and have been for quite a number of years now:

我們現在面對的一個重大問題

are we at risk of a nuclear attack?

這個問題已經存在許多年了

Now, there's a bigger question

我們在核攻擊的威脅下嗎?

that's probably actually more important than that,

現在，有一個更大的問題

is the notion of permanently eliminating

這個問題比之前的問題重要

the possibility of a nuclear attack,

是提議永遠消除

eliminating the threat altogether.

核攻擊的可能性

And I would like to make a case to you that

從而一起消滅威脅。

over the years since we first developed atomic weaponry,

我想告訴你

until this very moment,

自從我們發明了第一個核武器

we've actually lived in a dangerous nuclear world

到現在

that's characterized by two phases,

我們其實活在一個非常危險的世界

which I'm going to go through with you right now.

他以兩個階段為特徵

First of all, we started off the nuclear age in 1945.

我們現在會一起回顧

The United States had developed a couple of atomic weapons

一開始，我們在1945年開始核時期

through the Manhattan Project,

美國研發了幾種核武器

and the idea was very straightforward:

通過曼哈頓計畫

we would use the power of the atom

想法是很直白的

to end the atrocities and the horror

我們會用原子的力量

of this unending World War II

來結束這個殘酷，恐怖的

that we'd been involved in in Europe and in the Pacific.

看似沒有盡頭的第二次世界大戰

And in 1945,

我們在歐洲和太平洋都有參戰

we were the only nuclear power.

在1945年

We had a few nuclear weapons,

我們是唯一的核武國家

two of which we dropped on Japan, in Hiroshima,

我們有少量的核武器

a few days later in Nagasaki, in August 1945,

其中兩個我們轟在了日本的廣島

killing about 250,000 people between those two.

幾天以後在長崎，1945年8月

And for a few years,

這兩次轟炸其間250,000人被奪取了生命

we were the only nuclear power on Earth.

在這之後的幾年

But by 1949, the Soviet Union had decided

我們是唯一的核武國家

it was unacceptable to have us as the only nuclear power,

但是在1949年，蘇聯決定

and they began to match what the United States had developed.

只有美國有核武器是無法令人接受的

And from 1949 to 1985

他們試圖追上美國在核武器上的科技

was an extraordinary time

從1949到1985年

of a buildup of a nuclear arsenal

是一段不尋常的時期

that no one could possibly have imagined

他們在建立一個核子軍備庫

back in the 1940s.

這在那時候是難以想像的

So by 1985 -- each of those red bombs up here

這是1940年的時候

is equivalent of a thousands warheads --

所以到1985年，這上面每一個紅色的炸彈

the world had

都相當於一千個彈頭

65,000 nuclear warheads,

這個世界有

and seven members of something

65,000個核彈頭

that came to be known as the "nuclear club."

七個會員

And it was an extraordinary time,

被稱為"核俱樂部."

and I am going to go through some of the mentality

這是一段不尋常的時期

that we -- that Americans and the rest of the world were experiencing.

我們會去看一下人們當時的心態

But I want to just point out to you that 95 percent

我們－美國人和全世界的經歷

of the nuclear weapons at any particular time

但是我想指出95%

since 1985 -- going forward, of course --

的核子彈不管在甚麼時間

were part of the arsenals

自從1985年－往之前看－

of the United States and the Soviet Union.

都是美國和蘇聯的

After 1985, and before the break up of the Soviet Union,

軍火庫

we began to disarm

1985年以後，和蘇聯分裂之前

from a nuclear point of view.

從核的角度來看

We began to counter-proliferate,

我們開始卸下核武。

and we dropped the number of nuclear warheads in the world

我們開始反擴散，

to about a total of 21,000.

我們在世界上引爆了一定數量的核彈頭

It's a very difficult number to deal with,

一直到剩下21,000個。

because what we've done is

這是一個很難解決的數字，

we've quote unquote "decommissioned" some of the warheads.

因為我們做的是

They're still probably usable. They could be "re-commissioned,"

引用, 使某些彈頭”退役“了

but the way they count things, which is very complicated,

他們可能還能使用，可以”重新啓用“

we think we have about a third

但是他們數東西的方法，是非常複雜的

of the nuclear weapons we had before.

我們認為我們有三分之一

But we also, in that period of time,

的核武器（相較以前）

added two more members to the nuclear club:

但是我們也，在那段時間

Pakistan and North Korea.

加入了兩個核國家到核子俱樂部:

So we stand today with a still fully armed nuclear arsenal

巴基斯坦和朝鮮。

among many countries around the world,

所以我們現在還是有全武裝的核軍備庫

but a very different set of circumstances.

在眾多的國家之上

So I'm going to talk about

但是這是一個非常不一樣的情況。

a nuclear threat story in two chapters.

所以我會講

Chapter one is 1949 to 1991,

兩章關於核威脅的故事。

when the Soviet Union broke up,

第一章是從1949到1991，

and what we were dealing with, at that point and through those years,

當蘇聯解體的時候

was a superpowers' nuclear arms race.

我們當時面對的，以及那幾十年

It was characterized by

是超級大國的軍備競賽。

a nation-versus-nation,

特徵是

very fragile standoff.

國家對國家，

And basically,

非常脆弱的僵持。

we lived for all those years,

基本上，

and some might argue that we still do,

我們活過那些年，

in a situation of

有些人會爭論說我們仍然在

being on the brink, literally,

一個情況：

of an apocalyptic, planetary calamity.

我們在地球災難的

It's incredible that we actually lived through all that.

邊緣上

We were totally dependent during those years

我們活過那些年是難以置信的

on this amazing acronym, which is MAD.

我們當時靠的

It stands for mutually assured destruction.

是這令人驚歎的縮寫, MAD

So it meant

他代表Mutually Assured Destruction.

if you attacked us, we would attack you

這意味著如果你

virtually simultaneously,

如果你攻擊我們，我們也會攻擊你

and the end result would be a destruction

幾乎同時，

of your country and mine.

不論是你的國家還是我的

So the threat of my own destruction

結果都是毀滅

kept me from launching

所以自我毀滅的威脅

a nuclear attack on you. That's the way we lived.

抑制我們國家向你的國家

And the danger of that, of course, is that

發動核攻擊。這是我們怎麼活的。

a misreading of a radar screen

而危險是，

could actually cause a counter-launch,

雷達的誤導

even though the first country had not actually launched anything.

有可能導致"反擊",

During this chapter one,

即使第一個國家甚麼也沒有發射。

there was a high level of public awareness

在這第一章里

about the potential of nuclear catastrophe,

有高度的群眾覺知

and an indelible image was implanted

關於這潛在的核威脅，

in our collective minds

一個不可磨滅的圖像被灌輸到

that, in fact, a nuclear holocaust

我們的覺知

would be absolutely globally destructive

一場核災難

and could, in some ways, mean the end of civilization as we know it.

絕對全球毀滅性

So this was chapter one.

並會，在某種程度上，意味著人類的滅亡。

Now the odd thing is that even though

所以這是第一章

we knew that there would be

現在奇怪的是，儘管

that kind of civilization obliteration,

我們知道有可能

we engaged in America in a series --

會造成人類滅亡，

and in fact, in the Soviet Union --

我們回應了，在美國，一系列的

in a series of response planning.

而且，在蘇聯

It was absolutely incredible.

一系列的回應計畫。

So premise one is we'd be destroying the world,

這是難以置信的

and then premise two is, why don't we get prepared for it?

所以前提一是我們會毀滅世界，

So what

而前提二是，我們為甚麼不為此作準備呢？

we offered ourselves

所以我們

was a collection of things. I'm just going to go skim through a few things,

我們給自己的是

just to jog your memories.

一系列的物品。我會略講一些東西，

If you're born after 1950, this is just --

來帶起你的回憶。

consider this entertainment, otherwise it's memory lane.

如果你在1950年出生的，這只是

This was Bert the Turtle. (Video)

把這當成娛樂，不然就是回憶往事。

This was basically an attempt

這是烏龜Bert.

to teach our schoolchildren

這是一個嘗試

that if we did get engaged

來教我們在學校的孩子

in a nuclear confrontation and atomic war,

如果我們遭受核攻擊

then we wanted our school children

在核衝突和核戰，

to kind of basically duck and cover.

那我們希望我們在學校的孩子

That was the principle. You --

基本上躲閃並覆蓋自己。

there would be a nuclear conflagration

這是法則。你

about to hit us, and if you get under your desk,

會有一場核火災

things would be OK.

快要攻擊我們了，如果你只要躲到桌底下，

(Laughter)

就不會有事了。

I didn't do all that well

(笑聲)

in psychiatry in medical school, but I was interested,

我在醫學院里的精神病學

and I think this was seriously delusional.

並沒有做得特別好，但是我對此感興趣，

(Laughter)

我覺得這是極度妄想。

Secondly, we told people

(笑聲)

to go down in their basements

第二，我們告訴人們

and build a fallout shelter.

到底下室

Maybe it would be a study when we weren't having an atomic war,

建立一個放射性塵埃避難室。

or you could use it as a TV room, or, as many teenagers found out,

也許會是一個研究，當我們不在核戰中，

a very, very safe place for a little privacy with your girlfriend.

或許你可以用來當電視機房，或者，許多青少年發現，

And actually -- so there are multiple uses of the bomb shelters.

和女友一個非常，非常安全並且私密的地方。

Or you could buy a prefabricated bomb shelter

事實上－避難室有很多用處。

that you could simply bury in the ground.

或者你可以買一個預製的避難室

Now, the bomb shelters at that point --

將他埋在底下。

let's say you bought a prefab one -- it would be a few hundred dollars,

現在，避難室

maybe up to 500, if you got a fancy one.

假設你買一個預製的。那大概會是幾百美金，

Yet, what percentage of Americans

說不定500美金如果你買一個特別好的，

do you think ever had a bomb shelter in their house?

但是百分之多少的美國人

What percentage lived in a house with a bomb shelter?

你認為有一個避難室在他們家里？

Less than two percent. About 1.4 percent

百分之多少人住在一個有避難室的家？

of the population, as far as anyone knows,

少於2％。大概1.4%

did anything,

的人口，至少現在知道的，

either making a space in their basement

在他們的地下室

or actually building a bomb shelter.

騰出空擋

Many buildings, public buildings, around the country --

或者建立一個避難室。

this is New York City -- had these little civil defense signs,

許多建築物－這個國家里的公共建築物－

and the idea was that you would

這是紐約市－有這些小民防標誌，

run into one of these shelters and be safe

想法是你可以

from the nuclear weaponry.

跑進這些安全的避難所

And one of the greatest governmental delusions

並可以脫離核武器的威脅。

of all time was something that happened

這是最迷惑群眾的政府措施之一

in the early days of

有些事情發生在

the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, as we now know,

早期的

and are well aware of their behaviors from Katrina.

聯邦應急管理署， 我們稱之為FEMA，

Here is their first big public

我們從Katrina颱風的行動知道了他們。

announcement.

這是他們第一個大型

They would propose --

公告。

actually there were about six volumes written on this --

他們提議－他們－

a crisis relocation plan

其實他們寫了六冊書－

that was dependent upon

一個災難疏散計畫

the United States having three to four days warning

這是基於

that the Soviets were going to attack us.

美國有三到四天的預警

So the goal was to evacuate the target cities.

蘇聯會攻擊我們。

We would move people out of the target cities

所以目標是疏散目標城市。

into the countryside.

我們將人們撤離目標城市

And I'm telling you, I actually testified at the Senate

到郊外。

about the absolute ludicrous idea

我告訴你，我在參議院作證

that we would actually evacuate,

關於這個荒唐的想法

and actually have three or four days' warning.

我們會撤離，

It was just completely off the wall.

並且有三或者四天的預警。

Turns out that they had another idea

這是完全不可能的。

behind it, even though this was --

原來他們還有另一個想法

they were telling the public it was to save us.

在這背後，即便是

The idea was that we would force the Soviets

他們在告訴公眾，這會幸免我們於災難。

to re-target their nuclear weapons -- very expensive --

這想法是我們會逼蘇聯人

and potentially double their arsenal,

讓他們的核武器重新鎖定－這會耗費大量的金錢－

to not only take out the original site,

他們還可能使他們的軍備庫翻倍

but take out sites where people were going.

不僅摧毀原定目標，

This was what apparently, as it turns out, was behind all this.

更摧毀人們要去的目標。

It was just really, really frightening.

這很明顯會是計畫實施的後果。

The main point here is we were dealing with

這讓人十分，十分害怕。

a complete disconnect from reality.

我們的計畫

The civil defense programs were disconnected

完全不現實。

from the reality of what we'd see in all-out nuclear war.

民防組織的計畫脫離了

So organizations like Physicians for Social Responsibility,

現實中的核戰爭爆發。

around 1979, started saying this a lot publicly.

所以像社會責任醫生組織，

They would do a bombing run. They'd go to your city,

在1979年，開始大量地在公共場合談及這事：

and they'd say, "Here's a map of your city.

他們會進行一系列的轟炸。他們會去你的城市，

Here's what's going to happen if we get a nuclear hit."

他們會說，“這事你城市的地圖。

So no possibility of medical response to,

這是我們受到核攻擊後會發生的事。”

or meaningful preparedness for

所以當核戰全面爆發時

all-out nuclear war.

醫療部門不可能反應

So we had to prevent nuclear war

或者作有意義的準備。

if we expected to survive.

所以我們要預防核戰

This disconnect was never actually resolved.

如果我們想要存活。

And what happened was --

這個問題其實從來沒有被解決。

when we get in to chapter two

接下來發生的是

of the nuclear threat era,

當我們進入第二章

which started back in 1945.

那個核威脅的時代

Chapter two starts in 1991.

它從1945年開始。

When the Soviet Union broke up,

第二章從1991年開始。

we effectively lost that adversary

當蘇聯解體，

as a potential attacker of the United States, for the most part.

我們有效地擺脫了對手

It's not completely gone. I'm going to come back to that.

蘇聯是美國的潛在侵略者，和大程度來講。

But from 1991

它還沒有完全小時。我等一下會回到這裡。

through the present time,

但是從1991年開始

emphasized by the attacks of 2001,

一直到現在，

the idea of an all-out nuclear war

2001年的攻擊突現出了，

has diminished and the idea of a single event,

一場全面爆發的核戰的想法

act of nuclear terrorism

縮小了，而一個想法

is what we have instead.

恐怖分子發動核攻擊

Although the scenario has changed

是我們現在有的。

very considerably, the fact is

儘管情況轉變了

that we haven't changed our mental image

事實上

of what a nuclear war means.

我們仍然沒有轉變我們腦中的想法

So I'm going to tell you what the implications of that are in just a second.

一場核戰意味著甚麼。

So, what is a nuclear terror threat?

所以我會告訴你那代表甚麼。

And there's four key ingredients to describing that.

所以，核恐怖威脅是甚麼？

First thing is that the global nuclear weapons,

有四個要點了描述它

in the stockpiles that I showed you in those original maps,

第一是全球核武器－

happen to be not uniformly secure.

在儲備物資中我向你展示了原本的地圖－

And it's particularly not secure

他們並沒有那麼安全。

in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia.

更不安全的是

There are many, many sites where warheads are stored

在前蘇聯，現在俄羅斯。

and, in fact, lots of sites where fissionable materials,

有許多，許多擺放彈頭的地方

like highly enriched uranium and plutonium,

事實上，這些地方有很多有可分裂的材料，

are absolutely not safe.

像高濃度的鈾和鈈，

They're available to be bought, stolen, whatever.

非常不安全。

They're acquirable, let me put it that way.

他們能夠被購買，偷走等等。

From 1993 through 2006,

這樣說吧，他們是能得到的。

the International Atomic Energy Agency