I'm a believer in global warming,

我是位信徒。我相信全球暖化，

and my record is good

而在這個議題上

on the subject.

我的記錄良好。

But my subject

我的記錄良好。

is national security.

但我要談論的主題

We have to get off of oil purchased

是國家安全。

from the enemy.

我們必須停止從敵人那

I'm talking about OPEC oil.

購買石油。

And let me take you back

我指的是石油輸出國組織的石油。

100 years

讓我帶各位回到

to 1912.

100年前的

You're probably thinking that was my birth year.

1912年。

(Laughter)

各位可能會認為那是我出生的年代

It wasn't. It was 1928.

♪笑聲♪

But go back to 1912,

不是的，我出生於1928年。

100 years ago,

但回到1912年

and look at that point

100年前，

what we, our country, was faced with.

來看看當時

It's the same energy question

我們的國家所面臨的問題。

that you're looking at today,

是與今日我們所面臨的問題

but it's different sources of fuel.

是相同的，

A hundred years ago

只是是不一樣的燃料源。

we were looking at coal, of course,

100年前

and we were looking at whale oil

我們找煤炭，當然啦

and we were looking at crude oil.

我們也在尋找鯨油

At that point,

和原油。

we were looking for a fuel

在當時，

that was cleaner,

我們希望的燃料

it was cheaper,

是較乾淨、

and it wasn't ours though,

較便宜的，

it was theirs.

然而那不是我們的燃料，

So at that point, 1912,

那是他們的。

we selected crude oil over whale oil

在當時1912年，

and some more coal.

我們選擇了原油而不是鯨油

But as we moved on

以及再多點煤炭。

to the period now, 100 years later,

然而往前進

we're back really

到現在，也就是100年後，

at another decision point.

我們確實回到了

What is the decision point?

另一個決策點。

It's what we're going to use

決策點是什麼？

in the future.

就是我們未來要採用

So from here,

什麼燃料。

it's pretty clear to me,

所以從此刻

we would prefer to have

我相當的清楚，

cleaner, cheaper,

我們寧願採用

domestic, ours --

較乾淨、較便宜、

and we have that, we have that --

國內的、我們的--

which is natural gas.

我們有的--

So here you are,

也就是天然氣。

that the cost of all this to the world

來看看這裡，

is 89 million barrels of oil,

全球要為當時決策付出的代價

give or take a few barrels, every day.

是8千9百萬桶石油，

And the cost annually

這大約是每天的用量。

is three trillion dollars.

全年下來的成本

And one trillion of that

是3兆美元。

goes to OPEC.

其中有1兆

That has got to be stopped.

是付給石油輸出國組織。

Now if you look at the cost of OPEC,

一定要中止這樣局勢。

it cost seven trillion dollars --

如果觀察石油輸出國組織的成本，

on the Milken Institute study last year --

成本是7兆美元--

seven trillion dollars

根據米爾肯研究機構去年做的研究--

since 1976,

自從1976年來，

is what we paid for oil from OPEC.

7兆美元

Now that includes the cost of military

是我們從石油輸出國組織所支付的石油成本。

and the cost of the fuel both.

這包含軍事

But it's the greatest transfer of wealth,

以及燃料二種成本。

from one group to another

然而這是在人類歷史上

in the history of mankind.

財富最龐大的從一個組織轉移

And it continues.

到另一個組織。

Now when you look

而且還在持續進行中。

at where is the transfer of wealth,

當你在找

you can see here

財富移轉的地區時

that we have the arrows

你會注意到

going into the Mid-East

有個箭頭

and away from us.

從我們這裡

And with that,

指向中東地區。

we have found ourselves

有鑑於此，

to be the world's policemen.

我們發現自已

We are policing the world,

扮演起世界警察的角色。

and how are we doing that?

我們在維護世界治安，

I know the response to this.

我們怎麼維護世界的治安呢？

I would bet there aren't 10 percent of you in the room

我知道我們如何做的。

that know how many aircraft carriers there are in the world.

我打賭在座不到10%的人

Raise your hand if you think you know.

知道全世界有幾艘航空母艦。

There are 12.

認為自己知道答案的人舉手。

One is under construction by the Chinese

有12艘。

and the other 11 belong to us.

有1艘中國在建造當中

Why do we have 11 aircraft carriers?

另11艘是我們的。

Do we have a corner on the market?

為何要有11艘航空母艦？

Are we smarter than anybody else? I'm not sure.

是因為我們獨占了這個市場嗎?

If you look at where they're located --

還是我們比其它人聰明嗎？我不確定。

and on this slide it's the red blobs on there --

如果觀察航空母艦停泊地--

there are five that are operating in the Mid-East,

這張幻燈片上的紅點標示區--

and the rest of them are in the United States.

有5艘在中東執勤，

They just move back to the Mid-East and those come back.

其餘的在美國。

So actually most of the 11 we have

5艘是剛派遣過去的，這些是剛回來的。

are tied up in the Mid-East.

因此事實上大部分這11艘航空母艦

Why? Why are they in the Mid-East?

都跟中東地區情事相關聯。

They're there to control,

為什麼？航空母艦為何要駐紮中東地區呢？

keep the shipping lanes open

因為要控制當地，

and make oil available.

確保航道通行

And the United States uses about 20 million barrels a day,

以及石油的取得。

which is about 25 percent of all the oil used

美國每天用油量約2千萬桶，

everyday in the world.

約佔全世界每天用油量的

And we're doing it with four percent of the population.

25﹪。

Somehow that doesn't seem right.

而且要4﹪的人口來從事這件事。

That's not sustainable.

這似乎有點怪怪的。

So where do we go from here?

這並不是長遠之計。

Does that continue?

所以我們要怎麼辦呢？

Yes, it's going to continue.

那會持續下去？

The slide you're looking at here

沒錯，狀況會持續下去。

is 1990 to 2040.

這張幻燈片你們看到

Over that period

的是1990到2040年。

you are going to double your demand.

在這期間

And when you look at what we're using the oil for,

對油的需求量會變雙倍。

70 percent of it

來看看我們應用石油在哪些領域，

is used for transportation fuel.

70﹪

So when somebody says,

是用在交通運輸上。

"Let's go more nuclear,

因此當有人提倡，

let's go wind, let's go solar,"

“用核能、

fine; I'm for anything American,

風能、太陽能吧“，

anything American.

對我來說用什麼都好；只要是美國做的我都贊成，

But if you're going to do anything

是美國自己生產的都行。

about the dependency on foreign oil,

然而如果是以仰賴

you have to address transportation.

國外燃料為出發點，

So here we are

那麼就必須滿足運輸使用燃料的問題。

using 20 million barrels a day --

我們

producing eight, importing 12,

每天用掉2千萬桶石油--

and from the 12,

自產8百萬桶，進口1千兩百萬桶，

five comes from OPEC.

這1千兩百萬桶之中，

When you look at the biggest user and the second largest user,

有5百萬桶來至石油輸出國組織。

we use 20 million barrels

來看看世界第一及第二用油國家，

and the Chinese use 10.

我們用2千萬桶

The Chinese have a little bit better plan --

中國用1千萬桶。

or they have a plan;

中國有較佳的規劃--

we have no plan.

或者說他們有了計劃；

In the history of America,

而我們沒有。

we've never had an energy plan.

由美國歴史中看來，

We don't even realize the resources

我們從來沒有過有能源規劃。

that we have available to us.

我們甚至不知道

If you take the last 10 years

自己有什麼可用的資源。

and bring forward,

如果把過去10年

you've transferred to OPEC a trillion dollars.

拿出來計算，

If you go forward the next 10 years

我們已經付了1兆美元給石油輸出國組織。

and cap the price of oil at 100 dollars a barrel,

如果再往未來估算10年

you will pay 2.2 trillion.

並限制每桶石油價格為100美元，

That's not sustainable either.

要支付的費用為2.2兆美元。

But the days of cheap oil are over.

這不也不是長久之計。

They're over.

但廉價石油的時代已經結束了。

They make it very clear to you,

時代結束了。

the Saudis do,

他們很清楚的向你表示，

they have to have 94 dollars a barrel

沙烏地表示，

to make their social commitments.

油價必須每桶來到94美元

Now I had people in Washington last week told me,

他們才要履行供應的社會責任。

he said, "The Saudis can produce the oil

上周一位華盛頓的人士跟我說，

for five dollars a barrel.

“沙烏地生產石油

That has nothing to do with it.

每桶成本是5美元。

It's what they have to pay for

那根本無法可管，

is what we are going to pay for oil."

也就是油價不管多高

There is no free market for oil.

全民都必須照單全收”。

The oil is priced off the margin.

石油沒有所謂的自由市場機制。

And the OPEC nations

油價是以利潤定價。

are the ones that price the oil.

油價是由石油輸出國組織

So where are we headed from here?

制定的。

We're headed to natural gas.

因此從這個局勢我們被導向何處呢？

Natural gas will do everything

我們被導向天然氣。

we want it to do.

天然氣可以幫

It's 130 octane fuel.

我們解決每個問題。

It's 25 percent cleaner than oil.

天然氣是130辛烷值燃料。

It's ours, we have an abundance of it.

它比石油清潔25﹪。

And it does not require a refinery.

是我們自有的，我們有豐富的儲藏量。

It comes out of the ground at 130 octane.

它不需要煉油廠再提煉。

Run it through the separator and you're ready to use it.

從地底開採出來就是130辛烷值了。

It's going to be very simple for us to use.

通過分離器後就可以用了。

It's going to be simple to accomplish this.

對我們而言使用上將會相當的便利。

You're going to find, and I'll tell you in just a minute,

很簡單就能做到。

what you're looking for to make it happen.

你們會得到你們殷切期盼的解答，

But here you can look at the list.

而我待會將馬上向你們說明。

Natural gas will fit all of those.

先來看看這張圖表，

It will replace or be able to be used for that.

天然氣可以解決所有這些問題。

It's for power generation, transportation,

它可以取代或做為可適用性燃料。

it's peaking fuel, it's all those.

可用在發電、交通、

Do we have enough natural gas?

燃值高、這些都是它的優勢。

Look at the bar on the left. It's 24 trillion.

我們有足夠的天然氣儲藏量嗎？

It's what we use a year.

看左邊這個長條圖。24兆

Go forward

是我們一年的用量。

and the estimates that you have

再下來

from the EIA and onto the industry estimates --

看到美國能源信息署的

the industry knows what they're talking about --

估計以及工業估計--

we've got 4,000 trillion cubic feet

該工業非常清楚自己在講什麼--

of natural gas that's available to us.

將近4千兆立方尺

How does that translate

的天然氣量供我們使用。

to barrels of oil equivalent?

這大約等於

It would be three times

多少桶的原油呢？

what the Saudis claim they have.

是沙烏地所宣稱

And they claim they have 250 billion barrels of oil,

擁有石油量的三倍。

which I do not believe.

他們宣稱擁有2千5百億桶原油，

I think it's probably 175 billion barrels.

我不相信。

But anyway, whether they say they're right or whatever,

我認為應該只有1千750億桶。

we have plenty of natural gas.

但不論他們說的正不正確，

So I have tried to target

我們有很富豐的天然氣。

on where we use the natural gas.

所以我要著眼

And where I've targeted

在天然氣的應用方向。

is on the heavy-duty trucks.

我的目標是

There are eight million of them.

重型卡車。

You take eight million trucks --

有8百萬輛卡車。

these are 18-wheelers --

8百萬輛卡車--

and take them to natural gas,

18個輪子的卡車--

reduce carbon by 30 percent,

採用天然氣的話，

it is cheaper

可以減少30﹪的二氧化碳，

and it will cut our imports

它價格較便宜

three million barrels.

而且可以降低3百萬桶

So you will cut 60 percent off of OPEC

的石油進口量。

with eight million trucks.

如此一來，以8百萬輛的卡車就可以減少從石油輸出國組織

There are 250 million vehicles in America.

進口石油量的60﹪。

So what you have

全美有2億5千萬輛的汽車。

is natural gas is the bridge fuel,

因此

is the way I see it.

天然氣是銜接燃料，

I don't have to worry

我是這麼認為的。

about the bridge to where at my age.

以我的年紀，我不必擔心

(Laughter)

這座橋樑銜接到什麼燃料。

That's your concern.

♪眾笑♪

But when you look at the natural gas we have

那是你們要擔心的。

it could very well be

然而檢視我們擁有的天然氣，

the bridge to natural gas,

它會是相當好的

because you have plenty of natural gas.

橋接燃料，

But as I said, I'm for anything American.

因為它的蘊藏量豐富。

Now let me take you -- I've been a realist --

然而就如我之前說的，只要是美國自產的我都接受。

I went from theorist early to realist.

現在讓我來帶領你們--我一直是唯實論者--

I'm back to theorist again.

我從早期的理論者變成現唯實論者。

If you look at the world,

現在我又回到理論學派。

you have methane hydrates in the ocean

看看這世界，

around every continent.

各大洲被含甲烷水合物

And here you can see methane,

的海洋包圍著。

if that's the way you're going to go,

甲烷隨處可見，

that there's plenty of methane --

假使要應用甲烷水合物，

natural gas is methane,

那麼那是相當的富足的燃料--

methane and natural gas are interchangeable --

天然氣就是甲烷，

but if you decide

二者是可以互相交換的--

that you're going to use some methane --

然而如果你們決定

and I'm gone, so it's up to you --

要採用些甲烷--

but we do have

而我不在人世，因此決定權在你們--

plenty of methane hydrates.

但我們的確擁有

So I think I've made my point

相當豐富的甲烷水合物。

that we have to get on our own resources in America.

因此，我想我的論點已經很清楚了：

If we do --

我們要用美國自有的資源。

it's costing us a billion dollars a day for oil.

如果這麼做的話--

And yet, we have no energy plan.

我們一天用在石油的花費要10億美元。

So there's nothing going on

然而我們確沒有應變的能源規劃。

that impresses me

因此，

in Washington on that plan,

華府對於能源所做規劃，

other than I'm trying to focus

一點也沒有

on that eight million 18-wheelers.

比我專注於解決

If we could do that,

8百萬輛重型卡車的燃料所需來的實際。

I think we would take our first step

假定我們能夠這麼做的話，

to an energy plan.

我想我們就能向能源計劃

If we did, we could see

跨出第一步了。

that our own resources are easier to use

如果我們去做了，會了解

than anybody can imagine.

採用我們自有資源，會比任何人想像

Thank you.

要來的容易。

(Applause)

謝謝各位。

Chris Anderson: Thanks for that.

♪掌聲♪

So from your point of view,

克里斯·安德森：謝謝你的演說。

you had this great Pickens Plan

從你的觀點來看，