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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: Annie Lam 審譯者: Coco Shen

  • Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,

    嗨,我今天要談的是塞車

  • namely road congestion.

    也就是所謂的交通擁塞

  • Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.

    塞車非常普遍

  • It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,

    世界各地的城市都有這個問題

  • which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.

    仔細想想其實令人驚訝

  • I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.

    畢竟城市之間不同之處甚多

  • I mean, you have the typical European cities,

    像典型的歐洲城市

  • with a dense urban core, good public transportation

    都有稠密的都市中心,良好的公共交通

  • mostly, not a lot of road capacity.

    但大部分道路狹小

  • But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

    另一方面,我們看看美國城市

  • It's moving by itself, okay.

    它自己動起來了,好

  • Anyway, the American cities:

    言歸正傳,美國的城市裡

  • lots of roads dispersed over large areas,

    許多道路散佈在大片土地上

  • almost no public transportation.

    幾乎沒有公共交通工具

  • And then you have the emerging world cities,

    再來是初嶄頭角的世界級城市

  • with a mixed variety of vehicles,

    當中混雜各種交通工具

  • mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed

    各種土地使用模式,而且相當分散

  • but often with a very dense urban core.

    市中心卻多數人口稠密

  • And traffic planners all around the world have tried

    世界各地的交通規劃人員

  • lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

    採用過不同措施:以密集或分散形式規劃城市

  • lots of roads or lots of public transport

    建大量道路,或大力發展公共交通

  • or lots of bike lanes or more information,

    規劃很多單車徑,或提供更多資訊

  • or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

    措施不勝枚舉,但似乎都不得要領

  • But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

    這一切努力都有一個共同點

  • They're basically attempts at figuring out

    就是嘗試找出

  • what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

    人們避免在尖峰時間開車的方法

  • They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning

    基本上這些方法旨在影響人該做什麼

  • what other people should do, planning their life for them.

    替別人規劃生活

  • Now, planning a complex social system

    規劃一個複雜的社會系統相當困難

  • is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

    讓我給你說個故事

  • Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,

    早在1989年,柏林圍牆倒下時

  • an urban planner in London got a phone call

    一位倫敦的都市規劃師接到電話

  • from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,

    是莫斯科的同事打來的,他說

  • "Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,

    “嗨,我是維拉迪摩,我想知道

  • who's in charge of London's bread supply?"

    倫敦的麵包供應是誰管的?”

  • And the urban planner in London goes,

    那位都市規劃師回應道

  • "What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —

    “甚麼意思? 誰管理倫敦的...

  • I mean, no one is in charge."

    沒人管啊。”

  • "Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

    “但總有個人管吧

  • I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."

    這個系統極其複雜,一定要有人管理運作。”

  • "No. No. No one is in charge.

    “不,不,真沒人管

  • I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.

    我意思是,我真的沒想過這問題

  • It basically organizes itself."

    系統會自我管理吧。”

  • It organizes itself.

    自我管理

  • That's an example of a complex social system

    這例子說明複雜的社會系統

  • which has the ability of self-organizing,

    擁有自我管理的能力

  • and this is a very deep insight.

    這洞見發人深省

  • When you try to solve really complex social problems,

    當你試圖解決非常複雜的社會問題

  • the right thing to do is most of the time

    很多時候

  • to create the incentives.

    正確的做法是製造誘因

  • You don't plan the details,

    不需要規劃細節

  • and people will figure out what to do,

    大家自會知道該做甚麼

  • how to adapt to this new framework.

    如何適應這個新框架

  • And let's now look at how we can use this insight

    讓我們現在看看如何應用這洞見

  • to combat road congestion.

    來解決塞車問題

  • This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

    這是我家鄉斯德哥爾摩的地圖

  • Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

    中型城市,現時大約住了兩百萬人

  • but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water

    但斯德哥爾摩除了水還是水

  • means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

    即是說城裡有很多橋,古老的,狹窄的

  • which means lots of road congestion.

    亦即是說交通經常擁塞

  • And these red dots show the most congested parts,

    這些紅點代表最擁塞的區域

  • which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.

    也就是通往內城的橋

  • And then someone came up with the idea that,

    後來有人想出解決方法

  • apart from good public transport,

    不是改善公共運輸

  • apart from spending money on roads,

    不是大費金錢興建道路

  • let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

    而是在瓶頸位置向司機徵收一兩歐元

  • Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,

    一兩二歐元不是甚麼大錢

  • I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,

    相對於停車費和日常開支而言

  • so you would probably expect that car drivers

    所以你可能以為司機們

  • wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

    對這種小額收費無動於衷

  • You would be wrong.

    你錯了

  • One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars

    一兩歐元足以令百分之二十的汽車

  • disappear from rush hours.

    在尖峰時間從路上消失

  • Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,

    百份之二十,你或許覺得這是個大數字

  • but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

    但仍有百份之八十的問題未解決,對嗎?

  • Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.

    因為仍然有百份之八十的汽車在路上

  • Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be

    這也是錯的

  • a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that

    因為交通問題不是綫性現象

  • once you reach above a certain capacity threshold

    當你超過一個容量臨界點之後

  • then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.

    交通擁塞會開始很快地惡化

  • But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

    幸運的是,反之亦然

  • If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion

    如果你可以稍為減少交通量

  • will go down much faster than you might think.

    擁塞問題減輕的速度比你想像中更快

  • Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm

    道路收費於2006年1月3號在斯德哥爾摩實施

  • on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture

    這裏第一張是斯德哥爾摩

  • of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.

    一條典型街道的照片,在2號拍的

  • The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.

    開始收費的第一天它變成這樣

  • This is what happens when you take away

    這就是路上減少百分之二十的車輛以後

  • 20 percent of the cars from the streets.

    看起來的樣子

  • You really reduce congestion quite substantially.

    實際上,塞車情況大為改善

  • But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

    但正如我所說,汽車司機會適應的,對嗎?

  • So after a while they would all come back because they

    所以不久之後,他們會回到路上

  • have sort of gotten used to charges.

    因為他們已適應了收費

  • Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago

    又錯了,六年半前

  • since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,

    斯德哥爾摩開始徵收道路費

  • and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

    到了今天,路上的汽車流量依然偏低

  • But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series

    但大家看,在時間序列上有個有趣的間縫

  • in 2007.

    時為2007年

  • Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,

    實情是這樣的

  • they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced

    道路收費最初引入時屬試驗性質

  • in January and then abolished again at the end of July,

    故此在一月引入後,七月尾便被廢除

  • followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced

    接着舉行全民投票,然後在2007年再次引入道路費

  • again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

    這當然是一次極好的研究機會

  • I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,

    我意思是開始時它已是個有趣的實驗

  • and we actually got to do it twice.

    而我們有機會兩次進行這實驗

  • And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,

    對我來說,我希望大約一年進行一次

  • but they won't let me do that.

    但他們不許我這樣做

  • But it was fun anyway.

    無論如何這是有趣的實驗

  • So, we followed up. What happened?

    我們跟進之後,有甚麼發現?

  • This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,

    這是7月31日,徵收道路費的最後一天

  • and you see the same street but now it's summer,

    你看到的是同一條街,而這正是夏季

  • and summer in Stockholm is a very nice

    斯德哥爾摩的夏季

  • and light time of the year,

    是年中非常天朗氣清的日子

  • and the first day without the congestion charges

    取消道路收費的第一天

  • looked like this.

    是這樣的

  • All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire

    所有汽車都返回路上,你真的要佩服那些司機

  • the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.

    他們的反應真的很快

  • The first day they all came back.

    他們第一天就回來了

  • And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.

    情況持續下去,所以2007年的數據是這樣的

  • Now these traffic figures are really exciting

    這些交通數據真的令人興奮

  • and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,

    有點出人意表,但同時十分有用

  • but I would say that the most surprising slide here

    但今天給大看的幻燈片中

  • I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.

    最令人驚奇的不是這張,而是這張

  • This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

    它顯示了市民支持在斯德哥爾摩實施道路收費

  • and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced

    你看到當引入道路收費之時

  • in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.

    即2006年初春,人們激烈反對收費

  • Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.

    百份之七十的市民反對收費

  • But what happened when the congestion charges

    當道路收費實施後,出現的情況並不如你想像的那樣

  • were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

    人們會越來越憎惡它

  • No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point

    正好相反,他們改變了

  • where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,

    現時有百份之七十的市民支持繼續收費

  • meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:

    我是說,讓我再說一次

  • 70 percent of the population in Stockholm

    斯德哥爾摩百份之七十的人口

  • want to keep a price for something that used to be free.

    希望對一樣一向可免費使用的東西繼續收費

  • Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?

    怎會這樣?有甚麼原因?

  • Well, think about it this way. Who changed?

    試循這方向想。誰改變了?

  • I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,

    那百份之二十消失了的司機

  • surely they must be discontent in a way.

    肯定會在某方面感到不滿

  • And where did they go? If we can understand this,

    他們去了那裏?如果我們明白這點

  • then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

    或許便可以明白為何人們喜愛這措施

  • Well, so we did this huge interview survey

    我們很多交通工具上

  • with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out

    進行大型的訪問調查

  • who changed, and where did they go?

    目的是要找出誰改變了,和這些人去了那裏?

  • And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)

    原來受訪者自己也不知道

  • For some reason, the car drivers are --

    由於某些原因

  • they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

    那些司機都認為他們按自己一貫的方式駕駛

  • And why is that? It's because that travel patterns

    為甚麼會這樣?這是因為人們的駕駛路線

  • are much less stable than you might think.

    並非如你想像那般穩定

  • Each day, people make new decisions, and people change

    每一天,人會做新的決定,人會變

  • and the world changes around them, and each day

    環繞他們的世界也在變

  • all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly

    每一天這些決定會產生細微作用

  • away from rush hour car driving

    促使他們避開繁忙時間駕車

  • in a way that people don't even notice.

    人往往不會覺察這些作用

  • They're not even aware of this themselves.

    他們自己甚至不知道自己已改變

  • And the other question, who changed their mind?

    另一個問題是,誰改變了他們的心思?

  • Who changed their opinion, and why?

    誰改變了他們的想法,和為甚麼?

  • So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out

    我們為此做了另一個訪問調查

  • why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

    為了要了解人為何改變想法,和那些群組的人改變了想法?

  • And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

    分柝了數據之後,我們發現

  • more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

    超過一半的人認為他們的想法沒有變

  • They're actually confident that they have

    他們真的以為

  • liked congestion pricing all along.

    他們一直都喜歡道路收費

  • Which means that we are now in a position

    這即是說現在的情況是

  • where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

    我們透過收費界線減少了百份二十交通流量

  • with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,

    同時大幅減少了塞車情況

  • and people aren't even aware that they have changed,

    而人們甚至不為意他們已改變了

  • and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

    並且他們誠實地相信他們一直都喜歡這個情況

  • This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

    這就是我們解決複雜的社會問題時

  • complex social problems, and when you do that,

    輕推所產生的力量,你那樣做的時候

  • you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.

    你不應該試圖告訴人他們要如何適應

  • You should just nudge them in the right direction.

    你只要輕輕把他們往對的方向推

  • And if you do it right,

    如果你做得對

  • people will actually embrace the change,

    人們會支持改變

  • and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

    並且如果你做得對,人們甚至會喜歡它

  • Thank you. (Applause)

    謝謝大家。(拍掌)

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Annie Lam 審譯者: Coco Shen

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【TED】喬納斯-埃利亞松:如何解決交通堵塞問題(Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams)。 (【TED】Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams (Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams))

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