I really should establish my green credentials.

由於我接下來所要說的，

When I was a small boy, I took my pledge

我實在應該建立一點我的綠色憑證。

as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste

當我還是一個小男孩時，我曾向自己立下誓言

the natural resources of my country,

作為一個美國人，我要保存我的國家

its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.

要忠實捍衛我國自然資源，免於浪費

And I've stuck to that.

要保存這片土地上的空氣，土壤，礦物，森林，水，和野生動物

Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.

而我也堅守這個承諾

1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.

在史丹福大學，我主修生態學和演化論

And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.

1968年我創辦雜誌《Whole Earth Catalog》。有人叫我了一陣子"自然先生"

The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,

接着我替Jerry Brown政府做事

basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,

Jerry Brown的團隊和我一群朋友

so it's the same now, 30 years later,

成功地提升整個加州的能源效率

even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.

同現在三十年後的水準一樣，

And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.

儘管我們的經濟在人均發展上已成長了百分之八十

California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.

我們的溫室氣體排放比任何其他州都還要低

This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,

加州在現在的排放水平基本上與歐洲相等

called Whole Earth Discipline.

我預告一下今年《Whole Earth Catalog》要出的特刊

The dominant demographic event of our time

標題叫"全球紀律"

is this screamingly rapid urbanization

我們這時代最重要的人口事件

that we have going on.

就是持續驚人的

By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,

都市化速度

and that's mostly in the developing world,

到本世紀中葉我們將有百分之八十的人口聚居在城市

where that's happening.

而且大多數都會發生在

It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree

開發中國家。

by the size of cities.

這很有趣。因為歷史在很大程度上都是由

The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,

城市的規模所推動的。

and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,

現在，發展中國家擁有所有這些最大的城市

and nine times bigger.

它們正以已開發國家三倍的速度成長中

It's qualitatively different.

而且相當於九倍大的規模

They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.

這在質的方面是不同的

1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.

它們是歷史的推動者，正如我們所看到的人類歷史

Well we now have a distribution of urban power

1000多年前，世界看起來是這個樣子的

similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.

現在我們有城市供電網

In other words, the rise of the West,

我們1000多年前是差不多的

dramatic as it was, is over.

換句話說，西方的興起，

The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:

過去戲劇性的一切，已經結束了

1.3 million people a week coming to town,

壓倒性的總人口數是絕對無法抵擋的

decade after decade.

每週130萬人來到城裡

What's really going on?

年復一年

Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.

這是怎麼一回事？

Subsistence farming is drying up basically.

實際上，全世界的村落都已經空無一人

People are following opportunity into town.

自給自足的農業基本上全枯竭了

And this is why.

人們進城找機會

I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,

這就是原因。

and it's because I never lived in one.

我以前對農村一直懷有非常浪漫的想像，

(Laughter)

因為我從來沒住過那。

Because in town --

（笑聲）

this is the bustling squatter city

由於在城裡--

of Kibera, near Nairobi --

這是位於基貝拉的一個熱鬧的貧民區大城

they see action. They see opportunity.

靠近肯亞的首都奈洛比--

They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in

他們看到許許多多的機會

back in the subsistence farm.

他們看到在過去的農場生活中

As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.

無法參與的金錢活動。

There is plenty going on.

當你走過這些地方時，你會發現許多美麗的事

They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.

一堆事情正在發生

The aggregate numbers now

他們貧窮，但他們高度地城市化。他們有豐富的創造性。

are that basically squatters,

現在的總人數

all one billion of them, are building the urban world,

基本上都住在棚戶區，

which means they're building the world --

這些所有十億人，正在建立一個都市化的世界

personally, one by one, family by family,

這意謂著他們正在建造這個世界。

clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.

一人接一人，一家接一家

They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.

一族接一族，鄰里接社區

They even build their own infrastructure.

一開始，他們的生活不穩妥，但隨著時間的推移，他們愈來愈堅實

Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.

他們甚至建立屬於自己的基礎設施

Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.

嗯，或者說，先偷來自己的基礎設施

And then gradually gentrifies.

有線電視、水，全偷走

It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,

然後他們逐漸改善

not the working slums; they help create prosperity.

有人說貧民窟破壞發展，但情況並非如此

So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,

事實上，貧民窟幫助創造繁榮

it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.

所以像孟買這樣一個城市，幾乎一半都是貧民窟，

Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.

它卻佔印度 1/6 的國內生產總值

These people are valuable as a group.

貧民窟裡的社會資本，以其最高度都市化與密集的方式發展

And that's how they work.

他們是寶貴的一群人

There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,

而這是他們工作的方式

"Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."

許多人想到這些窮人，第一個念頭就是

It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."

「噢這真是可怕的事，我們必須解決他們的住房問題」

Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.

還有：「噢，我們得趕緊讓他們取得電話服務」

Famine mostly is a rural event now.

現在，他們向我們表明了如何取得自己的電話服務了

There are things they care about.

今天飢荒多半僅發生在農村

And this is where we can help.

事實上，他們憂慮一些事物

And the nations they're in can help.

而這些事是我們可以幫助的地方

And they are helping each other solve these issues.

國家可以對他們提供幫助

And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.

他們也互相幫助，解決這些問題

You look at that lane on the right.

如果你到一個稍微密集的地方，像這個在孟買的貧民窟

And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"

你看圖中右側的這條道路

The answer is, "Everything."

你會想問：「這到底是怎麼一回事？」

This is better than a mall. It's much denser.

答案是：「所有一切」

It's much more interactive.

這比商場還棒。它的密度大多了

And the scale is terrific.

人與人更為互動

The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.

而且規模驚人

These are people busy getting out of poverty

主要活動是，這些都不是被貧困壓垮的人

just as fast as they can.

而是一群忙著擺脫貧困的人

They're helping each other do it.

他們盡其所能地迅速

They're doing it through an outlaw thing,

他們互相幫助

the informal economy.

他們透過違法的方式完成

The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:

非正規經濟

it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.

這非正式的經濟就像天體物理學中的暗能量

We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.

不應該在那，但它是巨大的

Furthermore, people in the informal economy,

我們不明白它是如何運作的，但我們必須明白

the gray economy --

此外，在非正規經濟中

as time goes by,

灰色經濟

crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,

隨著時間的推移

or they can join the legitimate world.

犯罪愈來愈頻仍，他們也可以加入犯罪的世界

We should be able to make that choice

或者他們可以參與合法的世界

easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,

我們應該能夠作出這樣的選擇

because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.

使他們較容易走向合法的世界

There's all kinds of activity.

因為如果我們不這樣做，他們會走向犯罪的世界

In Dharavi the slum performs not only

那裡有各樣的活動

a lot of services for itself,

在Dharavi 貧民窟不僅

but it performs services for the city at large.

提供許多服務

And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.

它也為城市提供一般服務

Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers

而其中一個主要事件是這些特殊學校

to a private, tiny, unofficial school.

家長花錢聘請一些地方教師

Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.

給一個私人，小的，非官方的學校

So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.

在城市中教育是更有機會。並且改變了世界

So one thing slammed up against another,

所以你看到一些有趣的，典型的，城市的東西

such as in Sao Paulo here.

因此，有一些事衝撞了另一件事

That's what cities do. That's how they create value,

就像在聖保羅這裡

is by slamming things together.

這就是城市所做的事。這就是他們把所有事物擠壓在一起

In this case, supply right next to demand.

創造的價值的方式

So the maids and the gardeners and the guards

在這的例子中，供給接續著需求

that live in this lively part of town on the left

因此女傭、園丁和警衛

walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.

生活在這熱鬧城市的左邊部分

Proximity is amazing.

走路去富裕卻沉悶的鄰近社區上班

We are learning about how dense proximity can be.

它們距離這麼接近是很驚人的

Connectivity between the city and the country

我們正在學習如此緊密相鄰是如何可能的

is what's going to keep the country good,

連接城市和國家

because the city has interesting ways of doing things.

使國家保持良好

This is what makes cities --

由於城市以有趣的方式做事情

(Applause)

這是構成城市的要素--

this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.

（掌聲）

Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster

這是使發展中國家的城市變得如此绿化的因素

of subsistence farms, and head to town.

由於人們脫離貧窮陷阱, 生態的變化

And when they're gone the natural environment

衝擊自耕農 轉進城市發展

starts to come back very rapidly.

當農耕離開 自然環境

And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops

會開始很快的恢復

to send food to the new growing markets in town.

而留在村莊的就可選種較有經濟價值的作物

So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,

賣食物到新城市內的壯大市場

or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.

要救一個村莊 就是建條好的聯絡道路

So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.

或是好的無線電話網路 更好的是一些電力供應網路

More than half.

看到的是 我們就是城市的行星

The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.

超過一半

Another billion is expected.

這數字是可觀的 10億人正生活在擁擠的城市

That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.

另外 10 億人也預計會

And that will determine a lot of how we function.

那是超過1/6的人類 生活著同一種方式

Now, for us environmentalists,

那就會決定我們如何運作

maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.

對我們這些環境保護工作者

People get into town.

或許城市最綠色的發展 是能緩和人口之增加

The immediately have fewer children.

人們來到城裡

They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of

立即會減少生育

coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,

他們不需要先變得富有 機會自然發生

and the birthrate goes down radically.

他們可以有較少又較佳的孩子

Very interesting side effect here,

生育率迅速下降

here's a slide from Phillip Longman.

非常有趣的副作用發生

Shows what is happening.

這張照片是來自 Phillip Longman

As we have more and more old people, like me,

顯示發生什麼事

and fewer and fewer babies.

我們有愈來愈多的老人佔比

And they are regionally separated.

與愈來愈少的嬰兒

What you're getting is a world which is

他們還是有區域性的分割

old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,

得到的是

in the north.

老人 老城市 從事著舊有活動

And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,

近北邊

doing new things, in the south.

年輕的 都擠進他們創造的年輕城市

Where do you think the action is going to be?

在南邊 從事新活動

Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.

你們知道是哪些新活動呢?

The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse

暫偏主題 看一下氣候問題

than we think, faster than we think.

關於氣候 我很抱歉的說 只會比我們以為的

Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,

更加惡化的 更加劇烈急速

full of runaway positive feedbacks,

氣候是非常複雜的 非線性變化的

hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.

到處都是亂竄的正向反饋

Here's just a few samples.

隱藏的門檻 與 不可逆的反轉點

We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all

這裡就只是幾個例子

the surprises are going to be bad ones.

我們會持續感到意外的

From your standpoint this means

最出乎意料的都是些壞事

a great increase in climate refugees

從你的觀點

over the coming decades,

會有更多的氣候變遷難民

and what goes along with that, which is resource wars

就在未來的數十年

and chaos wars,

伴隨著 就是搶資源的戰爭

as we're seeing in Darfur.

與 混沌不明的戰爭

That's what drought does.

就像發生在 Darfur

It brings carrying capacity down,

只因為乾旱造成

and there's not enough carrying capacity

拖垮公權力

to support the people. And then you're in trouble.

沒有足夠的公權力

Shift to the power situation.

來幫助人民 只有混亂了

Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,

來說說電力的問題

or a city planet.

基載電力就是用來讓城市運作的

So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:

或說我們整個星球

coal, some gas,

目前僅有三種來源是基載電力

nuclear and hydro.

煤 與一些天然氣 構成的 火力發電

Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.

核能發電 水力發電

Coal is what is causing the climate problems.

之中 僅有核能與水力是綠色的

And everyone will keep burning it

燃煤就是造成氣候的問題

because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.

每個人將還是繼續燒煤

Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.

因為它是如此便宜 直到政府能讓它變貴

So with hydro maxed out,

風力與太陽能難有助益 因我們還沒有個好方式儲存能量

coal and lose the climate,

由於水力已到開發上限

or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,

燃煤會惡化氣候

and maybe save the climate.

核能產出極低的碳排放

And if we can eventually get good solar in space,

就或許能挽救氣候異常

that also could help.

若我們真的能有太空中的太陽光電發電

Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world

那就真是大幫手了

in the villages and in the cities.

因為 這些才是能為開發中國家創造繁榮的

So, between coal and nuclear,

不管是鄉村或城市

compare their waste products.

所以比較燃煤與核能

If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,

看他們的廢棄產生

the amount of waste that would be added up

這輩子一個人能用掉的電力 若是來自核能

would fit in a Coke can.

那核能廢棄物加總起來

Whereas a coal-burning plant,

只有可樂罐子的大小

a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,

若是來自燃煤

each car having 100 tons.

一個10億瓦等級的電廠 是要每天燒去80節火車廂的煤

And it puts 18 thousand tons

每節車有100公噸的煤

of carbon dioxide in the air.

這個廠每天排放1萬8千噸的

So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions

二氧化碳到大氣層

of these various energy forms,

所以比較這一輩子用電

nuclear is about even with solar and wind,

各種形式的排放量

and ahead of solar --

核能約與太陽光電與風力相當

oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.

勝過太陽光電

And does nuclear really compete with coal?

喔! 抱歉是約與水力與風力相當 勝過太陽光電

Just ask the coal miners in Australia.

是不是核能真的能贏過燃煤

That's where you see some of the source,

問問那些澳大利亞的煤礦曠工

not from my fellow environmentalists,

會得到些消息來源

but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.

不是從我的環保團體

Well the good news is that

而是來自因核能而備受威脅的人

the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,

好消息是這個

is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.

開發中國家 坦白說是 所有國家

This is good for the atmosphere.

都急忙於建構核能發電廠

It's good for their prosperity.

對大氣層是好的

I want to point out one interesting thing,

對他們的繁榮是好的

which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.

我需要指出一件有趣的事

It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,

環保團體喜歡所謂的 微電力系統

and good things like that.

就是 座落於當地的 太陽 風力 或 汽電共生

But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,

等等的 發電系統

might serve even better.

實際上 微型反應爐 就快問世

The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,

能提供更佳的方案

for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.