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  • Take a look at this picture.

    譯者: Sherri Wu 審譯者: Shelley Krishna Tsang

  • It poses a very fascinating puzzle for us.

    請看一下這張照片

  • These African students are doing their homework

    擺在我們眼前的是一個很妙的謎題

  • under streetlights at the airport in the capital city

    這些非洲學生正在做功課

  • because they don't have any electricity at home.

    地點是在首都機場的路燈下

  • Now, I haven't met these particular students,

    因為他們家裡沒有電

  • but I've met students like them.

    我並沒有見過照片裡的這些學生

  • Let's just pick one -- for example, the one in the green shirt.

    但我碰過像他們一樣的學生

  • Let's give him a name, too: Nelson.

    讓我們挑一位做例子, 就那位穿綠衣服的好了

  • I'll bet Nelson has a cellphone.

    我們姑且稱呼他為尼爾森吧

  • So here is the puzzle.

    我想尼爾森應該有手機

  • Why is it that Nelson has access

    所以謎題來了:

  • to a cutting-edge technology, like the cellphone,

    為什麼尼爾森可以擁有

  • but doesn't have access to a 100-year-old technology

    像手機這樣尖端的科技產品

  • for generating electric light in the home?

    卻無法享受老早就有的科技

  • Now, in a word, the answer is "rules."

    好讓自己家裡有電燈用?

  • Bad rules can prevent the kind of win-win solution that's available

    簡單來說, 謎底就是: 體制

  • when people can bring new technologies in

    不良的制度會阻礙雙贏辦法的產生

  • and make them available to someone like Nelson.

    譬如即使有人可以把新科技帶進(非洲)

  • What kinds of rules?

    像尼爾森這樣的學生也無法受惠

  • The electric company in this nation

    那麼這些(不良)制度是什麼呢?

  • operates under a rule, which says that it has to sell

    這個國家的電力公司

  • electricity at a very low, subsidized price --

    遵循一套營運的制度,就是在政府補貼的情況下

  • in fact, a price that is so low it loses money on every unit that it sells.

    跟用戶收取極低的電費

  • So it has neither the resources, nor the incentives,

    事實上,這個電費低到每賣一度電,就虧一度電

  • to hook up many other users.

    所以公司既無資源、也無動機

  • The president wanted to change this rule.

    去幫許多用戶配電

  • He's seen that it's possible to have a different set of rules,

    於是總統想改變這個制度

  • rules where businesses earn a small profit,

    他見過也因此知道體制的改革是可行的

  • so they have an incentive to sign up more customers.

    改變後的體制可以幫助企業獲利

  • That's the kind of rules that the cellphone company

    使他們有動機去服務更多客戶

  • that Nelson purchases his telephony from operates under.

    提供尼爾森手機服務的電信業者

  • The president has seen how those rules worked well.

    就是在這樣的體制下運作的

  • So he tried to change the rules for pricing on electricity,

    總統知道這種體制的好處

  • but ran into a firestorm of protest

    所以想如法炮製改變電價制定的方式

  • from businesses and consumers

    但他面臨的卻是來自企業及客戶

  • who wanted to preserve the existing subsidized rates.

    排山倒海的抗議

  • So he was stuck with rules that prevented him

    這些人想維持現有的補助制度

  • from letting the win-win solution help his country.

    因此阻撓總統,使他無法藉由雙贏辦法

  • And Nelson is stuck studying under the streetlights.

    來幫助他的國家

  • The real challenge then, is to try to figure out

    而尼爾森也只得困在路燈下讀書

  • how we can change rules.

    由此看來,我們真正的挑戰在於找出

  • Are there some rules we can develop for changing rules?

    改變體制的辦法

  • I want to argue that there is a general abstract insight

    那麼我們可以發展甚麼“改變制度的制度”呢?

  • that we can make practical,

    我的論點是,我們可以將一個抽象的想法

  • which is that, if we can give more choices to people,

    化為實際行動

  • and more choices to leaders --

    亦即提供人民更多選擇

  • who, in many countries, are also people.

    也給統治者更多選擇

  • (Laughter)

    雖然在很多國家裡統治者就是人民

  • But, it's useful to present the opposition between these two.

    (笑聲)

  • Because the kind of choice you might want to give to a leader,

    不過區分這二者還是有必要的

  • a choice like giving the president the choice

    因為有時候你想給統治者的那種選擇

  • to raise prices on electricity,

    譬如在賦予總統

  • takes away a choice that people in the economy want.

    提高電價的抉擇權時

  • They want the choice to be able to continue consuming

    你同時也剝奪了人民想要的某種經濟自由

  • subsidized electric power.

    那就是他們希望能選擇繼續享有

  • So if you give just to one side or the other,

    政府補貼的電價

  • you'll have tension or friction.

    所以如果你只提供某一方選擇的自由

  • But if we can find ways to give more choices to both,

    你將面臨對立或是摩擦

  • that will give us a set of rules

    但如果我們可以想辦法給雙方更多的選擇

  • for changing rules that get us out of traps.

    我們就能發展出一套制度

  • Now, Nelson also has access to the Internet.

    來改變體制,救民於水火

  • And he says that if you want to see

    尼爾森也有網路用

  • the damaging effects of rules,

    他說如果你想見識

  • the ways that rules can keep people in the dark,

    (不良)體制的破壞力

  • look at the pictures from NASA of the earth at night.

    是如何使人民生活在黑暗中

  • In particular check out Asia.

    不妨看看美國太空總署拍攝的地球夜景

  • If you zoom in here,

    特別是亞洲

  • you can see North Korea, in outline here,

    如果拉近一點來看這裡

  • which is like a black hole compared to its neighbors.

    你可以看到北韓這塊

  • Now, you won't be surprised to learn

    跟她的鄰國比起來就像是個黑洞

  • that the rules in North Korea

    我想你不會對這樣的發現感到驚訝

  • keep people there in the dark.

    就是北韓的體制

  • But it is important to recognize

    如何陷他們的人民於黑暗之中

  • that North Korea and South Korea

    但值得我們正視的是

  • started out with identical sets of rules

    北韓和南韓

  • in both the sense of laws and regulations,

    開始時用的是同一套制度

  • but also in the deeper senses of understandings,

    無論在法條還是一般規範上

  • norms, culture, values and beliefs.

    甚至更深層的方面:認知、

  • When they separated, they made choices

    社會習俗、文化、價值觀以及信念

  • that led to very divergent paths

    但當他們分裂時,他們各自做了決定

  • for their sets of rules.

    因此在體制面走上了

  • So we can change -- we as humans can change the rules

    截然不同的道路

  • that we use to interact with each other,

    所以我們是可以改變的;人類可以改變

  • for better, or for worse.

    彼此互動的準則

  • Now let's look at another region, the Caribbean.

    儘管結果是未知數

  • Zoom in on Haiti,

    現在讓我們來看看另一區:加勒比海

  • in outline here.

    鏡頭拉到海地

  • Haiti is also dark,

    框起來的這裡

  • compared to its neighbor here, the Dominican Republic,

    海地也很暗

  • which has about the same number of residents.

    與她的鄰居多明尼加相比

  • Both of these countries are dark compared to Puerto Rico,

    二國的人口數差不多

  • which has half as many residents

    也都比波多黎各暗

  • as either Haiti or the Dominican Republic.

    而波多黎各的人口數卻只有

  • What Haiti warns us is that

    海地或多明尼加的一半

  • rules can be bad because governments are weak.

    所以海地提醒我們的是

  • It's not just that the rules are bad because

    體制之所以不良,有可能是因為政府的軟弱

  • the government is too strong and oppressive, as in North Korea.

    不見得都是因為強權或政府專制

  • So that if we want to create environments with good rules,

    像北韓的情況那樣

  • we can't just tear down.

    所以如果我們想創造一個有良好體制的環境

  • We've got to find ways to build up, as well.

    我們不能只是破壞

  • Now, China dramatically demonstrates

    還要想辦法建設

  • both the potential and the challenges

    現在,中國戲劇性地向我們展示了

  • of working with rules.

    與體制周旋時所遇到的

  • Back in the beginning of the data presented in this chart,

    危機與轉機

  • China was the world's high-technology leader.

    讓我們回這份資料的一開頭

  • Chinese had pioneered technologies like steel, printing, gunpowder.

    中國曾引領世界高科技

  • But the Chinese never adopted, at least in that period,

    中國人的科技像煉鋼、印刷、火藥等都是先驅

  • effective rules for encouraging the spread of those ideas --

    然而中國人從未採用,至少在當時

  • a profit motive that could have encouraged the spread.

    一套有效的制度來推動想法的傳播,例如

  • And they soon adopted rules which

    他們從未由利益觀點出發,來推動思想的傳播

  • slowed down innovation

    而且他們很快就採用一套制度

  • and cut China off from the rest of the world.

    來放慢自己創新的腳步

  • So as other countries in the world innovated,

    使中國與世界隔絕

  • in the sense both of developing

    所以當其他國家開始創新

  • newer technologies,

    不僅發展

  • but also developing newer rules,

    新科技

  • the Chinese were cut off from those advances.

    更建立新制度時

  • Income there stayed stagnant,

    中國卻無緣參與這些進步

  • as it zoomed ahead in the rest of the world.

    國民所得停滯不前

  • This next chart looks at more recent data.

    也不再是世界舞台的焦點

  • It plots income, average income in China

    下張圖表是比較近期的資料

  • as a percentage of average income in the United States.

    顯示的是中國的平均所得

  • In the '50s and '60s you can see that it was hovering at about three percent.

    佔美國平均所得的百分比

  • But then in the late '70s something changed.

    在50、60年代時你們可以看到這個數字大約是3%

  • Growth took off in China. The Chinese started catching up

    但到了70年代末期,情況有些改變了

  • very quickly with the United States.

    中國經濟開始起飛

  • If you go back to the map at night, you can get a clue

    中國人開始迎頭趕上美國

  • to the process that lead to the dramatic change in rules in China.

    如果你們回過來看一下這個夜景圖,就會發現

  • The brightest spot in China,

    是什麼樣的過程帶動中國體制的大轉變

  • which you can see on the edge of the outline here,

    中國最亮的這點

  • is Hong Kong.

    就是你們在輪廓邊上看到的這點

  • Hong Kong was a small bit of China

    是香港

  • that, for most of the 20th century,

    香港本來是中國領土中很小的一點

  • operated under a very different set of rules

    在20世紀大部分的時候

  • than the rest of mainland China --

    都是遵循一套很不一樣的體制在運作

  • rules that were copied

    與中國其他地方都不同

  • from working market economies of the time,

    這套制度是仿效

  • and administered by the British.

    當時盛行的, 由英國主導的

  • In the 1950s, Hong Kong was a place where

    市場經濟體制

  • millions of people could go, from the mainland,

    在50年代, 香港是一個

  • to start in jobs like sewing shirts, making toys.

    成千上萬中國人都可以去

  • But, to get on a process of increasing income,

    打工的地方, 譬如成衣業、玩具業

  • increasing skills

    而這原本只是為了增加收入

  • led to very rapid growth there.

    增進技能的過程

  • Hong Kong was also the model

    卻帶動了地方上快速的成長

  • which leaders like Deng Xiaoping

    香港當時也是一個範本

  • could copy, when they decided to move

    是讓中國領導人如鄧小平

  • all of the mainland towards the market model.

    可以拿來複製的一個對象,當他們決定

  • But Deng Xiaoping instinctively understood

    在整個中國大陸推行市場經濟

  • the importance of offering choices to his people.

    不過鄧小平直覺地了解到

  • So instead of forcing everyone in China

    提供人民選擇的重要性

  • to shift immediately to the market model,

    因此與其強迫所有人

  • they proceeded by creating some special zones

    立刻轉而支持市場經濟模式

  • that could do, in a sense, what Britain did:

    不如從設立一些特區著手

  • make the opportunity to go work with the market rules

    從某方面來說,類似英國人採用的辦法

  • available to the people who wanted to opt in there.

    使機會與市場體制結合

  • So they created four special economic zones around Hong Kong:

    讓想參與的民眾有地方可以發揮

  • zones where Chinese could come and work,

    因此他們在香港周圍建了四個經濟特區

  • and cities grew up very rapidly there;

    讓中國人民可以到這些地方工作

  • also zones where foreign firms could come in

    於是城市很快地發展起來

  • and make things.

    外國企業同樣也可以到這些特區

  • One of the zones next to Hong Kong has a city called Shenzhen.

    設點、生產製造

  • In that city there is a Taiwanese firm

    在香港旁邊的這些特區裡有個城市 - 深圳

  • that made the iPhone that many of you have,

    有台灣企業在那裡設廠

  • and they made it with labor from Chinese

    生產在座很多人都在使用的iPhone

  • who moved there to Shenzhen.

    而他們就是利用從中國其他地方來到深圳