and bring up the lights a little bit. I don't have any slides.

生命的未來，以及生物的奧秘一次次揭開──

I'm just going to talk --

把燈開亮一點，我不用投影片

about where that's likely to carry us.

只是要和大家談談─

And you know, I saw all the visions

這些將把我們帶向何方。

of the first couple of sessions.

我聽了最開始兩部分的演講

It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk

聽了裡面的那些觀點。

about the future.

讓我有一點罪惡感，因為我今天的這場演講

It felt wrong to do that in some way.

對未來持以樂觀的態度。

And yet, I don't really think it is

這樣做感覺不太對。

because when it comes down to it,

但是我確實認為未來充滿希望，

it's this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain --

因為煙消雲散的那天

what people in the future are going to remember about this period.

只有大方向被記得

I want to talk to you a little bit about

這才是未來會記住這個時代的地方

why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins,

我想要說的是，

who would like to ban these sorts of technologies,

為什麼Jeremy Rivkins提出的

or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,

禁止這些技術的要求

are actually -- to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.

或是Bill Joys放棄這些技術的想法，

I'm focusing on biology,

對我們來說才是一場悲劇。

the biological sciences.

我會把重點放在生物學

The reason I'm doing that is because those are going to be

和生物科學上面。

the areas that are the most significant to us.

因為這兩個領域

The reason for that is really very simple.

對我們來說將最為關鍵。

It's because we're flesh and blood.

其中原因非常簡單，

We're biological creatures.

因為我們都是血肉之軀

And what we can do with our biology

我們都是生物。

is going to shape our future

我們在生物學上的造化

and that of our children and that of their children --

將決定我們自己

whether we gain control over aging,

以及子孫後代的未來──

whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer's,

比如能否控制衰老，

and heart disease, and cancer.

能否防治老人癡呆症

I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.

心臟病，以及癌症。

And I'm actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.

我覺得莎翁有段話說得不錯。

(Laughter)

照搬一下他老人家的一字一句。

He said, "And so from hour to hour

（笑聲）

we ripe and ripe.

他說，“因此時間一點點流逝，

And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.

我們一點點成熟。

And thereby hangs a tale."

時間繼續一點點流逝，我們一點點老去。

Life is short, you know.

故事這樣發生了。”

And we need to think about planning a little bit.

人生苦短。

We're all going to eventually, even in the developed world,

所以我們要好好規劃。

going to have to lose everything that we love.

即便科學非常發達，最終我們仍將

When you're beginning to rot a little bit,

失去摯愛的一切。

all of the videos crammed into your head,

當我們開始老去的時候，

all of the extensions that extend your various powers,

所有湧入你腦海的一幕幕，

are going to being to seem a little secondary.

所有外在的能力、權力等等，

And you know, I'm getting a little bit gray -- so is Ray Kurzweil,

都變得次要起來。

so is Eric Drexler.

你們可以看到，我變得有點悲觀了，Ray Kurzweil也是，

This is where it's really central to our lives.

還有Eric Drexler。

Now I know there's been a whole lot of hype

這才是我們生命的核心。

about our power to control biology.

現在我瞭解到，我們對生物學的控制能力

You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.

並不像傳言所說的那樣強大。

It wasn't two years ago

只要看下人類基因工程你就知道了。

that everybody was talking about --

只不過兩年前，

we've found the Holy Grail of biology.

人們就在說

We're deciphering the code of codes.

我們已經掌握了生物學的關鍵，

We're reading the book of life.

我們已經破譯了基因密碼，

It's a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon,

我們正在閱讀生命之書。

and everybody was about to race out toward the stars.

這有點像1969年阿姆斯壯登錄月球時的情境，

And we've all seen "2001: A Space Odyssey."

每個人都以為我們要奔向外星球了。

You know it's 2003, and there is no HAL.

我們都看過電影《2001太空漫游》

And there is no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.

可是現在都2003了，電影裡的超智能電腦仍然不見蹤影。

And we're still picking up pieces of the Challenger.

我們還不能在月球上漫步，更別說木星的衛星了。

So it's not surprising that some people would wonder

我們仍然在尋找挑戰者號的殘骸。

whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now,

所以不奇怪，有的人會懷疑

we'll look back at this instant in time,

是不是等到三四十年以後，

and all of the sort of talk about

我們回顧當年的時候

the Human Genome Project,

如今這些各種各樣的演講，

and what all this is going to mean to us --

有的關於人類基因工程，

well, it will really mean precious little.

有的關於人類基因工程對我們的意義，

And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.

都會顯得微不足道。

Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology,

我想說的是這絕對不可能。

and modifying and altering and adjusting these things,

因為當我們談及遺傳學與生物學，

we're talking about changing ourselves.

以及在其中進行修飾、改變、調整的時候，

And this is very critical stuff.

我們談的其實是改變自己。

If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives,

這是非常重要的一點。

you just have to go to any major city.

如果你還不能確定科技如何影響我們的生活，

This is not the stomping ground

你只要隨便去哪座大城市看一看。

of our Pleistocene ancestors.

這已完全不同於我們數萬年前的祖先

What's happening is we're taking this technology --

生活的那片土地了。

it's becoming more precise, more potent --

如今，人類利用科技，

and we're turning it back upon ourselves.

科技比原先更加精確，也更有威力，

Before it's all done

我們要把它用在自己身上。

we are going to alter ourselves

下一步，

every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.

我們要一點一點地改變自己，

It's going to happen a lot sooner

就像改變周遭世界一樣。

than people imagine.

這很快就會發生，

On the way there it's going to

遠比人們想象的要快。

completely revolutionize medicine and health care; that's obvious.

改變人類自己的過程中，

It's going to change the way we have children.

醫療保健會徹底改革。這是顯而易見的。

It's going to change the way we manage

生育子女的方式會改變。

and alter our emotions.

我們控制和改變自己情緒

It's going to probably change the human lifespan.

的方式也會改變。

It will really make us question

還有人類壽命，也許也會改變。

what it is to be a human being.

這讓我們不禁要問

The larger context of this is that are

人類到底是什麼。

two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.

大環境就是

The first of them is the obvious one,

兩場前所未有的革命正在進行。

the silicon revolution,

第一場革命顯而易見，

which you all are very, very familiar with.

是矽土半導體的電子革命

It's changing our lives in so many ways,

大家都非常之熟悉。

and it will continue to do that.

它從很多方面改變著我們的生活，

What the essence of that is, is that we're taking

而且還會繼續改變我們。

the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet,

說到底就是，我們利用

and we're breathing a level of complexity into it

腳邊的砂石和不活躍的矽元素，

that rivals that of life itself,

然後賦予它們一定的復雜性，

and may even surpass it.

這和生命本身的復雜性相當，

As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution,

甚至更加復雜。

is the revolution in biology.

這場革命的衍生物，如同它的下一代，

The genomics revolution,

就是生物學革命。

proteomics, metabolomics, all of these "omics"

基因革命、

that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.

蛋白質體、代謝體，所有這些生物科學名詞

What we're doing is we are

在撥款補助和商業計劃中都顯得非常漂亮。

seizing control of our evolutionary future.

我們現在

I mean we're essentially using technology

想要控制住革命性的未來。

to just jam evolution into fast-forward.

我的意思是，實際上我們是用科技

It's not at all clear where it's going to take us.

向前推動革命。

But in five to ten years we're going to start see

我們到底會走向何方，仍然是個未知數。

some very profound changes.

但是五到十年之內，我們會逐漸看到

The most immediate changes that we'll see

一些深遠的改變。

are things like in medicine.

其中最先改變的

There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine

是諸如醫療等方面。

as we start to be able to identify

我們的重心會轉向預防，

all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.

因為我們開始認識到

But who is going to pay for all this?

個體發病的潛在原因。

And how are we going to understand all this complex information?

但是誰來為這一切買單呢？

That is going to be the IT challenge

我們怎樣才能理解這些復雜的信息呢？

of the next generation, is communicating all this information.

這將是下一代的IT挑戰，

There's pharmacogenomics, the combination of pharmacology

也就是傳播信息。

and genetics:

藥物學和遺傳學的結合──

tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions

藥物遺傳學

that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.

根據人的個體特徵製造藥物，

That's going to have amazing impacts.

剛剛胡安提到了這點。

And it's going to be used for diet as well,

藥物遺傳學會產生奇妙的改變。

and nutritional supplements and such.

還會被用於飲食，

But it's going to have a big impact because

營養補充劑等等。

we're going to have niche drugs.

但還有一個很大的影響，

And we aren't going to be able to support

因為以後不同的人用不同的藥，

the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.

與現在大規模制藥不可同日而語，

The approval process is going to fall apart, actually.

成本過高，我們難以支付。

It's too slow.

藥品批審過程將會改變

It's too risk-averse.

現在太慢了。

And it is really not suited for the future

太保守了，

that we're moving into.

與我們即將進入的未來

Another thing is that we're just going to have to deal with this knowledge.

實在不相符。

It's really wonderful when we hear,

另一點就是我們還要處理這麼一個問題。

"Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.

有的東西聽起來是很棒的，比如

We're all identical to each other. Isn't it wonderful?"

“我們的基因有99.9%都是一樣的。

And look around you and know

所有人都一樣。”聽起來不錯吧？

that what we really care about is

可看看周圍你就會明白，

that little bit of difference.

我們真正在意的

We look the same to a visitor from another planet, maybe,

其實是那微乎其微的不同之處。

but not to each other

對外星人來說，我們看起來可能一模一樣，

because we compete with each other all time.

但在這裡，人與人是不同的，

And we're going to have to come to grips with the fact

因為我們無時無刻不在互相競爭，

that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,

我們還會了解到

and between subpopulations of humans as well.

個體之間存在差異，

To deny that that's the case is not a very good start on that.

亞群之間亦存在差異。

A generation or so away

否認差異並不是個良好的開端。

there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.

大概到我們的下一代，

That's when we're going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.

還會發生影響更加深刻的事。

Now I don't mean extra gills or something --

到時我們將會開始依照已有的知識來修飾人類的基因。

something we care about, like aging.

不是說會多長幾個器官之類的，

What if we could unravel aging and understand it --

而是要用在我們關心的問題上，比如衰老。

begin to retard the process or even reverse it?

倘若我們可以揭開衰老的奧秘──

It would change absolutely everything.

延緩衰老甚至倒轉衰老的過程，會發生什麼呢？

And it's obvious to anyone,

所有的一切都會改變，

that if we can do this, we absolutely will do this,

對任何一個人而言，

whatever the consequences are.

只要能做到，我們一定會這麼做，

The second is modifying our emotions.

結果怎樣不重要。

I mean Ritalin, Viagra,

第二是修飾情感。

things of that sort, Prozac.

比如利他靈、威而剛，

You know, this is just clumsy little baby steps.

這一類的藥物，還有像百憂解。

What if you could take a little

這只是我們一開始笨拙的步伐。

concoction of pharmaceuticals

假如你

that would make you feel really contented,

服用一點藥物，

just happy to be you.

就可以感到滿足，

Are you going to be able to resist that if it doesn't have any overt side effects?

感到幸福，

Probably not.

而且這種藥沒有明顯的副作用，你會反對嗎？

And if you don't, who are you going to be?

大概不會吧。

Why do you do what you do?

如果答案是否定的，你將會發生怎樣的改變呢？

We're sort of circumventing evolutionary programs that guide our behavior.

你為什麼這樣做呢？

It's going to be very challenging to deal with.

我們似乎在逃避一些事情，逃避具有改革和指導意義的項目。

The third area is reproduction.

相當棘手的問題。

The idea that we're going to chose our children's genes,

第三個是繁殖領域。

as we begin to understand what genes say about who we are.

隨著我們逐漸認清基因怎樣反映出人的特徵，

That's the focus of my book "Redesigning Humans,"

我們將能選擇孩子的基因。

where I talk about the kinds of choices we'll make,

這是我在《重新設計人類》這本書裡關注的重點，

and the challenges it's going to present to society.

書裡還談到我們會做怎樣的選擇，

There are three obvious ways of doing this.

以及它將給社會帶來什麼樣的挑戰。

The first is cloning.

有三個方法。

It didn't happen.

第一個是克隆。

It's a total media circus.

其實克隆還沒成功，

It will happen in five to 10 years.

純粹是媒體炒作。

And when it does it's not going to be that big a deal.

五到十年內可以成功，

The birth of a delayed identical twin

但即便成功了也沒什麼了不起。

is not going to shake western civilization.

兩個不同時間出生的完全相同的雙胞胎，

But there are more important things that are already occurring:

不會對西方文明產生太大影響。

embryo screening.

反而一些更重要的事情已經發生了：

You take a six to eight cell embryo,

胚胎篩選。

you tease out one of the cells, you run a genetic test on that cell,

取一個含六到八個細胞的胚胎，

and depending on the results of that test

提取一個細胞進行遺傳測試，

you either implant that embryo or you discard it.

根據測試結果

It's already done to avoid rare diseases today.

決定取捨。

And pretty soon it's going to be possible

目前已用於預防罕見疾病。

to avoid virtually all genetic diseases in that way.

很快，這種方法可能可以

As that becomes possible

預防所有的遺傳疾病。

this is going to move from something that is used by those who

如果實現這項技術，

have infertility problems and are already doing in vitro fertilization,

受益人群不只是

to the wealthy who want to protect their children,

那些有生育疾病且已進行體外受精的人群，

to just about everybody else.

想保護孩子的富人

And in that process that's going to morph

以及所有人都能受惠於這種技術。

from being just for diseases,

它還會帶來一項改變，

to being for lesser vulnerabilities,

不只預防疾病，

like risk of manic depression or something,

還能增強人的抵抗疾病的能力，

to picking personalities,

比如降低得狂躁抑鬱症的風險，

temperaments, traits, these sorts of things.

到挑選性格、

Of course there is going to be genetic engineering.

脾氣、特質這類事情，

Directly going in -- it's a little bit further away, but not that far away --

當然，其中還要涉及基因工程。

going in and altering the genes in the first cell in an embryo.

基因工程直接參與其中——這有點遙遠，但也不是那麼遙遠——

The way I suspect it will happen

利用基因工程改變胚胎中第一個細胞內的基因。

is using artificial chromosomes

我覺得這項技術想要成功，

and extra chromosomes, so we go from 46

要用到人造染色體

to 47 or 48.

以及額外的染色體，所以我們的染色體數量將從46

And one that is not heritable

上升到47或48。

because who would want to pass on to their children

還會有一條不可遺傳的染色體。

the archaic enhancement modules

畢竟，誰想把25年前

that they got 25 years earlier from their parents?

從父母那裡遺傳來的已經用不上的基因改善模塊

It's a joke; of course they wouldn't want to do that.

傳給自己的小孩？

They'll want the new release.

開個玩笑，人們肯定不想這樣。

Those kinds of loose analogies with

他們想要的是新的模塊，

(Laughter)

這有點類似於

computers, and with programming,