China's next financial crisis is lurking in the shadows...

中國下一波金融風暴 在暗影中潛伏

of shadow banking.

在影子銀行的暗影中潛伏

It's like China stacked up 9 trillion dollars...

有如中國在懸崖邊

on the edge of a cliff.

堆起九兆元的現金

Hi, welcome to China Uncensored.

歡迎收看《中國解密》

I'm Matt Gnaizda.

我是 Matt Gnaizda

I'm in today for Chris Chappell,

今天為 Chris Chappell 代班

who's on vacation,

因為他度假去了

possibly in the South China Sea.

可能去了中國南海

Today, we're going to talk about shadow banking.

今天我們要談談影子銀行

It's like the evil twin of regular banking.

有點像一般銀行的邪惡兄弟

Shadow banking involves lots of money,

影子銀行牽涉到龐大的資金

and lots of risk.

與非常高的風險

And it's tied to China's crazy investment boom.

也和中國的投資熱潮息息相關

China's economic boom

中國的經濟繁榮

and its reliance on shadow banking

以及對影子銀行的依賴

is similar in some ways

有點類似 2007 年

to the US economic boom in 2007.

美國的經濟榮景

Remember:

別忘了

A lot of great things happened in 2007.

2007 年發生了很多好事

Apple released the iPhone 1.

蘋果公司推出了 iPhone 1

The last Harry Potter book was published...

哈利波特完結篇也出版了…

which Chris still has not read.

Chris 到現在都還沒讀

And the US economy had its last...good...year.

美國的經濟盛世也來到了尾聲

Because then this happened.

因為接下來這個發生了

“Stocks all around the world are tanking

由於華爾街危機

because of the crisis on Wall Street.”

全世界的股市一片慘淡

“The stock market is now down 21%”

股市下跌了 21%

“We have armageddon.

這是世界末日

In the fixed income markets we have armageddon.”

固定收益證卷的 現況跟本就是世界末日

“No, but...”

但是…

“We have armageddon.”

這是世界末日

“Armageddon”—thanks Jim Cramer—

吉姆·克藍瑪謝謝

happened after the failure

這場世界末日的肇因

of a single investment bank had a domino effect

起源於一家投資銀行破產

on the entire global financial system.

引發全球金融系統的骨牌效應

Trillions of dollars were lost,

損失多達好幾兆美元

and so were millions of jobs.

也造成數百萬人失業

Well, it's been ten years since then.

這已經是十年前的事了

These guys have recovered,

這些肥貓已經回到老位子

but these guys...not so much.

但失業的人可沒拿回工作

But now, this same kind of

這種大好大壞的景況

boom and crash could happen in China—

可能也會遵循同樣的模式

and for the same reason.

在中國發生

As Bloomberg puts it,

《彭博》指出

China is playing a 9 trillion dollar game of chicken

中國正在進行一場金額九兆元

called Shadow Banking.

名為影子銀行的懦夫博弈

And like a game of chicken,

如同懦夫博弈

some investors will get out in time.

有些投資者能即時退出

But others will plunge off the cliff,

有些人卻煞不住車

bursting into a ball of flames on the rocks below.

最終墜崖起火爆炸

So what is this totally legit

所以這個聽起來合法又可靠的

and trustworthy sounding “shadow banking”?

影子銀行究竟是什麼呢？

To put it simply,

簡單來說

shadow banking is when banks—

影子銀行是指一家銀行

or companies that are not banks—

或者不是銀行的公司

lend money outside of the normal structure

以非正規銀行 存款與貸款的方式

of bank deposits and loans.

提供借貸

Here's a simplified explanation.

舉個簡單的例子

In the traditional banking system,

在傳統的銀行系統中

if a business owner wants to grow his business,

業主若想拓展事業

he goes to a bank, and that bank loans him money.

就會向銀行申請貸款

Over time,

過了一段時間

he repays that money to the bank,

業主還清貸款

plus interest.

包含利息

Let's say a single bank makes 100 loans.

假設一家銀行 提供了 100 筆貸款

It's pretty careful about who it loans to.

也仔細審核了貸款對象

But even so,

但是

some of the businesses will fail,

一定會有一些企業倒閉

so Chinese regulations require

因此，中國的法律規定

that the bank set aside money

銀行必須撥出一筆資金

to cover potential losses.

用來負擔潛在的損失

But shadow banking operates

但是影子銀行的作業模式

outside that traditional system.

跳脫了傳統的借貸規範

Let's say 100 businesses want loans.

假如有 100 家企業需要貸款

A shadow bank packages those 100 potential loans

影子銀行就會將這些潛在貸款

into what's called a Wealth Management Product.

另外包裝成財富管理產品

Then it goes to investors and is like,

接著銀行就向投資人推銷

“Hey, buy our Wealth Management Product.

「來買我們的財富管理產品吧

It has a high interest rate.”

利率很高喔」

When the businesses repay,

當企業還清貸款時

the investors will get their investment back

投資者就能拿回本金

plus a lot of interest.

以及很高的利率

This is shadow banking.

這就是所謂的影子銀行

It can also get more complicated.

當然，有時情況會更複雜

Because sometimes the bank isn't a bank,

因為發行財富管理產品的

but just a regular company

不一定是銀行

that packages investments.

有時可能是一般的公司

And sometimes the businesses

這些貸款的對象

that want to borrow money

也不一定是一般企業

aren't regular businesses.

有時可能是地方政府

They might even be a local government

想藉由貸款來建造橋樑等等

that wants money to build a bridge or whatever.

藉由重新包裝

All these things can be packaged

很多東西都能成為 財富管理產品

into Wealth Management Products,

或是其他類型的金融產品

or other types of financial products,

然後賣給投資者

and then sold to investors—

或賣給投資公司

or sold to investment companies,

投資公司再重新包裝

which then re-package them

轉賣給個體戶

before selling to individual investors.

許多時候

A lot of times,

影子銀行貸款變得相當複雜

shadow bank loans get so complicated

根本沒人知道

that no one understands

實際的風險有多高

exactly what the risk is.

根據這篇文章

According to this article,

信貸重新包裝後變得很複雜

“The repackaging of credit is so complex

銀行行員若想向客戶解釋清楚

that bankers often have to resort to

就必須畫出像 魯布戈德堡機械般

line drawings that look like schematic plans

錯綜複雜的示意圖

for a Rube Goldberg device

才有辦法解釋清楚

to explain to clients what's going on.”

就跟魯布戈德堡機械一樣

A Rube Goldberg device.

只要拉動一個槓桿

Like when you pull a lever,

就會啟動輪子

that sets a wheel in motion,

這些骨牌就會倒塌

that knocks down some dominoes,

最終摧毀整個經濟體

that ends up destroying the economy.

講這麼多影子銀行

But all this shadow banking

和什麼財富管理產品

and Wealth Management whatevers

實在太複雜了

are so complicated!

投資者才不想了解細節

Investors don't want to know details!

所以涉入影子銀行的公司

That's why companies involved in shadow banking

推出了溫暖人心的廣告

put out feel-good ads like this:

每個人心裡面都有一道陽光

“Everyone holds sunshine at their hearts

照亮你的一生

Everbright your life

中國光大銀行

China Everbright Bank”

看到了嗎？

See?

只要把錢交給我們

Give us your money,

你的心裡就會有陽光

and you'll have sunshine in your heart!

廣告中的光大銀行

That bank, Everbright,

是合法的商業銀行

is actually a legit commercial bank.

他們也做一般的貸款業務

It makes regular loans, too.

但是，他們最近也向投資者

But recently it's also been selling

發行了許多影子銀行產品

a lot of shadow banking products to investors,

因為這有助於光大銀行

because that allows Everbright

將利潤最大化

to maximize profit without putting

自身的資金卻不會有風險

so much of its own money on the line.

可說是把風險賣給投資人

Basically, it sells the risk to investors.

但是很多中國的投資人

But a lot of Chinese investors

都不在意風險

don't think risk matters that much,

因為就算出了問題

because the Chinese government will probably

中國政府應該也會紓困

bail everyone out if things go badly.

這篇《彭博》 報導中的一位投資人

Like this investor in this Bloomberg article,

認為財富管理產品

who explains that the Chinese government

涉及到這麼多投資人 政府肯定不會視而不管

would never let a big wealth management product fail,

因為那不是中國的文化

because it's just not Chinese culture.

聽起來有點痴心妄想對吧？

Sounds like wishful thinking, right?

不過中國政府

But the Chinese government has

的確曾為銀行紓困

bailed out banks in the past.

例如 2004 年中國就曾 撥出 450 億為銀行紓困

Like the $45 billion dollar bailout in 2004.

所以認為中國會 再次紓困其實有點道理

So assuming they'll do it again seems reasonable.

但你只要讀過 任何投資產品的購買條款

Although if you've ever read the terms and conditions

上面一定會特別強調

on any investment product ever,

過去的表現

you've seen that “past performance

並無法保證未來的績效

is no guarantee of future results.”

雖然中國政府在過去

Sure, the Chinese government may have done

曾撥出少少的 450 億元紓困金

a small 45 billion dollar bailout in the past.

但這次的金額高達九兆 他們不一定想付這筆錢

But it doesn't want to do a 9 trillion dollar bailout now.

而且別忘了

Besides, back then,

那時中國幾乎沒有影子銀行

there was almost no shadow banking in China.

十年前的經融風暴過後

It only started happening on a large scale

影子銀行才開始盛行

after the global financial crisis ten years ago.

為了刺激中國的經濟

Authorities tried to stimulate China's economy

政府鼓勵銀行發放更多貸款

by having banks lend more money.

隨著貸款需求增加

But soon, demand for borrowing got so high

銀行的資金已不足以應付

that banks didn't have enough money to lend people.

所以銀行就將貸款重新包裝

So banks started packaging loans

賣給投資者以換取現金

and selling them to investors to get the cash.

影子銀行的市場已經大到

And it became such a big market,

連不是銀行的一般公司

other companies that aren't even banks

也想分一杯羹

got into the game.

根據一份 2016 年的報告

According to a 2016 report,

中國目前所有的貸款當中

shadow bank loans now make up

影子銀行就佔了 57%

57 percent all loans in China.

換句話說

In other words,

中國超過一半的貸款

more than half of all lending in China now

都是透過影子銀行借貸的

is actually done through shadow banking!

而這是個很大的問題

And this is a big problem

因為影子銀行的風險

because shadow bank loans are usually

遠遠高出一般貸款的風險

a lot riskier than traditional loans.

隨著公司不斷重新包裝

Once companies start packaging and repackaging,

產品的風險也更加難以追蹤

it's easy to lose track of what the risk actually is.

有時甚至聽起來是個好主意

It even starts to seem like a good idea,

就跟不帶降落傘跳機一樣

like jumping out of a plane without a parachute.

老兄，別傻了

The problem is,

只有基努·李維才做得到

it only works if you're you're Keanu Reeves, dude.

影子銀行還有另一個問題

Oh, and there's another problem.

這些貸款都沒有記錄在

Shadow banking loans don't get recorded

銀行的資產負債表上

on banks' balance sheets.

所以銀行的帳上財務狀況

That makes banks look

看起來比現實狀況健康

healthier than they actually are—

這也是造成高風險的因素

and that also increases the risk.

你知道嗎？

And guess what?

美國 2007 年的金融風暴

That's exactly what happened in the US

就是這樣發生的

leading up to the 2007 crisis.

那些銀行將房屋貸款

Banks had been packaging

不斷進行包裝

and repackaging home loans,

並且多次轉賣這種投資組合

then selling and reselling the packages,

最後連萊曼兄弟的書呆子們

and eventually even the nerds at Lehman Brothers

都不知道如何計算風險

had no idea how to calculate the risk anymore.

美國的影子銀行投資

Shadow banking in the US was the lever

導致了全球的金融風暴

that set the global financial crisis in motion,

諷刺的是

and ironically, its domino effect

這場金融風暴的骨牌效應

is what led to the rise of

導致中國的影子銀行崛起

shadow banking in China.

現在，中國政府非常擔心

And now Chinese authorities are getting worried

即將到來的問題

about what's coming next.

事實上

In fact,

中國人民銀行行長周小川 已經公開警告

“Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of China's central bank

政府必須採取一些措施

has openly warned that authorities

來降低金融風險

need to curb financial risks

以免發生明斯基時刻

that might lead to a 'Minsky Moment'—

即長期的金融成長後

a sudden collapse of asset prices,

因債務或匯率壓力增加

sparked by debt or currency pressures,

導致資產價格大幅下跌

after a long period of growth.”

也就是說影子銀行的壞債

Basically, bad debt in shadow banking

可能拖垮中國整體經濟

could end up wrecking the Chinese economy.

中國經濟一旦發生問題

And if the Chinese economy gets wrecked,

將對中國共產黨

it could lead to serious consequences

造成極為嚴重的影響

for the Chinese Communist Party.

因為沒有人

You know, because no one

真的相信 共產主義那種鬼東西了

believes in that communism stuff anymore,

所以中國政府要人民多賺錢

so they tell people to go make money

不要無聊談政治

and don't talk about politics.

不過一但投資者損失慘重時

But if people start losing their money

大家可能又會開始談政治了

on a massive scale,

像是這件事要怪誰

people might start talking about politics again—

因此，在七月份的高層會議中

like who's to blame.

習近平宣布財務安全

That's why, at a top level conference in July,

對國家安全有重大影響

Xi Jinping declared that financial security

所謂的國家安全 當然是指中國共產黨

was vital to national security.

能否繼續掌權

“National security” is of course code for the CCP

但今年不是 2007 年

securing its power over the nation.

是 2018 年了

But it's not 2007 anymore.

我們已經有 iPhone 10

It's 2018.

強尼·戴普成了哈利波特的反派

We have iPhone 10s,

而中國的影子銀行

Johnny Depp is a Harry Potter villain,

也累積了高達九兆的貸款

and Chinese shadow banking has swelled

一旦經濟出現問題

to more than $9 trillion.

中國政府的紓困方案

The Chinese government can't afford

將無法解救所有人

to bail everyone out

雖然他們試圖控制影子銀行

when things go south.

但是只要老虎一出籠子

They're trying to rein in shadow banking.

我猜

But once you let the tiger out of the cage,

老虎就會到處吃人吧

well, it...

你對影子銀行有什麼看法呢？

I guess it runs around and eats people.

將你的想法留在下面

So what do you think of China's shadow banking?

我是主持人 Matt Gnaizda

Leave your comments below.

又到了我們做那件事的時間了

Once again I'm Matt Gnaizda.

你還在啊？

Now it's time for that thing we do at the end.

太好了

You're still here?

別擔心

Good.

我沒有完全接管中國解密

Don't worry,

Chris 很快就回來了

I haven't taken over China Uncensored.

如果你喜歡我們的節目

Chris will be back soon.

請幫我按一下這個橘色按鈕

In the meantime,

贊助我們的節目

if you like this show,

你可以每集捐一美元或更多金額

we hope you can click on this orange button

我們會投資在 中國的財富管理產品上

and support us by pledging

按一下前往我們的 Patreon 贊助專頁

a dollar or more per episode.

We'll invest it in a Chinese wealth management product.

Click to go to our fundraising website Patreon.