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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: Yi-Ting Chung 審譯者: Geoff Chen

  • That's how we traveled in the year 1900.

    這是我們 1900 年用的交通工具

  • That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.

    輕便敞篷馬車,沒有裝暖氣

  • It doesn't have air conditioning.

    也沒有裝冷氣

  • That horse is pulling it along

    那隻馬

  • at one percent of the speed of sound,

    以 1% 的聲速前進

  • and the rutted dirt road

    而布滿車輪痕跡的泥濘小路

  • turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.

    一下雨就成了沼澤地

  • That's a Boeing 707.

    這是波音 707 客機

  • Only 60 years later, it travels

    只過了 60 年

  • at 80 percent of the speed of sound,

    就能以 80% 的聲速移動

  • and we don't travel any faster today

    而現在我們沒有更快的交通工具

  • because commercial supersonic air travel

    因為超音速商務飛機

  • turned out to be a bust.

    最後失敗了

  • So I started wondering and pondering,

    所以我開始思索

  • could it be that the best years of American economic growth

    會不會美國經濟最蓬勃發展的年代

  • are behind us?

    已經過去了?

  • And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth

    這也意味著,或許經濟成長

  • is almost over.

    幾乎已經結束了

  • Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.

    有些結束的原因沒有太大的爭議

  • There are four headwinds that are just hitting

    現在有四大困境正迎面襲擊

  • the American economy in the face.

    美國現在的經濟實力

  • They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.

    包括人口統計、教育、債務及不平等的問題

  • They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.

    這些問題足以減少一半的成長

  • So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.

    所以我們需要大量創新 來抵銷經濟下滑的趨勢

  • And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,

    這就是我的主題:因為這些困境

  • if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been

    假如創新的表現能和過去 150 年一樣亮眼

  • in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.

    經濟成長會減半

  • If innovation is less powerful,

    假如創新力沒有進步

  • invents less great, wonderful things,

    無法再發明更多有用的東西

  • then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.

    那麼經濟成長將比不上過去的一半

  • Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.

    這是過去八個世紀經濟成長的表現

  • The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,

    縱軸代表每年成長的百分比

  • zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.

    一年 0%、1% 或 2%

  • The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.

    白線代表英國,後段是美國

  • takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,

    在 1900 年成為世界強權

  • when the line switches to red.

    也就是紅色線段的部分

  • You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,

    大家可以注意到,前面四個世紀

  • there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.

    幾乎沒有任何成長,只有 0.2%

  • Then growth gets better and better.

    接著成長越來越快

  • It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,

    在 1930、1940 及 1950 年 有最高的經濟成長率

  • and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.

    然後成長逐漸趨緩,要注意的是

  • That last downward notch in the red line

    紅線中最後一次下滑的部分

  • is not actual data.

    不是實際的資料

  • That is a forecast that I made six years ago

    是我六年前做的預測

  • that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.

    經濟成長將下滑至 1.3%

  • But you know what the actual facts are?

    但是你們知道實際數據是多少嗎?

  • You know what the growth in per-person income has been

    你們知道過去六年,美國每人所得

  • in the United States in the last six years?

    成長率是多少嗎?

  • Negative.

    是負數

  • This led to a fantasy.

    假設一下

  • What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?

    我試著以曲線表示這份歷史紀錄

  • I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,

    我可以自己決定曲線在哪裡結束

  • but I decided I would end it at 0.2,

    我認為會在 0.2 的部分

  • just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.

    就跟英國前面四個世紀一樣

  • Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown

    歷史上我們的經濟成長表現是

  • at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,

    從 1891 年到 2007 年,每年都成長了

  • 1891 to 2007,

    2%

  • and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.

    而且別忘了從 2007 年就開始出現負成長

  • But if growth slows down,

    如果成長趨緩

  • instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,

    而不是每一代的生活水準都有兩倍成長

  • Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,

    未來美國人無法過的 比自己的父母加倍幸福

  • or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.

    或甚至連他們幸福的四分之一都不到

  • Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.

    現在我們來看看每人平均所得水準

  • The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.

    縱軸是以現在物價來衡量的價格

  • You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,

    大家可以看到在 1891 年,左手邊的部分

  • we were at about 5,000 dollars.

    大約是平均 5000 元

  • Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output

    現在大約每人總產出是

  • per member of the population.

    四萬四千元

  • Now what if we could achieve that historic

    萬一接下來的 70 年,我們可以達到

  • two-percent growth for the next 70 years?

    2% 成長的表現,結果會是如何呢?

  • Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.

    這就是算術上的問題了

  • Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.

    2% 的成長率,70 年後是現在生活水準的四倍

  • That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.

    代表我們將從四萬四成長到十八萬

  • Well, we're not going to do that,

    但我們做不到

  • and the reason is the headwinds.

    原因就是那些困境

  • The first headwind is demographics.

    第一個困境是人口統計

  • It's a truism that your standard of living

    我們都知道,如果每小時的人力增加

  • rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,

    生活水準會成長得比生產力更快

  • if hours per person increased.

    也比每小時的產出更快

  • And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s

    從 70 和 80 年代

  • when women entered the labor force.

    女性投入勞動力,就可以看的出來

  • But now it's turned around.

    但現在情況不同了

  • Now hours per person are shrinking,

    現在每小時的人力逐漸在萎縮

  • first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,

    第一個原因是因為 嬰兒潮出生的人退休了

  • and second because there's been a very significant

    第二個原因是因為

  • dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males

    大量男性壯年人口的勞動力下降

  • who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.

    這些人分布於受教育人口的底層

  • The next headwind is education.

    第二個困境是教育

  • We've got problems all over our educational system

    儘管推動了「力爭上游」的教育改革計畫

  • despite Race to the Top.

    整個教育體制還是有問題

  • In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education

    大學裡,高等教育的成本膨脹

  • that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.

    使得醫療照顧的成本萎縮

  • We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,

    高等教育的學生負債高達一兆美元

  • and our college completion rate

    而我們大學的畢業率

  • is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.

    是 15 個百分點,比加拿大低 15 個百分點

  • We have a lot of debt.

    我們有很多的債務

  • Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007

    我們的經濟從 2000 年到 2007 年有所成長

  • on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.

    是因為消費者大量的借貸

  • Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons

    需要償還貸款的消費者

  • why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.

    就是我們現在經濟蕭條的主因

  • And everybody of course knows

    而大家當然都知道

  • that the federal government debt is growing

    聯邦政府的公債也在持續上升

  • as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,

    急速成為國內生產毛額的一部分

  • and the only way that's going to stop is some combination

    要阻止債務增加唯一的方法

  • of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,

    是結合高稅率及低津貼的方式

  • also called transfer payments.

    也叫做轉移支付

  • And that gets us down from the 1.5,

    這使得我們教育有的 1.5% 成長率

  • where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.

    因負債下滑至 1.3%

  • And then we have inequality.

    最後是不平等的問題

  • Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,

    金融危機前 15 年

  • the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent

    底部 99% 所得分配的成長率

  • of the income distribution was half a point slower

    比我們之前所提過的平均成長率

  • than the averages we've been talking about before.

    還要低 0.5 個百分點

  • All the rest went to the top one percent.

    剩下的都是頂端 1%

  • So that brings us down to 0.8.

    因此使得我們的成長率下滑至 0.8%

  • And that 0.8 is the big challenge.

    這 0.8% 又是一大挑戰

  • Are we going to grow at 0.8?

    我們有 0.8% 的經濟成長率嗎?

  • If so, that's going to require that our inventions

    如果有,那我們的創新就必須

  • are as important as the ones that happened

    和過去 150 年的創新

  • over the last 150 years.

    一樣重要

  • So let's see what some of those inventions were.

    我們來看看這些創新有哪些

  • If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,

    在 1875 年,如果你晚上想要讀書

  • you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.

    你需要一盞油燈或煤氣燈

  • They created pollution, they created odors,

    這些燈會造成污染,產生氣味

  • they were hard to control, the light was dim,

    光線微弱,難以控制

  • and they were a fire hazard.

    還有火災的危險

  • By 1929, electric light was everywhere.

    到了 1929 年,到處都有電燈

  • We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.

    因為電梯的發明,我們有了向上發展的城市

  • Central Manhattan became possible.

    曼哈頓的繁榮才能成真

  • And then, in addition to that, at the same time,

    除此之外,同時

  • hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools

    手持工具被大量的電動工具

  • and hand-powered electric tools,

    和手動操作的電動工具所取代

  • all achieved by electricity.

    一切都歸功於電的發明

  • Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.

    電力對於婦女解放也有很大的幫助

  • Women, back in the late 19th century,

    19 世紀晚期,女性

  • spent two days a week doing the laundry.

    一週花兩天的時間在洗衣服

  • They did it on a scrub board.

    用洗衣板洗衣服

  • Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.

    然後還要把衣服拿出去晾乾

  • Then they had to bring them in.

    再把衣服收進來

  • The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.

    整個過程一個禮拜就花了兩天

  • And then we had the electric washing machine.

    後來發明了洗衣機

  • And by 1950, they were everywhere.

    到了 1950 年,已經普遍使用

  • But the women still had to shop every day,

    但婦女還是得每天上街買菜

  • but no they didn't, because electricity

    事實上不需要,因為電

  • brought us the electric refrigerator.

    帶動了冰箱的發明

  • Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes

    19 世紀晚期,大部分家庭唯一的熱源

  • was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.

    是廚房裡用來煮飯的大壁爐

  • The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.

    臥房都很冷,沒有暖氣

  • But by 1929, certainly by 1950,

    但是到了 1929 年,更確定是到 1950 年

  • we had central heating everywhere.

    中央暖氣系統已無所不在

  • What about the internal combustion engine,

    那麼 1879 年

  • which was invented in 1879?

    發明的內燃機呢?

  • In America, before the motor vehicle,

    在美國,車子發明以前

  • transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,

    交通完全倚賴馬匹

  • which dropped, without restraint,

    牠們每天會在街道上無限制的

  • 25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day

    排放 25 到 50 磅的糞便

  • together with a gallon of urine.

    以及一加侖的尿液

  • That comes out at five to 10 tons daily

    城市每平方英里

  • per square mile in cities.

    一天會有 5 到 10 噸的排放量

  • Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.

    那些馬還吃了美國四分之一的農地

  • That's the percentage of American agricultural land

    這就是美國農地

  • it took to feed the horses.

    用來養馬的比例

  • Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,

    當然,車子發明了以後

  • and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,

    到 1929 年,幾乎已普遍使用

  • that agricultural land could be used for human consumption

    那些農地就能讓人使用

  • or for export.

    或是出口

  • And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,

    這個數據很有趣,1900 年開始

  • only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households

    只過了 30 年,美國每戶擁有車子的比率

  • in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.

    從 0% 成長到 90%,