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  • Cultural evolution is a dangerous child

    譯者: Manlai YOU 審譯者: Chun-wen Chen

  • for any species to let loose on its planet.

    文化的演化是個危險小孩

  • By the time you realize what's happening, the child is a toddler,

    任何物種如果放任它在星球上。

  • up and causing havoc, and it's too late to put it back.

    等你察覺出了事,小孩已在學步,

  • We humans are Earth's Pandoran species.

    四處闖禍,將它帶回已太遲。

  • We're the ones who let the second replicator out of its box,

    我們人類是地球的潘朵拉物種。

  • and we can't push it back in.

    我們把第二個複製體放出盒子,

  • We're seeing the consequences all around us.

    而我們無法將它收回。

  • Now that, I suggest, is the view that

    我們正看到身邊的後果。

  • comes out of taking memetics seriously.

    現在,我認為這個觀點

  • And it gives us a new way of thinking about

    是認真看待迷因論而來的。

  • not only what's going on on our planet,

    它提供我們一個新方法去思考

  • but what might be going on elsewhere in the cosmos.

    不僅我們星球發生了什麼事,

  • So first of all, I'd like to say something about memetics

    還有宇宙他處可能有什麼事。

  • and the theory of memes,

    首先,我要談談迷因論,

  • and secondly, how this might answer questions about who's out there,

    就是迷因的理論,

  • if indeed anyone is.

    其次,談這可能解答外太空有誰,

  • So, memetics:

    是否真的有誰。

  • memetics is founded on the principle of Universal Darwinism.

    迷因論。

  • Darwin had this amazing idea.

    迷因論是根據通用達爾文理論而來的。

  • Indeed, some people say

    達爾文有這個驚奇想法。

  • it's the best idea anybody ever had.

    真的,有人說:

  • Isn't that a wonderful thought, that there could be such a thing

    那是有史以來最好的想法。

  • as a best idea anybody ever had?

    那豈不是絕妙的觀點,認為有件事可以是

  • Do you think there could?

    有史以來最好的想法?

  • Audience: No.

    你認為有可能嗎?

  • (Laughter)

    (觀眾:不)

  • Susan Blackmore: Someone says no, very loudly, from over there.

    (笑聲)

  • Well, I say yes, and if there is, I give the prize to Darwin.

    那邊有人很大聲地說:「不」。

  • Why?

    但我說「有」,如果有,我將頒獎給達爾文。

  • Because the idea was so simple,

    為什麼?

  • and yet it explains all design in the universe.

    因為這個想法那麼簡單,

  • I would say not just biological design,

    卻解釋了宇宙的一切設計。

  • but all of the design that we think of as human design.

    我認為不只是生物的設計,

  • It's all just the same thing happening.

    還有一切我們認為的人為設計。

  • What did Darwin say?

    其發生的原理完全一樣。

  • I know you know the idea, natural selection,

    達爾文說了什麼?

  • but let me just paraphrase "The Origin of Species," 1859,

    我想你知道他的想法:「天擇」

  • in a few sentences.

    讓我用「物種起源」, 1859 年版,

  • What Darwin said was something like this:

    套幾句話解釋一下。

  • if you have creatures that vary, and that can't be doubted --

    達爾文說的就像 -

  • I've been to the Galapagos, and I've measured the size of the beaks

    如果你有生物的變異,這是無庸置疑的 -

  • and the size of the turtle shells and so on, and so on.

    我到過加拉巴哥群島,測量過鳥嘴

  • And 100 pages later.

    和龜殼的尺寸等等...

  • (Laughter)

    翻過 100 頁 -

  • And if there is a struggle for life,

    (笑聲)

  • such that nearly all of these creatures die --

    如果有生存競爭,

  • and this can't be doubted, I've read Malthus

    使幾乎所有的生物都死亡 -

  • and I've calculated how long it would take for elephants

    這無庸置疑,我讀過馬爾薩斯

  • to cover the whole world if they bred unrestricted, and so on and so on.

    我計算過要多少時間會使大象

  • And another 100 pages later.

    在不受限制的成長下,充滿整個世界,等等...

  • And if the very few that survive pass onto their offspring

    再翻過 100 頁。

  • whatever it was that helped them survive,

    如果少數幾個活下來,傳承給子孫

  • then those offspring must be better adapted

    有助它們存活的任何條件,

  • to the circumstances in which all this happened

    則這些子孫必然比祖先

  • than their parents were.

    更能適應發生這一切

  • You see the idea?

    的環境情況。

  • If, if, if, then.

    你看到這個想法了嗎?

  • He had no concept of the idea of an algorithm,

    如果、如果、如果,則

  • but that's what he described in that book,

    他並沒有運算法的概念。

  • and this is what we now know as the evolutionary algorithm.

    但他在書上寫的就是這樣,

  • The principle is you just need those three things --

    就是現在我們所知的演化運算法。

  • variation, selection and heredity.

    原則上你只需三樣東西 -

  • And as Dan Dennett puts it, if you have those,

    變異、選擇、及遺傳。

  • then you must get evolution.

    就如 Dan Dennett 所說,如果有這些

  • Or design out of chaos, without the aid of mind.

    必然會有演化。

  • There's one word I love on that slide.

    或:不用心智的輔助,混沌即會產出設計。

  • What do you think my favorite word is?

    幻燈片中有個字我很喜歡,

  • Audience: Chaos.

    你猜我喜歡的是哪個字?

  • SB: Chaos? No. What? Mind? No.

    (觀眾:混沌)

  • Audience: Without.

    「混沌」?不是。「心智」?不是。

  • SB: No, not without.

    (觀眾:不用)

  • (Laughter)

    不是,不是「不用」。

  • You try them all in order: Mmm...?

    (笑聲)

  • Audience: Must.

    你們依序再猜:嗯?

  • SB: Must, at must. Must, must.

    (觀眾:必然)

  • This is what makes it so amazing.

    必然、必然、必然、必然。

  • You don't need a designer,

    就是它才那麼驚奇。

  • or a plan, or foresight, or anything else.

    你不需要設計師,

  • If there's something that is copied with variation

    或計畫,或先見、或任何什麼。

  • and it's selected, then you must get design appearing out of nowhere.

    如果有變異的複製

  • You can't stop it.

    並被選擇,則無中必然會有設計出現。

  • Must is my favorite word there.

    你無法停止它。

  • Now, what's this to do with memes?

    此處,「必然」是我喜歡的字。

  • Well, the principle here applies to anything

    而這和迷因有什關係?

  • that is copied with variation and selection.

    嗯,這個原則適用任何情形

  • We're so used to thinking in terms of biology,

    就是有變異和選擇的複製。

  • we think about genes this way.

    我們太習慣於生物學的觀點,

  • Darwin didn't, of course; he didn't know about genes.

    我們以此方式思考基因。

  • He talked mostly about animals and plants,

    達爾文則當然沒有, 他不知道基因。

  • but also about languages evolving and becoming extinct.

    他大部分提到動物、植物,

  • But the principle of Universal Darwinism

    但也提到語言的演化與滅絕。

  • is that any information that is varied and selected

    但通用達爾文論的原則

  • will produce design.

    是任何有變異及被選擇的資訊

  • And this is what Richard Dawkins was on about

    都會產生設計。

  • in his 1976 bestseller, "The Selfish Gene."

    這也是理察·道金斯在他的

  • The information that is copied, he called the replicator.

    1976 年暢銷書「自私的基因」中談的。

  • It selfishly copies.

    被複製的資訊,他叫做複製體。

  • Not meaning it kind of sits around inside cells going, "I want to get copied."

    它自私地複製。

  • But that it will get copied if it can,

    不是說它躺在細胞裡叫著「我要被複製」。

  • regardless of the consequences.

    而是只要能夠,它就會被複製,

  • It doesn't care about the consequences because it can't,

    不論後果如何。

  • because it's just information being copied.

    它不在意後果,因為它無從在意,

  • And he wanted to get away

    因為複製的只是資訊。

  • from everybody thinking all the time about genes,

    他想要跳脫,

  • and so he said, "Is there another replicator out there on the planet?"

    大家總是想到基因,

  • Ah, yes, there is.

    因此他說:「行星上還有另一個複製體嗎?」

  • Look around you -- here will do, in this room.

    是的,有的。

  • All around us, still clumsily drifting about

    看看四周,這房間裡就有。

  • in its primeval soup of culture, is another replicator.

    我們四周,仍拙然浮現著

  • Information that we copy from person to person, by imitation,

    文化原汁的,是另一個複製體。

  • by language, by talking, by telling stories,

    經由模仿,資訊在人與人之間複製著,

  • by wearing clothes, by doing things.

    經由語言、交談、敍事、

  • This is information copied with variation and selection.

    穿著、行為等。

  • This is design process going on.

    這是有變異與選擇的資訊複製。

  • He wanted a name for the new replicator.

    是進行中的設計過程。

  • So, he took the Greek word "mimeme," which means that which is imitated.

    他要為這新複製體取個新名字。

  • Remember that, that's the core definition:

    因此他用希臘字 mimeme,意指「模仿之物」。

  • that which is imitated.

    記住,這是它的本義。

  • And abbreviated it to meme, just because it sounds good

    指「模仿之物」。

  • and made a good meme, an effective spreading meme.

    將它簡化為 meme,因為好唸

  • So that's how the idea came about.

    而成為好的迷因,有效傳播的迷因。

  • It's important to stick with that definition.

    這就是此想法的來源。

  • The whole science of memetics is much maligned,

    謹守這個定義是重要的。

  • much misunderstood, much feared.

    整個迷因論受到太多詆毀,

  • But a lot of these problems can be avoided

    太多誤解,太多憂懼。

  • by remembering the definition.

    但許多問題可以避免掉,

  • A meme is not equivalent to an idea.

    只要記住這個定義。

  • It's not an idea. It's not equivalent to anything else, really.

    迷因不等於一個想法。

  • Stick with the definition.

    它不是想法,它也不等於任何事,,真的。

  • It's that which is imitated,

    謹守這個定義。

  • or information which is copied from person to person.

    它是模仿之物。

  • So, let's see some memes.

    或指在人與人之間複製的資訊。

  • Well, you sir, you've got those glasses hung around your neck

    那麼,讓我們來看一些迷因。

  • in that particularly fetching way.

    先生,你的眼鏡掛在脖子上

  • I wonder whether you invented that idea for yourself,

    是一種特別的拿取方式。

  • or copied it from someone else?

    我好奇那是你自己發明的想法,

  • If you copied it from someone else, it's a meme.

    或複製自別人?

  • And what about, oh, I can't see any interesting memes here.

    如果你複製自別人,那就是個迷因。

  • All right everyone, who's got some interesting memes for me?

    還有,這裡我看不到任何有趣的迷因。

  • Oh, well, your earrings,

    各位,誰有有趣的迷因?

  • I don't suppose you invented the idea of earrings.

    好,你的耳環,

  • You probably went out and bought them.

    我不認為你發明了耳環的想法。

  • There are plenty more in the shops.

    或許是你出去買的。

  • That's something that's passed on from person to person.

    店裡有很多。

  • All the stories that we're telling -- well, of course,

    這就是在人與人之間傳遞的。

  • TED is a great meme-fest, masses of memes.

    所有我們說的故事,當然

  • The way to think about memes, though,

    TED 是個大的迷因饗宴,有大量的迷因。

  • is to think, why do they spread?

    考慮迷因的一個方式是,

  • They're selfish information, they will get copied, if they can.

    想想它們為什麼會傳播?

  • But some of them will be copied because they're good,

    它們是自私的資訊,它們盡可能讓人複製。

  • or true, or useful, or beautiful.

    有些被複製,因為它們很好、

  • Some of them will be copied even though they're not.

    真實、有用、或美妙。

  • Some, it's quite hard to tell why.

    有些雖不是,也將被複製。

  • There's one particular curious meme which I rather enjoy.

    有些,很難說明為什麼。

  • And I'm glad to say, as I expected, I found it when I came here,

    有一種特別好奇的迷因我很欣賞。

  • and I'm sure all of you found it, too.

    我很高興地說,如預期地我在這裡找到了它,

  • You go to your nice, posh, international hotel somewhere,

    我確定你們也都發現了它。

  • and you come in and you put down your clothes

    你到某處的豪華國際旅館,

  • and you go to the bathroom, and what do you see?

    進去後,放下你的衣服

  • Audience: Bathroom soap.

    到了浴室,你看到什麼?

  • SB: Pardon?

    (觀眾:肥皂)

  • Audience: Soap.

    什麼?

  • SB: Soap, yeah. What else do you see?

    (觀眾:肥皂)

  • Audience: (Inaudible)

    肥皂,是呀。還看到什麼?

  • SB: Mmm mmm.

    (觀眾:...)

  • Audience: Sink, toilet!

    嗯、嗯。

  • SB: Sink, toilet, yes, these are all memes, they're all memes,

    (觀眾:洗臉盆、馬桶)

  • but they're sort of useful ones, and then there's this one.

    洗臉盆、馬桶,對,這些都是迷因,都是迷因,

  • (Laughter)

    它們是有用的迷因,還有這個。

  • What is this one doing?

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    這個做什麼?

  • This has spread all over the world.

    (笑聲)

  • It's not surprising that you all found it

    這已傳遍全世界。

  • when you arrived in your bathrooms here.

    無疑你們都發現了它

  • But I took this photograph in a toilet at the back of a tent

    在你來到這裡的浴室時。

  • in the eco-camp in the jungle in Assam.

    但這張照片拍自一個帳篷後的廁所

  • (Laughter)

    是在阿隡姆叢林的生態營中。

  • Who folded that thing up there, and why?

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    誰把它摺成那樣,為什麼?

  • Some people get carried away.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    有些人受影響過了頭。

  • Other people are just lazy and make mistakes.

    (笑聲)

  • Some hotels exploit the opportunity to put even more memes

    其他人則太懶並弄錯了。

  • with a little sticker.

    有些旅館趁機會加入更多迷因

  • (Laughter)

    附上小貼標。

  • What is this all about?

    (笑聲)

  • I suppose it's there to tell you that somebody's

    到底是怎麼了?

  • cleaned the place, and it's all lovely.

    我想它是要告訴你:有人已經

  • And you know, actually, all it tells you is that another person

    清潔了這地方,全都好了。

  • has potentially spread germs from place to place.

    你知道,實際上它告訴你的是:另個人

  • (Laughter)

    有可能散播細菌到各處。

  • So, think of it this way.

    (笑聲)

  • Imagine a world full of brains

    因此用這方式去想它。

  • and far more memes than can possibly find homes.

    想像世界上充滿了頭腦

  • The memes are all trying to get copied --

    但有更多的迷因找不到家。

  • trying, in inverted commas -- i.e.,

    迷因都試著要被複製,

  • that's the shorthand for, if they can get copied, they will.

    試著,明白地講

  • They're using you and me as their propagating, copying machinery,

    就是:「盡其所能地被複製」。

  • and we are the meme machines.

    它們利用你我當擴散的複製機,

  • Now, why is this important?

    我們是迷因機器。

  • Why is this useful, or what does it tell us?

    為什麼這個重要?

  • It gives us a completely new view of human origins

    為什麼它有用?它告訴我們什麼?

  • and what it means to be human,

    它給我們全新觀點的人類起源

  • all conventional theories of cultural evolution,

    及它對人類的意義。

  • of the origin of humans,

    所有傳統的文化演化理論,

  • and what makes us so different from other species.

    人類起源理論,

  • All other theories explaining the big brain, and language, and tool use

    及我們異於其他物種的理論。

  • and all these things that make us unique,

    其他理論都解釋大腦、語言、及工具使用

  • are based upon genes.

    是這些事使我們獨特,

  • Language must have been useful for the genes.

    都是基於基因。

  • Tool use must have enhanced our survival, mating and so on.

    語言必須對基因有用。

  • It always comes back, as Richard Dawkins complained

    工具使用必須加強我們的存活、交配等。

  • all that long time ago, it always comes back to genes.

    它總是回到,如同理察·道金斯所埋怨

  • The point of memetics is to say, "Oh no, it doesn't."

    長時以來,它總是回到基因。

  • There are two replicators now on this planet.

    迷因論則說:「不,它不會。」

  • From the moment that our ancestors,

    現在有兩種複製體在這星球上。

  • perhaps two and a half million years ago or so,

    自從我們祖先

  • began imitating, there was a new copying process.

    大約 250 萬年前,

  • Copying with variation and selection.

    開始模仿,就有一個新的複製過程。

  • A new replicator was let loose, and it could never be --

    以變異及選擇而複製。

  • right from the start -- it could never be

    釋出了一個新複製體,它將永不會 -

  • that human beings who let loose this new creature,

    在一開始,它就永不會是

  • could just copy the useful, beautiful, true things,

    釋放了這個新生物的人類,

  • and not copy the other things.

    只複製有用的、美妙的、真實的事物,

  • While their brains were having an advantage from being able to copy --

    而不複製其他事物。

  • lighting fires, keeping fires going, new techniques of hunting,

    人類的頭腦有利於去複製 -

  • these kinds of things --

    取火、保存火、打獵新技法,

  • inevitably they were also copying putting feathers in their hair,

    這些東西 -

  • or wearing strange clothes, or painting their faces,

    難免他們也複製頭髮裝飾羽毛,

  • or whatever.

    或穿新奇衣服、畫臉、

  • So, you get an arms race between the genes

    或什麼的。

  • which are trying to get the humans to have small economical brains

    因而有了武器競賽:

  • and not waste their time copying all this stuff,

    基因試著要人類有小而經濟的頭腦

  • and the memes themselves, like the sounds that people made and copied --

    不要浪費時間複製所有東西,

  • in other words, what turned out to be language --

    而迷因自己,像人類創造及複製的聲音 -

  • competing to get the brains to get bigger and bigger.

    換言之,就是語言 -

  • So, the big brain, on this theory, is driven by the memes.

    競爭著要頭腦越來越大。

  • This is why, in "The Meme Machine," I called it memetic drive.

    因此大頭腦理論是來自迷因的。

  • As the memes evolve, as they inevitably must,

    這是為什麼在「迷因機器」裡,我叫它迷因驅動機。

  • they drive a bigger brain that is better at copying the memes

    當迷因演化時,當它們難免必須,

  • that are doing the driving.

    它們驅動較會複製迷因的較大頭腦

  • This is why we've ended up with such peculiar brains,

    去做驅動。

  • that we like religion, and music, and art.

    這是為什麼我們有這樣奇特的頭腦,

  • Language is a parasite that we've adapted to,

    我們喜歡宗教、音樂、和藝術。

  • not something that was there originally for our genes,

    語言是我們已適應的寄生物,

  • on this view.

    不是我們基因原本就有的,

  • And like most parasites, it can begin dangerous,

    這樣一個觀點。

  • but then it coevolves and adapts,

    像大部分寄生物一樣,它一開始有危險,

  • and we end up with a symbiotic relationship

    然後一起演化、調適

  • with this new parasite.

    結果我們和這寄生物

  • And so, from our perspective,

    形成共生關係。

  • we don't realize that that's how it began.

    因此從我們的觀點,

  • So, this is a view of what humans are.

    我們不知它是如何開始的。

  • All other species on this planet are gene machines only,

    這是人類是什麼的一個觀點。

  • they don't imitate at all well, hardly at all.

    地球上的其他物種只是基因機器而已,

  • We alone are gene machines and meme machines as well.

    它們不太會模仿,幾乎不會。

  • The memes took a gene machine and turned it into a meme machine.

    只有我們是基因機器,也是迷因機器。

  • But that's not all.

    迷因取用基因機器,將它變成迷因機器。

  • We have a new kind of memes now.

    但這還不是全部。

  • I've been wondering for a long time,

    我們現在有新種的迷因了。

  • since I've been thinking about memes a lot,

    我已經驚奇一段長時間了,

  • is there a difference between the memes that we copy --

    因為我一直常在思考迷因,

  • the words we speak to each other,

    迷因複製的東西有差別嗎 -

  • the gestures we copy, the human things --

    我們彼此交談的話,

  • and all these technological things around us?

    我們複製的姿勢,人為的物品 -

  • I have always, until now, called them all memes,

    以及所有我們四周的科技物品?

  • but I do honestly think now

    我一直到現在都叫它們迷因,

  • we need a new word for technological memes.

    但現在我坦誠思考

  • Let's call them techno-memes or temes.

    我們需要為科技迷因取個新詞。

  • Because the processes are getting different.

    我們來把它叫做「技術迷因」或「技因」。

  • We began, perhaps 5,000 years ago, with writing.

    因為過程已經在變。

  • We put the storage of memes out there on a clay tablet,

    我們約在五千年前開始書寫。

  • but in order to get true temes and true teme machines,

    我們將迷因典藏放在泥板上,

  • you need to get the variation, the selection and the copying,

    但為了取得真正的技因及真正的技因機器,

  • all done outside of humans.

    必須有變異、選擇、和複製,

  • And we're getting there.

    都在人類以外進行。

  • We're at this extraordinary point where we're nearly there,

    我們快有了。

  • that there are machines like that.

    我們已趨近這快有了的特殊點,

  • And indeed, in the short time I've already been at TED,

    已有類似的機器。

  • I see we're even closer than I thought we were before.

    真的,在我到 TED 的短暫時間裡,

  • So actually, now the temes are forcing our brains

    我認為,我們已比我想的還接近了。

  • to become more like teme machines.

    實際上,此時技因正強迫我們的大腦

  • Our children are growing up very quickly learning to read,

    變成更像技因機器。

  • learning to use machinery.

    我們的孩子成長中更快學會讀書,

  • We're going to have all kinds of implants,

    學會使用機器。

  • drugs that force us to stay awake all the time.

    我們將有各種植入物,

  • We'll think we're choosing these things,

    迫使我們一直清醒的藥物。

  • but the temes are making us do it.

    以為是我們自己選擇這些事物,

  • So, we're at this cusp now

    卻是技因使我們這樣的。

  • of having a third replicator on our planet.

    因此我們正在此一頂點

  • Now, what about what else is going on out there in the universe?

    正要有我們星球上的第三複製體。

  • Is there anyone else out there?

    而宇宙他處又有什麼在發生?

  • People have been asking this question for a long time.

    外太空有誰嗎?

  • We've been asking it here at TED already.

    人們問這個問題已很長久了。

  • In 1961, Frank Drake made his famous equation,

    我們在 TED 也已問過。

  • but I think he concentrated on the wrong things.

    1961 年,Frank Drake 提出有名的等式,

  • It's been very productive, that equation.

    但我覺得他聚焦到錯的事項上。

  • He wanted to estimate N,

    那個等式很有生產力。

  • the number of communicative civilizations out there in our galaxy,

    他要預估 N,

  • and he included in there the rate of star formation,

    我們星系中具溝通文明的數量。

  • the rate of planets, but crucially, intelligence.

    他包含在式子裡有星星形成率、

  • I think that's the wrong way to think about it.

    行星率,及最關鍵的智慧。

  • Intelligence appears all over the place, in all kinds of guises.

    我認為這樣思考法是錯的。

  • Human intelligence is only one kind of a thing.

    智慧到處都有,以各種變貌。

  • But what's really important is the replicators you have

    人類智慧只是其中一種。

  • and the levels of replicators, one feeding on the one before.

    但最重要的是你有的複製體

  • So, I would suggest that we don't think intelligence,

    及複製體的層級,各須依賴其前一個。

  • we think replicators.

    因此我建議,我們不考慮智慧,

  • And on that basis, I've suggested a different kind of equation.

    我們考慮複製體。

  • A very simple equation.

    基於此,我提議一個不同的等式。

  • N, the same thing,

    很單純的等式。

  • the number of communicative civilizations out there

    N 一樣,

  • [that] we might expect in our galaxy.

    具溝通的文明數量,

  • Just start with the number of planets there are in our galaxy.

    預期在我們星系中的。

  • The fraction of those which get a first replicator.

    以我們星系中的行星數開始。

  • The fraction of those that get the second replicator.

    擁有第一種複製體的分數。

  • The fraction of those that get the third replicator.

    擁有第二種複製體的分數。

  • Because it's only the third replicator that's going to reach out --

    擁有第三種複製體的分數。

  • sending information, sending probes, getting out there,

    因為只有第三種複製體會伸展出去 -

  • and communicating with anywhere else.

    送出資訊、送出探測器、對外探索,

  • OK, so if we take that equation,

    並和外界做溝通。

  • why haven't we heard from anybody out there?

    好,我們用這個等式,

  • Because every step is dangerous.

    為何我們沒聽到有誰在外界?

  • Getting a new replicator is dangerous.

    因為每一步都是危險的。

  • You can pull through, we have pulled through,

    取得新種複製體是危險的。

  • but it's dangerous.

    你能擺脫,我們擺脫了,

  • Take the first step, as soon as life appeared on this earth.

    但那是危險的。

  • We may take the Gaian view.

    第一步,生命一開始在地球出現。

  • I loved Peter Ward's talk yesterday -- it's not Gaian all the time.

    我們可以採用蓋亞的觀點。

  • Actually, life forms produce things that kill themselves.

    我喜歡昨天 Peter Ward 的演講 - 並非一直是蓋亞論。

  • Well, we did pull through on this planet.

    事實上,生命體製造殺死自己的事物。

  • But then, a long time later, billions of years later,

    嗯,我們在這星球上擺脫了。

  • we got the second replicator, the memes.

    但,過了一段長時間,幾十億年後,

  • That was dangerous, all right.

    我們得到第二種複製體:迷因。

  • Think of the big brain.

    那是危險的,沒錯。

  • How many mothers do we have here?

    想想大頭腦。

  • You know all about big brains.

    這裡有幾位媽媽?

  • They are dangerous to give birth to,

    妳們都知道大頭腦。

  • are agonizing to give birth to.

    大頭腦的生產很危險。

  • (Laughter)

    生得很折磨。

  • My cat gave birth to four kittens, purring all the time.

    (笑聲)

  • Ah, mm -- slightly different.

    我的貓生了四隻小貓,嗚個不停。

  • (Laughter)

    嗯 - 有點不同。

  • But not only is it painful, it kills lots of babies,

    (笑聲)

  • it kills lots of mothers,

    它不但痛苦,害死許多嬰兒,

  • and it's very expensive to produce.

    害死許多媽媽,

  • The genes are forced into producing all this myelin,

    它的產生也很昂貴。

  • all the fat to myelinate the brain.

    基因被迫去生產髓磷脂,

  • Do you know, sitting here,

    供應大腦的髓磷脂。

  • your brain is using about 20 percent of your body's energy output

    你知道嗎?坐在這裡,

  • for two percent of your body weight?

    你的大腦大約使用身體能量產出的百分之 20.

  • It's a really expensive organ to run.

    它只有體重的百分之二。

  • Why? Because it's producing the memes.

    這器官的運轉真的很貴。

  • Now, it could have killed us off. It could have killed us off,

    為什麼?因為它生產迷因。

  • and maybe it nearly did, but you see, we don't know.

    它可能害我們死光 - 可能害我們死光,

  • But maybe it nearly did.

    也許它差點做到了,但我們並不清楚。

  • Has it been tried before?

    也許它差點做到了。

  • What about all those other species?

    它曾試過嗎?

  • Louise Leakey talked yesterday

    其他的物種又如何?

  • about how we're the only one in this branch left.

    Louise Leakey 昨天談到

  • What happened to the others?

    我們是這一支系唯一存下的。

  • Could it be that this experiment in imitation,

    其他的怎麼了?

  • this experiment in a second replicator,

    會是因為實驗了模仿,

  • is dangerous enough to kill people off?

    實驗了第二種複製體

  • Well, we did pull through, and we adapted.

    危險到足以害死大家?

  • But now, we're hitting, as I've just described,

    我們擺脫了,我們適應了。

  • we're hitting the third replicator point.

    而現在,我們碰上了如我剛說的,

  • And this is even more dangerous --

    我們碰上了第三種複製體。

  • well, it's dangerous again.

    這個更危險 -

  • Why? Because the temes are selfish replicators

    它又是危險的。

  • and they don't care about us, or our planet, or anything else.

    為什麼?因為技因是自私的複製體

  • They're just information, why would they?

    它不在乎我們、我們的星球、或任何東西。

  • They are using us to suck up the planet's resources

    它只是資訊 - 為何它要在乎?

  • to produce more computers,

    它只利用我們去吸取地球資源

  • and more of all these amazing things we're hearing about here at TED.

    去產生更多電腦,

  • Don't think, "Oh, we created the Internet for our own benefit."

    更多驚奇事物,我們在 TED 聽到的事物。

  • That's how it seems to us.

    不要以為:「喔,我們為自己的好處創造了網路。」

  • Think, temes spreading because they must.

    那是我們認為如此。

  • We are the old machines.

    想想:技因的傳播是因為它必須如此。

  • Now, are we going to pull through?

    我們是老舊機器。

  • What's going to happen?

    現在我們能擺脫嗎?

  • What does it mean to pull through?

    會出什麼事嗎?

  • Well, there are kind of two ways of pulling through.

    擺脫了又怎樣?

  • One that is obviously happening all around us now,

    嗯,有兩種擺脫的方式。

  • is that the temes turn us into teme machines,

    一種顯然正在我們四周發生,

  • with these implants, with the drugs,

    即技因把我們變成技因機器,

  • with us merging with the technology.

    用植入物、用藥物,

  • And why would they do that?

    把我們併入科技中。

  • Because we are self-replicating.

    為什麼它要這麼做?

  • We have babies.

    因為我們自我複製。

  • We make new ones, and so it's convenient to piggyback on us,

    我們有後代。

  • because we're not yet at the stage on this planet

    我們生產新生命,因此騎著我們很方便,

  • where the other option is viable.

    因為在地球上,我們還未到達

  • Although it's closer, I heard this morning,

    其他方式可行的階段。

  • it's closer than I thought it was.

    雖然接近了,早上我聽到了,

  • Where the teme machines themselves will replicate themselves.

    比我以為的還接近了。

  • That way, it wouldn't matter if the planet's climate

    到了技因機器會複製自己。

  • was utterly destabilized,

    那時,就無所謂地球氣候

  • and it was no longer possible for humans to live here.

    是否極度不穩定,

  • Because those teme machines, they wouldn't need --

    不再可能讓人類生存於此。

  • they're not squishy, wet, oxygen-breathing,

    因為技因機器將不需要 -

  • warmth-requiring creatures.

    它們不是血肉之軀、呼吸氧氣、

  • They could carry on without us.

    需要溫暖的生物。

  • So, those are the two possibilities.

    沒有我們,它們也能生存。

  • The second, I don't think we're that close.

    因此,有這兩種可能。

  • It's coming, but we're not there yet.

    第二種,我不認為我們有那麼接近。

  • The first, it's coming too.

    它會來,但我們還未到達。

  • But the damage that is already being done

    第一種,也會來。

  • to the planet is showing us how dangerous the third point is,

    但已造成對地球的損害

  • that third danger point, getting a third replicator.

    這告訴了我們第三點有多危險,

  • And will we get through this third danger point,

    即第三危險點:取得第三種複製體。

  • like we got through the second and like we got through the first?

    我們能擺脫這第三危險點,

  • Maybe we will, maybe we won't.

    像我們擺脫第二個,像我們擺脫第一個?

  • I have no idea.

    也許我們能,也許不能。

  • (Applause)

    我也不知道。

  • Chris Anderson: That was an incredible talk.

    (掌聲)

  • SB: Thank you. I scared myself.

    演講很精彩。

  • CA: (Laughter)

    謝謝。我嚇到自己。

Cultural evolution is a dangerous child

譯者: Manlai YOU 審譯者: Chun-wen Chen

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