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  • The future of life, where the unraveling of our biology --

    譯者: Shuang Carol Jin 審譯者: chufung dou

  • and bring up the lights a little bit. I don't have any slides.

    生命的未來,以及生物的奧秘一次次揭開──

  • I'm just going to talk --

    把燈開亮一點,我不用投影片

  • about where that's likely to carry us.

    只是要和大家談談─

  • And you know, I saw all the visions

    這些將把我們帶向何方。

  • of the first couple of sessions.

    我聽了最開始兩部分的演講

  • It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk

    聽了裡面的那些觀點。

  • about the future.

    讓我有一點罪惡感,因為我今天的這場演講

  • It felt wrong to do that in some way.

    對未來持以樂觀的態度。

  • And yet, I don't really think it is

    這樣做感覺不太對。

  • because when it comes down to it,

    但是我確實認為未來充滿希望,

  • it's this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain --

    因為煙消雲散的那天

  • what people in the future are going to remember about this period.

    只有大方向被記得

  • I want to talk to you a little bit about

    這才是未來會記住這個時代的地方

  • why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins,

    我想要說的是,

  • who would like to ban these sorts of technologies,

    為什麼Jeremy Rivkins提出的

  • or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,

    禁止這些技術的要求

  • are actually -- to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.

    或是Bill Joys放棄這些技術的想法,

  • I'm focusing on biology,

    對我們來說才是一場悲劇。

  • the biological sciences.

    我會把重點放在生物學

  • The reason I'm doing that is because those are going to be

    和生物科學上面。

  • the areas that are the most significant to us.

    因為這兩個領域

  • The reason for that is really very simple.

    對我們來說將最為關鍵。

  • It's because we're flesh and blood.

    其中原因非常簡單,

  • We're biological creatures.

    因為我們都是血肉之軀

  • And what we can do with our biology

    我們都是生物。

  • is going to shape our future

    我們在生物學上的造化

  • and that of our children and that of their children --

    將決定我們自己

  • whether we gain control over aging,

    以及子孫後代的未來──

  • whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer's,

    比如能否控制衰老,

  • and heart disease, and cancer.

    能否防治老人癡呆症

  • I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.

    心臟病,以及癌症。

  • And I'm actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.

    我覺得莎翁有段話說得不錯。

  • (Laughter)

    照搬一下他老人家的一字一句。

  • He said, "And so from hour to hour

    (笑聲)

  • we ripe and ripe.

    他說,“因此時間一點點流逝,

  • And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.

    我們一點點成熟。

  • And thereby hangs a tale."

    時間繼續一點點流逝,我們一點點老去。

  • Life is short, you know.

    故事這樣發生了。”

  • And we need to think about planning a little bit.

    人生苦短。

  • We're all going to eventually, even in the developed world,

    所以我們要好好規劃。

  • going to have to lose everything that we love.

    即便科學非常發達,最終我們仍將

  • When you're beginning to rot a little bit,

    失去摯愛的一切。

  • all of the videos crammed into your head,

    當我們開始老去的時候,

  • all of the extensions that extend your various powers,

    所有湧入你腦海的一幕幕,

  • are going to being to seem a little secondary.

    所有外在的能力、權力等等,

  • And you know, I'm getting a little bit gray -- so is Ray Kurzweil,

    都變得次要起來。

  • so is Eric Drexler.

    你們可以看到,我變得有點悲觀了,Ray Kurzweil也是,

  • This is where it's really central to our lives.

    還有Eric Drexler。

  • Now I know there's been a whole lot of hype

    這才是我們生命的核心。

  • about our power to control biology.

    現在我瞭解到,我們對生物學的控制能力

  • You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.

    並不像傳言所說的那樣強大。

  • It wasn't two years ago

    只要看下人類基因工程你就知道了。

  • that everybody was talking about --

    只不過兩年前,

  • we've found the Holy Grail of biology.

    人們就在說

  • We're deciphering the code of codes.

    我們已經掌握了生物學的關鍵,

  • We're reading the book of life.

    我們已經破譯了基因密碼,

  • It's a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon,

    我們正在閱讀生命之書。

  • and everybody was about to race out toward the stars.

    這有點像1969年阿姆斯壯登錄月球時的情境,

  • And we've all seen "2001: A Space Odyssey."

    每個人都以為我們要奔向外星球了。

  • You know it's 2003, and there is no HAL.

    我們都看過電影《2001太空漫游》

  • And there is no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.

    可是現在都2003了,電影裡的超智能電腦仍然不見蹤影。

  • And we're still picking up pieces of the Challenger.

    我們還不能在月球上漫步,更別說木星的衛星了。

  • So it's not surprising that some people would wonder

    我們仍然在尋找挑戰者號的殘骸。

  • whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now,

    所以不奇怪,有的人會懷疑

  • we'll look back at this instant in time,

    是不是等到三四十年以後,

  • and all of the sort of talk about

    我們回顧當年的時候

  • the Human Genome Project,

    如今這些各種各樣的演講,

  • and what all this is going to mean to us --

    有的關於人類基因工程,

  • well, it will really mean precious little.

    有的關於人類基因工程對我們的意義,

  • And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.

    都會顯得微不足道。

  • Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology,

    我想說的是這絕對不可能。

  • and modifying and altering and adjusting these things,

    因為當我們談及遺傳學與生物學,

  • we're talking about changing ourselves.

    以及在其中進行修飾、改變、調整的時候,

  • And this is very critical stuff.

    我們談的其實是改變自己。

  • If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives,

    這是非常重要的一點。

  • you just have to go to any major city.

    如果你還不能確定科技如何影響我們的生活,

  • This is not the stomping ground

    你只要隨便去哪座大城市看一看。

  • of our Pleistocene ancestors.

    這已完全不同於我們數萬年前的祖先

  • What's happening is we're taking this technology --

    生活的那片土地了。

  • it's becoming more precise, more potent --

    如今,人類利用科技,

  • and we're turning it back upon ourselves.

    科技比原先更加精確,也更有威力,

  • Before it's all done

    我們要把它用在自己身上。

  • we are going to alter ourselves

    下一步,

  • every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.

    我們要一點一點地改變自己,

  • It's going to happen a lot sooner

    就像改變周遭世界一樣。

  • than people imagine.

    這很快就會發生,

  • On the way there it's going to

    遠比人們想象的要快。

  • completely revolutionize medicine and health care; that's obvious.

    改變人類自己的過程中,

  • It's going to change the way we have children.

    醫療保健會徹底改革。這是顯而易見的。

  • It's going to change the way we manage

    生育子女的方式會改變。

  • and alter our emotions.

    我們控制和改變自己情緒

  • It's going to probably change the human lifespan.

    的方式也會改變。

  • It will really make us question

    還有人類壽命,也許也會改變。

  • what it is to be a human being.

    這讓我們不禁要問

  • The larger context of this is that are

    人類到底是什麼。

  • two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.

    大環境就是

  • The first of them is the obvious one,

    兩場前所未有的革命正在進行。

  • the silicon revolution,

    第一場革命顯而易見,

  • which you all are very, very familiar with.

    是矽土半導體的電子革命

  • It's changing our lives in so many ways,

    大家都非常之熟悉。

  • and it will continue to do that.

    它從很多方面改變著我們的生活,

  • What the essence of that is, is that we're taking

    而且還會繼續改變我們。

  • the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet,

    說到底就是,我們利用

  • and we're breathing a level of complexity into it

    腳邊的砂石和不活躍的矽元素,

  • that rivals that of life itself,

    然後賦予它們一定的復雜性,

  • and may even surpass it.

    這和生命本身的復雜性相當,

  • As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution,

    甚至更加復雜。

  • is the revolution in biology.

    這場革命的衍生物,如同它的下一代,

  • The genomics revolution,

    就是生物學革命。

  • proteomics, metabolomics, all of these "omics"

    基因革命、

  • that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.

    蛋白質體、代謝體,所有這些生物科學名詞

  • What we're doing is we are

    在撥款補助和商業計劃中都顯得非常漂亮。

  • seizing control of our evolutionary future.

    我們現在

  • I mean we're essentially using technology

    想要控制住革命性的未來。

  • to just jam evolution into fast-forward.

    我的意思是,實際上我們是用科技

  • It's not at all clear where it's going to take us.

    向前推動革命。

  • But in five to ten years we're going to start see

    我們到底會走向何方,仍然是個未知數。

  • some very profound changes.

    但是五到十年之內,我們會逐漸看到

  • The most immediate changes that we'll see

    一些深遠的改變。

  • are things like in medicine.

    其中最先改變的

  • There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine

    是諸如醫療等方面。

  • as we start to be able to identify

    我們的重心會轉向預防,

  • all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.

    因為我們開始認識到

  • But who is going to pay for all this?

    個體發病的潛在原因。

  • And how are we going to understand all this complex information?

    但是誰來為這一切買單呢?

  • That is going to be the IT challenge

    我們怎樣才能理解這些復雜的信息呢?

  • of the next generation, is communicating all this information.

    這將是下一代的IT挑戰,

  • There's pharmacogenomics, the combination of pharmacology

    也就是傳播信息。

  • and genetics:

    藥物學和遺傳學的結合──

  • tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions

    藥物遺傳學

  • that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.

    根據人的個體特徵製造藥物,

  • That's going to have amazing impacts.

    剛剛胡安提到了這點。

  • And it's going to be used for diet as well,

    藥物遺傳學會產生奇妙的改變。

  • and nutritional supplements and such.

    還會被用於飲食,

  • But it's going to have a big impact because

    營養補充劑等等。

  • we're going to have niche drugs.

    但還有一個很大的影響,

  • And we aren't going to be able to support

    因為以後不同的人用不同的藥,

  • the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.

    與現在大規模制藥不可同日而語,

  • The approval process is going to fall apart, actually.

    成本過高,我們難以支付。

  • It's too slow.

    藥品批審過程將會改變

  • It's too risk-averse.

    現在太慢了。

  • And it is really not suited for the future

    太保守了,

  • that we're moving into.

    與我們即將進入的未來

  • Another thing is that we're just going to have to deal with this knowledge.

    實在不相符。

  • It's really wonderful when we hear,

    另一點就是我們還要處理這麼一個問題。

  • "Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.

    有的東西聽起來是很棒的,比如

  • We're all identical to each other. Isn't it wonderful?"

    “我們的基因有99.9%都是一樣的。

  • And look around you and know

    所有人都一樣。”聽起來不錯吧?

  • that what we really care about is

    可看看周圍你就會明白,

  • that little bit of difference.

    我們真正在意的

  • We look the same to a visitor from another planet, maybe,

    其實是那微乎其微的不同之處。

  • but not to each other

    對外星人來說,我們看起來可能一模一樣,

  • because we compete with each other all time.

    但在這裡,人與人是不同的,

  • And we're going to have to come to grips with the fact

    因為我們無時無刻不在互相競爭,

  • that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,

    我們還會了解到

  • and between subpopulations of humans as well.

    個體之間存在差異,

  • To deny that that's the case is not a very good start on that.

    亞群之間亦存在差異。

  • A generation or so away

    否認差異並不是個良好的開端。

  • there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.

    大概到我們的下一代,

  • That's when we're going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.

    還會發生影響更加深刻的事。

  • Now I don't mean extra gills or something --

    到時我們將會開始依照已有的知識來修飾人類的基因。

  • something we care about, like aging.

    不是說會多長幾個器官之類的,

  • What if we could unravel aging and understand it --

    而是要用在我們關心的問題上,比如衰老。

  • begin to retard the process or even reverse it?

    倘若我們可以揭開衰老的奧秘──

  • It would change absolutely everything.

    延緩衰老甚至倒轉衰老的過程,會發生什麼呢?