Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: KA WAI WONG 審譯者: Emma Chiang

  • Let's face it:

    面對現實吧

  • Driving is dangerous.

    開車是危險的

  • It's one of the things that we don't like to think about,

    這是我們不願去想的事

  • but the fact that religious icons and good luck charms

    但現實中我們在世界各地看到

  • show up on dashboards around the world

    汽車儀器板上的宗教畫像和平安符

  • betrays the fact that we know this to be true.

    卻揭露我們其實知道開車危險

  • Car accidents are the leading cause of death

    車禍是美國16至19歲青年

  • in people ages 16 to 19 in the United States --

    死亡的主因

  • leading cause of death --

    車禍是導致死亡的主因

  • and 75 percent of these accidents have nothing to do

    而當中百分之七十五的車禍

  • with drugs or alcohol.

    和毒品或酒精無關

  • So what happens?

    到底發生了什麼?

  • No one can say for sure, but I remember my first accident.

    沒人能確實說出 我記得我第一次車禍

  • I was a young driver out on the highway,

    當時我還年輕 在高速公路上

  • and the car in front of me, I saw the brake lights go on.

    看到前面車輛的煞車燈亮了

  • I'm like, "Okay, all right, this guy is slowing down,

    我心想﹕好吧 這傢伙慢了下來

  • I'll slow down too."

    那我也跟著慢下來吧

  • I step on the brake.

    我跟著踩煞車

  • But no, this guy isn't slowing down.

    但我錯了 他不是減慢速度

  • This guy is stopping, dead stop, dead stop on the highway.

    而是停車 竟然在高速公路上停車

  • It was just going 65 -- to zero?

    從時速六十五英哩降到... 零?

  • I slammed on the brakes.

    我急踩剎車

  • I felt the ABS kick in, and the car is still going,

    ABS系統啟動了 但車仍向前駛

  • and it's not going to stop, and I know it's not going to stop,

    車繼續向前 我知道車不會停了

  • and the air bag deploys, the car is totaled,

    氣囊彈出 車子毀了

  • and fortunately, no one was hurt.

    幸好沒有傷亡

  • But I had no idea that car was stopping,

    我完全沒想到那輛車會停

  • and I think we can do a lot better than that.

    我認為我們可以做得更好

  • I think we can transform the driving experience

    我們可以透過讓車之間對話

  • by letting our cars talk to each other.

    改變駕駛的方式

  • I just want you to think a little bit

    大家想一想

  • about what the experience of driving is like now.

    現在我們是怎樣開車的

  • Get into your car. Close the door. You're in a glass bubble.

    上車 關上門 在一個玻璃安全室裡

  • You can't really directly sense the world around you.

    你無法直接感受周遭的世界

  • You're in this extended body.

    在這個擴大了的軀殼裡

  • You're tasked with navigating it down

    你的任務是

  • partially-seen roadways,

    在看不清路面的情況下

  • in and amongst other metal giants, at super-human speeds.

    在其他高速行駛的車輛間行駛

  • Okay? And all you have to guide you are your two eyes.

    只有你的眼睛能幫助你

  • Okay, so that's all you have,

    對 就只有你的眼睛

  • eyes that weren't really designed for this task,

    我們的眼睛不是用來完成這任務的

  • but then people ask you to do things like,

    可是人們總要求你做這樣的事

  • you want to make a lane change,

    例如你要換條車道

  • what's the first thing they ask you do?

    第一件要做的事是什麼?

  • Take your eyes off the road. That's right.

    不看路面的情況 是的

  • Stop looking where you're going, turn,

    不去看你前進的方向 然後轉彎

  • check your blind spot,

    檢查是不是有盲點

  • and drive down the road without looking where you're going.

    不看路 一直向前開

  • You and everyone else. This is the safe way to drive.

    在座各位和其他人 都會認為這是安全駕駛

  • Why do we do this? Because we have to,

    為什麼要這樣做? 因為我們必須

  • we have to make a choice, do I look here or do I look here?

    必須選擇 是要看這邊 還是那邊

  • What's more important?

    更重要的是甚麼?

  • And usually we do a fantastic job

    通常我們都能在路上

  • picking and choosing what we attend to on the road.

    好好挑選我們要走的路

  • But occasionally we miss something.

    但偶爾我們也會出小差池

  • Occasionally we sense something wrong or too late.

    有時候我們意識到做錯決定 已經太遲

  • In countless accidents, the driver says,

    無數的車禍 司機都說

  • "I didn't see it coming."

    沒看到有車駛過來

  • And I believe that. I believe that.

    我相信這種說法 非常相信

  • We can only watch so much.

    我們能看到的有限

  • But the technology exists now that can help us improve that.

    不過現今科技可以幫助我們

  • In the future, with cars exchanging data with each other,

    將來只要車輛間能互相交換資訊

  • we will be able to see not just three cars ahead

    我們不僅可以看到前面三部輛車

  • and three cars behind, to the right and left,

    還能看到後面三輛車 右邊的 左邊的

  • all at the same time, bird's eye view,

    全都看到 就像在空中俯瞰

  • we will actually be able to see into those cars.

    我們能夠實際觀察其他車

  • We will be able to see the velocity of the car in front of us,

    我們可以知道前面車輛的速度

  • to see how fast that guy's going or stopping.

    其他司機開得多快或是否要停車

  • If that guy's going down to zero, I'll know.

    他要停車 我也會知道

  • And with computation and algorithms and predictive models,

    透過電腦計算、規則系統和預知模擬

  • we will be able to see the future.

    我們可以預知未來

  • You may think that's impossible.

    或許大家會覺得不可能

  • How can you predict the future? That's really hard.

    我們怎能預知未來 這太難了

  • Actually, no. With cars, it's not impossible.

    其實這不難 車輛可以做到

  • Cars are three-dimensional objects

    車是立體的

  • that have a fixed position and velocity.

    有固定的位置和速度

  • They travel down roads.

    在路上行駛

  • Often they travel on pre-published routes.

    通常在規劃好的路上行駛

  • It's really not that hard to make reasonable predictions

    要合理地預測 車子在短時間內

  • about where a car's going to be in the near future.

    會怎樣 並不困難

  • Even if, when you're in your car

    即使你駕駛時

  • and some motorcyclist comes -- bshoom! --

    遇到幾台機車 咻 !

  • 85 miles an hour down, lane-splitting --

    以時速85英哩呼嘯而過 車子紛紛讓道

  • I know you've had this experience --

    相信大家都有這經驗吧

  • that guy didn't "just come out of nowhere."

    那人可不是憑空出現

  • That guy's been on the road probably for the last half hour.

    他說不定都已經在路上跑了半小時

  • (Laughter)

    [笑聲]

  • Right? I mean, somebody's seen him.

    是吧?我是說 一定有人看到他

  • Ten, 20, 30 miles back, someone's seen that guy,

    10哩前 20哩前 30哩前, 一定有人看到他

  • and as soon as one car sees that guy

    而只要有一部車看到他

  • and puts him on the map, he's on the map --

    把他放到地圖上 大家都會知道

  • position, velocity,

    他的位置和速度

  • good estimate he'll continue going 85 miles an hour.

    估計他會以每小時85英哩速度持續前進

  • You'll know, because your car will know, because

    你的車子預報 你便會知道這訊息

  • that other car will have whispered something in his ear,

    其他車也會對司機碎碎念

  • like, "By the way, five minutes,

    就像: 順便一提 再過5分鐘

  • motorcyclist, watch out."

    便會有機車 要小心

  • You can make reasonable predictions about how cars behave.

    你可以合理地預測車在路的情況

  • I mean, they're Newtonian objects.

    我是說 車子也遵從牛頓定律

  • That's very nice about them.

    還好是這樣

  • So how do we get there?

    那 我們要如何走到那一步?

  • We can start with something as simple

    我們可以開始分享我們車與車的位置

  • as sharing our position data between cars,

    從這件小事做起

  • just sharing GPS.

    就只是分享 GPS (全球定位系統)

  • If I have a GPS and a camera in my car,

    如果我的車子裝有 GPS 和鏡頭

  • I have a pretty precise idea of where I am

    我就能精確地知道我所在的位置

  • and how fast I'm going.

    以及我是以多快的速度前進

  • With computer vision, I can estimate where

    有電腦輔助 我還可以估算我旁邊哪裡有車

  • the cars around me are, sort of, and where they're going.

    以及他們要往哪裡去

  • And same with the other cars.

    其他車也可以知道

  • They can have a precise idea of where they are,

    他們可以知道自己身在何方

  • and sort of a vague idea of where the other cars are.

    也能大約了解其他車子的位置

  • What happens if two cars share that data,

    那麼如果兩部車子分享資訊, 會如何呢?

  • if they talk to each other?

    假設它們可以對話呢?

  • I can tell you exactly what happens.

    我可以告訴你會發生什麼事

  • Both models improve.

    兩部車都獲得行進間的改善

  • Everybody wins.

    是雙贏

  • Professor Bob Wang and his team

    Bob Wang 教授和他的團隊

  • have done computer simulations of what happens

    做了一個電腦模擬 看下列情況會產生什麼結果

  • when fuzzy estimates combine, even in light traffic,

    當集合一些粗估的資料 用在行車順暢的情況下,

  • when cars just share GPS data,

    讓車與車只是交換 GPS 資訊

  • and we've moved this research out of the computer simulation

    我們將這個研究帶離電腦模擬

  • and into robot test beds that have the actual sensors

    帶到裝有感應器的機器實驗上

  • that are in cars now on these robots:

    把原本放車子的裝置, 用到機器身上

  • stereo cameras, GPS,

    音響, 鏡頭, GPS

  • and the two-dimensional laser range finders

    還有平面雷射測距儀

  • that are common in backup systems.

    這些都是車子的標準配備

  • We also attach a discrete short-range communication radio,

    我們還裝上一台短距的無線電機台

  • and the robots talk to each other.

    讓機器可以相互溝通

  • When these robots come at each other,

    當兩部機器朝彼此前進

  • they track each other's position precisely,

    它們可以追蹤到彼此的精確位置

  • and they can avoid each other.

    因此可避免互撞

  • We're now adding more and more robots into the mix,

    我們現在在這個實驗中加入越來越多的機器

  • and we encountered some problems.

    然後我們遇到了一些狀況

  • One of the problems, when you get too much chatter,

    其一便是, 太吵了 當接收到太多瑣碎的言語

  • it's hard to process all the packets, so you have to prioritize,

    就很難去處理所有的資訊封包 這時就得選擇優先順序

  • and that's where the predictive model helps you.

    而預知模型系統 在這個時候就派上用場了

  • If your robot cars are all tracking the predicted trajectories,

    如果機器人車子 一直行駛在可預期的軌道上

  • you don't pay as much attention to those packets.

    就不用費心去解讀那些資訊封包

  • You prioritize the one guy

    首先被挑出的這個人

  • who seems to be going a little off course.

    往往就是有點偏移行進路線

  • That guy could be a problem.

    那麼這個人就有可能是個麻煩

  • And you can predict the new trajectory.

    然後你就可以再規劃一條新的軌道

  • So you don't only know that he's going off course, you know how.

    所以你不只知道他要偏離航道了 還知道他要怎麼偏

  • And you know which drivers you need to alert to get out of the way.

    也能知道遇到那個駕駛要提高警覺, 離遠一點

  • And we wanted to do -- how can we best alert everyone?

    我們希望 -- 我們要如何警告其他人?

  • How can these cars whisper, "You need to get out of the way?"

    這些車要怎麼小聲警告: "你得趕緊離開這裡"

  • Well, it depends on two things:

    嗯, 這得要兩個條件配合

  • one, the ability of the car,

    一, 車子的性能

  • and second the ability of the driver.

    二, 駕駛本身的技巧

  • If one guy has a really great car,

    就算這個人擁有一部很讚的車

  • but they're on their phone or, you know, doing something,

    但是他如果邊開邊做其他事 像講手機之類的

  • they're not probably in the best position

    他們可能就無法在緊急狀態中

  • to react in an emergency.

    做出最佳的反應

  • So we started a separate line of research

    因此我們又著手另一項實驗

  • doing driver state modeling.

    做有關駕駛者的狀態模型

  • And now, using a series of three cameras,

    我們使用三個一組的攝像機

  • we can detect if a driver is looking forward,

    來偵測這個駕駛人是看前面

  • looking away, looking down, on the phone,

    看別的地方, 看下面, 還是講手機

  • or having a cup of coffee.

    或喝咖啡

  • We can predict the accident

    我們可以預知事故

  • and we can predict who, which cars,

    我們可以知道是誰以及哪一部車子

  • are in the best position to move out of the way

    最好離開目前的道路

  • to calculate the safest route for everyone.

    並且幫每一個人規劃最安全的路徑

  • Fundamentally, these technologies exist today.

    最重要的是 這些科技在今天都已經有了

  • I think the biggest problem that we face

    我認為眼前最大的困難是

  • is our own willingness to share our data.

    大家是否願意做資訊分享

  • I think it's a very disconcerting notion,

    我想這樣的概念或許讓人有點不安

  • this idea that our cars will be watching us,

    因為我們的車子會監視著我們

  • talking about us to other cars,

    還跟別的車子打小報告

  • that we'll be going down the road in a sea of gossip.

    簡直就像航行在一片流言蜚語的汪洋中

  • But I believe it can be done in a way that protects our privacy,

    但是我相信, 我們還是可以 在保有隱私的情況下執行

  • just like right now, when I look at your car from the outside,

    好比現在, 如果我從外面看你的車

  • I don't really know about you.

    我不會知道你是何許人物

  • If I look at your license plate number,

    就算看著你的牌照號碼

  • I don't really know who you are.

    我也不會知道你是誰

  • I believe our cars can talk about us behind our backs.

    我相信我們的車子會在我們背後說長道短

  • (Laughter)

    [笑聲]

  • And I think it's going to be a great thing.

    但我認為那將會是件好事

  • I want you to consider for a moment

    花幾分鐘想想

  • if you really don't want the distracted teenager behind you

    你是不是真的不希望 那煩人的青少年在你背後

  • to know that you're braking,

    知道你要煞車

  • that you're coming to a dead stop.

    知道你要停下來

  • By sharing our data willingly,

    倘若各位願意分享

  • we can do what's best for everyone.

    我們可以幫每個人做到最好

  • So let your car gossip about you.

    所以 讓你的車去東家長西家短吧

  • It's going to make the roads a lot safer.

    這能讓道路使用更為安全

  • Thank you.

    謝謝各位

  • (Applause)

    [掌聲]

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: KA WAI WONG 審譯者: Emma Chiang

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

A2 初級 中文 美國腔 TED 車子 預知 車禍 駕駛 車輛

【TED】詹妮弗-希利:如果汽車會說話,事故或許可以避免(詹妮弗-希利:如果汽車會說話,事故或許可以避免)。 (【TED】Jennifer Healey: If cars could talk, accidents might be avoidable (Jennifer Healey: If cars could talk, accidents might be avoidable))

  • 32 6
    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字