I'm going to start on a slightly somber note.

我想從有點嚴肅的話題說起。

Two thousand and seven, five years ago,

2007年，5年前，

my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer.

我太太診斷出乳癌，

Stage IIB.

第二期B階段。

Now, looking back, the most harrowing part of that experience

現在回想起，那過程最難熬階段

was not just the hospital visits --

現在回想起，那過程最難熬階段

these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.

不是醫院就診過程—

It was not even the initial shock of knowing that she had breast cancer

可理解的，我太太在這過程中吃了不少苦。

at just 39 years old,

(最難熬階段)甚至也不是最初的震驚階段，

absolutely no history of cancer in her family.

得知她在39歲的年紀就得了乳癌，

The most horrifying and agonizing part of the whole experience

她的家庭絕對沒有癌症病史。

was we were making decisions after decisions after decisions

治療癌症過程中最惶恐和折磨的階段

that were being thrust upon us.

治療癌症過程中最惶恐和折磨的階段

Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?

是我們做完一決定後又被迫去做另一個決定。

Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,

是我們做完一決定後又被迫去做另一個決定。

given that it was stage IIB?

該做乳房切除術嗎?該做乳房腫瘤切除術嗎?

With all the side effects?

在乳癌第二期B階段，該做更積極的治療方式嗎?

Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?

在乳癌第二期B階段，該做更積極的治療方式嗎?

And these were being thrust upon us by the doctors.

產生副作用怎麼辦?

Now you could ask this question,

或是該做沒那麼積極的治療方式?

why were the doctors doing this?

而且我們被醫生的這些壓力壓得喘不過氣來。

A simplistic answer would be,

而且我們被醫生的這些壓力壓得喘不過氣來。

the doctors are doing this

現在你可能會問這個問題，

because they want to protect themselves legally.

為什麼醫生要這樣做呢?

I think that is too simplistic.

現在有人可能會說，

These are well-meaning doctors,

醫生會這樣做是為了要合法的保護自己嘛。

some of them have gone on to become very good friends.

我覺得這是太幼稚的想法。

They probably were simply following the wisdom

這些都是有良心的醫生，

that has come down through the ages,

其中有些醫生進而和病人成為要好的朋友。

this adage that when you're making decisions,

他們可能只是遵循著那些隨年紀所增長的經驗

especially decisions of importance,

有句老話這樣說的，當你作決定時，

it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,

特別是重要決定時，

it's best to be in the driver's seat.

最好是要掌控一切，

And we were certainly in the driver's seat,

如同坐在駕駛座般。

making all these decisions.

而且我們的確是如同坐在駕駛座，

And let me tell you -- if some of you have been there,

做所有決定，讓我來告訴你，

it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.

如果你們有人曾經處於那情況下，

Which got me thinking.

都會覺得這是最惶恐和折磨的過程。

I said, is there any validity to this whole adage

這讓我開始思索一些事。

that when you're making decisions,

我想，有任何方式來驗證

it's best to take the driver's seat,

那句老話，當你作決定時，

be in charge, be in control?

最好要如同坐在駕駛座，

Or are there contexts where we're far better off

一切置於掌控?

taking the passenger's seat

或者坐在乘客座讓其他人駕駛的方式

and have someone else drive?

會比較好一點?

For example, a trusted financial advisor,

比如，變成一個信任的理財顧問般，

could be a trusted doctor, etc.

可能是一個可以信任的醫生，等等。

And since I study human decision making,

而且由於我研究人類決策學，

I said, I'm going to run some studies

所以我想我要作一些研究

to find some answers.

找出答案。

And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.

而我今天要和你們分享這研究的一些結果。

So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.

所以，想像你們都是這研究的實驗對象。

I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is,

我要告訴你們在這實驗中你們所要做的就是

you're going to drink a cup of tea.

你們要喝杯茶。

If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.

如果你們好奇原因，我待會幾秒鐘後會告訴你們。

You are going to solve a series of puzzles,

你要去解開一連串的謎題，

and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.

我馬上會給你看一些例子。

And the more puzzles you solve,

你解開越多謎題，

the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.

你贏得獎金的機會就越大。

Now, why do you have to consume the tea?

那麼，為什麼你們必須喝茶呢?

Why? Because it makes a lot of sense:

為什麼呢? 因為這麼做相當有意義。

In order to solve these puzzles effectively, if you think about it,

為了要正確的解開這些謎題，

your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously, right?

你們想一下，你的大腦必需要同時處在兩個狀態。

It needs to be alert,

對吧 ? 必需要清醒，

for which caffeine is very good.

那麼，要喝咖啡因的茶比較好。

Simultaneously, it needs to be calm --

同時，必需要保持鎮定。

not agitated, calm --

不能焦慮，要鎮定。那麼，要喝含洋甘菊的茶比較好。

for which chamomile is very good.

現在開始 “受試者間設計”，

Now comes the between-subjects design,

亦即基本AB設計，AB測試。

the AB design, the AB testing.

所以我將你們隨機分成兩組。

So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you to one of two groups.

所以我將你們隨機分成兩組。

So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,

所以想像有條想像的線在這裡。

so everyone here will be group A,

所以這邊的人是組別A，

everyone out here will be group B.

而這邊的人為組別B。

Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is I'm going to show you these two teas,

現在，對你們這群人，我要做的就是

and I'll go ahead and ask you to choose your tea.

我要給你們這兩種茶，

So you can choose whichever tea you want.

而且我要你們

You can decide, what is your mental state:

選擇一種茶。所以你們能選擇要喝哪種茶。

OK, I choose the caffeinated tea,

你們能決定，要讓頭腦處於什麼狀態:

I choose the chamomile tea.

好的，我要選擇含咖啡因的茶，

So you're going to be in charge, you're going to be in control,

我要選擇含洋甘菊的茶。

you're going to be in the driver's seat.

所以你將可掌握一切，

You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,

控制一切，你將如同坐在駕駛座。

but you don't have a choice.

你們這群人，我會給你們看這兩種茶，

I'm going to give you one of these two teas,

但你們沒有選擇權。

and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these two teas

我要給你們其中一種茶，

at random for you.

記著，我是隨機挑一種茶給你。

And you know that.

記著，我是隨機挑一種茶給你。

So if you think about it, this is an extreme-case scenario,

而且你知道這過程。

because in the real world,

所以如果你思考一下，這是一種極端條件的情境，

whenever you are taking passenger's seat,

因為在現實世界中，

very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,

每當你坐在乘客座時，

an expert, etc.

駕駛人常常是你所信賴的人，

So this is an extreme-case scenario.

經驗豐富的人。所以說這是一個極端狀況的情境。

Now, you're all going to consume the tea.

現在，你們都要喝下這杯茶。

So imagine that you're taking the tea now,

所以想像一下你們正在喝茶，

we'll wait for you to finish the tea.

我們會等你喝完茶的。

We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.

我們會再等你五分鐘等茶發揮作用。

Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.

接著你們有30分鐘的時間解15個謎題。

Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.

這是你們要解的謎題。

Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?

有人要嘗試嗎?

Audience member: Pulpit! Baba Shiv: Whoa! OK.

(聽眾: Pulpit) Baba Shiv: 哇!

That's cool.

好酷喔。

Yeah, so what we'd do if we had you who gave the answer

所以我們會做的就是如果你答對了，

as a participant,

基於你是參予者的緣故，我們會參考你的程度校正難度。

we would have calibrated the difficulty level

基於你是參予者的緣故，我們會參考你的程度校正難度。

of the puzzles to your expertise.

因為我們想要問題難一點。

Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.

這些是暗藏陷阱的問題，因為你第一個直覺反應

These are tricky puzzles,

會說是"tulip"，接著你會覺得不對。

because your first instinct is to say "tulip."

對吧? 所以這些問題已經參考你們程度調得更難了。

And then you have to unstick yourself.

因為我們想要讓謎題變難。而我待會告訴你們原因。

Right?

現在，這裡有另一個例子。

So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise,

有人想嘗試嗎?這比較難。

because we want this to be difficult,

(聽眾:Embark) BS:耶，哇，好的。

and I'll tell you why, momentarily.

所以，而這也是一個困難的問題。

Now, here's another example.

你會說”kambar” 接著你必定會說，”maker”，

Anyone? This is much more difficult.

說完那些後，你會覺得說的不對。

Audience member: Embark. BS: Yeah. Wow! OK.

好的，所以現在你有30分鐘來解決這15個謎題。

So, yeah, so this is, again, difficult.

現在，我的問題是

You'll say "kamber," then you'll go, "maker," and all that,

就結果而言，

and then you can unstick yourself.

就解開的謎題數而言，

So you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.

坐在”駕駛座”上的你們

Now, the question we're asking here is, in terms of the outcome --

會解開更多謎題嗎，

and it comes in the number of puzzles solved --

因為你們可以將一切置於掌控，決定喝哪種茶，

will you in the driver's seat end up solving more puzzles

或是你們(乘客)會表現的比較好，

because you are in control,

就解開的謎題數而言?

you could decide which tea you would choose,

我們將系統性的呈現，

or would you be better off,

透過一系列的研究，

in terms of the number of puzzles solved?

就是你們，這些”乘客”，

And, systemically, what we will show,

即使你們無法選擇要喝哪種茶，

across a series of studies,

但所解開的謎題數將比你們這些"駕駛者"更多。

is that you, the passengers,

我們也觀察到其它現像，

even though the tea was picked for you at random,

也就是，你們(駕駛座的人)所解開的謎題數不但比較少，

will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.

而且放在解謎題上的精力也較少。

We also observe another thing,

沒那麼的努力，沒那麼有毅力，等等。

and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,

你怎麼知道呢?

you're also putting less juice into the task -- less effort,

恩，我們有兩個客觀的評估方式。

you're less persistent, and so on.

首先，你花在解謎的時間平均有多少?

How do we know that?

首先，你花在解謎的時間平均有多少?

Well, we have two objective measures.

和你們(這些乘客)相比，你們(這些駕駛)花較少的時間。

One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking

第二，你們有30分鐘解謎，

in attempting to solve these puzzles?

你們會用掉30分鐘嗎，或著你們會在30分鐘之前放棄呢?

You will spend less time compared to you.

你們會用掉30分鐘嗎，或著你們會在30分鐘之前放棄呢?

Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these;

和你們(這些乘客)相比，你們(這些駕駛)容易提前放棄。

are you taking the entire 30 minutes

所以你們(這些駕駛)放在解謎上的精力較少，所以結果是:

or are you giving up before the 30 minutes elapse?

所解開的謎題數較少。

You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse,

現在，讓我們來看看，為什麼會這樣呢?

compared to you.

而且在什麼情況下，我們會看到這樣的結果，

So you're putting in less juice,

也就是，乘客相較於駕駛會表現得比較好?

and therefore, the outcome: fewer puzzles solved.

也就是，乘客相較於駕駛會表現得比較好?

That brings us now to: why does this happen?

這都和當你們面臨(問題)所產生的INCA有關係。

And under what situations -- when -- would we see this pattern of results

這是一個縮寫，代表著

where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes,

當你們作完決定後，你們所得到的結果蘊含的特性。

compared to the driver?

所以，如果你在這個猜謎實驗中檢視一下這些(特性)，

It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.

(你會發現)股票投資市場也可能會出現這些特性，

It's an acronym that stands for the nature of the feedback you're getting

很反覆無常，醫療情境也有這些(特性)--

after you made the decision.

(做完決定後)都立即得知結果。

So if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task --

不管你解多少謎題，你都會立即知道是否解開謎題。

it could happen in investing in the stock market,

沒錯吧? 第二，所得到的結果是消極的。

very volatile out there,

回想一下，當初所設計的謎題難度，

it could be the medical situation --

這些問題都是用來難倒你的。

the feedback here is immediate.

而且這情況可能會發生在醫界。

You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.

例如，一開始所提的醫療過程，

Right? Second, it is negative.

狀況未好轉前一切都是消極的。

Remember, the deck was stacked against you,

沒錯吧? 這也可能會發生在股票市場。

in terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.

變動的股市常發生沒獲利情況，而這也是立即性的。

And this can happen in the medical domain.

而所有這些例子中(做完決定後)產生的結果都是具體的。

For example, very early on in the treatment,

這些結果並不模菱兩可; 你都可知道是否解開謎題。

things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.

現在，再提一點，除了這種立即的特性，

Right? It can happen in the stock market.

消極的特性，這種具體的特性外，

Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback, it is also immediate.

你還會感受到一種背負感。

And the feedback in all these cases is concrete, it's unambiguous;

你要對所做的決定負責。

you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.

所以你會做什麼呢?

Now, the added one,

你會將精力放在先前的選擇。

apart from this immediacy, negative, this concreteness --

那麼你知道嗎? 你會說什麼嗎?我當初應該選另一種茶的。

now you have a sense of agency.

(笑聲)

You were responsible for your decision.

那會讓你懷疑自己的決定，

So what do you do?

降低做決定的信心，

You focus on the foregone option.

降低在表現時的信心，

You say, you know what?

就解謎上的表現。

I should have chosen the other tea.

因此放較少的精力在問題上，

(Laughter)

相較之下，(駕駛)解開謎題數也就較少，導致不佳結果。

That casts your decision in doubt,

而且如果你思考一下，這現象也可能發生在醫界。

reduces the confidence you have in the decision,

沒錯吧? 例如，坐在駕駛座的病人。

the confidence you have in the performance,

(付出的)精力變得較少，這意味著在維持體態上

the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.

較不那麼努力，較不積極在治療的過程，

And therefore less juice into the task,

這情況常被人提到。你們也許不會那麼做。

fewer puzzles solved

因此，有好幾次你們會面臨到INCA的狀況，

and less favorable outcomes compared to you folks.

當結果立即產生，出現消極情況，

And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it, right?

產生具體的結果，你感到背負感，

A patient in the driver's seat, for example.

從中得知，如果你坐在乘客座，處境會比較好，

Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself

讓其他人駕駛。

less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,

我從嚴肅的話題起頭。

which is what is often advocated.

我從嚴肅的話題起頭。

You probably wouldn't do that.

我想要以愉快的內容作結。

And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,

(太太的癌症治療)到目前已經五年多了，

when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative, concrete

好消息是，感謝上帝，

and you have the sense of agency,

癌症的症狀仍然在減輕中。

where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat

所以，這一切到最後都蠻好的。

and have someone else drive.

但有件事我沒有提到，

Now, I started off on a somber note.

一開始的就醫過程，

I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.

我太太和我決定坐在乘客的座位上，

It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,

而那產生截然不同的結果，

and the good news, thank God, is that the cancer is still in remission.

我們帶著平靜的心情 "出發"，

So it all ends well.

將注意力放在身體的復原上。

But one thing I didn't mention was that very early on into her treatment,

我們讓醫生做所有的決定，

my wife and I decided that we would take the passenger's seat.

讓醫生坐在駕駛座。

And that made so much of a difference

謝謝。

in terms of the peace of mind that came with that;

(掌聲)

we could focus on her recovery.

We let the doctors make all the decisions

and take the driver's seat.

Thank you.

(Applause)