品。」
for the community that are sweating
你不能報名參加這活動
using Nike products. You can't buy stuff with pesos.
這只限於耐吉社區的成員,他們使用耐吉產品
This is literally a closed environment, a closed auction space.
這是拿錢買不到的
In Africa, you know, airtime has become
這是一個真正的封閉環境, 封閉的拍賣場所
literally a currency in its own right.
在非洲,廣告時間
People are used to, because mobile is king,
已變成了一種貨幣
they're very, very used to transferring money,
因為流動手機是王者
making payments via mobile.
那裡的人已習慣於
And one of my favorite examples from a brand perspective
通過手機進行轉賬或支付
going on is Vodafone, where, in Egypt,
有一個我很喜歡的品牌例子
lots of people make purchases in markets
來自沃達豐,在埃及,
and very small independent stores.
大眾在市場
Loose change, small change is a real problem,
或小商店購物時
and what tends to happen is you buy a bunch of stuff,
找零錢是件很麻煩的事
you're due, say,
所以一般情況下
10 cents, 20 cents in change.
如你買下一堆東西
The shopkeepers tend to give you things like an onion
算下來有10美分20美分的零錢
or an aspirin, or a piece of gum,
店主就給你一個洋蔥
because they don't have small change.
一片阿司匹林或口香糖
So when Vodafone came in and saw this problem,
因為他們沒有零錢
this consumer pain point, they created
沃達豐發現了這問題
some small change which they call Fakka,
這種消費者的痛處
which literally sits and is given
於是沃達豐發明了名為 Fakka 的零錢
by the shopkeepers to people,
店主可以把它用作零錢
and it's credit that goes straight onto their mobile phone.
支付給顧客
So this currency becomes credit, which again,
Fakka 金額可以充值到手機裡
is really, really interesting.
所以這零錢再次變成了帳面餘額
And we did a survey that backs up the fact that,
這是非常有趣的例子
you know, 45 percent of people
我們曾做過的一項調查
in this very crucial demographic in the U.S.
顯示在美國最重要的年齡階層裡
were saying that they're comfortable using
約 45% 的大眾
an independent or branded currency.
表示願意使用
So that's getting really interesting here,
某種獨立或品牌貨幣
a really interesting dynamic going on.
所以事情變的真的有趣
And you think, corporations
有一種很有趣的趨勢
should start taking their assets and thinking of them
你會認為企業應
in a different way and trading them.
把貨幣視為資產,從另一角度
And you think, is it much of a leap?
看待它們,進行交易
It seems farfetched, but when you think about it,
你會想這是不是想得太遠了?
in America in 1860,
這好像遙不可及,但是你要知道
there were 1,600 corporations issuing banknotes.
美國在 1860 年時
There were 8,000 kinds of notes in America.
約有 1600 家企業發行紙幣
And the only thing that stopped that,
全美共有 8000 種紙幣流通
the government controlled four percent of the supply,
然而一件事就停止了這局面
and the only thing that stopped it
就是政府控制了 4% 的貨幣供應
was the Civil War breaking out,
而制止這種局面的原因
and the government suddenly wanted to take control of the money.
是因為爆發了內戰
So government, money, war, nothing changes there, then.
政府突然要控制貨幣的流通
So what I'm going to ask is, basically,
政府、貨幣、戰爭,這些元素從沒有改變
is history repeating itself?
所以我想提出的問題是
Is technology making paper money feel outmoded?
歷史是否在重演?
Are we decoupling money from the government?
高科技會否讓紙貨幣過時?
You know, you think about, brands are starting to fill the gaps.
我們是否讓貨幣和政府脫離?
Corporations are filling gaps that governments can't afford to fill.
請你們細想一下,品牌正在填補空隙
So I think, you know, will we be standing on stage
企業正在填補那些政府填補不了的空隙,
buying a coffee -- organic, fair trade coffee -- next year
明年今日,我想我們也許站在臺上
using TED florins or TED shillings?
使用 TED 弗羅林或 TED 先令
Thank you very much.
購買一杯有機公平貿易咖啡?
(Applause)
謝謝大家
Thank you. (Applause)
(掌聲)