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  • Because of what I'm about to say,

    譯者: K. C. Peng 審譯者: Nova Upinel Altesse

  • I really should establish my green credentials.

    由於我接下來所要說的,

  • When I was a small boy, I took my pledge

    我實在應該建立一點我的綠色憑證。

  • as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste

    當我還是一個小男孩時,我曾向自己立下誓言

  • the natural resources of my country,

    作為一個美國人,我要保存我的國家

  • its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.

    要忠實捍衛我國自然資源,免於浪費

  • And I've stuck to that.

    要保存這片土地上的空氣,土壤,礦物,森林,水,和野生動物

  • Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.

    而我也堅守這個承諾

  • 1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.

    在史丹福大學,我主修生態學和演化論

  • And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.

    1968年我創辦雜誌《Whole Earth Catalog》。有人叫我了一陣子"自然先生"

  • The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,

    接着我替Jerry Brown政府做事

  • basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,

    Jerry Brown的團隊和我一群朋友

  • so it's the same now, 30 years later,

    成功地提升整個加州的能源效率

  • even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.

    同現在三十年後的水準一樣,

  • And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.

    儘管我們的經濟在人均發展上已成長了百分之八十

  • California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.

    我們的溫室氣體排放比任何其他州都還要低

  • This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,

    加州在現在的排放水平基本上與歐洲相等

  • called Whole Earth Discipline.

    我預告一下今年《Whole Earth Catalog》要出的特刊

  • The dominant demographic event of our time

    標題叫"全球紀律"

  • is this screamingly rapid urbanization

    我們這時代最重要的人口事件

  • that we have going on.

    就是持續驚人的

  • By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,

    都市化速度

  • and that's mostly in the developing world,

    到本世紀中葉我們將有百分之八十的人口聚居在城市

  • where that's happening.

    而且大多數都會發生在

  • It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree

    開發中國家。

  • by the size of cities.

    這很有趣。因為歷史在很大程度上都是由

  • The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,

    城市的規模所推動的。

  • and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,

    現在,發展中國家擁有所有這些最大的城市

  • and nine times bigger.

    它們正以已開發國家三倍的速度成長中

  • It's qualitatively different.

    而且相當於九倍大的規模

  • They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.

    這在質的方面是不同的

  • 1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.

    它們是歷史的推動者,正如我們所看到的人類歷史

  • Well we now have a distribution of urban power

    1000多年前,世界看起來是這個樣子的

  • similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.

    現在我們有城市供電網

  • In other words, the rise of the West,

    我們1000多年前是差不多的

  • dramatic as it was, is over.

    換句話說,西方的興起,

  • The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:

    過去戲劇性的一切,已經結束了

  • 1.3 million people a week coming to town,

    壓倒性的總人口數是絕對無法抵擋的

  • decade after decade.

    每週130萬人來到城裡

  • What's really going on?

    年復一年

  • Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.

    這是怎麼一回事?

  • Subsistence farming is drying up basically.

    實際上,全世界的村落都已經空無一人

  • People are following opportunity into town.

    自給自足的農業基本上全枯竭了

  • And this is why.

    人們進城找機會

  • I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,

    這就是原因。

  • and it's because I never lived in one.

    我以前對農村一直懷有非常浪漫的想像,

  • (Laughter)

    因為我從來沒住過那。

  • Because in town --

    (笑聲)

  • this is the bustling squatter city

    由於在城裡--

  • of Kibera, near Nairobi --

    這是位於基貝拉的一個熱鬧的貧民區大城

  • they see action. They see opportunity.

    靠近肯亞的首都奈洛比--

  • They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in

    他們看到許許多多的機會

  • back in the subsistence farm.

    他們看到在過去的農場生活中

  • As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.

    無法參與的金錢活動。

  • There is plenty going on.

    當你走過這些地方時,你會發現許多美麗的事

  • They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.

    一堆事情正在發生

  • The aggregate numbers now

    他們貧窮,但他們高度地城市化。他們有豐富的創造性。

  • are that basically squatters,

    現在的總人數

  • all one billion of them, are building the urban world,

    基本上都住在棚戶區,

  • which means they're building the world --

    這些所有十億人,正在建立一個都市化的世界

  • personally, one by one, family by family,

    這意謂著他們正在建造這個世界。

  • clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.

    一人接一人,一家接一家

  • They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.

    一族接一族,鄰里接社區

  • They even build their own infrastructure.

    一開始,他們的生活不穩妥,但隨著時間的推移,他們愈來愈堅實

  • Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.

    他們甚至建立屬於自己的基礎設施

  • Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.

    嗯,或者說,先偷來自己的基礎設施

  • And then gradually gentrifies.

    有線電視、水,全偷走

  • It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,

    然後他們逐漸改善

  • not the working slums; they help create prosperity.

    有人說貧民窟破壞發展,但情況並非如此

  • So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,

    事實上,貧民窟幫助創造繁榮

  • it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.

    所以像孟買這樣一個城市,幾乎一半都是貧民窟,

  • Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.

    它卻佔印度 1/6 的國內生產總值

  • These people are valuable as a group.

    貧民窟裡的社會資本,以其最高度都市化與密集的方式發展

  • And that's how they work.

    他們是寶貴的一群人

  • There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,

    而這是他們工作的方式

  • "Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."

    許多人想到這些窮人,第一個念頭就是

  • It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."

    「噢這真是可怕的事,我們必須解決他們的住房問題」

  • Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.

    還有:「噢,我們得趕緊讓他們取得電話服務」

  • Famine mostly is a rural event now.

    現在,他們向我們表明了如何取得自己的電話服務了

  • There are things they care about.

    今天飢荒多半僅發生在農村

  • And this is where we can help.

    事實上,他們憂慮一些事物

  • And the nations they're in can help.

    而這些事是我們可以幫助的地方

  • And they are helping each other solve these issues.

    國家可以對他們提供幫助

  • And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.

    他們也互相幫助,解決這些問題

  • You look at that lane on the right.

    如果你到一個稍微密集的地方,像這個在孟買的貧民窟

  • And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"

    你看圖中右側的這條道路

  • The answer is, "Everything."

    你會想問:「這到底是怎麼一回事?」

  • This is better than a mall. It's much denser.

    答案是:「所有一切」

  • It's much more interactive.

    這比商場還棒。它的密度大多了

  • And the scale is terrific.

    人與人更為互動

  • The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.

    而且規模驚人

  • These are people busy getting out of poverty

    主要活動是,這些都不是被貧困壓垮的人

  • just as fast as they can.

    而是一群忙著擺脫貧困的人

  • They're helping each other do it.

    他們盡其所能地迅速

  • They're doing it through an outlaw thing,

    他們互相幫助

  • the informal economy.

    他們透過違法的方式完成

  • The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:

    非正規經濟

  • it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.

    這非正式的經濟就像天體物理學中的暗能量

  • We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.

    不應該在那,但它是巨大的

  • Furthermore, people in the informal economy,

    我們不明白它是如何運作的,但我們必須明白

  • the gray economy --

    此外,在非正規經濟中

  • as time goes by,

    灰色經濟

  • crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,

    隨著時間的推移

  • or they can join the legitimate world.

    犯罪愈來愈頻仍,他們也可以加入犯罪的世界

  • We should be able to make that choice

    或者他們可以參與合法的世界

  • easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,

    我們應該能夠作出這樣的選擇

  • because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.

    使他們較容易走向合法的世界

  • There's all kinds of activity.

    因為如果我們不這樣做,他們會走向犯罪的世界

  • In Dharavi the slum performs not only

    那裡有各樣的活動

  • a lot of services for itself,

    在Dharavi 貧民窟不僅

  • but it performs services for the city at large.

    提供許多服務

  • And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.

    它也為城市提供一般服務

  • Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers

    而其中一個主要事件是這些特殊學校

  • to a private, tiny, unofficial school.

    家長花錢聘請一些地方教師

  • Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.

    給一個私人,小的,非官方的學校

  • So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.

    在城市中教育是更有機會。並且改變了世界

  • So one thing slammed up against another,

    所以你看到一些有趣的,典型的,城市的東西

  • such as in Sao Paulo here.

    因此,有一些事衝撞了另一件事

  • That's what cities do. That's how they create value,

    就像在聖保羅這裡

  • is by slamming things together.

    這就是城市所做的事。這就是他們把所有事物擠壓在一起

  • In this case, supply right next to demand.

    創造的價值的方式

  • So the maids and the gardeners and the guards

    在這的例子中,供給接續著需求

  • that live in this lively part of town on the left

    因此女傭、園丁和警衛

  • walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.

    生活在這熱鬧城市的左邊部分

  • Proximity is amazing.

    走路去富裕卻沉悶的鄰近社區上班

  • We are learning about how dense proximity can be.

    它們距離這麼接近是很驚人的

  • Connectivity between the city and the country

    我們正在學習如此緊密相鄰是如何可能的

  • is what's going to keep the country good,

    連接城市和國家

  • because the city has interesting ways of doing things.

    使國家保持良好

  • This is what makes cities --

    由於城市以有趣的方式做事情

  • (Applause)

    這是構成城市的要素--

  • this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.

    (掌聲)

  • Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster

    這是使發展中國家的城市變得如此绿化的因素

  • of subsistence farms, and head to town.

    由於人們脫離貧窮陷阱, 生態的變化

  • And when they're gone the natural environment

    衝擊自耕農 轉進城市發展

  • starts to come back very rapidly.

    當農耕離開 自然環境

  • And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops

    會開始很快的恢復

  • to send food to the new growing markets in town.

    而留在村莊的就可選種較有經濟價值的作物

  • So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,

    賣食物到新城市內的壯大市場

  • or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.

    要救一個村莊 就是建條好的聯絡道路

  • So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.

    或是好的無線電話網路 更好的是一些電力供應網路

  • More than half.

    看到的是 我們就是城市的行星

  • The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.

    超過一半

  • Another billion is expected.

    這數字是可觀的 10億人正生活在擁擠的城市

  • That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.

    另外 10 億人也預計會

  • And that will determine a lot of how we function.

    那是超過1/6的人類 生活著同一種方式

  • Now, for us environmentalists,

    那就會決定我們如何運作

  • maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.

    對我們這些環境保護工作者

  • People get into town.

    或許城市最綠色的發展 是能緩和人口之增加

  • The immediately have fewer children.

    人們來到城裡

  • They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of

    立即會減少生育

  • coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,

    他們不需要先變得富有 機會自然發生

  • and the birthrate goes down radically.

    他們可以有較少又較佳的孩子

  • Very interesting side effect here,

    生育率迅速下降

  • here's a slide from Phillip Longman.

    非常有趣的副作用發生

  • Shows what is happening.

    這張照片是來自 Phillip Longman

  • As we have more and more old people, like me,

    顯示發生什麼事

  • and fewer and fewer babies.

    我們有愈來愈多的老人佔比

  • And they are regionally separated.

    與愈來愈少的嬰兒

  • What you're getting is a world which is

    他們還是有區域性的分割

  • old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,

    得到的是

  • in the north.

    老人 老城市 從事著舊有活動

  • And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,

    近北邊

  • doing new things, in the south.

    年輕的 都擠進他們創造的年輕城市

  • Where do you think the action is going to be?

    在南邊 從事新活動

  • Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.

    你們知道是哪些新活動呢?

  • The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse

    暫偏主題 看一下氣候問題

  • than we think, faster than we think.

    關於氣候 我很抱歉的說 只會比我們以為的

  • Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,

    更加惡化的 更加劇烈急速

  • full of runaway positive feedbacks,

    氣候是非常複雜的 非線性變化的

  • hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.

    到處都是亂竄的正向反饋

  • Here's just a few samples.

    隱藏的門檻 與 不可逆的反轉點

  • We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all

    這裡就只是幾個例子

  • the surprises are going to be bad ones.

    我們會持續感到意外的

  • From your standpoint this means

    最出乎意料的都是些壞事

  • a great increase in climate refugees

    從你的觀點

  • over the coming decades,

    會有更多的氣候變遷難民

  • and what goes along with that, which is resource wars

    就在未來的數十年

  • and chaos wars,

    伴隨著 就是搶資源的戰爭

  • as we're seeing in Darfur.

    與 混沌不明的戰爭

  • That's what drought does.

    就像發生在 Darfur

  • It brings carrying capacity down,

    只因為乾旱造成

  • and there's not enough carrying capacity

    拖垮公權力

  • to support the people. And then you're in trouble.

    沒有足夠的公權力

  • Shift to the power situation.

    來幫助人民 只有混亂了

  • Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,

    來說說電力的問題

  • or a city planet.

    基載電力就是用來讓城市運作的

  • So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:

    或說我們整個星球

  • coal, some gas,

    目前僅有三種來源是基載電力

  • nuclear and hydro.

    煤 與一些天然氣 構成的 火力發電

  • Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.

    核能發電 水力發電

  • Coal is what is causing the climate problems.

    之中 僅有核能與水力是綠色的

  • And everyone will keep burning it

    燃煤就是造成氣候的問題

  • because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.

    每個人將還是繼續燒煤

  • Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.

    因為它是如此便宜 直到政府能讓它變貴

  • So with hydro maxed out,

    風力與太陽能難有助益 因我們還沒有個好方式儲存能量

  • coal and lose the climate,

    由於水力已到開發上限

  • or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,

    燃煤會惡化氣候

  • and maybe save the climate.

    核能產出極低的碳排放

  • And if we can eventually get good solar in space,

    就或許能挽救氣候異常

  • that also could help.

    若我們真的能有太空中的太陽光電發電

  • Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world

    那就真是大幫手了

  • in the villages and in the cities.

    因為 這些才是能為開發中國家創造繁榮的

  • So, between coal and nuclear,

    不管是鄉村或城市

  • compare their waste products.

    所以比較燃煤與核能

  • If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,

    看他們的廢棄產生

  • the amount of waste that would be added up

    這輩子一個人能用掉的電力 若是來自核能

  • would fit in a Coke can.

    那核能廢棄物加總起來

  • Whereas a coal-burning plant,

    只有可樂罐子的大小

  • a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,

    若是來自燃煤

  • each car having 100 tons.

    一個10億瓦等級的電廠 是要每天燒去80節火車廂的煤

  • And it puts 18 thousand tons

    每節車有100公噸的煤

  • of carbon dioxide in the air.

    這個廠每天排放1萬8千噸的

  • So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions

    二氧化碳到大氣層

  • of these various energy forms,

    所以比較這一輩子用電

  • nuclear is about even with solar and wind,

    各種形式的排放量

  • and ahead of solar --

    核能約與太陽光電與風力相當

  • oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.

    勝過太陽光電

  • And does nuclear really compete with coal?

    喔! 抱歉是約與水力與風力相當 勝過太陽光電

  • Just ask the coal miners in Australia.

    是不是核能真的能贏過燃煤

  • That's where you see some of the source,

    問問那些澳大利亞的煤礦曠工

  • not from my fellow environmentalists,

    會得到些消息來源

  • but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.

    不是從我的環保團體

  • Well the good news is that

    而是來自因核能而備受威脅的人

  • the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,

    好消息是這個

  • is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.

    開發中國家 坦白說是 所有國家

  • This is good for the atmosphere.

    都急忙於建構核能發電廠

  • It's good for their prosperity.

    對大氣層是好的

  • I want to point out one interesting thing,

    對他們的繁榮是好的

  • which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.

    我需要指出一件有趣的事

  • It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,

    環保團體喜歡所謂的 微電力系統

  • and good things like that.

    就是 座落於當地的 太陽 風力 或 汽電共生

  • But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,

    等等的 發電系統

  • might serve even better.

    實際上 微型反應爐 就快問世

  • The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,

    能提供更佳的方案

  • for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.

    俄國人士最早發展這個的 正再建造一漂移的反應爐

  • And they're selling these floating reactors,

    在俄國北邊的水路通道 持續耗電溶解冰

  • only 35 megawatts, to developing countries.

    他們也出售 這種浮動反應爐

  • Here's the design of an early one from Toshiba.

    約3千5百萬瓦 給開發中國家

  • It's interesting, say, to take a 25-megawatt,

    這是Toshiba早期的設計

  • 25 million watts,

    這是非常有意思的 用

  • and you compare it to the standard big iron

    2千5 百萬瓦發電量

  • of an ordinary Westinghouse or Ariva,

    與標準的Westinghouse 或是 Ariva的

  • which is 1.2, 1.6 billion watts.

    大反應爐相比

  • These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable.

    動輒12 或 16億瓦

  • Here's an American design from Lawrence Livermore Lab.

    這些是更小的設計 更能應付各式情況