There was little to warn of the danger ahead.

我想從一個戰爭的場景來開始談。

The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,

這裡看不出任何徵兆來得知前方隱藏的危險。

an Improvised Explosive Device,

事實上伊拉克反抗軍已經在路旁

along the side of the road with great care.

很小心的裝置了 IED，

By 2006, there were more than 2,500

那是一種簡易爆炸裝置。

of these attacks every single month,

在 2006 這一年中，

and they were the leading cause of

每個月有超過 2500 件這類攻擊事件，

casualties among American soldiers

而這些正是造成

and Iraqi civilians.

美國士兵以及伊拉克居民

The team that was hunting for this IED

死傷的主要原因。

is called an EOD team—

搜尋這種 IED 的小組

Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and

被稱為 EOD 小組 --

they're the pointy end of the spear in the

爆破性武器處理( Explosive Ordnance Disposal )

American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.

他們是美軍部隊中

Each EOD team goes out on about

專門對付路旁炸彈的尖兵。

600 of these bomb calls every year,

每個 EOD 小組每年會進行

defusing about two bombs a day.

大約 600 次這類炸彈任務，

Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they

每天大概要拆兩個炸彈。

are to the war effort, is that

也許對他們來說，

the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty

伊拉克反抗軍用5萬美金

on the head of a single EOD soldier.

懸賞一個EOD士兵的人頭這件事，

Unfortunately, this particular call

可以看出他們有多珍貴。

would not end well.

很不幸的，

By the time the soldier advanced close

這種特殊任務不一定能安全完成。

enough to see the telltale wires

某次一位資深士兵為了看訊號線

of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.

過度接近一枚炸彈，

Now, depending how close you are

結果它炸出了一道火牆。

and how much explosive has been packed

依據你靠得多近，

into that bomb, it can cause death

以及炸彈中裝置了多少火藥，

or injury. You have to be as far as

它會導致人員死亡或受傷。

50 yards away to escape that.

你必須要保持距離

The blast is so strong it can even break

在 50 碼以上才能不受波及。

your limbs, even if you're not hit.

沖擊波強大到足以震斷你的四肢，

That soldier had been on top of the bomb.

即使你沒有被炸彈擊中。

And so when the rest of the team advanced

這位士兵正身處於炸彈上方。

they found little left. And that night the unit's

而這個資深隊伍的其他人員

commander did a sad duty, and he wrote

只在稍微左邊一點的位置。而在當晚，

a condolence letter back to the United

這個隊伍的指揮官做了一件令人難過的任務，

States, and he talked about how hard the

他寫了一封哀悼的信回美國，

loss had been on his unit, about the fact

他描述關於失去他的隊伍他有多傷心，

that they had lost their bravest soldier,

而且事實上，

a soldier who had saved their lives

他們失去了最勇敢的士兵，

many a time.

一位曾經多次

And he apologized

拯救他們性命的士兵。

for not being able to bring them home.

並且，他感到抱歉

But then he talked up the silver lining

因為他無法將這個人帶回家。

that he took away from the loss.

但是從這個事件中，

"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,

他提到了一絲希望。

you don't have to write a letter

如他所寫的，

to its mother."

「至少當一個機器人死亡時，

That scene sounds like science fiction,

你不用寫信給他的母親。」

but is battlefield reality already.

這聽起來像是科幻電影的場景，

The soldier in that case

但這是戰場上真實的事情。

was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.

在這個例子中的士兵，

The chief's letter went, not to some

是一個重達 42 磅，名為 PackBot 的機器人。

farmhouse in Iowa like you see

這位長官的信，

in the old war movies, but went to

不像你在一些老舊戰爭電影所見

the iRobot Company, which is

寄給愛荷華州的某個家園，

named after the Asimov novel

而是寄給這家 iRobot 公司，

and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,

名字取自 Asimov 小說

and... um... (Laughter)...

以及不怎麼樣的 Will Smith 電影，

if you remember that

還有 ... ( 笑聲 ) ...

in that fictional world, robots started out

如果你還記得

carrying out mundane chores, and then

在那個科幻世界中，機器人一開始

they started taking on life-and-death decisions.

只會幫我們做家事，接著，

That's a reality we face today.

它們可以決定我們的生死。

What we're going to do is actually just

這就是今日我們面對的真實狀況。

flash a series of photos behind me that

接下來，我將會用我身後的投影片

show you the reality of robots used in war

來播放一些照片給大家看，

right now or already at the prototype stage.

讓大家看看目前被用於戰場

It's just to give you a taste.

以及那些已經有原型機(prototype)的機器人。

Another way of putting it is you're not

這只是稍微做個介紹。

going to see anything that's powered

另外要提一下，

by Vulcan technology, or teenage

你們現在看見的這些，

wizard hormones or anything like that.

並不是瓦肯人的外星技術，

This is all real. So why don't we

或是少年巫師賀爾蒙作祟變出來的東西。

go ahead and start those pictures.

這一切都是真實的。

Something big is going on in war today,

我們開始看看這些照片吧

and maybe even the history of humanity

人性在現今的戰爭中

itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with

出現有史以來的重大改變。

a handful of drones in the air.

當初美軍進入伊拉克時，

We now have 5,300.

只有少數的無人飛機，

We went in with zero unmanned ground

現在已經增加到 5300 架。

systems. We now have 12,000.

當時我們沒有無人的地面系統，

And the tech term "killer application"

現在已經有 12000 架了。

takes on new meaning in this space.

而 "殺手級應用" 這個技術名詞

And we need to remember that we're

在這兒將會有新的定義。

talking about the Model T Fords,

請記住我們現在所談的是

the Wright Flyers, compared

拿福特的Model T4 車,

to what's coming soon.

與萊特兄弟的飛機

That's where we're at right now.

和即將推出的最新款比較的那種巨大差異。

One of the people that I recently met with

這就是我們現在即將看見的。

was an Air Force three-star general, and he

我最近遇到一位

said basically, where we're headed very

空軍三星上將，他說，

soon is tens of thousands of robots

基本上我們即將面對的是，

operating in our conflicts, and these

將會有成千上萬的機器人

numbers matter, because we're not just

在戰場上作戰，

talking about tens of thousands of today's

而這個數字之所以重要，是因為我們不是談論

robots, but tens of thousands of these

成千上萬的現有機器人，

prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because

而是成千上萬的原型機，

of course, one of the things that's operating

以及未來機器人，因為，

in technology is Moore's Law,

在現今科技裡面

that you can pack in more and more

有個叫做摩爾定律的東西，

computing power into those robots, and so

就是說你將可以替機器人

flash forward around 25 years,

裝入更多強力的運算能力，

if Moore's Law holds true,

所以往後推算 25 年的話，

those robots will be close to a billion times

如果摩爾定律依然正確的話，

more powerful in their computing than today.

這些機器人在運算能力上

And so what that means is the kind of

將會比今日強上十幾億倍。

things that we used to only talk about at

這樣的話，

science fiction conventions like Comic-Con

我們本來在一些漫畫同人展中

have to be talked about in the halls

討論的一些科幻小說內容，

of power and places like the Pentagon.

將會改在掌權者的會議室中談論，

A robots revolution is upon us.

像是五角大廈這種地方。

Now, I need to be clear here.

機器人的巨大轉變正在發生。

I'm not talking about a revolution where you

在這兒我必須先說清楚。

have to worry about the Governor of

我並不是在說

California showing up at your door,

某天加州州長會以魔鬼終結者型態

a la the Terminator. (Laughter)

出現在你家門前

When historians look at this period, they're

那種令你擔心的事。(笑聲)

going to conclude that we're in a different

以後的歷史學家看我們這段時期時，

type of revolution: a revolution in war,

他們會寫說我們正處於一種不同的轉變期，

like the invention of the atomic bomb.

一種戰爭型態的轉變，

But it may be even bigger than that,

就像是原子彈的發明一般。

because our unmanned systems don't just

但可能還會更加重大，

affect the "how" of war-fighting,

因為我們擁有的無人系統

they affect the "who" of fighting

並不只是影響"如何"去作戰，

at its most fundamental level.

它們將影響在機器人最重要的原則，

That is, every previous revolution in war, be

它是"和誰"在作戰。

it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,

就是說，在以往的戰爭型態改變中，

was about a system that either shot faster,

不論是機關槍，或是原子彈，

went further, had a bigger boom.

都只是關於如何作到射得更快，

That's certainly the case with robotics, but

前進得更遠，或是爆炸威力更大。

they also change the experience of the warrior

這些當然也和機器人有關係，

and even the very identity of the warrior.

但這將會改變士兵們的經歷，

Another way of putting this is that

甚至是士兵們的身份。

mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly

另外一部分就是，

on the fighting of war is breaking down

人類在近5000年來

in our very lifetime. I've spent

在戰場上作戰的專利

the last several years going around

將會在我們這個世代中結束。

meeting with all the players in this field,

過去幾年來，

from the robot scientists to the science

我到各地去拜訪這個領域的人們，

fiction authors who inspired them to the

包括了製作機器人的科學家，

19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting

提供靈感的那些科幻小說作者，

from Nevada, to the four-star generals

那些身在內華達州

who command them, to even the Iraqi

負責操縱無人飛機的19歲駕駛們，

insurgents who they are targeting and what

負責指揮這些人的四星上將，

they think about our systems, and

甚至是被攻擊的伊拉克反抗軍，

what I found interesting is not just

詢問他們對這套系統的看法，

their stories, but how their experiences

令我感興趣的並不只是

point to these ripple effects that are going

他們自身的故事，

outwards in our society, in our law

而是他們所經歷的這些

and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like

將如何影響我們的社會，我們的法律

to do with my remaining time is basically

以及道德觀之類的。

flesh out a couple of these.

我會利用剩餘的時間，

So the first is that the future of war,

將這些作一個簡單的說明。

even a robotics one, is not going to be

首先，戰爭的未來型態，

purely an American one.

甚至是利用機器人的戰爭，

The U.S. is currently ahead in military

將不再只是美國的問題。

robotics right now, but we know that in

確實現在美國在軍事機器人方面

technology there's no such thing as

佔有領先的地位，但是我們知道

a permanent first move or advantage.

科技這種東西不會有

In a quick show of hands, how many

永遠保持領先這種事。

people in this room still use

這樣說吧，請問

Wang Computers? (Laughter)

這裡有多少人還在使用

It's the same thing in war. The British and

王安電腦? (笑聲)

the French invented the tank.

戰爭也是一樣。英國以及

The Germans figured out how

法國發明了坦克。

to use it right, and so what we have to

而德國人發現該如何

think about for the U.S. is that we are

正確的使用它，所以

ahead right now, but you have

我們現在要思考的是，

43 other countries out there

雖然美國現在領先，

working on military robotics, and they

但世界上還有其他43個國家

include all the interesting countries like

正在努力開發軍事機器人，

Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.

包括了那些值得注意的國家

And this raises a bigger worry for me.

例如俄羅斯、中國、巴基斯坦和伊朗。

How do we move forward in this revolution

這讓我更加擔憂。

given the state of our manufacturing

我們該如何利用

and the state of our science and

現有的製造技術、現有的學校科學

mathematics training in our schools?

與數學教育，

Or another way of thinking about this is,

在這個戰爭型態轉變中繼續向前?

what does it mean to go to war increasingly

換個想法的話就是，

with soldiers whose hardware is made

越來越多士兵在戰場上使用中國製的硬體設備，

in China and software is written in India?

以及印度所寫的電腦軟體，

But just as software has gone open-source,

這將會是什麼情況呢？

so has warfare.

但正如同軟體逐漸趨向開放式原始碼(open source)，

Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,

戰爭也是如此。

you don't need a massive manufacturing

不同於飛機或是原子彈，

system to build robotics. A lot of it is

你不需要有大型生產系統來製造機器人。

off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.

大部分都有現成品，

One of those things you just saw flashed

有些甚至可以讓你DIY的。

before you was a raven drone, the handheld

像是各位在剛才的影片中

tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,

看見的烏鴉號無人飛機，

you can build one yourself, equivalent to

手持拋擲的那台，只要大約1千美金，

what the soldiers use in Iraq.

你就可以自己做一台，

That raises another wrinkle when it comes

和那些在伊拉克的士兵們所用的完全一樣。

to war and conflict. Good guys might play

當關係到戰爭和衝突時，

around and work on these as hobby kits,

這東西就會有不同的用法，

but so might bad guys.

好人可能只是拿來玩玩，把這些當作興趣而已，

This cross between robotics and things like

但壞人也會拿來玩。

terrorism is going to be fascinating

這個介於機器人技術與恐怖主義行為的東西，

and even disturbing,

將會變得相當迷人，

and we've already seen it start.

但又相當令人困擾，

During the war between Israel, a state,

我們已經看見它發生了。

and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,

在以色列這個國家，

the non-state actor flew

與真主黨這個非國家組織的戰爭中，

four different drones against Israel.

真主黨操縱了

There's already a jihadi website

四架無人飛機來對抗以色列。

that you can go on and remotely

你甚至可以坐在家裡，

detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting

使用電腦連到一個Jehadi網站，

at your home computer.

遙控引爆在伊拉克的

And so I think what we're going to see is

簡易爆炸裝置。

two trends take place with this.

因此，我想這個將會導致

First is, you're going to reinforce the power

兩種趨勢的發生。

of individuals against governments,

第一個是，個人對抗政府的力量

but then the second is that

將會變得更加強大，

we are going to see an expansion

但第二個則是，

in the realm of terrorism.

我們將會看見

The future of it may be a cross between

恐怖份子的勢力範圍逐漸擴大。

al Qaeda 2.0 and the

未來可能將是

next generation of the Unabomber.

蓋達組織2.0與

And another way of thinking about this

次世代郵包炸彈客聯手的情況。

is the fact that, remember, you don't have

另外一方面的問題是，

to convince a robot that they're gonna

請記住，你並不需要

receive 72 virgins after they die

去說服機器人相信

to convince them to blow themselves up.

在犧牲後會獲得72個處女，

But the ripple effects of this are going to go

以說服它們執行自殺炸彈任務。

out into our politics. One of the people that

但這件事將會在政治上

I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of

產生一些影響。我曾經遇到

Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it

雷根時代的前國防部助理秘書長。

this way: "I like these systems because

他曾經這樣說過，

they save American lives, but I worry about

"我喜歡這些系統，

more marketization of wars,

因為它可以拯救許多美國人的性命，

more shock-and-awe talk,

但是我擔心

to defray discussion of the costs.

這將會使得戰爭變得更加自由市場化，

People are more likely to support the use

會出現更多談論代價的驚人言論。

of force if they view it as costless."

當人們認為某種方式是幾乎不需付出代價時，

Robots for me take certain trends

人們會比較傾向去使用它。"

that are already in play in our body politic,

對我來說，機器人化是必然的趨勢，

and maybe take them to

甚至已經在政治體系中出現，

their logical ending point.

也許已經讓它們

We don't have a draft. We don't

變得相當合理化。

have declarations of war anymore.

對於這個我們並沒有任何草案。

We don't buy war bonds anymore.

我們不再有任何戰爭宣言。

And now we have the fact that we're

我們不再買任何戰爭公債。

converting more and more of our American

但事實上，

soldiers that we would send into harm's

我們正在持續將那些

way into machines, and so we may take

原本要送往危險區域的美國士兵們

those already lowering bars to war

盡量以機器人替代，這樣我們就可以

and drop them to the ground.

讓那些反對戰爭的民調數字

But the future of war is also going to be