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  • What is bioenergy? Bioenergy is not ethanol.

    譯者: mei zeng 審譯者: Joan Liu

  • Bioenergy isn't global warming. Bioenergy is

    什麽是生物能源? 生物能源不是乙醇。

  • something which seems counterintuitive. Bioenergy

    生物能源不是全球變暖。生物能源是

  • is oil. It's gas. It's coal. And part of building

    一種看上去違反直覺的東西。生物能源

  • that bridge to the future, to the point where we

    是石油,是煤氣,是煤碳。

  • can actually see the oceans in a rational way, or

    我們建造通向未來的橋梁-直到我們

  • put up these geo-spatial orbits that will twirl or

    能夠真正以理性的眼光來看待海洋或

  • do microwaves or stuff, is going to depend on how

    建造可以旋轉或釋放微波或其他物質的地球空間軌道-

  • we understand bioenergy and manage it. And to do

    將取決於

  • that, you really have to look first at agriculture.

    我們怎樣理解和管理生物能源。要做到這些,

  • So we've been planting stuff for 11,000 years. And

    你真的必須首先瞭解農業。

  • in the measure that we plant stuff, what we learn

    我們已經從事種植業有11,000年了。

  • from agriculture is you've got to deal with pests,

    在種植的過程中,我們從農業中學到的

  • you've got to deal with all types of awful things,

    是你需要對付害蟲,

  • you've got to cultivate stuff. In the measure

    你需要對付各種各樣的可怕的東西,

  • that you learn how to use water to cultivate, then

    你需要培育作物。

  • you're going to be able to spread beyond the Nile.

    你在種植的過程中學會怎樣用水進行灌溉,然後

  • You're going to be able to power stuff, so irrigation

    你才能將種植業傳播到尼羅河以外的地區。

  • makes a difference.

    你需要能夠提供動力,所以灌溉

  • Irrigation starts to make you be allowed to plant

    使事情發生了變化。

  • stuff where you want it, as opposed to where the

    灌溉開始使你能夠

  • rivers flood. You start getting this organic

    在你想要種的地方種植作物,而不只是局限於

  • agriculture; you start putting machinery onto this

    河流自然流到的地域。於是你開始了這種有機

  • stuff. Machinery, with a whole bunch of water,

    農業, 你開始在農業中使用機械。

  • leads to very large-scale agriculture.

    機械與大量的水一起,

  • You put together machines and water, and you get

    導致了大規模農業的產生。

  • landscapes that look like this. And then you get

    你將機器和水放在一起,就得到

  • sales that look like this. It's brute force. So

    看上去是這樣子的景觀。然後你獲得

  • what you've been doing in agriculture is you start

    看上去是這樣子的銷售。這是蠻力。所以

  • out with something that's a reasonably natural

    你在農業領域所做的是,你從

  • system. You start taming that natural system. You

    一個相對說來是自然的系統出發。

  • put a lot of force behind that natural system. You

    你開始征服這一自然系統。

  • put a whole bunch of pesticides and herbicides --

    你在這一自然系統的背後添加了大量機械動力。

  • (Laughter) -- behind that natural system, and you

    你將大量的殺蟲劑和除草劑

  • end up with systems that look like this.

    -(笑聲)-添加到這個自然系統的背後,你

  • And it's all brute force. And that's the way we've

    最終得到的是看上去是這樣子的系統。

  • been approaching energy. So the lesson in

    這些都是蠻力。這就是我們

  • agriculture is that you can actually change the

    處理能源的方式。所以, 在農業上我們得到

  • system that's based on brute force as you start

    的教訓就是實際上你可以改變這種

  • merging that system and learning that system and

    基於蠻力的體系,當你開始

  • actually applying biology. And you move from a

    將不同的元素融入這一系統,並且試圖瞭解這一系統,並且

  • discipline of engineering, you move from a

    在其中實際運用生物學的原理。這樣,你就從

  • discipline of chemistry, into a discipline of

    工程學的領域,你就從

  • biology. And probably one of the most important

    化學的領域,轉向了

  • human beings on the planet is this guy behind me.

    生物學的領域。可能地球上最重要的

  • This is a guy called Norman Borlaug. He won the

    一個人就是我身後的這個人。

  • Nobel Prize. He's got the Congressional Medal of

    這個人名叫Norman Borlaug .

  • Honor. He deserves all of this stuff. And he

    他獲得了諾貝爾獎。他獲得了國會榮譽獎章。

  • deserves this stuff because he probably has fed

    這些榮譽都是他應得的。他

  • more people than any other human being alive

    應該得到這些榮譽是因為他可能比

  • because he researched how to put biology behind

    任何其他活著的人都養活了更多的人。

  • seeds. He did this in Mexico. The reason why India

    因為他從事在種子技術中運用生物學的研究。

  • and China no longer have these massive famines is

    他是在墨西哥從事這一研究的。

  • because Norman Borlaug taught them how to grow

    印度和中國不再有大規模饑荒的原因是

  • grains in a more efficient way and launched the

    因為Norman Borlaug 教會了他們怎樣

  • Green Revolution. That is something that a lot of

    更有效的種植糧食,開啟了

  • people have criticized. But of course, those are

    綠色革命的先河。許多

  • people who don't realize that China and India,

    人都曾經批評過這件事。但是當然, 這些批評的人都是

  • instead of having huge amounts of starving people,

    都是沒有意識到中國和印度

  • are exporting grains.

    不但不再有巨大數量的處於饑荒狀態的人口,

  • And the irony of this particular system is the

    而且變成了糧食出口國的人。

  • place where he did the research, which was Mexico,

    具有諷刺意味的是,

  • didn't adopt this technology, ignored this

    他從事研究的地方-就是墨西哥-卻

  • technology, talked about why this technology

    沒有採用他的技術,而是忽略這一

  • should be thought about, but not really applied.

    技術,他們談論的是為什麽這一技術

  • And Mexico remains one of the largest grain

    應當得到考慮卻不能真的運用。

  • importers on the planet because it doesn't apply

    墨西哥仍然是全世界最大的糧食

  • technology that was discovered in Mexico. And in

    進口國之一,因為它沒有運用

  • fact, hasn't recognized this man, to the point

    在墨西哥本土發現的技術。實際上,

  • where there aren't statues of this man all over

    墨西哥沒有認可這個人,

  • Mexico. There are in China and India. And the

    在整個墨西哥都沒有他的塑像。

  • Institute that this guy ran has now moved to

    在中國和印度卻有他的塑像。

  • India. That is the difference between adopting

    這個人管理的研究機構現在搬到了印度。

  • technologies and discussing technologies.

    這就是採用技術和討論技術的

  • Now, it's not just that this guy fed a huge amount

    區別。

  • of people in the world. It's that this is the net

    現在,不僅僅是關於這個人養活了

  • effect in terms of what technology does, if you

    世界上為數眾多的人, 而是關於

  • understand biology.

    技術可以帶來什麽樣的凈效應,如果你

  • What happened in agriculture? Well, if you take

    瞭解生物學的話。

  • agriculture over a century, agriculture in about

    農業領域中發生過什麽?如果你觀察

  • 1900 would have been recognizable to somebody

    一個世紀以來的農業,

  • planting a thousand years earlier. Yeah, the plows look

    一千年前從事種植的人是可以辨認出

  • different. The machines were tractors or stuff

    1900年左右的農業的。是的,犁看起來

  • instead of mules, but the farmer would have

    不同。使用的機器是拖拉機等機械

  • understood: this is what the guy's doing, this is

    而不是騾子,但是農人能夠

  • why he's doing it, this is where he's going. What

    理解,這個人做的是什麽,

  • really started to change in agriculture is when

    他為什麽這麼做,他會得到什麽結果。

  • you started moving from this brute force

    農業真正開始變化的時候是

  • engineering and chemistry into biology, and that's

    你開始從

  • where you get your productivity increases. And as

    工程和化學的蠻力向生物學轉變時。

  • you do that stuff, here's what happens to

    你的生產力是在這裡得到增長的。

  • productivity.

    當你從事這種生產時,生產力的變化

  • Basically, you go from 250 hours to produce 100

    是這樣的。

  • bushels, to 40, to 15, to five. Agricultural labor

    基本上是這樣的,從1950 年到2000年,你生產100 蒲式耳的糧食的時間

  • productivity increased seven times, 1950 to 2000,

    從250小時降到40小時, 再到15小時, 再到5小時。

  • whereas the rest of the economy increased about

    生產效率提高了七倍。

  • 2.5 times. This is an absolutely massive increase

    而同期經濟平均增長率是大約

  • in how much is produced per person.

    2.5倍。這絕對是

  • The effect of this, of course, is it's not just

    人均產量的巨大增長。

  • amber waves of grain, it is mountains of stuff.

    其效果是,當然,不止是

  • And 50 percent of the EU budget is going to subsidize

    滾滾而來的糧食,而是糧食堆積成山。

  • agriculture from mountains of stuff that people

    歐共體百分之五十的的預算將會對

  • have overproduced.

    農業提供補貼。而歐共體的預算是從人們已經過量生產的

  • This would be a good outcome for energy. And of

    堆積成山的糧食中來的。

  • course, by now, you're probably saying to

    這對能源來說可以是一個好的結果。

  • yourself, "Self, I thought I came to a talk about

    當然,聽到這裡,你可能在對你

  • energy and here's this guy talking about biology."

    自己說,“呀,我認為我來是談能源的,

  • So where's the link between these two things?

    這個傢伙卻在這裡談生物。”

  • One of the ironies of this whole system is we're

    所以,這兩者之間的聯繫是什麽呢?

  • discussing what to do about a system that we don't

    這整個體系的自相矛盾之處是

  • understand. We don't even know what oil is. We

    我們在討論對如何操作一個我們

  • don't know where oil comes from. I mean,

    不瞭解的體系。我們甚至都不知道石油是什麽。

  • literally, it's still a source of debate what

    我們也不知道石油是從哪裡來的。我的意思是,

  • this black river of stuff is and where it comes

    準確的說,石油是什麽和石油是從哪裡來的

  • from. The best assumption, and one of the best

    還是引起爭論的問題。

  • guesses in this stuff, is that this stuff comes

    在這個問題上最好的假設,最好的猜測之一是

  • out of this stuff, that these things absorb

    石油是從

  • sunlight, rot under pressure for millions of

    這些東西來的。這些東西吸收

  • years, and you get these black rivers.

    陽光,在數百年的壓力下腐爛,

  • Now, the interesting thing about that thesis -- if

    你得到的就是這些黑色的河流。

  • that thesis turns out to be true -- is that oil,

    現在,關於這些理論的有趣的事是

  • and all hydrocarbons, turned out to be

    -如果這個理論是正確的-石油,

  • concentrated sunlight. And if you think of

    和所有的烴,看來是

  • bioenergy, bioenergy isn't ethanol. Bioenergy is

    積聚的陽光。如果你想到

  • taking the sun, concentrating it in amoebas,

    生物能源,生物能源不是乙醇。生物能源是

  • concentrating it in plants, and maybe that's why

    吸收光能,將其集中在變形蟲身上,

  • you get these rainbows.

    集中在植物上,可能那就是

  • And as you're looking at this system, if

    你得到這些彩虹的原因。

  • hydrocarbons are concentrated sunlight, then

    當你觀察這個系統的時候,

  • bioenergy works in a different way. And we've got

    如果烴是聚集的陽光,那麽

  • to start thinking of oil and other hydrocarbons as

    生物能源是以不同的方式產生的。我們已經

  • part of these solar panels.

    開始將石油和其他的烴想成

  • Maybe that's one of the reasons why if you fly

    這些太陽能電池板的一部份。

  • over west Texas, the types of wells that you're

    可能那就是原因

  • beginning to see don't look unlike those pictures

    如果你飛過德克薩斯西部,你將會開始見到的這種井

  • of Kansas and those irrigated plots.

    不是和堪薩斯的這些照片

  • This is how you farm oil. And as you think of

    和這些灌溉田地沒有相似之處的

  • farming oil and how oil has evolved, we started

    這就是你怎樣在油田採油。當你想到

  • with this brute force approach. And then what did

    採油和石油是怎樣演變的,我們開始

  • we learn? Then we learned we had to go bigger. And

    這種採用蠻力的方法。那麽我們學到了

  • then what'd we learn? Then we have to go even

    什麽?那麽我們學到了我們不得不擴大規模。

  • bigger. And we are getting really destructive as

    然後我們學到什麽?然後我們不得不再

  • we're going out and farming this bioenergy.

    擴大規模。這樣我們在走出去開採生物能源時,

  • These are the Athabasca tar sands, and there's an

    我們真的變得有毀滅性了。

  • enormous amount -- first of mining, the largest

    這些是阿薩巴斯卡油砂, 數量

  • trucks in the world are working here, and then

    巨大-首先是開採,

  • you've got to pull out this black sludge, which is

    世界上最大的卡車在這裡工作, 然後

  • basically oil that doesn't flow. It's tied to the

    你需要弄出這些黑色的污泥,

  • sand. And then you've got to use a lot of steam to

    這些污泥實際上是不會流動的石油。石油是與

  • separate it, which only works at today's oil

    沙混在一起的。然後你需要用大量的蒸汽

  • prices.

    來分離它, 這種方式僅僅是在今天的油價下

  • Coal. Coal turns out to be virtually the same

    才能實現的。

  • stuff. It is probably plants, except that these

    煤。煤基本上是同樣的

  • have been burned and crushed under pressure.

    東西。它可能是植物,不同的是它是來自那些

  • So you take something like this, you burn it, you

    被燃燒並在壓力下粉碎的植物。

  • put it under pressure, and likely as not, you get

    所以你拿一些這樣的東西,將它點燃,再

  • this. Although, again, I stress: we don't know.

    將它置於壓力下,很有可能,你會得到

  • Which is curious as we debate all this stuff. But

    這個。但是,再一次強調:我們不知道。

  • as you think of coal, this is what burned wheat

    這一事實是我們在辯論所有這些時應該感到奇怪的。

  • kernels look like. Not entirely unlike coal.

    但當你想到煤時,這是燒焦的麥核的樣子,

  • And of course, coalmines are very dangerous

    看上去不是完全不像煤。

  • places because in some of these coalmines, you

    當然,煤礦是非常危險的

  • get gas. When that gas blows up, people die. So

    地方,因為在有些煤礦中

  • you're producing a biogas out of coal in some

    有氣體。當這種氣體爆炸時,會死人。所以

  • mines, but not in others.

    在有些煤礦中, 你能從煤里生產沼氣,

  • Any place you see a differential, there're some

    但是另一些煤礦卻不能。

  • interesting questions. There's some questions as

    在你看到差異的任何地方, 都會有一些

  • to what you should be doing with this stuff. But

    有趣的問題。有些問題是關於

  • again, coal. Maybe the same stuff, maybe the same

    你應當用這種東西來做什麽的。但是

  • system, maybe bioenergy, and you're applying

    再一次說, 煤。 可能是同樣的東西,可能是同樣的系統,

  • exactly the same technology.

    可能是生物能源,你在運用

  • Here's your brute force approach. Once you get

    完全相同的技術。

  • through your brute force approach, then you just

    這就是你的使用蠻力方法。一旦你運用

  • rip off whole mountaintops. And you end up with

    了使用蠻力的方式,

  • the single largest source of carbon emissions,

    整座山頂就會被夷平。你最終就

  • which are coal-fired gas plants. That is probably

    得到了最大的碳排放來源,

  • not the best use of bioenergy.

    即燃煤天然氣發電廠。那可能

  • As you think of what are the alternatives to this

    不是對生物能源的最好的利用。

  • system -- it's important to find alternatives

    當你在思考這一體系的替代方法時

  • because it turns out that the U.S. is dwindling in

    -找到替代方法是重要的,

  • its petroleum reserves, but it is not dwindling in

    因為實際上美國的石油儲備

  • its coal reserves, nor is China. There are huge

    在萎縮,但是煤炭儲備沒有萎縮,

  • coal reserves that are sitting out there, and

    中國的煤炭儲備也沒有萎縮。

  • we've got to start thinking of them as biological

    煤炭的儲備糧巨大,

  • energy, because if we keep treating them as

    我們需要開始將它們設想成生物

  • chemical energy, or engineering energy, we're

    能源,因為如果我們繼續將它們當成

  • going to be in deep doo-doo.

    化學能源,或工程能源,我們

  • Gas is a similar issue. Gas is also a biological

    將不知道會有什麽大麻煩。

  • product. And as you think of gas, well, you're

    天然氣是一個相似的問題。天然氣也是生物

  • familiar with gas. And here's a different way of

    產品。但你想到天然氣時,你認為

  • mining coal.

    你很熟悉天然氣。這是一種

  • This is called coal bed methane. Why is this

    採煤的不同的方法。

  • picture interesting? Because if coal turns out to

    這叫做煤床甲烷。為什麼這張

  • be concentrated plant life, the reason why you may

    照片有趣呢?因為煤是

  • get a differential in gas output between one mine

    濃縮的植物,你可以

  • and another -- the reason why one mine may blow up

    在不同的煤礦得到不同的天然氣輸出量的原因-

  • and another one may not blow up -- may be because

    -一個煤礦可能爆炸

  • there's stuff eating that stuff and producing gas.

    另一個煤礦可能不會爆炸的原因-可能是因為

  • This is a well-known phenomenon. (Laughter) You

    這個東西吃掉那個東西並產生氣體。

  • eat certain things, you produce a lot of gas. It

    這是一個眾所周知的現象。(笑聲)你

  • may turn out that biological processes in coalmines

    吃某些東西,你會生產大量的氣體。

  • have the same process. If that is true, then

    可能煤礦裡的生物過程

  • one of the ways of getting the energy out of coal

    也是一樣的。如果這是真的,那麼

  • may not be to rip whole mountaintops off, and it

    從煤炭裡得到能源的方法之一

  • may not be to burn coal. It may be to have stuff

    可能不是把整個山頂鏟掉,

  • process that coal in a biological fashion as you

    可能不是燃燒煤炭。而可能是用

  • did in agriculture.

    生物方法處理煤,如同

  • That is what bioenergy is. It is not ethanol. It

    在農業上採用的方法一樣。

  • is not subsidies to a few companies. It is not

    這就是生物能源。生物能源不是乙醇。

  • importing corn into Iowa because you've built so

    不是對一些公司提供補貼。不是

  • many of these ethanol plants. It is beginning to

    因為建造了這麼多的乙醇工廠,

  • understand the transition that occurred in

    就進口玉米到愛荷華州。而是開始

  • agriculture, from brute force into biological

    瞭解農業中產生的

  • force. And in the measure that you can do that,

    從蠻力到生物力量的變遷。

  • you can clean some stuff, and you can clean it

    在那些可以採用的方法中,

  • pretty quickly.

    你可以清潔一些東西,你可以很快的

  • We already have some indicators of productivity on

    清潔它。

  • this stuff. OK, if you put steam into coal fields

    我們在這方面已經有一些提高生產效率的徵兆。

  • or petroleum fields that have been running for

    如果你將蒸汽加入已經流動幾了十年的

  • decades, you can get a really substantial

    煤田或油田,

  • increase, like an eight-fold increase, in your

    你可以得到巨大的,

  • output. This is just the beginning stages of this

    大約八倍的輸出增長。

  • stuff.

    這還只是這種技術的

  • And as you think of biomaterials, this guy -- who

    初期。

  • did part of the sequencing of the human genome,

    當你想到生物材料,這個人-

  • who just doubled the databases of genes and

    -他參加了人類基因組排序的工作,

  • proteins known on earth by sailing around the

    剛剛通過環遊世界的方式讓已知的基因和蛋白質庫

  • world -- has been thinking about how you structure

    數據翻倍。

  • this. And there's a series of smart people

    -也在考慮怎樣構建這個體系。

  • thinking about this. And they've been putting

    許多聰明人都

  • together companies like Synthetic Genomics, like,

    在考慮它。 他們設立了

  • a Cambria, like Codon, and what those companies are

    Synthetic GenoMICS, CAMBRIA,CONDON

  • trying to do is to think of, how do you apply

    這樣的公司,這些公司

  • biological principles to avoid brute force?

    試圖做的是考慮怎樣運用

  • Think of it in the following terms. Think of it as

    生物學原理來避免蠻力?

  • beginning to program stuff for specific purposes.

    用下面的方式來思考。將它看做

  • Think of the cell as a hardware. Think of the

    開始進行特殊目的編程。

  • genes as a software. And in the measure that you

    將細胞看成硬件。將

  • begin to think of life as code that is

    基因看成軟件。當你

  • interchangeable, that can become energy, that can

    開始將生命看成

  • become food, that can become fiber, that can

    可以互換的代碼,它可以變成能源,可以

  • become human beings, that can become a whole

    變成食物,可以變成纖維,可以