Name: 【TED】斯蒂芬-佩特拉內克：世界可能結束的10種方式（Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end）。 (【TED】Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end (Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:25:33.000Z
Duration: 29 min 55 s

The advances that have taken place in astronomy,

譯者: Xiujian Xie 審譯者: Josie Chen

cosmology and biology, in the last 10 years,

在過去的十年中，我們在天文學

程度副詞

宇宙學與生物學中所取得的進展

to the point where we know more about our universe and how it works

我們對於宇宙本身及其運轉方式的瞭解程度

But there was something else that I've noticed

可能已經遠遠超出各位的想像。

as those changes were taking place, as people were starting to find out that

hmm ... yeah, there really is a black hole at the center of every galaxy.

正當萬物悄然變遷之時，正如人們開始發現的那樣

The science writers and editors -- I shouldn't say science writers,

恩......不錯，在每一個星系中央真的都有一個黑洞。

I should say people who write about science --

科普作家和編輯們——我不應該叫他們『科普作家』，

and editors would sit down over a couple of beers,

而應該叫『那些以科學為寫作題材的人』

after a hard day of work, and start talking about

——在一天的辛苦工作結束後，他們和編輯們會一同坐下

some of these incredible perceptions about how the universe works.

飲著啤酒，然後便開始討論這些

And they would inevitably end up in what I thought was a very bizarre place,

難以置信的關於宇宙如何運行的理論。

which is ways the world could end very suddenly.

而這談話將不可避免地以一個我認為相當詭異的話題來結束，

And that's what I want to talk about today. (Laughter)

那即是：世界瞬間滅亡的數種方式。

而那正是我今天要談論的話題。（笑）

(Voice: Can we finish up a little early?)

哈，你們笑吧，這些笨蛋。（笑）

台下觀眾：我們能早些結束嗎？

Stephen Petranek: At first, it all seemed a little fantastical to me, but after challenging a lot of these ideas,

（笑）是啊，我們要把握好時間！

I began to take a lot of them seriously. And then September 11 happened,

起初我覺得這個問題有點空穴來風，但當思索了很多這方面的問題之後，

我開始嚴肅地看待這些問題。隨後就發生了911事件，

I can't go to the TED conference and talk about how the world is going to end.

Nobody wants to hear that. Not after this!

我可不能到TED去談論世界將如何滅亡。

And that got me into a discussion with some other people, other scientists,

因為沒有人想聽那個話題。在911之後沒有人還想聽！

about maybe some other subjects, and one of the guys I talked to,

因此我與一些其他的人，其他的科學家

就一些其他的話題展開了討論，而這其中參與討論的一人

"You know, I think there are a lot of solutions to the problems you brought up,"

and reminds me of Michael's talk yesterday

你知道嗎，我認為你提出的問題有很多的解決辦法，

and his mother saying you can't have a solution if you don't have a problem.

這使我想起麥克（Michael）昨天的演講

So, we went out looking for solutions to ways that the world might end tomorrow,

他的母親對他說：如果你提不出問題，就不會有一個與之相應的解決方案。

因此我們出發去尋找能拯救世界的方法。

Which leads me to a videotape of a President Bush

press conference from a couple of weeks ago.

幾個星期之前舉行的一場記者招待會的錄影帶。

President George W. Bush: Whatever it costs to defend our security,

and whatever it costs to defend our freedom, we must pay it.

布希總統：『無論保衛國家安全的代價多麼高昂，

無論捍衛自由的代價多麼高昂，我們都必須支付。』

He wants two trillion dollars to protect us from terrorists next year,

a two-trillion-dollar federal budget, which will land us back into deficit spending real fast.

明年他打算將兩兆美元的經費來於對抗恐怖分子，

But terrorists aren't the only threat we face.

而兩兆美元的聯邦財政預算會使我們很快陷入財政赤字，

There are really serious calamities staring us in the eye

-- 但恐怖分子不是我們面臨的唯一威脅。

that we're in the same kind of denial about

that we were about terrorism, and what could've happened on September 11.

I would propose, therefore, that if we took 10 billion dollars

就像當時我們不曾預測恐怖主義在9月11號降臨一樣。

我敢說，如果我們從那2.13萬億美元的財政預算中，

which is two one hundredths of that budget --

and we doled out a billion dollars to each one of these problems

I'm going to talk to you about, the vast majority could be solved,

——來分作十份分別派給我將要談論的十個問題，

and the rest we could deal with. So, I hope you find this both fascinating --

那麼大部份的問題便可迎刃而解了，

I'm fascinated by this kind of stuff, I gotta admit --

而剩下的我們也可以著手處理。因此我希望你們能看到這樣做的好處——

我得承認我被這些想法給迷住了——

But I also hope, because I think the people in this room can literally change the world,

對我來說他們就是——理查的螳螂(Richard's cockroaches)。

I hope you take some of this stuff away with you,

但我也同時希望——因為我認為在座的各位確實能改變世界

and when you have an opportunity to be influential,

that you try to get some heavy-duty money spent on some of these ideas.

而且在你們成為有影響力的公眾人物之後，

So let's start. Number 10: we lose the will to survive.

能努力募集資金來解決這些問題。

We live in an incredible age of modern medicine.

那麼我們就開始吧。問題10：我們對生存失去了信心。

We are all much healthier than we were 20 years ago.

我們活在一個現代醫學的神話時代；

People around the world are getting better medicine --

我們比起20年前的自己要健康多了。

The World Health Organization now estimates

但我們的精神世界卻支離破碎。

that one out of five people on the planet is clinically depressed.

And the World Health Organization also says that depression is the

世界上每五個人之中就有一個得了臨床所稱的憂鬱症。

biggest epidemic that humankind has ever faced.

Soon, genetic breakthroughs and even better medicine

人類有史以來，所面臨的疫情最大的傳染病。

are going to allow us to think of 100 as a normal lifespan.

很快地，在基因學方面取得的突破，和更好的藥物

A female child born tomorrow, on average -- median -- will live to age 83.

會讓我們覺得活到100歲也不是問題。

Our life longevity is going up almost a year for every year that passes.

未來女性的平均年齡——或者取其中值——將達到83歲。

Now the problem with all of this, getting older,

每一年我們的壽命都會延長一歲。

is that people over 65 are the most likely people to commit suicide.

65歲以上的人群的自殺傾向最高。

We don't really have mental health insurance in this country,

and it's -- (Applause) -- it's really a crime.

美國還沒有針對『心理健康』的保險，

Something like 98 percent of all people with depression,

而這——（掌聲）——這真是一個罪過。

-- I have a friend with stunningly severe depression

我指的是那些患有嚴重憂鬱症的人

-- this is a curable disease, with present medicine and present technology.

——我有一位朋友就有非常嚴重的憂鬱症

But it is often a combination of talk therapy and pills.

——而當今的醫藥和技術是可以治療憂鬱症的。

Pills alone don't do it, especially in clinically depressed people.

但通常其治療方案是心理輔導與藥物的結合。

You ought to be able to go to a psychiatrist or a psychologist,

光吃藥是沒用的，尤其對那些患有臨床憂鬱的人來說。

and put down your 10-dollar copay, and get treated,

你還得去看精神科專家——或者心理醫生——

just like you do when you got a cut on your arm. It's ridiculous.

一次的治療得花去你10美元大洋，

Secondly, drug companies are not going to develop really sophisticated

跟手臂割傷的治療費用差不多。這也太荒謬了。

psychoactive drugs. We know that most mental illnesses have a biological

其次，製藥公司還無法製造出真正有效的精神藥物

而我們知道大多數的精神疾病都有一些

And we know just an amazing amount more about the brain now than we

did 10 years ago. We need a pump-push from the federal government,

而我們現在對大腦的瞭解也比10年前深入很多。

through NIH and National Science -- NSF --

我們需要聯邦政府、國家衛生研究所(NIH)

and places like that to start helping the drug companies

國家科學基金會(NSF)或者其它相關機構

develop some advanced psychoactive drugs.

的鼎力協助，從而幫助製藥公司

Moving on. Number nine -- don't laugh -- aliens invade Earth.

Ten years ago, you couldn't have found an astronomer --

好下一話題。問題9——不要笑——外星人入侵地球。

well, very few astronomers -- in the world who would've told you that

10年前，你還找不到1位天文學家——

there are any planets anywhere outside our solar system.

恩，或者只有極少的天文學家——會告訴你

1995, we found three. The count now is up to 80 --

在太陽系之外的任何地方都有行星存在。

we're finding about two or three a month.

1995年我們發現了三個，而現在已經多達80個。

All of the ones we've found, by the way, are in this little, teeny, tiny corner where we live,

in the Milky Way. There must be millions of planets in the Milky Way,

順便說一句，我們所發現的這些行星，都位於我們身處的這個狹小空間之內，

and as Carl Sagan insisted for many years,

都未脫離銀河系。銀河系中有肯定有上百萬顆星星，

【TED】斯蒂芬-佩特拉內克：世界可能結束的10種方式（Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end）。 (【TED】Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end (Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end))