And I specialize in human behavioral research,

我住在日本東京，也在那裡工作，

and applying what we learn to think about the future in different ways,

我專門研究人類的行為，

and to design for that future.

然後將研究結果應用在思考未來，

And you know, to be honest, I've been doing this for seven years,

設計出適合未來的產品。

and I haven't got a clue what the future is going to be like.

老實說，我做這一行已經七年了，

But I've got a pretty good idea

但我還是不知道未來會變成什麼樣子，

how people will behave when they get there.

我只知道

This is my office. It's out there.

未來人類的行為會如何改變。

It's not in the lab,

這是我的辦公室，不是在室內，

and it's increasingly in places like India, China, Brazil, Africa.

也不是在實驗室，

We live on a planet -- 6.3 billion people.

而是在印度、中國、巴西及非洲的各個地方。

About three billion people, by the end of this year,

地球上有63億人口，

will have cellular connectivity.

在今年底，大約會有三十億人

And it'll take about another two years to connect the next billion after that.

擁有手機，

And I mention this because,

大約再過二年，另外十億人也會擁有手機。

if we want to design for that future,

我提到這件事是因為

we need to figure out what those people are about.

如果我們想要設計出適合未來的產品，

And that's, kind of, where I see what my job is

就得先瞭解這些人的生活型態，

and what our team's job is.

這可以說是我的工作內容，

Our research often starts with a very simple question.

也是我的團隊的工作內容。

So I'll give you an example. What do you carry?

我們的研究通常會以一個問題做為開場白，

If you think of everything in your life that you own,

例如：你把什麼帶在身上？

when you walk out that door,

看看你生活週遭你所擁有的東西，

what do you consider to take with you?

當你要出門的時候，

When you're looking around, what do you consider?

你會考慮帶什麼在身上？

Of that stuff, what do you carry?

你看看四週，你會考慮帶什麼？

And of that stuff, what do you actually use?

在你考慮的項目裡，你真正帶了什麼出去？

So this is interesting to us,

在你帶出門的東西裡，你真正用的又是什麼？

because the conscious and subconscious decision process

對我們來說，這是很有趣的問題，

implies that the stuff that you do take with you and end up using

因為這種有意識和潛意識的決策過程，

has some kind of spiritual, emotional or functional value.

會顯示出你帶出去、真正會用到的東西，

And to put it really bluntly, you know,

其實具有某種程度的精神象徵、情緒連結和功能價值。

people are willing to pay for stuff that has value, right?

說得白話一點，

So I've probably done about five years' research

人類願意花錢買有價值的東西，不是嗎？

looking at what people carry.

所以，我大約花了五年的時間，

I go in people's bags. I look in people's pockets, purses.

研究人們到底帶什麼在身上。

I go in their homes. And we do this worldwide,

我鑽進別人的袋子裡，看看他們的皮夾、皮包，

and we follow them around town with video cameras.

或是去他們家裡，我們在世界各地進行研究，

It's kind of like stalking with permission.

我們還用攝影機記錄研究對象在城裡活動的情形，

And we do all this -- and to go back to the original question,

就像事先取得對方同意所進行的跟蹤行動。

what do people carry?

我們做的這一切，都是希望找到這個問題的答案：

And it turns out that people carry a lot of stuff.

人們帶什麼在身上？

OK, that's fair enough.

我們發現，其實大家會帶很多東西，

But if you ask people what the three most important things that they carry are --

當然，這很合理，

across cultures and across gender and across contexts --

但如果你問這些人，在這些東西裡，最重要的三個是什麼？

most people will say keys, money

不管是什麼文化背景、性別或教育程度，

and, if they own one, a mobile phone.

大部分的人會回答：鑰匙、錢，

And I'm not saying this is a good thing, but this is a thing, right?

和手機，如果他們有手機的話。

I mean, I couldn't take your phones off you if I wanted to.

我不是說手機是個好東西，但它確實是一個東西，對吧？

You'd probably kick me out, or something.

我是說，我可不能隨便就把別人的手機扒下來,

OK, it might seem like an obvious thing

你一定會踹我一腳，或打我什麼的。

for someone who works for a mobile phone company to ask.

我知道，這很明顯就是在手機公司

But really, the question is, why? Right?

工作的人會問的問題嘛...

So why are these things so important in our lives?

但是，我真的想問為什麼會這樣？對不對？

And it turns out, from our research, that it boils down to survival --

為什麼這三樣東西對我們這麼重要？

survival for us and survival for our loved ones.

我們發現，這竟然和生存有關係--

So, keys provide an access to shelter and warmth --

關係到我們的生存，和我們所愛的人的生存。

transport as well, in the U.S. increasingly.

鑰匙可以讓我們回到溫暖的家，

Money is useful for buying food, sustenance,

或是讓我們開車，這在美國較為普遍。

among all its other uses.

錢可以讓我們買食物、營養品等，

And a mobile phone, it turns out, is a great recovery tool.

還有其他很好用的用途。

If you prefer this kind of Maslow's hierarchy of needs,

我們發現，手機則是一個很棒的工具。

those three objects are very good at supporting

如果你偏愛馬斯洛的需求理論，

the lowest rungs in Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

這三樣東西則是最能滿足

Yes, they do a whole bunch of other stuff,

馬斯洛需求理論中的最下層需求。

but they're very good at this.

沒錯，他們當然還有許多其他用途，

And in particular, it's the mobile phone's ability

但是這三樣東西最能滿足這些需求，

to allow people to transcend space and time.

尤其是手機，它可以讓人

And what I mean by that is, you know,

穿越空間與時間。

you can transcend space by simply making a voice call, right?

我的意思是，

And you can transcend time by sending a message at your convenience,

只要打通電話就可以穿越空間了，不是嗎？

and someone else can pick it up at their convenience.

而只要有空的時候發個簡訊，對方有空的時候再讀簡訊，

And this is fairly universally appreciated, it turns out,

這不就穿越時間了嗎？

which is why we have three billion plus people who have been connected.

我們發現全世界的人都很愛這些功能，

And they value that connectivity.

所以才會有超過三十億人擁有手機，

But actually, you can do this kind of stuff with PCs.

他們重視這種情感的聯繫。

And you can do them with phone kiosks.

但說真的，電腦也有這些功能，

And the mobile phone, in addition, is both personal --

公共電話也可以提供通話服務，

and so it also gives you a degree of privacy -- and it's convenient.

但是，手機卻與個人息息相關，

You don't need to ask permission from anyone,

它能提供你某種程度的隱私，而且還很方便。

you can just go ahead and do it, right?

你不需要別人的同意，

However, for these things to help us survive,

你就可以打手機了，不是嗎？

it depends on them being carried.

而要讓我們得以存活下來，

But -- and it's a pretty big but -- we forget.

我們就得把這些東西帶在身上。

We're human, that's what we do. It's one of our features.

但是，我得強調「但是」，我們經常會忘記帶。

I think, quite a nice feature.

我們是人，會忘記很正常，這本來就是天性，

So we forget, but we're also adaptable,

而且我覺得還是個滿不錯的天性。

and we adapt to situations around us pretty well.

我們就是會忘記，但我們調適得很好，

And so we have these strategies to remember,

我們可以很容易地適應各種情況，

and one of them was mentioned yesterday.

所以我們發展出了各種加強記憶的方法，

And it's, quite simply, the point of reflection.

昨天的演講還有提到其中一種記憶方法。

And that's that moment when you're walking out of a space,

其實很簡單，每個人都有反射動作，

and you turn around, and quite often you tap your pockets.

想想看，當你離開一個地方，

Even women who keep stuff in their bags tap their pockets.

你會回過頭來，摸摸自己的口袋，

And you turn around, and you look back into the space,

就算是女士們把東西放在袋子裡，也會摸摸自己的口袋，

and some people talk aloud.

然後你回過頭去，看看剛才自己待的地方，

And pretty much everyone does it at some point.

就會發現有人在叫你，

OK, the next thing is -- most of you, if you have a stable home life,

大部分的人都有這種經驗。

and what I mean is that you don't travel all the time, and always in hotels,

接下來，大部分的人都有穩定的家庭生活，

but most people have what we call a center of gravity.

我是說你並不會長時間旅行，花很多時間待在旅館裡，

And a center of gravity is where you keep these objects.

大部分的人在家裡都有一個「重力中心」，

And these things don't stay in the center of gravity,

也就是你放這些東西的地方。

but over time, they gravitate there.

這些東西本來不是放在這個地方的，

It's where you expect to find stuff.

但是時間一久，他們就被吸引過來了，

And in fact, when you're turning around,

你會在這個地方找東西。

and you're looking inside the house,

事實上，當你回過頭來，

and you're looking for this stuff,

在屋子裡四處搜尋，

this is where you look first, right?

想要找到某樣東西時，

OK, so when we did this research,

你一定先來這裡找，對不對？

we found the absolutely, 100 percent, guaranteed way

所以，當我們在進行這項研究時，

to never forget anything ever, ever again.

我們發現了一個百分之百、

And that is, quite simply, to have nothing to remember.

永遠不會再忘記任何事情的方法，

(Laughter)

那就是：不要去記任何事情。

OK, now, that sounds like something you get on a Chinese fortune cookie, right?

(笑聲)

But is, in fact, about the art of delegation.

這有點像是中國的籤詩上會寫的句子，對吧？

And from a design perspective,

這其實是和授權有關係，

it's about understanding what you can delegate to technology

從設計者的角度來說，

and what you can delegate to other people.

我們要去瞭解你可以授權科技幫你做什麼事，

And it turns out, delegation -- if you want it to be --

或是授權別人幫你做什麼事。

can be the solution for pretty much everything,

我們發現，授權--如果你願意的話--

apart from things like bodily functions, going to the toilet.

可以解決幾乎所有的問題，

You can't ask someone to do that on your behalf.

除了個人生理需求的問題之外，像是上廁所，

And apart from things like entertainment,

你總不能叫別人幫你上廁所吧...

you wouldn't pay for someone to go to the cinema for you and have fun on your behalf,

還有娛樂層面的事情也不能，

or, at least, not yet.

你總不會付錢給某人，叫他去幫你看場電影吧...

Maybe sometime in the future, we will.

至少目前還沒有人這樣做，

So, let me give you an example of delegation in practice, right.

但或許未來會有人想這麼做。

So this is -- probably the thing I'm most passionate about

讓我舉個實際上授權的例子好了。

is the research that we've been doing on illiteracy

以下或許是我最熱衷的事情，

and how people who are illiterate communicate.

我們對文盲進行研究，

So, the U.N. estimated -- this is 2004 figures --

試圖瞭解文盲怎麼和別人溝通。

that there are almost 800 million people who can't read and write, worldwide.

聯合國估計--這是2004年的數據--

So, we've been conducting a lot of research.

全世界大約有八億人不能讀寫，

And one of the things we were looking at is --

所以我們針對這些人進行了許多研究，

if you can't read and write,

我們研究的項目之一，

if you want to communicate over distances,

就是如果你不會讀寫，

you need to be able to identify the person

而你又想和別人遠距離溝通，

that you want to communicate with.

你就得先描述出那個特定的人，

It could be a phone number, it could be an e-mail address,

才能進行溝通。

it could be a postal address.

有可能是透過電話號碼，也有可能是透過電郵地址，

Simple question: if you can't read and write,

或是透過真實的住宅地址，

how do you manage your contact information?

但如果你不能讀也不能寫，

And the fact is that millions of people do it.

要怎麼記住這些聯絡資訊？

Just from a design perspective, we didn't really understand how they did it,

但是事實上已經有好幾百萬的人辦到了，

and so that's just one small example

如果只從設計的角度來看，我們完全不知道他們是怎麼做到的，

of the kind of research that we were doing.

而這只是我們所進行的研究中，

And it turns out that illiterate people are masters of delegation.

其中一個很小的例子而已。

So they delegate that part of the task process to other people,

我們發現，文盲竟然是最會授權的人，

the stuff that they can't do themselves.

他們會把某些工作授權給別人去做，

Let me give you another example of delegation.

尤其是那些他們自己做不來的事情。

This one's a little bit more sophisticated,

我再舉另一個有關授權的例子，

and this is from a study that we did in Uganda

這個例子有點複雜，

about how people who are sharing devices, use those devices.

是我們在烏干達所做的研究，

Sente is a word in Uganda that means money.

我們在那裡研究人們如何與別人分享共用某些設備。

It has a second meaning, which is to send money as airtime. OK?

烏干達語裡，「申地」就表示錢的意思，

And it works like this.

另一個意義則是用電匯寄送金錢，清楚嗎？

So let's say, June, you're in a village, rural village.

事情是這樣的，

I'm in Kampala and I'm the wage earner.

舉個例子來說，瓊，你住在鄉村裡，偏僻的鄉村，

I'm sending money back, and it works like this.

我住在坎帕拉，我在那裡打工賺錢，

So, in your village, there's one person in the village with a phone,

如果我要把錢寄回家，我會這樣做：

and that's the phone kiosk operator.

在你住的村子裡，有個人有支手機，

And it's quite likely that they'd have a quite simple mobile phone as a phone kiosk.

那個人就等於是個接線生，

So what I do is, I buy a prepaid card like this.

他拿著一支功能簡單的手機坐在店裡，

And instead of using that money to top up my own phone,

而我，我就買一張像這樣的預付卡，

I call up the local village operator.

我不會幫自己的手機加值，

And I read out that number to them, and they use it to top up their phone.

我反而是打電話給村裡的接線生，

So, they're topping up the value from Kampala,

把預付卡上的號碼唸給他聽，讓他為他的手機加值，

and it's now being topped up in the village.

這樣他們就可以將我在坎帕拉買的額度，

You take a 10 or 20 percent commission, and then you --

加在村子裡的手機上。

the kiosk operator takes 10 or 20 percent commission,

你會收取10%或20%的佣金，然後，不是你--

and passes the rest over to you in cash.

接線生會收取10%或20%的佣金，

OK, there's two things I like about this.

然後把剩餘的錢轉成現金交給你。

So the first is, it turns anyone who has access to a mobile phone --

這裡面有二點我想要說明一下，

anyone who has a mobile phone --

第一，凡是可以撥打手機的人，

essentially into an ATM machine.

或是擁有手機的人，

It brings rudimentary banking services to places

就表示可以操作自動提款機，

where there's no banking infrastructure.

他們為沒有銀行體系的鄉村，

And even if they could have access to the banking infrastructure,

建立了最基本的銀行功能。

they wouldn't necessarily be considered viable customers,

即使當地有銀行在那裡，

because they're not wealthy enough to have bank accounts.

這些人也無法成為銀行的客戶，

There's a second thing I like about this.

因為他們根本沒錢可以存在銀行裡。

And that is that despite all the resources at my disposal,

我想說明的第二件事是，

and despite all our kind of apparent sophistication,

即使用盡我擁有所有的資源，

I know I could never have designed something as elegant

即便我們設計出來的手機精良無比，

and as totally in tune with the local conditions as this. OK?

我知道我們無論如何都無法設計出一款手機，

And, yes, there are things like Grameen Bank and micro-lending.

能完全符合當地的生活狀況，對嗎？

But the difference between this and that

那裡的確是有鄉村銀行和小額借貸這些機構，

is, there's no central authority trying to control this.

但差別在於，

This is just street-up innovation.

這種方式是沒有人管得到的，

So, it turns out the street is a never-ending source of

這是街邊的創意。

inspiration for us.

我們發現，這種街邊的創意，

And OK, if you break one of these things here, you return it to the carrier.

可以為我們提供源源不絕的靈感。

They'll give you a new one.

如果你弄壞了這支手機，你可以送回到電信公司，

They'll probably give you three new ones, right?

他們可能會給你一支新的手機，

I mean, that's buy three, get one free. That kind of thing.

或許最多會給到三支，對吧？

If you go on the streets of India and China, you see this kind of stuff.

我是說買三送一這類的事。

And this is where they take the stuff that breaks,

但如果你到印度或中國，你會在街上看到這個，

and they fix it, and they put it back into circulation.

他們會把壞掉的手機送到這裡，

This is from a workbench in Jilin City, in China,

修理一下，再拿到市面上賣。

and you can see people taking down a phone

這是中國吉林的某個手機修理站，

and putting it back together.

你可以看到有人把零件拆下來，

They reverse-engineer manuals.

再把手機組裝回去。

This is a kind of hacker's manual,

他們在做反向工程，

and it's written in Chinese and English.

還寫了破解手冊，

They also write them in Hindi.

有中文版、英文版，

You can subscribe to these.

還有印地語版。

There are training institutes where they're churning out people

你可以向他們訂購這個手冊，

for fixing these things as well.

也可以參加他們專為培育手機維修人才

But what I like about this is,

所成立的訓練機構。

it boils down to someone on the street with a small, flat surface,

但我感興趣的是，這個過程的最終結果

a screwdriver, a toothbrush for cleaning the contact heads --

是某個人來到街上，放上一個小桌子，

because they often get dust on the contact heads -- and knowledge.

拿一把螺絲起子、一把用來清理接頭的牙刷--

And it's all about the social network of the knowledge, floating around.

因為接頭常會沾到灰塵--就可以修理手機了。

And I like this because it challenges the way that we design stuff,

這就是這些修理手機的人的社交網絡，他們會互相傳遞新知。

and build stuff, and potentially distribute stuff.

我對這個很感興趣，因為這改變了我們設計手機的方式，

It challenges the norms.

改變我們製造手機、甚至販賣手機的方式，

OK, for me the street just raises so many different questions.

改變了所有的常規。

Like, this is Viagra that I bought from a backstreet sex shop in China.

對我來說，這些街邊生意總是引起我的好奇，