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In this year's Annual Letter, Melinda and I take the toughest questions
今年的年度致信中,梅琳達和我挑出幾個最棘手的問題
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we get asked and give our answers.
我們得回答這些問題並提出自己的見解
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One that's come up for a long time is: as we make the world healthier, is the population going to get so big that feeding everybody and maintaining the environment is going to be impossible?
這是存在已久的問題:當我們將這世界變得更健康之後
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Here we can see a chart that looks at the total world population over the last several hundred years, and at first glance this is a bit scary.
人口的增長是否將會過剩,進而導致全球的糧食問題,
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We go from less than a billion in 1800, and then 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7.4 billion where
且環境也將會更難以維持穩定?
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we are today is happening even faster.
現在有張圖表顯示出全世界的總人口數
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So, Melinda and I wondered whether providing new medicines and keeping children
並記錄著過往數百年的人口,乍看之下非常驚人
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alive, would that create more of a population problem?
從 1800 年不到 10 億人口,擴張到 30, 40, 50, 60 甚至是 74 億
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What we found out is that as health improve, families choose to have less children
時至今日,人口成長更加快速
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and this effect is very, very dramatic.
梅琳達和我懷疑如果研發新藥品,確保孩童身體健康
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We find that in every country of the world, this is repeated.
是否反而會導致人口問題?
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The population growth goes down as we improve health.
我們發現當醫療環境進步後,每個家庭都想要減少生育
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So, we've taken that chart that shows the global population growth
而這種效應十分影響十分劇烈
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and we've actually extended it out all the way to 2100.
我們發現世界各地都可以看到相同情形
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And we can see that instead of continuing, it actually flattens out .
當我們改善醫療後人口成長會下降
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Another way to see that is through this rate of population growth.
所以,這圖表顯示了全球的人口成長
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And you can see that in the 60s that reached a pretty high number,
人口一路直線成長至 2100 年
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over 2% per year, and it's now come way, way down.
圖表顯示人口不再成長,反而逐漸平緩
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Now, 11 billion people is still a lot, but the good news is that the faster we improve
另一個曲線代表人口成長率
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health, the faster family size goes down.
圖表顯示 1960 年代達到一個高峰
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And so, we can feel great about saving those lives.
每年超過 2% ,接著就直線下滑