字幕列表 影片播放 列印所有字幕 列印翻譯字幕 列印英文字幕 Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth 譯者: Fong-Jyuan Ciou 審譯者: Marie Wu has evaporated over the course of the last two years. 13兆美元的財富， We've questioned the future of capitalism. 在過去兩年裡從市場上蒸發， We've questioned the financial industry. 我們質疑資本主義的未來， We've looked at our government oversight. 我們質問這些金融產業， We've questioned where we're going. 我們檢視政府的缺失， And yet, at the same time, 我們對未來的方向充滿迷茫； this very well may be a seminal moment in American history, 但同時，這也可能成為 an opportunity for the consumer to actually take control and guide us 美國史上一個重要的里程碑。 to a new trajectory in America. 對消費者而言，這是一個機會， I'm calling this The Great Unwind. 可以讓消費者去掌控並引導我們 (Laughter) 走向一個新的軌道， And the idea is a simple, simple idea, 我稱它為"大解放 "。 which is the fact that the consumer has moved from a state of anxiety 這是一個很簡單的概念， to action. 指的是消費者 Consumers who represent 72 percent of the GDP of America 將心中的焦慮實際付諸行動的現象。 have actually started, just like banks and just like businesses, 佔美國國內生產總值 to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage in daily life, 72%的消費者已經開始採取行動， to remove themselves from the liability and risk 就像那些銀行、企業 that presents itself as they move forward. 紛紛採取去槓桿化措施、解除財務槓桿的操作， So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this -- 消費者每天都在幫助自己 it's not about the consumer being in retreat. 從負債與風險中脫離出來， The consumer is empowered. 繼續往前進。 To understand this, we'll step back and look at what's happened 因此，為了暸解這部份，接下來我將強調這點， over the last year and a half. 這並不是說消費者正從市場上撤退， So if you've been gone, this is the CliffsNotes 而是他們的力量變強了。 on what's happened in the economy. 為了暸解這個，我們稍微後退一步看看， (Laughter) 在過去一年半裡究竟發生了什麼事， Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down. 如果你已經經歷過金融危機，就把這當作是重點整理， Commodity prices are like this. 以便了解我們的經濟到底發生了什麼事情，好嗎? If you're a mom trying to manage a budget, (笑聲) and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer, 失業率上升、房價暴跌、股市一片慘淡、 and it's somewhere between 50 and 70, 商品價格也差不多如此， do you plan vacations? 假設你是一個管理預算的媽媽， How do you buy? 去年夏天油價一桶150美元， What's your strategy in your household? Will the bailout work? 現在則差不多在50到70美元間上下震盪， We have national debt, Detroit, currency valuations, health care -- 你還會計畫旅遊嗎?你會如何分配預算? all these issues facing us. 你的家庭策略規劃又是什麼? You put them all together, mix them up in a bouillabaisse, 政府的緊急財政救援會見效嗎?美國國債、底特律失業問題、 and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time bomb. 幣值、醫療保健等，所有的這些議題都不斷地衝擊著我們， In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis, 如果把這些問題攪和在一起， because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives, 你將發現消費者信心會像個定時炸彈一樣。 actually contributed a large part to the problem. 讓我們回顧看看是什麼造成這次的金融危機， This is something I call the 50-20 paradox. 每天，我們所有的消費者所做的行為， It took us 50 years 都要對這個問題負上很大的責任。 to reach annual savings ratings of almost 10 percent. 我稱它為50-20矛盾法則， Fifty years. 我們花了50年時間， Do you know what this was right here? This was World War II. 才達到接近10%的 Do you know why savings was so high? 年存款率。50年耶... There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets. 你們知道在這裡發生了什麼事嗎? What happened, though, over the course of the last 20 years, 這是第二次世界大戰。各位知道為什麼存款率這麼高嗎? we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate. 因為沒有東西可以買，除非你想引起別人注意，對吧? Because we binged. 那麼,在過去20年裡,究竟發生了什麼事， We bought extra-large cars, supersized everything, 讓我們的存款率從正10%變成負的存款率？ we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome. 因為我們過於狂熱，我們買超大尺寸的車、 All these things together basically created a factor 購買過量或過大的東西、付錢醫治我們的「不寧腿症候群」， where the consumer drove us headlong into the crisis 當所有的事情都湊在一起時， that we face today. 多多少少造成了 The personal debt-to-income ratio basically went from 65 to 135 percent 今日的金融危機。 in the span of about 15 years. 個人的負債收入比 So consumers got over-leveraged. 在過去的15年期間，從原來的65% And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government. 攀升到現在的135%。 This is an absolutely staggering chart. 消費者過度使用財務槓桿， It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009. 當然銀行跟聯邦政府也是一樣。 And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon 這是一張絕對會讓你吃驚的圖表， that we are actually stepping forth and basically leveraging 顯示財務槓桿從1919年到2009年的走向， future education, future children in our households. 最後你會看到一個特殊的現象， So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout, 就是我們正在花未來的錢， what you can see is, if you stack up dollar bills, 我們將財務槓桿拉到未來， first of all, 360,000 dollars 我們已經花掉未來的教育經費及家裡小孩的花費。 is about the size of a five-foot-four guy. 因此,如果你將整個財務救援政策具體化， But if you stack it up, you see this amazing, staggering amount of dollars 如果把這些錢堆起來，我們就會看到驚人的景象， that have been put into the system to fund and bail us out. 一開始先堆36萬美元， So this is the first 315 billion. 那大概是一個160公分高的人的高度； But I read this fact the other day, 但如果我們持續堆下去，你就會看到這些驚人、巨額的金錢 that one trillion seconds equals 32,000 years. 已經被放進這個系統， So if you think about that, 作為資助及財政救援的措施。 the context, the casualness with which we talk about 這是第一筆3千150億美元。 trillion-dollar bailout here and trillion there, 但就在不久前的某一天, 我才發現， we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage. 一萬億秒等於3萬2千年。 However, consumers have moved. 因此如果你思考著整件事情的來龍去脈, They are taking responsibility. 這些倉促決策的幾萬億的財政救援措施， What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate. 正將我們自己推向長期的財務槓桿。 In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened 然而,消費者已經改變了， since the beginning of the crisis. 他們正在學著負起責任， We're working our way back up to that 10 percent. 我們所看到的是存款率的上升， Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter, 事實上,自從金融危機發生之後， spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years -- 存款已連續增加了11個月。 almost a 3.7 percent decline. 我們正努力將存款率拉回10%， Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards than credit cards. 同時，在第四季可以很明顯地看到， So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have. 消費支出掉到62年來的最低點， And we're starting to be much more careful about how we save and invest. 減少約3.7%。 But that's not really the whole story, 近日Visa的報告指出，比起使用信用卡， because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation. 越來越多人開始使用現金卡， And you've got to admit, over the last year and a half, 人們開始在存款限額內進行消費； consumers have been doing some weird things. 同時我們也更加謹慎規劃 It's pretty staggering, what we've lived through. 儲蓄與投資。 If you take into account that 80 percent of all Americans 但這還無法說明整件事的全貌， were born after World War II, 因為這也已經變成一個充滿戲劇化的轉變。 this was essentially our Depression. 我們必須承認,在過去一年半的時間裡， And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened. 消費者做了一些相當奇怪的事， I'll give you some examples. 因為我們所經歷的事件太不可思議了， Let's talk about dentists, vasectomies, guns and shark attacks. 尤其現在的美國人， (Laughter) 有80%是在二次世界大戰之後出生， Dentists report molars -- people grinding their teeth, 這無疑是我們的經濟大衰退。 coming in and reporting that they've had stress. 也因此,導致一些瘋狂的事情發生。 So there's an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced. 我會舉幾個例子,像是牙醫、 Gun sales, according to the FBI, who does background checks, 男人結紮、槍枝氾濫以及鯊魚攻擊事件，好嗎? are up almost 25 percent since January. (笑聲) Vasectomies are up 48 percent, according to the Cornell Institute. 牙醫報告指出， And lastly, but a very good point, 從臼齒就可以看出人們磨牙， hopefully not related to the former point I just made, 顯示他們承受過多的壓力， which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003. 因此補牙的人越來越多； Does anybody know why? 根據FBI的背景調查指出， (Laughter) 槍枝銷售量從1月到現在攀升了近25%； No one's at the beach. 根據Cornell機構資料顯示， So there's a bright side to everything. 男人做結紮手術的比例上升了48%。 But seriously, what we see happening, 最後，也是一個非常好的一點， and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat, 希望跟先前我所提到的都不相關， is that this is a tremendous opportunity 就是鯊魚攻擊的次數降到了2003年以來的最低點。 for the consumer who drove us into this recession 有人知道為什麼嗎？ to lead us right back out. 因為没人去沙灘了。反正每一件事都有好的一面。 What I mean by that is we can move from mindless consumption 但是認真地來說，我們所看到發生的一切， to mindful consumption. 以及為什麼我想要去強調現在不是消費者從市場上撤退的時機， Right? 對消費者來說，現在反而是一個絕佳的機會， (Applause) 雖然過度消費曾讓我們走入經濟衰退， If you think about the last three decades, 但消費也可以帶領我們走出衰退。 the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s, 經過這次的事件,我們可以從愚蠢的消費 to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade. 轉為聰明的消費,對吧? But the one thing holding them back is the ability to discriminate. 如果你回顧一下過去三十年， By restricting their demand, 90年代還在試圖理解市場運作的消費者， consumers can actually align their values with their spending, 最近十年已經發展到懂得利用驚人的社交及搜尋工具， and drive capitalism and business to not just be about more, 唯一能將他們拉回市場的是辨別好壞的能力。 but to be about better. 藉由限制他們的需求,消費者才能夠實際地 We're going to explain that right now. 衡量消費的價值， Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator, 引導資本主義和企業， proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam, 讓他們不只在乎數量，而是更在乎品質。 we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis 接下來我要來解釋這點， with the consumer marketplace. 根據Y&R的品牌資產評估系統， We found a couple of really interesting things. 這是VML和Y&R的專有工具， We're going to go through four value shifts 我們開始了解到， that we see driving new consumer behaviors, 金融危機在消費市場所扮演的角色。 that offer new management principles. 我們發現了一些相當有趣的事情， The first cultural value shift we see 我們要來探討引發新型消費行為、 is this tendency toward something we call "liquid life." 提供新型態管理法則的 This is the movement 四種價值觀的轉變。 from Americans defining their success on having things 首先是文化價值觀的轉變， to having liquidity, 現在的生活型態漸漸開始重視流動性； because the less excess that you have around you, 以前美國人以為的成功，是擁有資產， the more nimble and fleet of foot you are. 現在則是擁有現金， As a result, déclassé consumption is in. 因為你購買的非必須品愈少， Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money frivolously 生活的負擔就會愈減輕。 makes you look a little bit anti-fashion. 因此，就產生了低調消費。 The management principle is dollars and cents. 低調消費不贊成盲目奢侈的消費， So let's look at some examples of this déclassé consumption 因為那不符合現在的流行趨勢。 that falls out of this value. 這個法則重視的是金錢。 The first thing is, something must be happening 那麼,讓我們先來看看一些低調消費 when P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling. 這種價值觀轉變的例子。 (Laughter) 第一件事是當P. Diddy（吹牛老爹）宣告 But seriously, we also have this phenomenon 不再穿戴華麗閃亮的服飾，那一定代表某種意義。 on Madison Avenue and in other places, （笑聲） where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques 但是嚴格地說， with ordinary, generic paper bags to hide the brand purchases. 這種現象也發生在廣告業和其他地方， We see high-end haggling in fashion today, 當人們從奢侈的精品店走出來的時候， high-end haggling for luxury and real estate. 手裡拿著一般的紙袋， We also see just a relaxing of ego, 裡面卻藏著他們剛買的各種名牌物品。 and sort of a dismantling of artifice. 今天我們看到高檔的流行商品開始降價促銷， This is a story on the yacht club that's all basically blue collar. 高檔的奢侈品和不動產也在降價， Blue-collar yacht club -- where you can join, 我們也看到自尊心的解放， but you've got to work in the boatyard as condition of membership. 以及人們不再玩弄巧計。 We also see the trend toward tourism that's a little bit more low-key: 這是一個發生在遊艇俱樂部的故事， agritourism -- going to vineyards and going to farms. 成員基本上都是藍領階級， And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents. 也就是藍領階級遊艇俱樂部,你可以參加這個俱樂部， What businesses can do to connect with these new mindsets 但前題是你必須在船塢上工作， is really interesting. 這是入會的基本條件。 A couple things that are kind of cool. 我們也看到未來趨勢朝向 One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing with their consumer. 低調觀光旅遊,對吧? They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month, 農業旅遊，走入葡萄園和農田去實際體驗。 less at the end of the month. 然後我們也看到消費者從重視金錢又往前邁了一步， So they started to change their packaging: 企業運用這些新觀念所發展出來的想法， larger packs at the beginning of the month, 是相當有趣的， smaller packaging at the end of the month. 有一些看起來還很酷。 Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants. 其中一個是Frito-Lay(知名食品公司)，他們從消費者身上 They've just instituted dynamic pricing. 觀察到現金的使用狀況。 It takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups, 他們發現消費者在月初有較多可運用的錢， to the weather, to the team records, 月底則較少，因此他們所做的 in setting prices for the consumer. 就是去改變他們的包裝， Another quick example of these types of movements is the rise of Zynga. 月初販賣的包裝比較大， Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire 月底販賣的包裝則較小。 to not want to be locked in to fixed cost. 另外，真正有趣的是舊金山巨人棒球隊， Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living. 他們採用了動態定價策略， So micro-payments have become huge. 將各種因素列入考量,像是投手與打者的投打記錄、 And lastly, some people are using Hulu 天氣、球隊紀錄等， as a device to get rid of their cable bill. 作為訂定票價的依據。 So, really clever ideas there that are being taken ahold of 另一個例子就是Zynga（開發"開心農場"的遊戲廠商） and that marketers are starting to understand. 的快速崛起。 The second of the four values is this movement toward Zynga的崛起，是因為消費者 ethics and fair play. 不想定期支付固定成本， We see that play itself out with empathy and respect. 同樣的，重點是關於變動成本及變動生活， The consumer is demanding it. 所以消費者的小額支出便累積出Zynga的巨額收入。 And, as a result, businesses must provide not only value, 最後,有一些人使用Hulu（免付費網路電視） but values. 作為逃避有線電視帳單的手法。 Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company, 因此,消費者開始採用 at their conduct in the marketplace. 一些真正聰明的想法,而企業也開始瞭解到這個現象。 So we see with empathy and respect 第二個價值觀的轉變， lots of really hopeful things come out of this recession. 是重視道德及公平競賽。 I'll give you a few examples. 消費者表現出來的行為是同理心與尊重， One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods, 因為這是消費者需要的， and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system. 所以企業不只要提供有價值的東西， Also, a wonderful by-product of a really lousy thing, 還得提供符合消費者的價值觀。 which has been unemployment, 漸漸地，消費者開始檢視公司文化， is a rise in volunteerism that's been noted in our country. 在市場中觀察企業的行為。 We also see the phenomenon -- some of you may have "boomerang kids" -- 由於消費者重視同理心與尊重，在這次的經濟衰退中 these are "boomerang alumni," 竟產生很多真正有希望的事情。 where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni 下面是一些例子， and helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining. 其中之一是重視社區與鄰里， We also talked about character and professionalism. 並將鄰居當作自己的後備支援系統。 We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City in January, 此外,這次的經濟衰退雖然導致了嚴重的失業率， and suddenly Sully has become a key name on BabyCenter. 但卻出現了一個很棒的副產品， (Laughter) 就是目前國人所注意到的義工的增加。 So, from a value and values standpoint, 我們也看到這樣的一個現象， what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways. 你們家裡可能有”賴家王老五”， Microsoft is doing something wonderful. 這些人則是返校校友， They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with IT training, 由大學來聯繫這些畢業校友， using their existing infrastructure to do something good. 幫助他們找工作、分享專業技能，並進行職業訓練。 Also, a really interesting company is GORE-TEX. 我們也談論到人格特質與個人專業， GORE-TEX is all about personal accountability 今年一月時，紐約的哈德遜河上發生了機長成功迫降的奇蹟， of their management and their employees, 突然間Sully(機長)這個名字便成了為嬰兒命名的當紅選擇。 to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses. (笑聲) But they also talk about the fact that their executives -- 因此,從價值及價值觀的觀點來看， all of their expense reports are put onto their company intranet 公司能做的是用各種方式與之連結。 for everyone to see. 微軟做了一些很棒的事， Complete transparency. 他們對外宣示將訓練2百萬美國人從事資訊行業， Think twice before you have that bottle of wine. 也就是使用他們既有的設備去做一些好事。 (Laughter) 另一個有趣的公司是Gore-Tex， The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism Gore-Tex相當強調個人自我的責任感， is about durable living. 不管是主管或是員工都一樣， We're seeing in our data that consumers are realizing 所以幾乎用不到主管的權威。 this is a marathon, not a sprint. 但他們也談論到， They're digging in and looking for ways to extract value 公司高階主管的所有費用支出， out of every purchase they make. 都條列在公司內部網路供每個員工觀看， Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars 完全透明， longer than ever before: 9.4 years on average, in March. 所以高階主管在喝酒前可得三思而後行。 A record. 第三個法則是 We also see the fact that libraries have become a huge resource for America.