Our senses and brains can only process a fraction of the world.

我們的感官與大腦只能處理這個世界的片段資訊

So we have to use concepts and tools, to learn about the true nature of reality

所以我們必須使用概念與工具來學習何謂真實的本質

Technological progress not only widened our knowledge about the universe,

科技的進步，不僅僅是增廣了我們對於宇宙的理解，也讓我們警覺到令人不安的可能性

it also made us aware of unsettling possibilities.

在未來，甚至可能模擬整個宇宙

In the future, it might become possible to simulate entire universes.

但如果這是可能的，我們要怎麼知道這件事還沒有發生？

But if this is an option, how can we know that it's not already happened?

萬一，我們不是造物主，而是受造之物呢？

What if we are not creators, but creations?

我們可能不是真的，而我們甚至根本不知道這一點

Is it possible that we are not real, and we don't even know it?

如果我們目前對物理學的了解是對的

If our current understanding of physics is correct,

那要模擬整個宇宙數以兆兆計的東西是不可能的

Then, it's impossible to simulate the whole universe, with its trillions and trillions of things.

但其實我們也不用真的這麼做

But we don't actually need to, anyway.

我們只要有"足夠的"宇宙去愚弄我們的模擬當中的居民，讓他們認為自己是真的

We only need enough universe to fool the inhabitants of our simulation,

誰需要幾十億個星系？我們只要有一個能讓我們的實驗對象可以探索的空間就好了

into thinking that they're real.

這廣大的宇宙可能只是一個平面投影，而我們卻無從得知

Who needs billions of galaxies?

那麼像是細胞跟細菌這樣的小東西又如何呢？

We only need the space our subjects are allowed to explore.

我們並不真的需要他們。當你使用顯微鏡時，你所見的可以被即時創造

The vast universe could just be a flat projection, and they would have no way to know.

原子也一樣。你現在所坐的椅子也不必模擬夸特（10*10^15）個原子

What about small things like cells or bacteria?

我們只要在它最外面的表面，而裡面可能是中的，直到你打算把它打破

We don't really need them.

你的身體可能會覺得它裝滿了像是泡泡狀的東西，但其實直到你打開它之前都是空的

When you use a microscope, what you see could be instantly created.

我們模擬的最低需求，只是我們虛擬人類的知覺

Same with atoms the chair you're sitting on right now does not need to be

我們的實驗品只需要認為這個模擬是真的

simulated with quadrillions of atoms.

好了，所以我們是被模擬出來的嗎？

We just need the outermost layer of it,

嗯，可能。但是還有一些條件必須滿足

it might be empty inside, until you decide to break it open.

很明顯地，我們在這個主題上並不是權威，所以請對我們的話持保留態度。

Your body might feel like it's filled with bubbly things, but it might be empty, until you open it.

基Nick Bostrom的原始模擬參數的修改版本，我們有五個要給你的假設

The minimum requirement for our simulation, is only the consciousness of our virtual humans.

如果他們是真的，那麼親愛的觀眾，你是生活在模擬環境中

Our subjects just need to think the simulation is real.

假設1：知覺是可以模擬的

Okay, so are we being simulated?

沒人知道知覺是什麼。為了討論方便，讓我們假設你能夠由模擬大腦來產生知覺

Well, maybe, but there are a few conditions that need to be met.

大腦非常複雜

Obviously, we have no authority over this topic, so please take everything we say with a grain of salt.

如果你把突觸之間每次交作用計算為一次操作，那麼你的那腦每秒會執行10的17次方

Based on a modified version of the original simulation argument by Nick Bostrom,

也就是1京（萬兆）次操作

we have five assumptions for you.

讓我們慷慨一點地假設，我們需要10的20次方個操作來模擬人類知覺一秒

If they're true, you dear viewer are living in a simulation.

如果我們不只是想要模擬一個人，而是要一次模擬出整個人類歷史，讓我們可以跳過來跳過去

Assumption one,

假設我們要模擬2千億個人，平均壽命是50年

it's possible to simulate consciousness

一年有3千萬秒乘以50年乘以2千億人乘以10^20方個

Nobody knows what consciousness is.

操作

For the sake of argument, let's assume that you could generate consciousness by simulating a brain.

所以我們需要一台電腦，能每秒處理一百萬兆兆兆個

Brains are pretty complex.

操作

If you count every interaction between synapses as one operation,

比可觀測宇宙中的所有恆星還多

your brain runs at about ten to the power of seventeen, for one hundred million billion operations, per second.

像這樣的電腦是不可能的

Let's generously assume we need ten to the power of twenty operations,

除非，他不是不可能

to simulate one second of human consciousness.

第二個假設，科技進步不會在近期內停止

But, we don't want to simulate just one human...

00:03:51,030 --> 00:03:55,610 如果我們假設科技進步會以到目前為止相似的型式持續

We want to simulate all of human history at once, so we can skip around.

那麼在某個時間點，一定會有跨星系的居民擁有無限的運算能力

Let's say we want to simulate two hundred billion humans, with an average life span of fifty years.

有著如此先進科技水平的人類，我們已經無法分別他們跟神之間的不同

One year has thirty million seconds times fifty years

一台能處理一百萬兆兆兆個操作的電腦是一件很難的事情，但是實際上電腦來說有概念能處理

times two hundred billion humans

套娃腦是一種理論上的舉經結構，由幾十億個環繞恆星的零件組成，以恆星的輻射為食

times ten to the power of twenty operations.

這樣規模的電腦會有足夠的能量即使不能在同一時間能模擬出數百萬人，也能模擬出好幾千人

So we need a computer able to handle million, trillion, trillion, trillion operations per second.

其他科技像是高端未來量子電腦可能大大地減少大小，

More operations than there are stars in the observable universe.

使夠得能做到如此結構只有大如城市，或者甚至更小

The computer like this is just impossible.

但前提是還是得要有人來造電腦

Except, maybe it isn't.

假設三，先進的種族不會摧毀他們自己

Assumption two,

如果有一個時間點，所有的種族都摧毀了他們自己，那麼整個討論就到此為止了

technological progress will not stop anytime soon.

讓我們看向宇宙，你預期整個宇宙充滿了好幾百萬個外星種族

If we assume that technological progress continues in a similar fashion as it has so far,

但實際上我們什麼都沒看到。這個的理由可能是大過濾器

then there might be galaxy spanning civilizations, with unlimited computer power at some point.

大過濾器是生命必須要克服的障礙，像是核戰

Beings on a technology level so advanced, that we could barely distinguish them from god's.

小行星，氣候變遷或是黑洞產生器。如果生命本身就帶有自我毀滅性

A computer that can handle a million trillion, trillion, trillion operations is serious business,

那麼就沒有模擬了

but there are actually concepts for computers, which could handle this.

我們在我們的費米悖論影片中有更詳細的說明

The Matrioshka Brain, is the theoretical megastructure,

假設4：超先進種族想要進行模擬

made up of billions of parts orbiting a star, feeding on its radiation.

當我們在討論超人類種族時，我們其實我們不知道我們跟什麼打交道

A computer of this scale, would have enough power to simulate many thousands,

要說我們知道什麼生物可以跟神一樣強大，實在是太過自大了

if not millions of humanities, at the same time.

想像一下生活在遊樂場旁有一隻最聰明的螞蟻，他很好奇人類在做什麼，所以你嘗試解釋？

Other technologies, like high-end future quantum computers might lower the size drastically,

不幸的，螞蟻就是不能了解

so it might be possible to do this with a structure the size of a large city, or even smaller.

雲霄飛車，排隊，假日和趣味對一隻螞蟻的生活與生命都是沒有意義的

But, only if there's still someone around to build the computer.

我們跟超人類之間的關係，跟他們相比

Assumption three,

我們就是螞蟻。為了取樂或是科學進行模擬對他們來說可能是一個荒唐可笑的想法

advanced civilizations don't destroy themselves.

但是如果他們確實想要因為某個理由進行模擬，而且

If there is a point at which all civilizations destroyed themselves, this whole discussion ends here.

假設1, 2, 3都為真。那麼你生存在模擬環境中的可能性便不為零

Looking into space, you'd expect to universe filled, with millions of alien civilizations,

假設5，如果有許多模擬，而你可能身處在一個模擬當中

but we see nobody.

如果有被模擬的種族

the reason for this might be, Great Filters.

在我們假設超人類能夠取得限量的運算能量之後，他們的數量應該會有很多

Great Filters are barriers life has to overcome, like nuclear war,

所以如果他們能執行模擬，那麼要執行數百萬或是數十億個模擬也應該很方便

asteroids, climate change or a black hole generator.

如果有幾十億個模擬的宇宙，那麼可能會有好幾兆兆個被模擬的知覺生物，

If life is inherently self-destructive, then there are no simulations.

這表示有大量各式各樣的曾經存在過知覺生物被模擬

We explain this in more detail, in our Fermi Paradox video.

所以對於每一個存在的肉身生物，都有十億個被模擬的對象存在

Assumption four,

由於我們沒有方法知道我們是否被模擬

super advanced civilizations, want to run simulations.

在這樣的情況下，你成為九百九十九百万模擬人之一的機率相當高。

When we speak of posthuman civilizations, we don't know what we're dealing with

因此你認為的真實可能完全不是真實的

To think we know what beings as powerful as gods want, is pretty arrogant.

你真的是

Imagine the smartest ant on earth living next to an amusement park,

被模擬的嗎

It's curious about what humans are up to, so you try to explain.

以上有內容是基於許多的我們目前還無法驗證的假設

Unfortunately, the ant just doesn't understand.

所以許多科學家不同意這整個思想實驗

The concept of rollercoasters and standing in lines and holidays and fun,

所以不要燒掉你的房子以測試是否會有故障發生。如果你是被模擬的，這對你說不會有多少改變

doesn't make sense to an ant living an ant life.

你可能在一個小小的行星上，穿越的永恆的虛無，或是

It's the same with us and a posthuman being,

在一個電腦的模擬當中，你的存在並不會變得那麼可怕或是怪異

compared to them, we are ants.

所有我們能希望做的是，試著過得更好的生活與有好的時光

Running simulations for fun or science, might be an absurdly stupid idea to them.

而且希望我們若真的是在一個超級電腦中的模擬

But, if they do want to run simulations for whatever reasons and assumptions one, two, three are true too,

沒有人不小心踩掉電源線

then the chances are not zero that you are living inside a simulation.

喔

Assumption five,

喔喔，不，我想我剛剛才中斷了一場模擬的電源

if there are a lot of simulations, you are probably inside a simulation.

但是如果那並不重要，如果我們現在就在一場模擬，如果你就是被模擬的？

if there are simulated civilizations, It's likely that there are a lot of them.

00:08:18,190 --> 00:08:23,579 請檢視VSause 3更深入的討論，點選這裡欣賞他的影片以及訂閱他的頻道

After all, we assume that post human beings have access to practically unlimited computing power.

為什麼你還在這裡？VSAUCE3看影片吧，而且訂閱我們我們保證你的時間花得值得

So if they run simulations, it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them.

If there are billions of simulated universes, there are probably trillions and trillions of

simulated conscious beings.

which would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings that will ever have existed,

are simulated.

So, for every conscious being made of flesh, a billion simulated ones exists.

Since we have no way of knowing if we are simulated or not,

in this case, the chances of you being one of the nine hundred and ninety nine million

nine hundred and ninety nine thousand nine hundred ninety nine simulated ones, are pretty high.

So, what you consider reality, might not be real at all

You really might be...

simulated.

All of this is based on a lot of assumptions that we can't really test right now

So many scientists disagree with this whole thought experiment.

So don't burn your house down to test if there will be glitches.

If you are simulated, not that much changes for you

you might be on a small planet speeding through eternal nothingness,

or a simulation inside a computer.

your existence does not become more or less scary and bizarre.

All we can hope to do is try to live good lives, and have a good time.

And hope that if we actually are simulations in a supercomputer,

nobody trips over the power cable.

Oh, oh, oh no, I think I just unplugged the simulation

But what if that doesn't matter, what if we are in one right now? What if you are simulated?

Jake, over at Vsauce3 is looking into that.

Click here to watch his video and subscribe to his channel.

Why are you still here? go over to Vsauce3 watch the video and subscribe,

we promise, it's worth your time...