We stood on the railroad tracks

我們那時是在可倫坡某個叫做委拉哇塔的住宅區裡，

that ran between my friend's house and the beach.

我們站在鐵軌上，

The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,

那條鐵軌就在我朋友的家和海邊之間，

but at that point the water had receded

鐵軌的高度一般是在海平面上2.5公尺高，

to a level three or four feet below normal.

但那時海水正值退潮，

I'd never seen the reef here before.

所以海平面也降到比平常還低個一公尺左右。

There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.

以前我從未在那裡看過礁石，

Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.

有些小魚被困在海水退去後的礁石水窪裡，

They were trying to catch fish.

孩子們便都跳進水裡，帶著袋子跑到水窪旁，

No one realized that this was a very bad idea.

想要抓起那些小魚。

The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.

沒人知道這樣做並不妥當，

I turned around to check on my friend's house.

大家都只是站在鐵軌上看著他們抓魚，

Then someone on the tracks screamed.

我轉過身去看我朋友的家，

Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.

接著就聽到有人在鐵軌上大叫，

The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.

我還來不及回頭看，站在鐵軌上的人全都尖叫起來，而且開始往回跑，

The children managed to run back onto the tracks.

海水開始回漲上來，淹沒了礁石。

No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.

孩子們盡力跑回鐵軌上，

In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks

沒人落在後頭。但海水還是持續上漲，

and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.

大約二分鐘之後，海水幾乎就要上升到和鐵軌一樣高了，

It continued to rise.

快要淹沒鐵軌了！這次我們往回跑了100公尺，

I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.

我一直往高的地方爬，

He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,

我看到一個老人站在自己的門前，膝蓋都泡在水裡了，但他不願逃走，

and that he would rather die there than run.

他說他這輩子都在這個海邊渡過，

A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house

他寧願死也不願逃走。

to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.

有個男孩掙脫了媽媽的手，跑回屋裡，

An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.

去救他的狗，那隻狗完全嚇呆了。

The slum built on the railroad reservation

有個哭泣的老婦人，被她的兒子從房子裡揹了出來。

between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.

那個在鐵路保留區內的貧民窟，

Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,

原來是在鐵軌與海灘之間，現在全被沖走了。

and no one was there when the water rose.

因為這裡是高危險區域，警察早就警告過這裡的居民，

But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.

所以當海嘯來的時候，這裡已經沒人了。

For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --

但他們還是來不及帶走自己的物品。

all of this was from the houses in the slum.

過了幾個鐘頭之後，海水退去，留下了遍地斷裂的木頭，

When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.

全都是貧民窟的殘垣碎瓦。

This may seem hard to believe --

海水退去之後，就像從沒發生過海嘯一樣。

unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --

或許你很難相信海嘯曾在此肆虐，

but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.

除非你看過很多新聞報導，

When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes

但在海嘯之後，大部分的村民都還是驚惶失措。

and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --

看著曾經風平浪靜的海洋把人們、房屋、

and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,

長尾船等全都無情地吞噬，沒有任何警訊，

I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.

沒人知道是否還有下一波海嘯要來，

One of the scariest things about the tsunami

我也不確定大家是否已經恢復平靜。

that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.

海嘯最可怕的是

This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor

我們完全無法取得資訊，

after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,

這或許是小事一椿，但最可怕的是聽到不同的謠言，

will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...

有人說又有另一波海嘯要來了，比上一個還要大，

You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,

會在下午一點來襲，或是今天晚上，或是...

to catch a boat to the hospital.

你無法判斷是不是可以回到海邊

We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.

搭船去醫院。

We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,

我們認為菲菲醫院已經毁了，

but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,

我們覺得去普吉醫院比較好，

then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.

但如果到時候無法靠岸，

We don't think another wave is coming right away.

就要轉去喀拉比醫院，那裡比較安全。

At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,

我們覺得下一波海嘯不會那麼快就來，

I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,

而在菲菲山丘渡假村裡，

but I strained to listen for information.

我被擠到離電視最遠的角落，

They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,

但我還是儘量聽取資訊。

which triggered the massive tsunami.

電視上說蘇門答臘發生了8.5級的強震，

Having this news was comforting in some small way

引發了這起大規模的海嘯。

to understand what had just happened to us.

聽到這則新聞讓我們稍微放下心了，

However, the report focused on what had already occurred

至少我們知道發生了什麼事。

and offered no information on what to expect now.

但是，電視新聞一直在報導發生過的災情，

In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,

卻沒有告訴我們接下來會發生什麼事。

and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours

大家都只是道聽塗說，胡亂傳播謠言，

knew anything with any certainty.

在接下來的36個小時裡，和我說過話的人裡面，

Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs

沒人能確定會發生什麼事。

that essentially sprang up after it occurred.

這二篇是在南亞海嘯發生後，

I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami

出現在網路部落格上的文章。

that also were shown on blogs.

我要播放二支有關海嘯的影片，

I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.

這二支也是部落格裡的影片。

One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.

我先警告各位，影片內容很震撼，

(Screaming)

第一支是在泰國拍攝，第二支則是在普吉島拍攝。

Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.

(尖叫聲)

Voice 2: It's coming again?

甲：要來了，要來了！

Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.

乙：又要來了嗎？

Voice 2: Come get inside here.

甲：對，又要來了！

Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?

乙：....

Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!

甲：又來了！是另一波海嘯！

[Unclear]

又來了！

(Screaming)

.....

They called me out here.

(尖叫聲)

James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.

他們叫我離開這裡...

In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,

詹姆士：呼...這二支影片都放在這個網站：Waveofdestruction.org

because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,

在部落格的世界裡，海嘯之前和海嘯之後有很清楚的分野，

although initially -- that is, in that first day --

因為在海嘯發生之後，有一件事值得討論，

there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video

雖然一開始，在海嘯發生後的第一天，

and some people complained about this.

現場報導的新聞資訊顯然不足，也缺乏可以播放的影片，

They said, "The blogsters let us down."

所以有些人開始抱怨，

What became very clear was that,

他們認為部落客讓大家失望了。

within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,

後來事情卻有了完全不一樣的發展，

and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened

幾天之內，各種資訊排山倒海而來，

in a way that we never had been able to get before.

我們取得了完整且令人震撼的報導，

And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected

那是我們以前完全無法想像到的境界。

writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with

這些人基本上都是沒有組織、互不相識的作家、

a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense

或是部落格攝影師這一類的，他們共同描繪出

of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.

整個災難的景象，讓我們知道當地發生了什麼事，

And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,

遠比主流媒體的報導還要詳盡。

a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.

因此，或許我們可以把這次的海嘯視為一個轉捩點，

Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --

讓我們的部落格文化得以發展，以臻成熟。

the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,

現在，我想要把話題轉個方向，

that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.

從一般人認為的高尚、

Because when we think about blogs,

激勵人心或令人震撼的話題，轉到較為俗世的話題。

I think for most of us who are concerned about them,

當我們在思考部落格的時候，

we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.

我認為大部分關心部落格的人，

And I want to ask three questions in this talk,

關心的話題應該都是政治或科技這一類的事，

in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.

而我在這裡要問三個問題，

The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,

雖然只剩十分鐘，但我要問問各位有關部落格文化的事。

about what motivates people to do things?

第一個問題是，是什麼驅使人們去做這些事？

The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility

我們又得到什麼樣的啟發？

of accessing a kind of collective intelligence

第二個問題，部落格真能這麼神奇地結合起來，

that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?

達到我們稱之為「群體智慧」的境界，

And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,

而我們一般人以前都無法達到這個境界？

or the dark side of blogs as we know them?

第三個問題，部落格有沒有什麼潛在的問題，

OK, the first question:

或是某些缺點呢？

What do they tell us about why people do things?

好，先看第一個問題：

One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,

他們是否能告訴我們為什麼大家要這麼做？

and, of course, the Internet more generally --

關於部落格文化最令人著迷的現象之一，

and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,

當然，這在網路世界很普遍，

but I think it is an important one to think about --

而且大家也很容易看得出來，

is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content

但我覺得這仍然是值得我們重視的現象，

every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,

就是那些每天孜孜不倦為我們產出大量文章的部落客們，

linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,

其實每個人都花了大量的時間在組合、

are doing so primarily for free.

連結、或評論網路上的各種內容，

They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,

而且他們完全沒有為此而支領薪水。

to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.

他們不求回報，只希望能搏取別人的注意，

And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,

有時候他們也能因為自己所做的事而獲取不錯的名聲。

because the traditional account of economic man would say that,

以傳統經濟學理論來看，這未免太不可思議，

basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.

大部分支持傳統經濟學理論的人都認為，

But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --

每個人做事都是為了獲取回報，而且是財務上的回報。

and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way

但是，我們在網路世界上看到的，

to work together without any money involved at all.

堪稱最神奇的現象，這些人在網路世界上一起合作，

They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.

卻分文不取。

The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"

他們所呈現的，是另一種截然不同的組織活動。

talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,

耶魯法學教授友柴．班克勒在其論文「科斯的企鵝」中，

as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.

談到開放程式碼的架構，就像我們所熟知的Linux，

And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,

已經可以廣泛地被運用到各個層面。

what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,

若我們把這個與海嘯聯想起來，

who are producing enormous amounts of material

我們所看到的就是一支由業餘記者所組成的大軍，

for no reason other than to tell their stories.

他們為我們報導了無數的新聞，

That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.

不求任何回報，只為向世人發聲。

And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities

這是個很棒的想法，也造成了很棒的現象，

for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.

為我們未來的各種組織活動

So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us

創造了各種有趣的可能性。

is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,

我認為部落格文化教我們的第一件事，

and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,

是我們得去實踐任何我們覺得合理的想法，

or, you have to pay for it to be good,

並擴大解釋金錢就等於價值這個狹隘的想法，

but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products

也就是不要再以為每個人做事都是為獲取報酬，

without any money at all changing hands.

我們其實可以集眾人之力創造出很棒的東西，

There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --

但並不一定要有金錢涉入其中。

who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few

當然有些部落客--或許有20個吧--

who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,

可以靠部落格賺錢，

but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it

有些人還打算將經營部落格當成全職工作，

or they love the attention, or whatever it is.

但絕大多數的部落客，都只是純為喜好才寫部落格，

So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this

或是為了獲取大家注意這一類的。

and, I think, is writing about this more,

霍華德．萊因戈德針對這個現象寫了很多文章，

but this notion of voluntary cooperation

我覺得他寫得更為深入，

is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.

這種自願性質的合作，

The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,

真的很震撼人心，我們應該好好想一想。

in terms of accessing collective intelligence?

第二個問題，部落格能幫助我們

You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."

達到「群體智慧」的境界嗎？

And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,

剛才克里斯有提到，我寫過一本書，名為「群眾的智慧」，

under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.

這本書的主題是，

And they can actually often be smarter

在某些對的場合裡，群眾可以展露出了不起的智慧。

than even the smartest person within them.

群眾集合起來的智慧，

The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people

甚至會比群眾裡最聰明的人還要聰明。

to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.

有一個很簡單的例子可以說明，如果你請一群人

If I had a jar of jellybeans

猜猜某個糖果罐裡有多少糖果，他們可以回答得很精確。

and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,

如果我手上拿著那罐糖果，

your average guess would be remarkably good.

我請各位猜猜裡面有多少糖果，

It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent

在座各位猜測的平均數，將會是最接近的答案，

of the number of beans in the jar,

誤差大概就只有那罐糖果

and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.

數量的3%到5%之間，

There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,

而且比在座90%到95%的人猜得都準。

but for the most part the group's guess

在座各位可能有一或二位猜得很準，

would be better than just about all of you.

但是大部分人所猜數量的平均數，

And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work

將會比這裡每個人所猜的數量來得準確。

in many more complicated situations.

更神奇的是，這種現象

For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,

在處理更為複雜的問題時，也同樣會發生。

they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.

舉例來說，如果我們觀察賽馬勝出的機率，

In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack

群眾預測的準確度幾近完美。

is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.

在某方面來說，群眾所擅長的是

You know, if you think about something like Google,

針對未來或然率的預測。

which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web

讓我們來想想Google，

to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --

Google本質上就是在網路上，集合眾人之力，

we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,

找出在網路上最具價值的資訊。

and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing

我們知道Google在這一方面做得很棒，

we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,

但Google之所以有這番成就，是因為它集合了這群

or a remarkable intelligence in it.

看似沒有組織的網民，但其實他們自有規律，

And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.

也自有了不起的群體智慧。

Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"

我認為，這就是部落格文化的精髓之一。

is included in the gift pack --

我們放了一本丹．吉爾摩所寫的

has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,

「群眾媒體」在你們的贈品袋內，

he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.

他在書中談到，雖然身為一個作家，

And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea

他還是不得不承認，他的讀者知道的比他更多。

to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone

這真是個令人震撼的想法，當然也震撼了

who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,

主流媒體，震撼了部落格的寫手們，

and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion

這些人花了許多時間貢獻他們的專長，

that he or she knows better than everyone else.

也花了很多精力經營部落格，

But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility

他們知道的確實比其他人都要多。

of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,

這股部落格文化告訴我們，

and that we know is available to us

要獲取群眾的集體智慧其實是有可能的，

if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.

這些智慧就在那裡，

Each blog post, each blog commentary

我們只需要找到方法來運用就可以了。

may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,

或許並不是每一篇部落格文章或評論

but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,

都是我們想要看的，

more often than not is going to give you a very interesting

但是集合眾人所寫的文章、評論或連結，

and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.

卻可以為我們對外界事務產生一種

So, that's the positive side of it.

有趣又極有價值的獨特視野。

That's the positive side of what is sometimes called

這是部落格文化正面積極的一面，

participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --

這一面向來被人稱之為