Bioenergy isn't global warming. Bioenergy is

什麽是生物能源？ 生物能源不是乙醇。

something which seems counterintuitive. Bioenergy

生物能源不是全球變暖。生物能源是

is oil. It's gas. It's coal. And part of building

一種看上去違反直覺的東西。生物能源

that bridge to the future, to the point where we

是石油，是煤氣，是煤碳。

can actually see the oceans in a rational way, or

我們建造通向未來的橋梁-直到我們

put up these geo-spatial orbits that will twirl or

能夠真正以理性的眼光來看待海洋或

do microwaves or stuff, is going to depend on how

建造可以旋轉或釋放微波或其他物質的地球空間軌道-

we understand bioenergy and manage it. And to do

將取決於

that, you really have to look first at agriculture.

我們怎樣理解和管理生物能源。要做到這些，

So we've been planting stuff for 11,000 years. And

你真的必須首先瞭解農業。

in the measure that we plant stuff, what we learn

我們已經從事種植業有11,000年了。

from agriculture is you've got to deal with pests,

在種植的過程中，我們從農業中學到的

you've got to deal with all types of awful things,

是你需要對付害蟲，

you've got to cultivate stuff. In the measure

你需要對付各種各樣的可怕的東西，

that you learn how to use water to cultivate, then

你需要培育作物。

you're going to be able to spread beyond the Nile.

你在種植的過程中學會怎樣用水進行灌溉，然後

You're going to be able to power stuff, so irrigation

你才能將種植業傳播到尼羅河以外的地區。

makes a difference.

你需要能夠提供動力，所以灌溉

Irrigation starts to make you be allowed to plant

使事情發生了變化。

stuff where you want it, as opposed to where the

灌溉開始使你能夠

rivers flood. You start getting this organic

在你想要種的地方種植作物，而不只是局限於

agriculture; you start putting machinery onto this

河流自然流到的地域。於是你開始了這種有機

stuff. Machinery, with a whole bunch of water,

農業， 你開始在農業中使用機械。

leads to very large-scale agriculture.

機械與大量的水一起，

You put together machines and water, and you get

導致了大規模農業的產生。

landscapes that look like this. And then you get

你將機器和水放在一起，就得到

sales that look like this. It's brute force. So

看上去是這樣子的景觀。然後你獲得

what you've been doing in agriculture is you start

看上去是這樣子的銷售。這是蠻力。所以

out with something that's a reasonably natural

你在農業領域所做的是，你從

system. You start taming that natural system. You

一個相對說來是自然的系統出發。

put a lot of force behind that natural system. You

你開始征服這一自然系統。

put a whole bunch of pesticides and herbicides --

你在這一自然系統的背後添加了大量機械動力。

(Laughter) -- behind that natural system, and you

你將大量的殺蟲劑和除草劑

end up with systems that look like this.

-（笑聲）-添加到這個自然系統的背後，你

And it's all brute force. And that's the way we've

最終得到的是看上去是這樣子的系統。

been approaching energy. So the lesson in

這些都是蠻力。這就是我們

agriculture is that you can actually change the

處理能源的方式。所以， 在農業上我們得到

system that's based on brute force as you start

的教訓就是實際上你可以改變這種

merging that system and learning that system and

基於蠻力的體系，當你開始

actually applying biology. And you move from a

將不同的元素融入這一系統，並且試圖瞭解這一系統，並且

discipline of engineering, you move from a

在其中實際運用生物學的原理。這樣，你就從

discipline of chemistry, into a discipline of

工程學的領域，你就從

biology. And probably one of the most important

化學的領域，轉向了

human beings on the planet is this guy behind me.

生物學的領域。可能地球上最重要的

This is a guy called Norman Borlaug. He won the

一個人就是我身後的這個人。

Nobel Prize. He's got the Congressional Medal of

這個人名叫Norman Borlaug .

Honor. He deserves all of this stuff. And he

他獲得了諾貝爾獎。他獲得了國會榮譽獎章。

deserves this stuff because he probably has fed

這些榮譽都是他應得的。他

more people than any other human being alive

應該得到這些榮譽是因為他可能比

because he researched how to put biology behind

任何其他活著的人都養活了更多的人。

seeds. He did this in Mexico. The reason why India

因為他從事在種子技術中運用生物學的研究。

and China no longer have these massive famines is

他是在墨西哥從事這一研究的。

because Norman Borlaug taught them how to grow

印度和中國不再有大規模饑荒的原因是

grains in a more efficient way and launched the

因為Norman Borlaug 教會了他們怎樣

Green Revolution. That is something that a lot of

更有效的種植糧食，開啟了

people have criticized. But of course, those are

綠色革命的先河。許多

people who don't realize that China and India,

人都曾經批評過這件事。但是當然， 這些批評的人都是

instead of having huge amounts of starving people,

都是沒有意識到中國和印度

are exporting grains.

不但不再有巨大數量的處於饑荒狀態的人口，

And the irony of this particular system is the

而且變成了糧食出口國的人。

place where he did the research, which was Mexico,

具有諷刺意味的是，

didn't adopt this technology, ignored this

他從事研究的地方-就是墨西哥-卻

technology, talked about why this technology

沒有採用他的技術，而是忽略這一

should be thought about, but not really applied.

技術，他們談論的是為什麽這一技術

And Mexico remains one of the largest grain

應當得到考慮卻不能真的運用。

importers on the planet because it doesn't apply

墨西哥仍然是全世界最大的糧食

technology that was discovered in Mexico. And in

進口國之一，因為它沒有運用

fact, hasn't recognized this man, to the point

在墨西哥本土發現的技術。實際上，

where there aren't statues of this man all over

墨西哥沒有認可這個人，

Mexico. There are in China and India. And the

在整個墨西哥都沒有他的塑像。

Institute that this guy ran has now moved to

在中國和印度卻有他的塑像。

India. That is the difference between adopting

這個人管理的研究機構現在搬到了印度。

technologies and discussing technologies.

這就是採用技術和討論技術的

Now, it's not just that this guy fed a huge amount

區別。

of people in the world. It's that this is the net

現在，不僅僅是關於這個人養活了

effect in terms of what technology does, if you

世界上為數眾多的人， 而是關於

understand biology.

技術可以帶來什麽樣的凈效應，如果你

What happened in agriculture? Well, if you take

瞭解生物學的話。

agriculture over a century, agriculture in about

農業領域中發生過什麽？如果你觀察

1900 would have been recognizable to somebody

一個世紀以來的農業，

planting a thousand years earlier. Yeah, the plows look

一千年前從事種植的人是可以辨認出

different. The machines were tractors or stuff

1900年左右的農業的。是的，犁看起來

instead of mules, but the farmer would have

不同。使用的機器是拖拉機等機械

understood: this is what the guy's doing, this is

而不是騾子，但是農人能夠

why he's doing it, this is where he's going. What

理解，這個人做的是什麽，

really started to change in agriculture is when

他為什麽這麼做，他會得到什麽結果。

you started moving from this brute force

農業真正開始變化的時候是

engineering and chemistry into biology, and that's

你開始從

where you get your productivity increases. And as

工程和化學的蠻力向生物學轉變時。

you do that stuff, here's what happens to

你的生產力是在這裡得到增長的。

productivity.

當你從事這種生產時，生產力的變化

Basically, you go from 250 hours to produce 100

是這樣的。

bushels, to 40, to 15, to five. Agricultural labor

基本上是這樣的，從1950 年到2000年，你生產100 蒲式耳的糧食的時間

productivity increased seven times, 1950 to 2000,

從250小時降到40小時， 再到15小時， 再到5小時。

whereas the rest of the economy increased about

生產效率提高了七倍。

2.5 times. This is an absolutely massive increase

而同期經濟平均增長率是大約

in how much is produced per person.

2.5倍。這絕對是

The effect of this, of course, is it's not just

人均產量的巨大增長。

amber waves of grain, it is mountains of stuff.

其效果是，當然，不止是

And 50 percent of the EU budget is going to subsidize

滾滾而來的糧食，而是糧食堆積成山。

agriculture from mountains of stuff that people

歐共體百分之五十的的預算將會對

have overproduced.

農業提供補貼。而歐共體的預算是從人們已經過量生產的

This would be a good outcome for energy. And of

堆積成山的糧食中來的。

course, by now, you're probably saying to

這對能源來說可以是一個好的結果。

yourself, "Self, I thought I came to a talk about

當然，聽到這裡，你可能在對你

energy and here's this guy talking about biology."

自己說，“呀，我認為我來是談能源的，

So where's the link between these two things?

這個傢伙卻在這裡談生物。”

One of the ironies of this whole system is we're

所以，這兩者之間的聯繫是什麽呢？

discussing what to do about a system that we don't

這整個體系的自相矛盾之處是

understand. We don't even know what oil is. We

我們在討論對如何操作一個我們

don't know where oil comes from. I mean,

不瞭解的體系。我們甚至都不知道石油是什麽。

literally, it's still a source of debate what

我們也不知道石油是從哪裡來的。我的意思是，

this black river of stuff is and where it comes

準確的說，石油是什麽和石油是從哪裡來的

from. The best assumption, and one of the best

還是引起爭論的問題。

guesses in this stuff, is that this stuff comes

在這個問題上最好的假設，最好的猜測之一是

out of this stuff, that these things absorb

石油是從

sunlight, rot under pressure for millions of

這些東西來的。這些東西吸收

years, and you get these black rivers.

陽光，在數百年的壓力下腐爛，

Now, the interesting thing about that thesis -- if

你得到的就是這些黑色的河流。

that thesis turns out to be true -- is that oil,

現在，關於這些理論的有趣的事是

and all hydrocarbons, turned out to be

-如果這個理論是正確的-石油，

concentrated sunlight. And if you think of

和所有的烴，看來是

bioenergy, bioenergy isn't ethanol. Bioenergy is

積聚的陽光。如果你想到

taking the sun, concentrating it in amoebas,

生物能源，生物能源不是乙醇。生物能源是

concentrating it in plants, and maybe that's why

吸收光能，將其集中在變形蟲身上，

you get these rainbows.

集中在植物上，可能那就是

And as you're looking at this system, if

你得到這些彩虹的原因。

hydrocarbons are concentrated sunlight, then

當你觀察這個系統的時候，

bioenergy works in a different way. And we've got

如果烴是聚集的陽光，那麽

to start thinking of oil and other hydrocarbons as

生物能源是以不同的方式產生的。我們已經

part of these solar panels.

開始將石油和其他的烴想成

Maybe that's one of the reasons why if you fly

這些太陽能電池板的一部份。

over west Texas, the types of wells that you're

可能那就是原因

beginning to see don't look unlike those pictures

如果你飛過德克薩斯西部，你將會開始見到的這種井

of Kansas and those irrigated plots.

不是和堪薩斯的這些照片

This is how you farm oil. And as you think of

和這些灌溉田地沒有相似之處的

farming oil and how oil has evolved, we started

這就是你怎樣在油田採油。當你想到

with this brute force approach. And then what did

採油和石油是怎樣演變的，我們開始

we learn? Then we learned we had to go bigger. And

這種採用蠻力的方法。那麽我們學到了

then what'd we learn? Then we have to go even

什麽？那麽我們學到了我們不得不擴大規模。

bigger. And we are getting really destructive as

然後我們學到什麽？然後我們不得不再

we're going out and farming this bioenergy.

擴大規模。這樣我們在走出去開採生物能源時，

These are the Athabasca tar sands, and there's an

我們真的變得有毀滅性了。

enormous amount -- first of mining, the largest

這些是阿薩巴斯卡油砂， 數量

trucks in the world are working here, and then

巨大-首先是開採，

you've got to pull out this black sludge, which is

世界上最大的卡車在這裡工作， 然後

basically oil that doesn't flow. It's tied to the

你需要弄出這些黑色的污泥，

sand. And then you've got to use a lot of steam to

這些污泥實際上是不會流動的石油。石油是與

separate it, which only works at today's oil

沙混在一起的。然後你需要用大量的蒸汽

prices.

來分離它， 這種方式僅僅是在今天的油價下

Coal. Coal turns out to be virtually the same

才能實現的。

stuff. It is probably plants, except that these

煤。煤基本上是同樣的

have been burned and crushed under pressure.

東西。它可能是植物，不同的是它是來自那些

So you take something like this, you burn it, you

被燃燒並在壓力下粉碎的植物。

put it under pressure, and likely as not, you get

所以你拿一些這樣的東西，將它點燃，再

this. Although, again, I stress: we don't know.

將它置於壓力下，很有可能，你會得到

Which is curious as we debate all this stuff. But

這個。但是，再一次強調：我們不知道。

as you think of coal, this is what burned wheat

這一事實是我們在辯論所有這些時應該感到奇怪的。

kernels look like. Not entirely unlike coal.

但當你想到煤時,這是燒焦的麥核的樣子，

And of course, coalmines are very dangerous

看上去不是完全不像煤。

places because in some of these coalmines, you

當然，煤礦是非常危險的

get gas. When that gas blows up, people die. So

地方，因為在有些煤礦中

you're producing a biogas out of coal in some

有氣體。當這種氣體爆炸時，會死人。所以

mines, but not in others.

在有些煤礦中， 你能從煤里生產沼氣，

Any place you see a differential, there're some

但是另一些煤礦卻不能。

interesting questions. There's some questions as

在你看到差異的任何地方， 都會有一些

to what you should be doing with this stuff. But

有趣的問題。有些問題是關於

again, coal. Maybe the same stuff, maybe the same

你應當用這種東西來做什麽的。但是

system, maybe bioenergy, and you're applying

再一次說， 煤。 可能是同樣的東西，可能是同樣的系統，

exactly the same technology.

可能是生物能源，你在運用

Here's your brute force approach. Once you get

完全相同的技術。

through your brute force approach, then you just

這就是你的使用蠻力方法。一旦你運用

rip off whole mountaintops. And you end up with

了使用蠻力的方式，

the single largest source of carbon emissions,

整座山頂就會被夷平。你最終就

which are coal-fired gas plants. That is probably

得到了最大的碳排放來源，

not the best use of bioenergy.

即燃煤天然氣發電廠。那可能

As you think of what are the alternatives to this

不是對生物能源的最好的利用。

system -- it's important to find alternatives

當你在思考這一體系的替代方法時

because it turns out that the U.S. is dwindling in

-找到替代方法是重要的，

its petroleum reserves, but it is not dwindling in

因為實際上美國的石油儲備

its coal reserves, nor is China. There are huge

在萎縮，但是煤炭儲備沒有萎縮，

coal reserves that are sitting out there, and

中國的煤炭儲備也沒有萎縮。

we've got to start thinking of them as biological

煤炭的儲備糧巨大，

energy, because if we keep treating them as

我們需要開始將它們設想成生物

chemical energy, or engineering energy, we're

能源，因為如果我們繼續將它們當成

going to be in deep doo-doo.

化學能源，或工程能源，我們

Gas is a similar issue. Gas is also a biological

將不知道會有什麽大麻煩。

product. And as you think of gas, well, you're

天然氣是一個相似的問題。天然氣也是生物

familiar with gas. And here's a different way of

產品。但你想到天然氣時，你認為

mining coal.

你很熟悉天然氣。這是一種

This is called coal bed methane. Why is this

採煤的不同的方法。

picture interesting? Because if coal turns out to

這叫做煤床甲烷。為什麼這張

be concentrated plant life, the reason why you may

照片有趣呢？因為煤是

get a differential in gas output between one mine

濃縮的植物，你可以

and another -- the reason why one mine may blow up

在不同的煤礦得到不同的天然氣輸出量的原因-

and another one may not blow up -- may be because

-一個煤礦可能爆炸

there's stuff eating that stuff and producing gas.

另一個煤礦可能不會爆炸的原因-可能是因為

This is a well-known phenomenon. (Laughter) You

這個東西吃掉那個東西並產生氣體。

eat certain things, you produce a lot of gas. It

這是一個眾所周知的現象。（笑聲）你

may turn out that biological processes in coalmines

吃某些東西，你會生產大量的氣體。

have the same process. If that is true, then

可能煤礦裡的生物過程

one of the ways of getting the energy out of coal

也是一樣的。如果這是真的，那麼

may not be to rip whole mountaintops off, and it

從煤炭裡得到能源的方法之一

may not be to burn coal. It may be to have stuff

可能不是把整個山頂鏟掉，

process that coal in a biological fashion as you

可能不是燃燒煤炭。而可能是用

did in agriculture.

生物方法處理煤，如同

That is what bioenergy is. It is not ethanol. It

在農業上採用的方法一樣。

is not subsidies to a few companies. It is not

這就是生物能源。生物能源不是乙醇。

importing corn into Iowa because you've built so

不是對一些公司提供補貼。不是

many of these ethanol plants. It is beginning to

因為建造了這麼多的乙醇工廠，

understand the transition that occurred in

就進口玉米到愛荷華州。而是開始

agriculture, from brute force into biological

瞭解農業中產生的

force. And in the measure that you can do that,

從蠻力到生物力量的變遷。

you can clean some stuff, and you can clean it

在那些可以採用的方法中，

pretty quickly.

你可以清潔一些東西，你可以很快的

We already have some indicators of productivity on

清潔它。

this stuff. OK, if you put steam into coal fields

我們在這方面已經有一些提高生產效率的徵兆。

or petroleum fields that have been running for

如果你將蒸汽加入已經流動幾了十年的

decades, you can get a really substantial

煤田或油田，

increase, like an eight-fold increase, in your

你可以得到巨大的，

output. This is just the beginning stages of this

大約八倍的輸出增長。

stuff.

這還只是這種技術的

And as you think of biomaterials, this guy -- who

初期。

did part of the sequencing of the human genome,

當你想到生物材料，這個人-

who just doubled the databases of genes and

-他參加了人類基因組排序的工作，

proteins known on earth by sailing around the

剛剛通過環遊世界的方式讓已知的基因和蛋白質庫

world -- has been thinking about how you structure

數據翻倍。

this. And there's a series of smart people

-也在考慮怎樣構建這個體系。

thinking about this. And they've been putting

許多聰明人都

together companies like Synthetic Genomics, like,

在考慮它。 他們設立了

a Cambria, like Codon, and what those companies are