cosmology and biology, in the last 10 years,

在過去的十年中，我們在天文學

are really extraordinary --

宇宙學與生物學中所取得的進展

to the point where we know more about our universe and how it works

著實令人驚奇——

than many of you might imagine.

我們對於宇宙本身及其運轉方式的瞭解程度

But there was something else that I've noticed

可能已經遠遠超出各位的想像。

as those changes were taking place, as people were starting to find out that

但除此之外我還注意到

hmm ... yeah, there really is a black hole at the center of every galaxy.

正當萬物悄然變遷之時，正如人們開始發現的那樣

The science writers and editors -- I shouldn't say science writers,

恩......不錯，在每一個星系中央真的都有一個黑洞。

I should say people who write about science --

科普作家和編輯們——我不應該叫他們『科普作家』，

and editors would sit down over a couple of beers,

而應該叫『那些以科學為寫作題材的人』

after a hard day of work, and start talking about

——在一天的辛苦工作結束後，他們和編輯們會一同坐下

some of these incredible perceptions about how the universe works.

飲著啤酒，然後便開始討論這些

And they would inevitably end up in what I thought was a very bizarre place,

難以置信的關於宇宙如何運行的理論。

which is ways the world could end very suddenly.

而這談話將不可避免地以一個我認為相當詭異的話題來結束，

And that's what I want to talk about today. (Laughter)

那即是：世界瞬間滅亡的數種方式。

Ah, you laugh, you fools. (Laughter)

而那正是我今天要談論的話題。（笑）

(Voice: Can we finish up a little early?)

哈，你們笑吧，這些笨蛋。（笑）

(Laughter) Yeah, we need the time!

台下觀眾：我們能早些結束嗎？

Stephen Petranek: At first, it all seemed a little fantastical to me, but after challenging a lot of these ideas,

（笑）是啊，我們要把握好時間！

I began to take a lot of them seriously. And then September 11 happened,

起初我覺得這個問題有點空穴來風，但當思索了很多這方面的問題之後，

and I thought, ah, God,

我開始嚴肅地看待這些問題。隨後就發生了911事件，

I can't go to the TED conference and talk about how the world is going to end.

然後我就想，噢，天呐，

Nobody wants to hear that. Not after this!

我可不能到TED去談論世界將如何滅亡。

And that got me into a discussion with some other people, other scientists,

因為沒有人想聽那個話題。在911之後沒有人還想聽！

about maybe some other subjects, and one of the guys I talked to,

因此我與一些其他的人，其他的科學家

who was a neuroscientist, said,

就一些其他的話題展開了討論，而這其中參與討論的一人

"You know, I think there are a lot of solutions to the problems you brought up,"

是一位神經學家，他說，

and reminds me of Michael's talk yesterday

你知道嗎，我認為你提出的問題有很多的解決辦法，

and his mother saying you can't have a solution if you don't have a problem.

這使我想起麥克（Michael）昨天的演講

So, we went out looking for solutions to ways that the world might end tomorrow,

他的母親對他說：如果你提不出問題，就不會有一個與之相應的解決方案。

and lo and behold, we found them.

因此我們出發去尋找能拯救世界的方法。

Which leads me to a videotape of a President Bush

喏，你們看，我們找到了。

press conference from a couple of weeks ago.

那就是一卷紀錄了布希總統

Can we run that, Andrew?

幾個星期之前舉行的一場記者招待會的錄影帶。

President George W. Bush: Whatever it costs to defend our security,

Andrew 能播放一下那錄影帶嗎？

and whatever it costs to defend our freedom, we must pay it.

布希總統：『無論保衛國家安全的代價多麼高昂，

SP: I agree with the president.

無論捍衛自由的代價多麼高昂，我們都必須支付。』

He wants two trillion dollars to protect us from terrorists next year,

我同意總統所說的話。

a two-trillion-dollar federal budget, which will land us back into deficit spending real fast.

明年他打算將兩兆美元的經費來於對抗恐怖分子，

But terrorists aren't the only threat we face.

而兩兆美元的聯邦財政預算會使我們很快陷入財政赤字，

There are really serious calamities staring us in the eye

-- 但恐怖分子不是我們面臨的唯一威脅。

that we're in the same kind of denial about

還有一些危險藏在暗處，

that we were about terrorism, and what could've happened on September 11.

我們還未能對其察覺，

I would propose, therefore, that if we took 10 billion dollars

就像當時我們不曾預測恐怖主義在9月11號降臨一樣。

from that 2.13 trillion dollar budget --

我敢說，如果我們從那2.13萬億美元的財政預算中，

which is two one hundredths of that budget --

拿出100億美元

and we doled out a billion dollars to each one of these problems

——也就是預算總額的1%或者2%

I'm going to talk to you about, the vast majority could be solved,

——來分作十份分別派給我將要談論的十個問題，

and the rest we could deal with. So, I hope you find this both fascinating --

那麼大部份的問題便可迎刃而解了，

I'm fascinated by this kind of stuff, I gotta admit --

而剩下的我們也可以著手處理。因此我希望你們能看到這樣做的好處——

to me these are Richard's cockroaches.

我得承認我被這些想法給迷住了——

But I also hope, because I think the people in this room can literally change the world,

對我來說他們就是——理查的螳螂(Richard's cockroaches)。

I hope you take some of this stuff away with you,

但我也同時希望——因為我認為在座的各位確實能改變世界

and when you have an opportunity to be influential,

——我希望你們能夠參與，

that you try to get some heavy-duty money spent on some of these ideas.

而且在你們成為有影響力的公眾人物之後，

So let's start. Number 10: we lose the will to survive.

能努力募集資金來解決這些問題。

We live in an incredible age of modern medicine.

那麼我們就開始吧。問題10：我們對生存失去了信心。

We are all much healthier than we were 20 years ago.

我們活在一個現代醫學的神話時代；

People around the world are getting better medicine --

我們比起20年前的自己要健康多了。

but mentally, we're falling apart.

人們能獲得更好的藥物——

The World Health Organization now estimates

但我們的精神世界卻支離破碎。

that one out of five people on the planet is clinically depressed.

世界衛生組織(WHO)估計

And the World Health Organization also says that depression is the

世界上每五個人之中就有一個得了臨床所稱的憂鬱症。

biggest epidemic that humankind has ever faced.

世界衛生組織(WHO)還說憂鬱是

Soon, genetic breakthroughs and even better medicine

人類有史以來，所面臨的疫情最大的傳染病。

are going to allow us to think of 100 as a normal lifespan.

很快地，在基因學方面取得的突破，和更好的藥物

A female child born tomorrow, on average -- median -- will live to age 83.

會讓我們覺得活到100歲也不是問題。

Our life longevity is going up almost a year for every year that passes.

未來女性的平均年齡——或者取其中值——將達到83歲。

Now the problem with all of this, getting older,

每一年我們的壽命都會延長一歲。

is that people over 65 are the most likely people to commit suicide.

但隨之產生的問題是

So, what are the solutions?

65歲以上的人群的自殺傾向最高。

We don't really have mental health insurance in this country,

該如何解決呢？

and it's -- (Applause) -- it's really a crime.

美國還沒有針對『心理健康』的保險，

Something like 98 percent of all people with depression,

而這——（掌聲）——這真是一個罪過。

and I mean really severe depression

98%的人患有憂鬱症——

-- I have a friend with stunningly severe depression

我指的是那些患有嚴重憂鬱症的人

-- this is a curable disease, with present medicine and present technology.

——我有一位朋友就有非常嚴重的憂鬱症

But it is often a combination of talk therapy and pills.

——而當今的醫藥和技術是可以治療憂鬱症的。

Pills alone don't do it, especially in clinically depressed people.

但通常其治療方案是心理輔導與藥物的結合。

You ought to be able to go to a psychiatrist or a psychologist,

光吃藥是沒用的，尤其對那些患有臨床憂鬱的人來說。

and put down your 10-dollar copay, and get treated,

你還得去看精神科專家——或者心理醫生——

just like you do when you got a cut on your arm. It's ridiculous.

一次的治療得花去你10美元大洋，

Secondly, drug companies are not going to develop really sophisticated

跟手臂割傷的治療費用差不多。這也太荒謬了。

psychoactive drugs. We know that most mental illnesses have a biological

其次，製藥公司還無法製造出真正有效的精神藥物

component that can be dealt with.

而我們知道大多數的精神疾病都有一些

And we know just an amazing amount more about the brain now than we

可以被控制的生物成份。

did 10 years ago. We need a pump-push from the federal government,

而我們現在對大腦的瞭解也比10年前深入很多。

through NIH and National Science -- NSF --

我們需要聯邦政府、國家衛生研究所(NIH)

and places like that to start helping the drug companies

國家科學基金會(NSF)或者其它相關機構

develop some advanced psychoactive drugs.

的鼎力協助，從而幫助製藥公司

Moving on. Number nine -- don't laugh -- aliens invade Earth.

開發一些先進的精神類藥物。

Ten years ago, you couldn't have found an astronomer --

好下一話題。問題9——不要笑——外星人入侵地球。

well, very few astronomers -- in the world who would've told you that

10年前，你還找不到1位天文學家——

there are any planets anywhere outside our solar system.

恩，或者只有極少的天文學家——會告訴你

1995, we found three. The count now is up to 80 --

在太陽系之外的任何地方都有行星存在。

we're finding about two or three a month.

1995年我們發現了三個，而現在已經多達80個。

All of the ones we've found, by the way, are in this little, teeny, tiny corner where we live,

也就是一個月發現兩到三個。

in the Milky Way. There must be millions of planets in the Milky Way,

順便說一句，我們所發現的這些行星，都位於我們身處的這個狹小空間之內，

and as Carl Sagan insisted for many years,

都未脫離銀河系。銀河系中有肯定有上百萬顆星星，

and was laughed at for it, there must be billions and billions in the universe.

而正如卡爾•薩根(Carl Sagan)堅持數年，

In a few years, NASA is going to launch four or five telescopes out to Jupiter,

也被嘲笑數年的說法一樣，宇宙中一定有不計其數顆行星。

where there's less dust, and start looking for Earth-like planets,

幾年之內NASA會發射四到五個天文望遠鏡至木星上，

which we cannot see with present technology, nor detect.

木星上的塵埃較少，因此對類地行星的搜尋將在那裡展開，

It's becoming obvious that the chance that life does not exist elsewhere in the universe,

而僅憑目前技術我們還不能實現類似的觀測。

and probably fairly close to us, is a fairly remote idea.

現在看來，宇宙中只有地球上存有生物的觀點

And the chance that some of it isn't more intelligent than ours is also a remote idea.

與地球附近就有能孕育生命的星球的觀點都是不切實際的想法。

Remember, we've only been an advanced civilization --

再者，想像一些其他星球的生命都不如我們智能也同樣不切實際。

an industrial civilization, if you would -- for 200 years.

要知道，我們的先進文化——

Although every time I go to Pompeii, I'm amazed that they had

一種工業文化，如果你稍微想一想——也僅有200年歷史而已。

the equivalent of a McDonald's on every street corner, too.

縱使每次我去龐貝(Pompeii)都會為那里

So, I don't know how much civilization really has progressed since AD 79,

每個街角所開設的與麥當勞不相上下的店感到震驚。

but there's a great likelihood. I really believe this,

因此我并不認為我們的文明自公元79年之後進步了多少，

and I don't believe in aliens, and I don't believe there are any aliens on the Earth

但同時也很有可能——我對此確信無疑，

or anything like that. But there's a likelihood that we will confront a

我不相信外星人理論，而——我也不相信在地球上有外星人或

civilization that is more intelligent than our own.

類似的物種存在。但有可能我們在未來會遇上一個

Now, what will happen? What if they come to, you know,

比我們的文明更加先進的物種。

suck up our oceans for the hydrogen?

那麼那個時候會發生什麽呢？如果他們來吸乾

And swat us away like flies, the way we swat away flies when we go into

我們的海洋以獲取氫氣呢？

the rainforest and start logging it.

如果它們像拍蒼蠅似地驅趕我們，就像我們在熱帶雨林中

We can look at our own history. The late physicist Gerard O'Neill said,

伐木時那樣驅趕蒼蠅?

"Advanced Western civilization has had a destructive effect

我們可看看自己的歷史——已故物理學家傑勒德•奧尼爾(Gerard O'Neill)曾說，

on all primitive civilizations it has come in contact with,

『先進的西方文明對它所牽涉到的

even in those cases where every attempt was made

一切原始文明都有摧毀作用，

to protect and guard the primitive civilization."

就算有時人們盡了全力去捍衛原始文化，

If the aliens come visiting, we're the primitive civilization.

也無濟於事。』

So, what are the solutions to this? (Laughter)

而如果外星人造訪地球，我們就是那原始的文明。

Thank God you can all read!

那麼這個問題怎麼解決呢？（笑）

It may seem ridiculous, but we have a really lousy history of anticipating things like this

感謝上帝各位都識字啊！

and actually being prepared for them.

這看起來或許荒謬，但在過去我們在這個領域

How much energy and money does it take to actually have a plan

的預測和實質準備工作上都相當不足。

to negotiate with an advanced species?

制定一個與先進物種交涉的計劃

Secondly -- and you're going to hear more from me about this --

需要耗費多少精力和財力呢？

we have to become an outward-looking, space-faring nation.

這第二點，是我將著重闡述的——

We have got to develop the

我們的國家必須放眼地球之外，拓取外太空。

idea that the Earth doesn't last forever,

我們必須進一步強化

our sun doesn't last forever.

地球不會永存的觀點，

If we want humanity to last forever, we have to colonize the Milky Way.

強化太陽不會永存的觀點——

And that is not something that is beyond comprehension at this point.

如果我們希望人類永存則必須殖民銀河系。

(Applause)

而那現在不是什麽不可想像的事情。

It'll also help us a lot, if we meet an advanced civilization along the way,

（掌聲）

if we're trying to be an advanced civilization. Number eight --

這麼做對我們也大有好處，如果在開拓的過程中我們遇上了另一隻先進物種，

(Voice: Steve, that's what I'm doing after TED.) (Laughter) (Applause)

如果我們試圖成為一隻先進的物種。問題8——

SP: You've got it! You've got the job.

台下觀眾：史蒂夫(Steve), 那就是我在聽完演說后要成為的。（笑聲&掌聲）

Number eight: the ecosystem collapses.

你已經領悟了！你會的。

Last July, in Science, the journal Science,

問題8：生態系統的崩潰。

19 oceanographers published a very, very unusual article.

去年七月，『科學』，我指『科學』週刊中，

It wasn't really a research report; it was a screed.

19位海洋學家發表了一篇非常，非常特殊的文章——

They said, we've been looking at the oceans for a long time now,

它并不是一份研究報告，而是一篇長篇大論。

and we want to tell you they're not in trouble, they're near collapse.

科學家在文中說道，我們研究海洋已經很長一段時間了，

Many other ecosystems on Earth are in real, real danger.

此時我們想告訴你們，海洋面臨的不是麻煩，而是瀕臨崩潰。

We're living in a time of mass extinctions that exceeds the fossil record

地球上很多其它的生態系統正處於危險之中。

by a factor of 10,000.

我們生活在一個物種大量滅絕的時代，其速度和遠古時期相比

We have lost 25 percent of the unique species in Hawaii in the last 20 years.

快了1萬倍。

California is expected to lose 25 percent of its species in the next 40 years.

在過去的20年，夏威夷(Hawaii)有25%的珍稀物種滅絕，

Somewhere in the Amazon forest is the marginal tree.

預計加州也將在未來40年內損失25%的物種。

You cut down that tree, the rain forest collapses as an ecosystem.

在亞馬遜(Amazon)森林某處有一種樹，只剩下最後一棵。

There's really a tree like that out there. That's really what it comes to.

你將它伐倒，熱帶雨林的生態系統就從此崩潰。

And when that ecosystem collapses, it could take a major ecosystem with it,

在某個地方的確有這麼一棵樹。真的就這麼一棵。

like our atmosphere. So, what do we do about this? What are the solutions?

而當那個生態系統崩潰后，它會拖累一個主要的生態系統，

There is some modeling of ecosystems going on now.

譬如說我們的大氣生態系統。那麼我們如何應對呢？

The problem with ecosystems is that we understand them so poorly,

現在已經有一些模擬生態系統，

that we don't know they're really in trouble until it's almost too late.

發生在生態系統上的問題可歸結為我們對其瞭解太少

We need to know earlier that they're getting in trouble,

以至於我們不知道他們已經陷入困境，而知道的時候往往已經太晚了。

and we need to be able to pump possible solutions into models.

我們需要早一些知道它們出現了問題，

And with the kind of computing power we have now,

然後我們需要在生態模型上試驗解決之道。

there is, as I say, some of this going on, but it needs money.

而這可以藉助強大的電算能力

National Science Foundation needs to say -- you know,

——如我所言，現在的確有這樣的技術，但它還是需要投資。

almost all the money that's spent on science in this country

我們需要國家科學基金會(NSF)來拍板——你們知道的，

comes from the federal government, one way or another.

對科學事業的投資幾乎

And they get to prioritize, you know?

全部都來自聯邦政府各種名目的管道。

There are people at the National Science Foundation

而資金投注是有其優先順序的，各位知道吧？

who get to say, this is the most important thing.

我們需要有國家科學基金會(NSF)的人站出來說

This is one of the things they ought to be thinking more about.

這就是當前最重要的事。

Secondly, we need to create huge biodiversity reserves on the planet,

說這就是他們應該重點考慮的事項之一。

and start moving them around.

其次，我們需要在地球上建立大型自然保護區，以保護生物多樣性

There's been an experiment for the last four or five years on the Georges Bank,

并於此將影響逐步擴散。

or the Grand Banks off of Newfoundland. It's a no-take fishing zone.

在過去的4、5年，在喬治斯河岸(Georges Bank)——或者是

They can't fish there for a radius of 200 miles.

紐芬蘭(Newfoundland)的大淺灘(Grand Banks)劃分了『非捕魚區』。

And an amazing thing has happened: almost all the fish have come back,

區域周圍200英里半徑之內不許捕魚。

and they're reproducing like crazy. We're going to have to start doing this

然後一件神奇的事情發生了——幾乎所有的魚兒都回來了

around the globe. We're going to have to have no-take zones.

並以驚人的速度繁殖。我們將在全球範圍內

We're going to have to say, no more logging in the Amazon for 20 years.

推廣這一做法。我們必須要設立『非捕魚區』。

Let it recover, before we start logging again.

我們必須呼籲，在未來的20年，禁止在亞馬遜(Amazon)森林砍伐。

(Applause)

在伐木之前請先讓森林得以恢復。

Number seven: particle accelerator mishap.

（掌聲）

You all remember Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber?

問題7：粒子加速器事故。

One of the things he raved about was that a particle accelerator experiment

你們都記得泰德•卡欽斯基(Ted Kaczynski)，那個郵包炸彈恐怖分子吧？

could go haywire and set off a chain reaction that would destroy the world.

他狂熱的事情之一便是一個粒子加速的實驗

A lot of very sober-minded physicists, believe it or not,

在失去控制後能產生一系列反應，最終摧毀地球。

have had exactly the same thought.

有很多頭腦清醒的物理學家，不管你信不信，

This spring -- there's a collider at Brookhaven, on Long Island --

都有過類似的想法。

this spring, it's going to have an experiment in which it creates black holes.

這個春天，在布魯克海文(Brookhaven),在長島上(Long Island)有一台對撞機——

They are expecting to create little, tiny black holes.

這個春天它將被啟用來做一項模擬黑洞的實驗。

They expect them to evaporate. (Laughter)

科學家們希望憑此來製造一些小小的黑洞。

I hope they're right. (Laughter)

他們還希望他們能自行消失。（笑）

Other collider experiments -- there's one that's going to take place next summer

我希望他們是正確的。（笑）

at CERN -- have the possibility of creating something called strangelets,

另一個對撞實驗——下個夏天在歐洲核子研究中心（CERN）

which are kind of like antimatter. Whenever they hit other matter, they destroy it

將有一實驗——有可能製造出一種叫做『奇異微子』的東西，

and obliterate it. Most physicists say that the accelerators we have now

這東西有點像反物質，任何時候它們一旦與其他物質相撞便會與其同歸於盡，

are not really powerful enough to create black holes and strangelets

不留痕跡。大多數物理學家都說我們現在擁有的加速區

that we need to worry about, and they're probably right.

還沒強大到能製造出令人恐慌的黑洞和『奇異微子』

But, all around the world, in Japan, in Canada,

或許他們是對的。

there's talk about this, of reviving this in the United States.

但——從世界範圍來看，在日本、加拿大——

We shut one down that was going to be big.

都在談論相關的事情——都在談要在美國重振這一事業。

But there's talk of building very big accelerators.