The best minds in the best institutions

眾所皆知 未來難以預測

generally get it wrong.

頂尖研究機構中的佼佼者

This is in technology. This is in the area of politics,

還常會犯錯

where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong.

技術領域有過前例 (1958年IBM總裁：電腦根本沒有市場) 政治領域亦然

And it's clearly in the area of finance.

連智者、中情局、軍情六處 都會出錯 (07年政論名嘴：歐巴馬總統夢無望)

With institutions established to think about the future,

財經領域更是前科累累 (07年IMF: 整體風險前景似乎比過去半年低)

the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn't see what was coming.

有些機構的工作是預測未來

Over 20,000 economists

但IMF,BIS或金融穩定論壇 都做不到

whose job it is, competitive entry to get there,

超過兩萬名經濟學家一起動腦

couldn't see what was happening.

應該想得出辦法脫離困境

Globalization is getting more complex.

卻看不清前路

And this change is getting more rapid.

全球化愈來愈複雜

The future will be more unpredictable.

越來越迅速

Urbanization, integration,

未來會變得更難以預料

coming together, leads to a new renaissance.

都市化 區域整合 (全球化)

It did this a thousand years ago.

將一起型塑新的文藝復興時代

The last 40 years have been extraordinary times.

就像一千多年前發生過的一樣

Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years.

過去40年意義非凡

It took from the Stone Age to achieve that.

平均壽命提升了大約25年

Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population,

這是從石器時代累積至今的成果

despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period.

收入提升 大部分人口生活改善

And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on Earth.

但人口數同時也增加了20億

A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential

文盲人數 從全人口的1/2下降至1/4

for innovation, for development.

這是難得的機會 充滿無限可能

But there is an underbelly.

創新與發展皆大有可為

There are two Achilles' heels of globalization.

但全球化也有罩門

There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality --

兩個致命的弱點

those that are left out, those that feel angry,

一個是日益嚴重的不平等 (國家間的不平等)

those that are not participating. Globalization

那些沒有享受到全球化益處的人

has not been inclusive.

憤怒漸增 因為

The second Achilles' heel is complexity --

全球化的果實不是人人有份

a growing fragility, a growing brittleness.

第二個是複雜性

What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else.

全球體制越來越脆弱易碎

This is a systemic risk, systemic shock.

遷一髮而動全局

We've seen it in the financial crisis. We've seen it in the pandemic flu.

這是系統性的風險

It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against.

金融風暴席捲、流感蔓延 都是明證

A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology.

唯有堅強的韌性才能讓我們生存

There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement

這樣的發展大部分起因於科技

in what you can get for the same price

科技日新月異 以後只會發展更快

in computing by 2030.

付出同樣的成本 資訊處裡的速度

That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been.

在2030年會快100萬倍

It will continue.

這是過去20年的經驗

Our computers, our systems will be as primitive

這種趨勢還會持續下去

as the Apollo's are for today.

未來 今天的電腦系統 會顯得粗糙

Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine.

會像今天看阿波羅太空梭一樣

Our mobile phones are more powerful than

現在的手機已經超越太空梭引擎

some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago.

還不只如此 現在的手機

So what will this do?

比20年前某些最強的電腦還強大

It will create huge opportunities in technology.

這代表什麼？

Miniaturization as well.

無數機會有待科技業者開發

There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies,

微型化也是一樣

in our brains, and in the air.

看不見的東西現在也充滿機會

This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica.

遍佈在人體、人腦和空氣中

This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential,

這隻塵蟎 是奈米科技的複製品

not least in the area of medicine.

老調新唱的能力 可以激發潛能

This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford,

在醫學或任何其他領域都是如此

from an embryonic stem cell.

這個幹細胞 是在牛津發展而成的

We can develop any part of the body.

利用胚胎幹細胞

Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin --

可以培育出身體的任何部位

able to replicate parts of the body.

以後 我們可以用自己的皮膚

Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine.

來複製身體其他的部位

I don't think there will be a Special Olympics long after 2030,

這是再生醫學亟待開發的領域

because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body.

身障奧運會2030年之後可能停辦

But the question is, "Who will have it?"

因為任何生理上的損傷都能修復

The other major development is going to be

但問題是「誰能享有這一切？」

in the area of what can happen in genetics.

另一個重要發展

The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified,

是基因領域的發展

something which goes three times faster,

我們有能力把老鼠的基因改造 (比火車頭還厲害？超級鼠 vs 一般鼠)

lasts for three times longer, we could produce,

讓牠跑得比一般老鼠快三倍 (後面：一般鼠 前面：超級鼠) (時速：20公尺/分鐘)

as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years,

壽命比一般老鼠長三倍

using about the same amount of food.

活到相當於人類80歲的年齡

But will this only be available for the super rich,

卻只要用同樣份量的食物餵養 (一般鼠出局)

for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics?

(總距離：0.2公里) 但是 能享受這些益處的

Will only those that are able to afford it

只有富人嗎？ 這是新的優生學嗎？

be able to be this super race of the future?

只有那些負擔得起的人

(Laughter)

能在未來成為超級種族嗎？(一小時後 超級鼠耐力依舊...)

So the big question for us is,

(笑聲)

"How do we manage this technological change?"

所以當前最大的問題是

How do we ensure that it creates

「我們如何因應科技上的改變？」

a more inclusive technology,

我們如何確保 在未來

a technology which means

能有人人可利用的科技

that not only as we grow older,

這樣的科技

that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support

不只在我們年歲漸長時 (人口老化是歐洲的最大問題)

the populations of the future?

讓我們更有智慧 也讓我們有能力

One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements

扶養未來的人口

will be moving from population pyramids

眾多進步中 最顯著的例子

to what we might term population coffins.

就是人口金字塔 (1950到2030年義大利人口結構圖)

There is unlikely to be a pension

可能會變成所謂的人口棺材

or a retirement age in 2030.

退休金或是退休年齡

These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West.

在2030年都可能不復存在

The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper

這些觀念 東西方都覺得不合時宜

type of new pyramids

最戲劇的改變是 (1970至2030年 中國人口結構圖)

that will take place in China and in many other countries.

摩天大樓式的新金字塔

So forget about retirements if you're young.

在中國跟其他許多國家出現

Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it's going to be going.

因此別期待退休了 年輕人

Of course, migration will become even more important.

別指望退休金 多想想人生的方向

The war on talent, the need to attract people

當然 移民會變得更重要

at all skill ranges,

人才爭奪戰中 網羅的對象

to push us around in our wheelchairs,

各種專長的人才都包括

but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital.

需要推輪椅的看護

The employment in the rich countries

也需要經濟導航者。創意將是關鍵

will go down from about 800

就業狀況 在富裕國家 (就業人口預測)

to about 700 million of these people.

會從8億人

This would imply a massive leap in migration.

降到7億人

So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today,

這表示移民人數會大增

of migration, will be turned on their head,

所以排外人士

as we search for people to help us sort out

對移民的擔憂 必須改變

our pensions and our economies in the future.

因為我們需要人力 來解決

And then, the systemic risks.

退休金以及未來經濟的問題

We understand that these will become much more virulent,

再來 是系統性風險

that what we see today

我們了解 這些風險將會日益嚴重

is this interweaving of societies, of systems,

今天看到的

fastened by technologies and hastened by just-in-time management systems.

是息息相關的社會體系

Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility.

透過科技相連 經由管理加強整合

The collapse in biodiversity,

自掃門前雪 只會讓大局無人主持

climate change, pandemics, financial crises:

生物多樣性遭破壞

these will be the currency that we will think about.

氣候變遷、流行疾病與金融風暴

And so a new awareness will have to arise,

都是大局中不容小覷的影響因素

of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves,

因此我們要有全新的體悟

in a new way, and come together as a community

學習如何處理問題 如何動員人力

to manage systemic risk.

用新方法 而且要通力合作

It's going to require innovation.

來管理系統性風險

It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization

這需要創意

could also be its downfall.

需要理解 全球化的成果

This could be our best century ever because of the achievements,

也可能使它垮臺

or it could be our worst.

21世紀可以是盛世 因為成就輝煌

And of course we need to worry about the individuals,

也可能是最糟糕的世紀

particularly the individuals that feel that they've

當然 我們不能忽略個人

been left out in one way or another.

尤其是那些

An individual, for the first time in the history of humanity,

覺得被遺棄的人

will have the capacity, by 2030,

在人類歷史上 (生物性危險物品)

to destroy the planet, to wreck everything,

2030年 個人將首度有能力

through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen.

毀滅地球 破壞一切

How do we begin to weave these tapestries together?

比如說 利用新創造的生物病原

How do we think about complex systems in new ways?

我們要如何把這些片段連接起來？

That will be the challenge of the scholars,

如何用新思維檢視複雜的系统？

and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future.

這個挑戰 不只學者們首當其衝

The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now.

也是所有關心未來的人要思考的

We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized.

面對未來 我們要及早準備

It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring.

世界的治理架構已經陳腐過時 (誰來治理？)

We have to develop a new way of managing the planet,

無法應付全球化帶來的挑戰

collectively, through collective wisdom.

我們必須找出新方法來管理地球

We know, and I know from my own experience,

同心協力 集思廣益

that amazing things can happen,

你我都明白 經驗告訴我們

when individuals and societies come together

奇蹟會發生

to change their future.

如果個人和社會都決心

I left South Africa, and 15 years later,

改變他們的未來

after thinking I would never go back,

我離開南非15年後 (認為非洲民族議會將接管南非的是癡人說夢)

I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela.

改變原本絕不再回去的決定 (1987年柴契爾夫人發言)

This was a miracle. We can create miracles,

很榮幸地成為曼德拉政府的一員

collectively, in our lifetime.

這就是奇蹟 我們可以創造奇蹟

It is vital that we do so.

同心協力 在有生之年親見成果

It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED,

這樣的努力是改變未來的關鍵 (2030年必知的六大議題)

that the ideas that we think about

眾多講者在TED分享的想法

look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century,

我們自己腦袋裡的想法

and not one of eco-disaster and eco-collapse.

都是期盼 盼望21世紀是光榮盛世

Thank you. (Applause)

而不是生靈塗炭的黑暗世紀