which are the two primary factors --

我想論證的是：其實，政治和宗教－－

not the sole, but overwhelmingly, the primary factors --

這兩個因素－－

which are driving towards a war which looks extremely likely --

雖非唯一，卻絕對是最主要的因素，

bordering on the inevitable at this point,

把我們推向一個戰爭的邊緣，

whether one is in favor of that or not --

可以說是到了一觸即發的地步，

that politics and religion are, in fact, themselves

無論你喜歡這個說法與否，

better conceptualized as kinds of technology,

政治和宗教本質上

and subject to kinds of questions that we regularly consider

都可被理解為一種技術，

in the space of conceptual design.

我們可以用設計概念

Here's what I mean. Politics and --

去分析她們。

let's focus on the political system in particular question here,

讓我解釋一下，

which is the system of democracy.

先看政治制度的一種－－

Democracy, as a type of politics, is a technology

民主政治，

for the control and deployment of power.

民主，作為一種政治制度，是一種

You can deploy power in a wide range of ways.

用來控制和行使權力的技術，

The famous ones -- despotism is a good one;

我們可以用多種不同的方法使用權力，

anarchy is a way to not deploy the power in any organized way,

人所共知的有「獨裁統治」，

to do it in a radically diffused fashion;

「無政府狀態」是一種權力運用缺乏組織、

and democracy is a set of technologies,

散漫無章的狀態；

which have the effect of, in principle,

而民主是一套科技，

diffusing the power source to a large number of people

原則上她要達到的效果是：

and then re-concentrating it in a smaller group of people who govern,

把權力來源分散到大眾，

and who themselves are, in principle, authorized to govern

再重新集合到負責管治的少數人，

by virtue of what the broader public has done.

而他們原則上是憑藉大眾所作的選擇，

Now, consider religion -- in this case Islam,

而被授權去管治；

which is the religion that, in some direct sense,

現在來看看宗教，我以回教作論，

can be said to be precipitating what we're about to enter.

她可以說是一手造成

Let me say parenthetically why I think that's the case,

我們將要面臨的處境的宗教。

because I think it's a potentially controversial statement.

這可以是很有爭議性的說法，

I would put it in the following equation: no 9/11, no war.

所以讓我順帶解釋一下，

At the beginning of the Bush administration,

一言敝之：沒有9/11，就沒有戰爭；

when President Bush, now President Bush, was running for president,

在布殊上台之初，

he made it very clear that he was not interested in intervening broadly in the world.

當布殊總統還在競選的時候，

In fact, the trend was for disengagement with the rest of the world.

他明確的表示他沒有興趣在世界舞台上大展拳腳；

That's why we heard about the backing away from the Kyoto protocol, for example.

其實，當時的大勢是要撤離國際上的參與，

After 9/11, the tables were turned.

我們在京都議定書問題上退下來就是一例，

And the president decided, with his advisors,

9/11之後，形勢改變了，

to undertake some kind of an active intervention in the world around us.

總統和他的幕僚決定，

That began with Afghanistan,

在國際上要採取主動，

and when Afghanistan went extremely smoothly and quickly,

行動由阿富汗開始，

a decision was made through the technology of democracy --

當在阿富汗的任務進行得那麼順利快速，

again, notice, not a perfect technology --

在民主的技術機制下－－

but through the technology of democracy

請留意，那不是完美的機制，

that this administration was going to push in the direction of another war --

但是通過民主的技術機制－－

this time, a war in Iraq.

這個政府決定開始推展另一場戰爭，

Now, the reason I begin by saying "no 9/11, no war"

這次戰場在伊拉克，

is that we have to acknowledge that Islam,

我之所以說：沒有9/11，就沒有戰爭，

as interpreted by a very, very small, extremely radical group of people,

是因為我們要認識到，

was a precipitating cause of the 9/11 attacks --

回教在一群很少數、很極端的人演繹之下，

the precipitating cause of the 9/11 attacks --

成為了9/11襲擊的決定性導因，

and as a consequence, at one degree of remove,

她是9/11襲擊的決定性導因，

the precipitating cause of the coming war that we're about to be engaged in.

隨著事情的發展，她亦是

And I would add that bin Laden and his followers

我們將要面臨的戰爭的決定性導因，

are consciously devoted to the goal of creating a conflict between democracy,

我要註明，拉登和他的追隨者，

or at least capitalist democracy, on the one hand,

刻意製造和挑撥民主和伊斯蘭世界間的矛盾，

and the world of Islam as they see and define it.

一面是資本主義民主，

Now, how is Islam a technology in this conceptual apparatus?

一面是他們眼中的伊斯蘭世界。

Well, it's a technology for, first, salvation in its most basic sense.

好了，回教在這個概念上又是那一門的技術呢？

It's meant to be a mechanism for construing the universe

首先，她的根本性是救贖的機制，

in a way that will bring about the salvation of the individual believer,

她的原意是演繹宇宙的一種方式，

but it's also meant by the Islamists --

讓信徒從而獲得救贖，

and I use that term to mean people who believe that Islam --

但對信奉回教的

they follow the slogan, Islam is the answer to a wide range of questions,

伊斯蘭信徒來講，

whether they're social, or political, or personal, or spiritual.

伊斯蘭能解答各種問題，

Within the sphere of people who have that view,

無論是社會的、政治的、個人的或靈性的，

and it's a large number of people in the Muslim world

這類信徒組成

who disagree with bin Laden in his application,

穆斯林世界的大部分，

but agree that Islam is the answer.

他們雖然不同意拉登的手法，

Islam represents a way of engaging the world

卻同意在伊斯蘭能找到答案；

through which one can achieve certain desirable goals.

伊斯蘭代表一種處世之道，

And the goals from the perspective of Muslims are, in principle,

她能讓人達到一些高尚的目標，

peace, justice and equality,

用回教徒的角度，

but on terms that correspond to traditional Muslim teachings.

和平、公義和平等原則上都是他們所追求的，

Now, I don't want to leave a misimpression

但是要根據傳統穆斯林教化而詮釋；

by identifying either of these propositions --

好了，請不要誤會，

rather, either of these phenomena, democracy or Islam -- as technologies.

我指出這兩個提議－－

I don't want to suggest that they are a single thing that you can point to.

應該說是這兩個現象：民主和伊斯蘭，都是技術，

And I think a good way to prove this

並不表示她們是同一樣的實物，

is simply to demonstrate to you what my thought process was

一個解釋的好方法，

when deciding what to put on the wall behind me when I spoke.

就是讓你替我想想，我在演講時，

And I ran immediately into a conceptual problem:

在後面的牆上應放些甚麼，

you can't show a picture of democracy.

我立即遇到一個概念問題，

You can show a slogan, or a symbol, or a sign that stands for democracy.

你不能用圖片表達民主，

You can show the Capitol --

你可以展示口號，或者一個符號，或一個代表民主的標誌，

I had the same problem when I was designing the cover

你可以展示美國國會大廈，

of my forthcoming book, in fact --

當我設計我的新書封面時

what do you put on the cover to show democracy?

已遇到同樣的問題，

And the same problem with respect to Islam.

用甚麼圖像來表達民主呢？

You can show a mosque, or you can show worshippers,

對伊斯蘭亦有同樣的問題，

but there's not a straightforward way of depicting Islam.

你可以用清真寺，或朝拜者，

That's because these are the kinds of concepts

但卻沒有一個直接描繪伊斯蘭的方法，

that are not susceptible to easy representation.

因為這些是

Now, it follows from that, that they're deeply contestable.

不容易表達的概念；

It follows from that that all of the people in the world

亦因此，它們是深具爭議性的，

who say that they are Muslims can, in principle,

亦因此，世界上所有

subscribe to a wide range of different interpretations

自稱是回教徒的人，在原則上，

of what Islam really is, and the same is true of democracy.

能信奉各種不同對伊斯蘭真義的演繹，

In other words, unlike the word hope,

民主亦然，

which one could look up in a dictionary and derive origins for,

換句話說，有別於那些辭－－例如「希望」，

and, perhaps, reach some kind of a consensual use analysis,

你能在字典上查到出處，

these are essentially contested concepts.

或能找到某種公認的用法，

They're ideas about which people disagree in the deepest possible sense.

這些名詞的概念本身就具爭議，

And as a consequence of this disagreement,

是人們在最根本的意義上有不同看法的，

it's very, very difficult for anyone to say,

由此，

"I have the right version of Islam."

我們不可以說：

You know, post-9/11, we were treated to the amazing phenomenon

「我對伊斯蘭的理解就是正確的版本。」

of George W. Bush saying, "Islam means peace."

在9/11之後，我們親歷這個奇異的現象，

Well, so says George W. Bush.

布殊說：「伊斯蘭即是和平。」

Other people would say it means something else.

好吧，那是布殊的說法，

Some people would say that Islam means submission.

其他人會說伊斯蘭是其他東西，

Other people would say it means an acknowledgement

一些人會說伊斯蘭即是「順從」，

or recognition of God's sovereignty.

其他人會說伊斯蘭是對神的管治

There are a wide range of different things that Islam can mean.

的認同和理解，

And ostensibly, the same is true of democracy.

伊斯蘭的可以有很多不同的演繹；

Some people say that democracy consists basically in elections.

似乎民主也是一樣，

Other people say no, that's not enough,

一些人說民主基本體現在選舉中，

there have to be basic liberal rights: free speech, free press, equality of citizens.

其他人卻不認同，認為這個解說不全面，

These are contested points, and it's impossible to answer them by saying,

民主還要有基本的自由權利：言論、出版的自由和人民的平等，

"Ah ha, I looked in the right place, and I found out what these concepts mean."

這些是爭議點，我們不可以這樣回答：

Now, if Islam and democracy are at present

「啊，我已經在適當的地方查過，並找出這些概念的意思。」

in a moment of great confrontation,

如果，現在伊斯蘭和民主在這一刻，

what does that mean?

來一個大對決，

Well, you could fit it into a range of different interpretative frameworks.

那是甚麼意思？

You could begin with the one that we began with a couple of days ago,

你可以用不同的框架去詮釋，

which was fear.

其一是前兩天我們講過的，

Fear is not an implausible reaction with a war just around the corner

那就是「恐懼」，

and with a very, very high likelihood that many, many people are going to die

在戰爭一觸即發之際，「恐懼」並非不可理解的回應，

as a consequence of this confrontation --

有很多人很可能因此送命，

a confrontation which many, many people

由於這次對決－－

in the Muslim world do not want,

一個很多回教世界的人

many, many people in the American democracy do not want,

不想見到的對決，

many people elsewhere in the world do not want,

很多美式民主世界的人不想見到的對決，

but which nonetheless is favored by a large enough number of people --

很多世界各地的人都不想見到的對決，

at least in the relevant space, which is the United States --

但不論如何，卻有一班足夠多的人，

to actually go forward. So fear is not a crazy response at all.

至少在關鍵的地方－－美國－－

And I think that that's, in fact, probably the first appropriate response.

認為應該進行，所以「恐懼」並非不理性的反應，

What I want to suggest to you, though, in the next couple of minutes

而我認為，那其實可能是第一個合理的反應，

is that there's also a hopeful response to this.

但我想在以下的時間向你提出的是，

And the hopeful response derives from recognizing

另一個回應是「希望」，

that Islam and democracy are technologies.

「希望」源於我們認識到

And by virtue of being technologies, they're manipulable.

伊斯蘭和民主都是一種技術機制，

And they're manipulable in ways

既然她們是機制，即是可以受操控，

that can produce some extremely positive outcomes.

在操控之下達致

What do I have in mind?

一些極之正面的結果，

Well, all over the Muslim world there are people

我的意思是甚麼呢？

who take Islam deeply seriously, people who care about Islam,

在回教世界中，有些人

for whom it's a source either of faith, or of civilization, or of deep values,

極之嚴肅的對待伊斯蘭，他們關心伊斯蘭，

or just a source of powerful personal identity,

對他們來說，伊斯蘭可能是信念、是文明、是深層的價值，

who think and are saying loudly that Islam and democracy

又或是強烈的個人身份認同，

are in fact not in conflict, but are in fact deeply compatible.

他們認為伊斯蘭和民主其實並無衝突，

And these Muslims -- and it's the vast majority of Muslims --

反而是深深的共融，他們並大力宣揚這個信念；

disagree profoundly with bin Laden's approach, profoundly.

而這些回教徒－－他們是大多數－－

And they furthermore think overwhelmingly --

徹底反對拉登的手法，

again one can't speak of every person, but overwhelmingly,

他們絕大多數的呼聲－－

and one can find this by reading any of the sources

雖然我們不能代每一個人說話，但他們肯定是大多數－－

that they have produced, and they're all over the Internet

但我們在各資訊媒體找到他們的呼聲，

and in all sorts of languages -- one can see that they're saying

在互聯網上很容易找到他們

that their concern in their own countries is primarily to free up themselves

以各種語言，宣揚他們的聲音，

to have choice in the spheres of personal life,

他們所關注的，是在各自國家怎樣解放自己，

in the sphere of economics, in the sphere of politics,

在個人生活上、經濟上、政治上、

and, yes, in the sphere of religion,

怎樣有所選擇，

which is itself closely regulated in most of the Muslim world.

甚至是宗教上－－

And many of these Muslims further say

一個在穆斯林世界中嚴密控制的範疇－－有所選擇；

that their disagreement with the United States

很多這些回教徒進而認為，

is that it, in the past and still in the present,

他們反對美國的，

has sided with autocratic rulers in the Muslim world

在於美國在過去，甚至現在，

in order to promote America's short-term interests.

都站在回教世界中的專制統治者一方，

Now, during the Cold War, that may have been

只為了提升美國的短期利益；

a defensible position for the United States to take.

在冷戰時期，那還可以說是

That's an academic question.

美國自我防衛的一種取態，

It may be that there was a great war to be fought between West and East,

那可以是一個學術討論，

and it was necessary on the axis of democracy against communism.

可能在東西方的大角力中，

And it was necessary in some way for these to contradict each other,

必須建立民主軸心同盟以對抗社會主義，

and as a consequence you have to make friends wherever you can get them.

有必要讓這兩種東西在某方面互相對立，

But now that the Cold War is over,

於是，誰跟你做朋友，你也只好接受了，

there's nearly universal consensus in the Muslim world --

但現在冷戰已經結束，

and pretty close to the same here in the United States,

在回教世界裏，差不多所有人都有共識，

if you talk to people and ask them --

而在美國也是一樣，

that in principle, there's no reason that democracy and Islam cannot co-exist.

如果你問他們，

And we see this among activist, practical Muslims,

原則上，民主和伊斯蘭沒有理由不能共存，

like the Muslims who are presently the elected,

我們可見這些活躍的、實事求是的回教徒，

parliamentary, democratic government of Turkey,

例如土耳其的穆斯林，

who are behaving pragmatically, not ideologically,

他們的國家都有民選的國會和民主政府，

who are promoting their own religious values,

他們作風務實，不流於理想主義，

who are elected by their own people

他們推廣自己的宗教價值，

because they were perceived as honest and sincere

他們憑著自己的誠實和誠懇，

because of their religious values,

憑著他們的宗教價值，

but who do not think that Islam and a democratic system of governance

由自己的人民選出來，

are fundamentally incompatible.

他們並不認為伊斯蘭和民主政制

Now, you may say, but surely, what we've seen on television about Saudi Islam

有著根本的矛盾，

convinces us that it can't possibly be compatible

你或會說，我們在電視上見到沙地的回教徒，

with what we consider the core of democracy --

明顯告訴我們，他們的價值

namely, free political choice, basic liberty and basic equality.

和我們認同的民主核心價值沒有可能共容，

But I'm here to tell you that technologies

包括政治上的自由選擇、基本自由和平等，

are more malleable than that.

但我在這裏告訴你，

I'm here to tell you that many, many Muslims believe --

技術機制的延展性是很高的，

the vast majority, in fact -- in fact I think I would go so far as to say

我想告訴你，很多很多回教徒－－

that many Muslims in Saudi Arabia believe that the core values of Islam,

可以說是絕大多數的回教徒，我甚至敢說

namely acknowledgement of God's sovereignty

很多沙地阿拉伯的回教徒－－

and basic human equality before God,

都相信伊斯蘭的核心價值－－包括承認神的管治，

are themselves compatible with liberty, equality and free political choice.

和神面前人們基本平等，

And there are Muslims, many Muslims out there, who are saying precisely this.

本身與自由、平等和自由政治選擇是同出一轍的，

And they're making this argument wherever they're permitted to make it.

很多回教徒都是這樣說，

But their governments, needless to say, are relatively threatened by this.

他們把握每一個機會，提出這個論調，

And for the most part try to stop them from making this argument.

但他們的政府當然感到一定的威脅，

So, for example, a group of young activists in Egypt

而盡量阻止他們宣揚這個論調，

try to form a party known as the Center Party,

例如，在埃及，一群年青的活躍份子，

which advocated the compatibility of Islam and democracy.

打算組成一個叫「中心黨」的政黨，

They weren't even allowed to form a party.

鼓催伊斯蘭和民主的共容，

They were actually blocked from even forming a party

他們連組成政黨都不被批准，

under the political system there. Why?

根據當地的政治制度，

Because they would have done extraordinarily well.

他們根本是被禁止組黨，為甚麼呢？

In the most recent elections in the Muslim world --

因為若果他們成功，一定會得到很多支持，

which are those in Pakistan, those in Morocco

在穆斯林世界中，近期的選舉，包括

and those in Turkey -- in each case,

在巴基斯坦、摩洛哥和土耳其，

people who present themselves to the electorate as Islamic democrats

每一次，

were far and away the most successful vote-getters