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  • Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth

    譯者: Fong-Jyuan Ciou 審譯者: Marie Wu

  • has evaporated over the course of the last two years.

    13兆美元的財富,

  • We've questioned the future of capitalism.

    在過去兩年裡從市場上蒸發,

  • We've questioned the financial industry.

    我們質疑資本主義的未來,

  • We've looked at our government oversight.

    我們質問這些金融產業,

  • We've questioned where we're going.

    我們檢視政府的缺失,

  • And yet, at the same time,

    我們對未來的方向充滿迷茫;

  • this very well may be a seminal moment in American history,

    但同時,這也可能成為

  • an opportunity for the consumer to actually take control and guide us

    美國史上一個重要的里程碑。

  • to a new trajectory in America.

    對消費者而言,這是一個機會,

  • I'm calling this The Great Unwind.

    可以讓消費者去掌控並引導我們

  • (Laughter)

    走向一個新的軌道,

  • And the idea is a simple, simple idea,

    我稱它為"大解放 "。

  • which is the fact that the consumer has moved from a state of anxiety

    這是一個很簡單的概念,

  • to action.

    指的是消費者

  • Consumers who represent 72 percent of the GDP of America

    將心中的焦慮實際付諸行動的現象。

  • have actually started, just like banks and just like businesses,

    佔美國國內生產總值

  • to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage in daily life,

    72%的消費者已經開始採取行動,

  • to remove themselves from the liability and risk

    就像那些銀行、企業

  • that presents itself as they move forward.

    紛紛採取去槓桿化措施、解除財務槓桿的操作,

  • So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --

    消費者每天都在幫助自己

  • it's not about the consumer being in retreat.

    從負債與風險中脫離出來,

  • The consumer is empowered.

    繼續往前進。

  • To understand this, we'll step back and look at what's happened

    因此,為了暸解這部份,接下來我將強調這點,

  • over the last year and a half.

    這並不是說消費者正從市場上撤退,

  • So if you've been gone, this is the CliffsNotes

    而是他們的力量變強了。

  • on what's happened in the economy.

    為了暸解這個,我們稍微後退一步看看,

  • (Laughter)

    在過去一年半裡究竟發生了什麼事,

  • Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.

    如果你已經經歷過金融危機,就把這當作是重點整理,

  • Commodity prices are like this.

    以便了解我們的經濟到底發生了什麼事情,好嗎?

  • If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,

    (笑聲)

  • and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,

    失業率上升、房價暴跌、股市一片慘淡、

  • and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,

    商品價格也差不多如此,

  • do you plan vacations?

    假設你是一個管理預算的媽媽,

  • How do you buy?

    去年夏天油價一桶150美元,

  • What's your strategy in your household? Will the bailout work?

    現在則差不多在50到70美元間上下震盪,

  • We have national debt, Detroit, currency valuations, health care --

    你還會計畫旅遊嗎?你會如何分配預算?

  • all these issues facing us.

    你的家庭策略規劃又是什麼?

  • You put them all together, mix them up in a bouillabaisse,

    政府的緊急財政救援會見效嗎?美國國債、底特律失業問題、

  • and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time bomb.

    幣值、醫療保健等,所有的這些議題都不斷地衝擊著我們,

  • In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,

    如果把這些問題攪和在一起,

  • because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,

    你將發現消費者信心會像個定時炸彈一樣。

  • actually contributed a large part to the problem.

    讓我們回顧看看是什麼造成這次的金融危機,

  • This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.

    每天,我們所有的消費者所做的行為,

  • It took us 50 years

    都要對這個問題負上很大的責任。

  • to reach annual savings ratings of almost 10 percent.

    我稱它為50-20矛盾法則,

  • Fifty years.

    我們花了50年時間,

  • Do you know what this was right here? This was World War II.

    才達到接近10%的

  • Do you know why savings was so high?

    年存款率。50年耶...

  • There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets.

    你們知道在這裡發生了什麼事嗎?

  • What happened, though, over the course of the last 20 years,

    這是第二次世界大戰。各位知道為什麼存款率這麼高嗎?

  • we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.

    因為沒有東西可以買,除非你想引起別人注意,對吧?

  • Because we binged.

    那麼,在過去20年裡,究竟發生了什麼事,

  • We bought extra-large cars, supersized everything,

    讓我們的存款率從正10%變成負的存款率?

  • we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.

    因為我們過於狂熱,我們買超大尺寸的車、

  • All these things together basically created a factor

    購買過量或過大的東西、付錢醫治我們的「不寧腿症候群」,

  • where the consumer drove us headlong into the crisis

    當所有的事情都湊在一起時,

  • that we face today.

    多多少少造成了

  • The personal debt-to-income ratio basically went from 65 to 135 percent

    今日的金融危機。

  • in the span of about 15 years.

    個人的負債收入比

  • So consumers got over-leveraged.

    在過去的15年期間,從原來的65%

  • And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.

    攀升到現在的135%。

  • This is an absolutely staggering chart.

    消費者過度使用財務槓桿,

  • It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.

    當然銀行跟聯邦政府也是一樣。

  • And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon

    這是一張絕對會讓你吃驚的圖表,

  • that we are actually stepping forth and basically leveraging

    顯示財務槓桿從1919年到2009年的走向,

  • future education, future children in our households.

    最後你會看到一個特殊的現象,

  • So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,

    就是我們正在花未來的錢,

  • what you can see is, if you stack up dollar bills,

    我們將財務槓桿拉到未來,

  • first of all, 360,000 dollars

    我們已經花掉未來的教育經費及家裡小孩的花費。

  • is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.

    因此,如果你將整個財務救援政策具體化,

  • But if you stack it up, you see this amazing, staggering amount of dollars

    如果把這些錢堆起來,我們就會看到驚人的景象,

  • that have been put into the system to fund and bail us out.

    一開始先堆36萬美元,

  • So this is the first 315 billion.

    那大概是一個160公分高的人的高度;

  • But I read this fact the other day,

    但如果我們持續堆下去,你就會看到這些驚人、巨額的金錢

  • that one trillion seconds equals 32,000 years.

    已經被放進這個系統,

  • So if you think about that,

    作為資助及財政救援的措施。

  • the context, the casualness with which we talk about

    這是第一筆3千150億美元。

  • trillion-dollar bailout here and trillion there,

    但就在不久前的某一天, 我才發現,

  • we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.

    一萬億秒等於3萬2千年。

  • However, consumers have moved.

    因此如果你思考著整件事情的來龍去脈,

  • They are taking responsibility.

    這些倉促決策的幾萬億的財政救援措施,

  • What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.

    正將我們自己推向長期的財務槓桿。

  • In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened

    然而,消費者已經改變了,

  • since the beginning of the crisis.

    他們正在學著負起責任,

  • We're working our way back up to that 10 percent.

    我們所看到的是存款率的上升,

  • Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,

    事實上,自從金融危機發生之後,

  • spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years --

    存款已連續增加了11個月。

  • almost a 3.7 percent decline.

    我們正努力將存款率拉回10%,

  • Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards than credit cards.

    同時,在第四季可以很明顯地看到,

  • So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.

    消費支出掉到62年來的最低點,

  • And we're starting to be much more careful about how we save and invest.

    減少約3.7%。

  • But that's not really the whole story,

    近日Visa的報告指出,比起使用信用卡,

  • because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.

    越來越多人開始使用現金卡,

  • And you've got to admit, over the last year and a half,

    人們開始在存款限額內進行消費;

  • consumers have been doing some weird things.

    同時我們也更加謹慎規劃

  • It's pretty staggering, what we've lived through.

    儲蓄與投資。

  • If you take into account that 80 percent of all Americans

    但這還無法說明整件事的全貌,

  • were born after World War II,

    因為這也已經變成一個充滿戲劇化的轉變。

  • this was essentially our Depression.

    我們必須承認,在過去一年半的時間裡,

  • And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.

    消費者做了一些相當奇怪的事,

  • I'll give you some examples.

    因為我們所經歷的事件太不可思議了,

  • Let's talk about dentists, vasectomies, guns and shark attacks.

    尤其現在的美國人,

  • (Laughter)

    有80%是在二次世界大戰之後出生,

  • Dentists report molars -- people grinding their teeth,

    這無疑是我們的經濟大衰退。

  • coming in and reporting that they've had stress.

    也因此,導致一些瘋狂的事情發生。

  • So there's an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.

    我會舉幾個例子,像是牙醫、

  • Gun sales, according to the FBI, who does background checks,

    男人結紮、槍枝氾濫以及鯊魚攻擊事件,好嗎?

  • are up almost 25 percent since January.

    (笑聲)

  • Vasectomies are up 48 percent, according to the Cornell Institute.

    牙醫報告指出,

  • And lastly, but a very good point,

    從臼齒就可以看出人們磨牙,

  • hopefully not related to the former point I just made,

    顯示他們承受過多的壓力,

  • which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.

    因此補牙的人越來越多;

  • Does anybody know why?

    根據FBI的背景調查指出,

  • (Laughter)

    槍枝銷售量從1月到現在攀升了近25%;

  • No one's at the beach.

    根據Cornell機構資料顯示,

  • So there's a bright side to everything.

    男人做結紮手術的比例上升了48%。

  • But seriously, what we see happening,

    最後,也是一個非常好的一點,

  • and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,

    希望跟先前我所提到的都不相關,

  • is that this is a tremendous opportunity

    就是鯊魚攻擊的次數降到了2003年以來的最低點。

  • for the consumer who drove us into this recession

    有人知道為什麼嗎?

  • to lead us right back out.

    因為没人去沙灘了。反正每一件事都有好的一面。

  • What I mean by that is we can move from mindless consumption

    但是認真地來說,我們所看到發生的一切,

  • to mindful consumption.

    以及為什麼我想要去強調現在不是消費者從市場上撤退的時機,

  • Right?

    對消費者來說,現在反而是一個絕佳的機會,

  • (Applause)

    雖然過度消費曾讓我們走入經濟衰退,

  • If you think about the last three decades,

    但消費也可以帶領我們走出衰退。

  • the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,

    經過這次的事件,我們可以從愚蠢的消費

  • to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade.

    轉為聰明的消費,對吧?

  • But the one thing holding them back is the ability to discriminate.

    如果你回顧一下過去三十年,

  • By restricting their demand,

    90年代還在試圖理解市場運作的消費者,

  • consumers can actually align their values with their spending,

    最近十年已經發展到懂得利用驚人的社交及搜尋工具,

  • and drive capitalism and business to not just be about more,

    唯一能將他們拉回市場的是辨別好壞的能力。

  • but to be about better.

    藉由限制他們的需求,消費者才能夠實際地

  • We're going to explain that right now.

    衡量消費的價值,

  • Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,

    引導資本主義和企業,

  • proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,

    讓他們不只在乎數量,而是更在乎品質。

  • we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis

    接下來我要來解釋這點,

  • with the consumer marketplace.

    根據Y&R的品牌資產評估系統,

  • We found a couple of really interesting things.

    這是VML和Y&R的專有工具,

  • We're going to go through four value shifts

    我們開始了解到,

  • that we see driving new consumer behaviors,

    金融危機在消費市場所扮演的角色。

  • that offer new management principles.

    我們發現了一些相當有趣的事情,

  • The first cultural value shift we see

    我們要來探討引發新型消費行為、

  • is this tendency toward something we call "liquid life."

    提供新型態管理法則的

  • This is the movement

    四種價值觀的轉變。

  • from Americans defining their success on having things

    首先是文化價值觀的轉變,

  • to having liquidity,

    現在的生活型態漸漸開始重視流動性;

  • because the less excess that you have around you,

    以前美國人以為的成功,是擁有資產,

  • the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.

    現在則是擁有現金,

  • As a result, déclassé consumption is in.

    因為你購買的非必須品愈少,

  • classé consumption is the whole idea that spending money frivolously

    生活的負擔就會愈減輕。

  • makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.

    因此,就產生了低調消費。

  • The management principle is dollars and cents.

    低調消費不贊成盲目奢侈的消費,

  • So let's look at some examples of thisclassé consumption

    因為那不符合現在的流行趨勢。

  • that falls out of this value.

    這個法則重視的是金錢。

  • The first thing is, something must be happening

    那麼,讓我們先來看看一些低調消費

  • when P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.

    這種價值觀轉變的例子。

  • (Laughter)

    第一件事是當P. Diddy(吹牛老爹)宣告

  • But seriously, we also have this phenomenon

    不再穿戴華麗閃亮的服飾,那一定代表某種意義。

  • on Madison Avenue and in other places,

    (笑聲)

  • where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques

    但是嚴格地說,

  • with ordinary, generic paper bags to hide the brand purchases.

    這種現象也發生在廣告業和其他地方,

  • We see high-end haggling in fashion today,

    當人們從奢侈的精品店走出來的時候,

  • high-end haggling for luxury and real estate.

    手裡拿著一般的紙袋,

  • We also see just a relaxing of ego,

    裡面卻藏著他們剛買的各種名牌物品。

  • and sort of a dismantling of artifice.

    今天我們看到高檔的流行商品開始降價促銷,

  • This is a story on the yacht club that's all basically blue collar.

    高檔的奢侈品和不動產也在降價,

  • Blue-collar yacht club -- where you can join,

    我們也看到自尊心的解放,

  • but you've got to work in the boatyard as condition of membership.

    以及人們不再玩弄巧計。

  • We also see the trend toward tourism that's a little bit more low-key:

    這是一個發生在遊艇俱樂部的故事,

  • agritourism -- going to vineyards and going to farms.

    成員基本上都是藍領階級,

  • And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.

    也就是藍領階級遊艇俱樂部,你可以參加這個俱樂部,

  • What businesses can do to connect with these new mindsets

    但前題是你必須在船塢上工作,

  • is really interesting.

    這是入會的基本條件。

  • A couple things that are kind of cool.

    我們也看到未來趨勢朝向

  • One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing with their consumer.

    低調觀光旅遊,對吧?

  • They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,

    農業旅遊,走入葡萄園和農田去實際體驗。

  • less at the end of the month.

    然後我們也看到消費者從重視金錢又往前邁了一步,

  • So they started to change their packaging:

    企業運用這些新觀念所發展出來的想法,

  • larger packs at the beginning of the month,

    是相當有趣的,

  • smaller packaging at the end of the month.

    有一些看起來還很酷。

  • Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.

    其中一個是Frito-Lay(知名食品公司),他們從消費者身上

  • They've just instituted dynamic pricing.

    觀察到現金的使用狀況。

  • It takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,

    他們發現消費者在月初有較多可運用的錢,

  • to the weather, to the team records,

    月底則較少,因此他們所做的

  • in setting prices for the consumer.

    就是去改變他們的包裝,

  • Another quick example of these types of movements is the rise of Zynga.

    月初販賣的包裝比較大,

  • Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire

    月底販賣的包裝則較小。

  • to not want to be locked in to fixed cost.

    另外,真正有趣的是舊金山巨人棒球隊,

  • Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.

    他們採用了動態定價策略,

  • So micro-payments have become huge.

    將各種因素列入考量,像是投手與打者的投打記錄、

  • And lastly, some people are using Hulu

    天氣、球隊紀錄等,

  • as a device to get rid of their cable bill.

    作為訂定票價的依據。

  • So, really clever ideas there that are being taken ahold of

    另一個例子就是Zynga(開發"開心農場"的遊戲廠商)

  • and that marketers are starting to understand.

    的快速崛起。

  • The second of the four values is this movement toward

    Zynga的崛起,是因為消費者

  • ethics and fair play.

    不想定期支付固定成本,

  • We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.

    同樣的,重點是關於變動成本及變動生活,

  • The consumer is demanding it.

    所以消費者的小額支出便累積出Zynga的巨額收入。

  • And, as a result, businesses must provide not only value,

    最後,有一些人使用Hulu(免付費網路電視)

  • but values.

    作為逃避有線電視帳單的手法。

  • Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,

    因此,消費者開始採用

  • at their conduct in the marketplace.

    一些真正聰明的想法,而企業也開始瞭解到這個現象。

  • So we see with empathy and respect

    第二個價值觀的轉變,

  • lots of really hopeful things come out of this recession.

    是重視道德及公平競賽。

  • I'll give you a few examples.

    消費者表現出來的行為是同理心與尊重,

  • One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,

    因為這是消費者需要的,

  • and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.

    所以企業不只要提供有價值的東西,

  • Also, a wonderful by-product of a really lousy thing,

    還得提供符合消費者的價值觀。

  • which has been unemployment,

    漸漸地,消費者開始檢視公司文化,

  • is a rise in volunteerism that's been noted in our country.

    在市場中觀察企業的行為。

  • We also see the phenomenon -- some of you may have "boomerang kids" --

    由於消費者重視同理心與尊重,在這次的經濟衰退中

  • these are "boomerang alumni,"

    竟產生很多真正有希望的事情。

  • where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni

    下面是一些例子,

  • and helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.

    其中之一是重視社區與鄰里,

  • We also talked about character and professionalism.

    並將鄰居當作自己的後備支援系統。

  • We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City in January,

    此外,這次的經濟衰退雖然導致了嚴重的失業率,

  • and suddenly Sully has become a key name on BabyCenter.

    但卻出現了一個很棒的副產品,

  • (Laughter)

    就是目前國人所注意到的義工的增加。

  • So, from a value and values standpoint,

    我們也看到這樣的一個現象,

  • what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.

    你們家裡可能有”賴家王老五”,

  • Microsoft is doing something wonderful.

    這些人則是返校校友,

  • They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with IT training,

    由大學來聯繫這些畢業校友,

  • using their existing infrastructure to do something good.

    幫助他們找工作、分享專業技能,並進行職業訓練。

  • Also, a really interesting company is GORE-TEX.

    我們也談論到人格特質與個人專業,

  • GORE-TEX is all about personal accountability

    今年一月時,紐約的哈德遜河上發生了機長成功迫降的奇蹟,

  • of their management and their employees,

    突然間Sully(機長)這個名字便成了為嬰兒命名的當紅選擇。

  • to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.

    (笑聲)

  • But they also talk about the fact that their executives --

    因此,從價值及價值觀的觀點來看,

  • all of their expense reports are put onto their company intranet

    公司能做的是用各種方式與之連結。

  • for everyone to see.

    微軟做了一些很棒的事,

  • Complete transparency.

    他們對外宣示將訓練2百萬美國人從事資訊行業,

  • Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.

    也就是使用他們既有的設備去做一些好事。

  • (Laughter)

    另一個有趣的公司是Gore-Tex,

  • The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism

    Gore-Tex相當強調個人自我的責任感,

  • is about durable living.

    不管是主管或是員工都一樣,

  • We're seeing in our data that consumers are realizing

    所以幾乎用不到主管的權威。

  • this is a marathon, not a sprint.

    但他們也談論到,

  • They're digging in and looking for ways to extract value

    公司高階主管的所有費用支出,

  • out of every purchase they make.

    都條列在公司內部網路供每個員工觀看,

  • Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars

    完全透明,

  • longer than ever before: 9.4 years on average, in March.

    所以高階主管在喝酒前可得三思而後行。

  • A record.

    第三個法則是