It poses a very fascinating puzzle for us.

請看一下這張照片

These African students are doing their homework

擺在我們眼前的是一個很妙的謎題

under streetlights at the airport in the capital city

這些非洲學生正在做功課

because they don't have any electricity at home.

地點是在首都機場的路燈下

Now, I haven't met these particular students,

因為他們家裡沒有電

but I've met students like them.

我並沒有見過照片裡的這些學生

Let's just pick one -- for example, the one in the green shirt.

但我碰過像他們一樣的學生

Let's give him a name, too: Nelson.

讓我們挑一位做例子, 就那位穿綠衣服的好了

I'll bet Nelson has a cellphone.

我們姑且稱呼他為尼爾森吧

So here is the puzzle.

我想尼爾森應該有手機

Why is it that Nelson has access

所以謎題來了:

to a cutting-edge technology, like the cellphone,

為什麼尼爾森可以擁有

but doesn't have access to a 100-year-old technology

像手機這樣尖端的科技產品

for generating electric light in the home?

卻無法享受老早就有的科技

Now, in a word, the answer is "rules."

好讓自己家裡有電燈用?

Bad rules can prevent the kind of win-win solution that's available

簡單來說, 謎底就是: 體制

when people can bring new technologies in

不良的制度會阻礙雙贏辦法的產生

and make them available to someone like Nelson.

譬如即使有人可以把新科技帶進（非洲）

What kinds of rules?

像尼爾森這樣的學生也無法受惠

The electric company in this nation

那麼這些（不良）制度是什麼呢？

operates under a rule, which says that it has to sell

這個國家的電力公司

electricity at a very low, subsidized price --

遵循一套營運的制度，就是在政府補貼的情況下

in fact, a price that is so low it loses money on every unit that it sells.

跟用戶收取極低的電費

So it has neither the resources, nor the incentives,

事實上，這個電費低到每賣一度電，就虧一度電

to hook up many other users.

所以公司既無資源、也無動機

The president wanted to change this rule.

去幫許多用戶配電

He's seen that it's possible to have a different set of rules,

於是總統想改變這個制度

rules where businesses earn a small profit,

他見過也因此知道體制的改革是可行的

so they have an incentive to sign up more customers.

改變後的體制可以幫助企業獲利

That's the kind of rules that the cellphone company

使他們有動機去服務更多客戶

that Nelson purchases his telephony from operates under.

提供尼爾森手機服務的電信業者

The president has seen how those rules worked well.

就是在這樣的體制下運作的

So he tried to change the rules for pricing on electricity,

總統知道這種體制的好處

but ran into a firestorm of protest

所以想如法炮製改變電價制定的方式

from businesses and consumers

但他面臨的卻是來自企業及客戶

who wanted to preserve the existing subsidized rates.

排山倒海的抗議

So he was stuck with rules that prevented him

這些人想維持現有的補助制度

from letting the win-win solution help his country.

因此阻撓總統，使他無法藉由雙贏辦法

And Nelson is stuck studying under the streetlights.

來幫助他的國家

The real challenge then, is to try to figure out

而尼爾森也只得困在路燈下讀書

how we can change rules.

由此看來，我們真正的挑戰在於找出

Are there some rules we can develop for changing rules?

改變體制的辦法

I want to argue that there is a general abstract insight

那麼我們可以發展甚麼“改變制度的制度”呢？

that we can make practical,

我的論點是，我們可以將一個抽象的想法

which is that, if we can give more choices to people,

化為實際行動

and more choices to leaders --

亦即提供人民更多選擇

who, in many countries, are also people.

也給統治者更多選擇

(Laughter)

雖然在很多國家裡統治者就是人民

But, it's useful to present the opposition between these two.

（笑聲）

Because the kind of choice you might want to give to a leader,

不過區分這二者還是有必要的

a choice like giving the president the choice

因為有時候你想給統治者的那種選擇

to raise prices on electricity,

譬如在賦予總統

takes away a choice that people in the economy want.

提高電價的抉擇權時

They want the choice to be able to continue consuming

你同時也剝奪了人民想要的某種經濟自由

subsidized electric power.

那就是他們希望能選擇繼續享有

So if you give just to one side or the other,

政府補貼的電價

you'll have tension or friction.

所以如果你只提供某一方選擇的自由

But if we can find ways to give more choices to both,

你將面臨對立或是摩擦

that will give us a set of rules

但如果我們可以想辦法給雙方更多的選擇

for changing rules that get us out of traps.

我們就能發展出一套制度

Now, Nelson also has access to the Internet.

來改變體制，救民於水火

And he says that if you want to see

尼爾森也有網路用

the damaging effects of rules,

他說如果你想見識

the ways that rules can keep people in the dark,

(不良)體制的破壞力

look at the pictures from NASA of the earth at night.

是如何使人民生活在黑暗中

In particular check out Asia.

不妨看看美國太空總署拍攝的地球夜景

If you zoom in here,

特別是亞洲

you can see North Korea, in outline here,

如果拉近一點來看這裡

which is like a black hole compared to its neighbors.

你可以看到北韓這塊

Now, you won't be surprised to learn

跟她的鄰國比起來就像是個黑洞

that the rules in North Korea

我想你不會對這樣的發現感到驚訝

keep people there in the dark.

就是北韓的體制

But it is important to recognize

如何陷他們的人民於黑暗之中

that North Korea and South Korea

但值得我們正視的是

started out with identical sets of rules

北韓和南韓

in both the sense of laws and regulations,

開始時用的是同一套制度

but also in the deeper senses of understandings,

無論在法條還是一般規範上

norms, culture, values and beliefs.

甚至更深層的方面：認知、

When they separated, they made choices

社會習俗、文化、價值觀以及信念

that led to very divergent paths

但當他們分裂時，他們各自做了決定

for their sets of rules.

因此在體制面走上了

So we can change -- we as humans can change the rules

截然不同的道路

that we use to interact with each other,

所以我們是可以改變的；人類可以改變

for better, or for worse.

彼此互動的準則

Now let's look at another region, the Caribbean.

儘管結果是未知數

Zoom in on Haiti,

現在讓我們來看看另一區：加勒比海

in outline here.

鏡頭拉到海地

Haiti is also dark,

框起來的這裡

compared to its neighbor here, the Dominican Republic,

海地也很暗

which has about the same number of residents.

與她的鄰居多明尼加相比

Both of these countries are dark compared to Puerto Rico,

二國的人口數差不多

which has half as many residents

也都比波多黎各暗

as either Haiti or the Dominican Republic.

而波多黎各的人口數卻只有

What Haiti warns us is that

海地或多明尼加的一半

rules can be bad because governments are weak.

所以海地提醒我們的是

It's not just that the rules are bad because

體制之所以不良，有可能是因為政府的軟弱

the government is too strong and oppressive, as in North Korea.

不見得都是因為強權或政府專制

So that if we want to create environments with good rules,

像北韓的情況那樣

we can't just tear down.

所以如果我們想創造一個有良好體制的環境

We've got to find ways to build up, as well.

我們不能只是破壞

Now, China dramatically demonstrates

還要想辦法建設

both the potential and the challenges

現在，中國戲劇性地向我們展示了

of working with rules.

與體制周旋時所遇到的

Back in the beginning of the data presented in this chart,

危機與轉機

China was the world's high-technology leader.

讓我們回這份資料的一開頭

Chinese had pioneered technologies like steel, printing, gunpowder.

中國曾引領世界高科技

But the Chinese never adopted, at least in that period,

中國人的科技像煉鋼、印刷、火藥等都是先驅

effective rules for encouraging the spread of those ideas --

然而中國人從未採用，至少在當時

a profit motive that could have encouraged the spread.

一套有效的制度來推動想法的傳播，例如

And they soon adopted rules which

他們從未由利益觀點出發，來推動思想的傳播

slowed down innovation

而且他們很快就採用一套制度

and cut China off from the rest of the world.

來放慢自己創新的腳步

So as other countries in the world innovated,

使中國與世界隔絕

in the sense both of developing

所以當其他國家開始創新

newer technologies,

不僅發展

but also developing newer rules,

新科技

the Chinese were cut off from those advances.

更建立新制度時

Income there stayed stagnant,

中國卻無緣參與這些進步

as it zoomed ahead in the rest of the world.

國民所得停滯不前

This next chart looks at more recent data.

也不再是世界舞台的焦點

It plots income, average income in China

下張圖表是比較近期的資料

as a percentage of average income in the United States.

顯示的是中國的平均所得

In the '50s and '60s you can see that it was hovering at about three percent.

佔美國平均所得的百分比

But then in the late '70s something changed.

在50、60年代時你們可以看到這個數字大約是3％

Growth took off in China. The Chinese started catching up

但到了70年代末期，情況有些改變了

very quickly with the United States.

中國經濟開始起飛

If you go back to the map at night, you can get a clue

中國人開始迎頭趕上美國

to the process that lead to the dramatic change in rules in China.

如果你們回過來看一下這個夜景圖，就會發現

The brightest spot in China,

是什麼樣的過程帶動中國體制的大轉變

which you can see on the edge of the outline here,

中國最亮的這點

is Hong Kong.

就是你們在輪廓邊上看到的這點

Hong Kong was a small bit of China

是香港

that, for most of the 20th century,

香港本來是中國領土中很小的一點

operated under a very different set of rules

在20世紀大部分的時候

than the rest of mainland China --

都是遵循一套很不一樣的體制在運作

rules that were copied

與中國其他地方都不同

from working market economies of the time,

這套制度是仿效

and administered by the British.

當時盛行的, 由英國主導的

In the 1950s, Hong Kong was a place where

市場經濟體制

millions of people could go, from the mainland,

在50年代, 香港是一個

to start in jobs like sewing shirts, making toys.

成千上萬中國人都可以去

But, to get on a process of increasing income,

打工的地方, 譬如成衣業、玩具業

increasing skills

而這原本只是為了增加收入

led to very rapid growth there.

增進技能的過程

Hong Kong was also the model

卻帶動了地方上快速的成長

which leaders like Deng Xiaoping

香港當時也是一個範本

could copy, when they decided to move

是讓中國領導人如鄧小平

all of the mainland towards the market model.

可以拿來複製的一個對象，當他們決定

But Deng Xiaoping instinctively understood

在整個中國大陸推行市場經濟

the importance of offering choices to his people.

不過鄧小平直覺地了解到

So instead of forcing everyone in China

提供人民選擇的重要性

to shift immediately to the market model,

因此與其強迫所有人

they proceeded by creating some special zones

立刻轉而支持市場經濟模式

that could do, in a sense, what Britain did:

不如從設立一些特區著手

make the opportunity to go work with the market rules

從某方面來說，類似英國人採用的辦法

available to the people who wanted to opt in there.

使機會與市場體制結合

So they created four special economic zones around Hong Kong:

讓想參與的民眾有地方可以發揮

zones where Chinese could come and work,

因此他們在香港周圍建了四個經濟特區

and cities grew up very rapidly there;

讓中國人民可以到這些地方工作

also zones where foreign firms could come in

於是城市很快地發展起來

and make things.

外國企業同樣也可以到這些特區

One of the zones next to Hong Kong has a city called Shenzhen.

設點、生產製造

In that city there is a Taiwanese firm

在香港旁邊的這些特區裡有個城市 － 深圳

that made the iPhone that many of you have,

有台灣企業在那裡設廠

and they made it with labor from Chinese

生產在座很多人都在使用的iPhone

who moved there to Shenzhen.

而他們就是利用從中國其他地方來到深圳

So after the four special zones,

打工的這些勞動力

there were 14 coastal cites

所以繼這四個特區之後

that were open in the same sense,

又有14個沿海城市

and eventually demonstrated successes

依循相同的模式發展起來

in these places that people could opt in to,

最後，這些地方的成功

that they flocked to because of the advantages they offered.

就是人民可以選擇

Demonstrated successes there led to a consensus for

接受它們提供的有利條件來到這些地方工作

a move toward the market model for the entire economy.

更成功促成了全國性的共識

Now the Chinese example shows us several points.

使整體經濟向市場模式靠攏

One is: preserve choices for people.

中國的例子顯示了以下幾點

Two: operate on the right scale.

第一：保留人民選擇的權力

If you try to change the rules in a village, you could do that,

第二：運作的規模要選對

but a village would be too small

如果你想改變一個村落的體制，你可以這麼做

to get the kinds of benefits you can get if you have millions of people

但村落這個單位太小了

all working under good rules.

對一個有上億人口的國家來說，想要透過改變村落

On the other hand, the nation is too big.

來改善一國的體制，恐怕很難成功

If you try to change the rules in the nation,

另一方面，以國家為單位又太大

you can't give some people a chance

如果你想一下子改變一國的體制

to hold back, see how things turn out,

就無法給那些暫時不想改變的人一個機會

and let others zoom ahead and try the new rules.

多觀望一會兒，看看事情的結果如何

But cities give you this opportunity

同時又能讓其他想嘗試新制度的人放手去做

to create new places,

而以城市為單位卻能給你這個機會

with new rules that people can opt in to.

去創立新地點

And they're large enough

藉由新制度讓人民來此從事經濟活動

to get all of the benefits that we can have

而且城市作為改變的單位也夠大

when millions of us work together under good rules.

當成千上萬人在新體制下工作

So the proposal is that we

這規模足以讓我們獲得所有預期的好處

conceive of something called a charter city.

所以我的提議是

We start with a charter that specifies

建構一個叫做“特區市”的東西

all the rules required

我們從一個囊括各項細則的整體規劃開始

to attract the people who we'll need to build the city.

制定各項必需的制度

We'll need to attract the investors

來吸引建造這座城市所需的人力

who will build out the infrastructure --

我們會需要吸引投資者

the power system, the roads, the port, the airport, the buildings.

這些人將投資興建各項基礎建設

You'll need to attract firms,

電力系統、道路、港口、機場、及樓房

who will come hire the people who move there first.

你會需要吸引企業

And you'll need to attract families,

他們所雇用的人力將是這城市第一批移入的居民

the residents who will come and live there permanently,

然後你會需要吸引家家戶戶

raise their children, get an education for their children,

願意搬來成為永久居民的人

and get their first job.

在這裡養育子女

With that charter, people will move there.

並開始他們的第一份工作

The city can be built.

一旦有了整體規劃，人群會開始移入

And we can scale this model.

城市就可以被建造起來

We can go do it over and over again.

然後我們可以評估這個模式

To make it work, we need good rules. We've already discussed that.

進而不斷重複這個模式

Those are captured in the charter.

為了成功，我們需要好的制度。這點剛已經討論過了

We also need the choices for people.

也已經包含在所謂的整體規劃裡

That's really built into the model

另外我們還需要提供人民許多選擇

if we allow for the possibility of building cities

這也是這個模式的真諦

on uninhabited land.

如果我們接受在無人之地

You start from uninhabited territory.

造市的可能性

People can come live under the new charter,

你著手開發無人之地

but no one is forced to live under it.

人們可以搬來按照新的規劃生活

The final thing we need are choices for leaders.

但沒有一個人是被迫的

And, to achieve the kind of choices we want for leaders

最後我們需要的是給領導者選擇

we need to allow for the potential for partnerships between nations:

而為了使領導者做出符合我們期望的選擇

cases where nations work together,

我們需要發展國際合作的可能性

in effect, de facto,

創造國與國之間

the way China and Britain worked together

有效的合作模式

to build, first a little enclave of the market model,

就像從前中國和英國之間的合作

and then scale it throughout China.

先在一個小小的殖民地試行市場經濟模式

In a sense, Britain, inadvertently,

然後再推行到全中國

through its actions in Hong Kong,

從這個方面來看，英國倒是無意間

did more to reduce world poverty

藉由她在香港所行的措施

than all the aid programs that we've undertaken

減少了世界貧窮

in the last century.

所得的成果比上個世紀

So if we allow for these kind of partnerships

所有援助計畫加起來還要大

to replicate this again,

所以如果我們願意讓這樣的合作模式

we can get those kinds of benefits scaled throughout the world.

再度重現