How good are you at managing money?

你的理財能力怎麼樣？

What about reading people's emotions?

解讀別人的情感的能力呢？

How healthy are you compared to other people you know?

你比你認識的人更健康嗎？

Are you better than average at grammar?

你的語法高於水平嗎？

Knowing how competent we are and how are skill stack up against other people's is more than a self-esteem boost.

清楚了解自己的能力和客觀比較自己與他人的能力，不僅僅能提升自信，

It helps us figure out when we can forge ahead on our own decisions and instincts

這還能幫助我們知道何時該相信自己的直覺及判斷，

and when we need, instead, to seek out advice.

何時又需要他人的意見。

But psychological research suggests that we're not very good at evaluating ourselves accurately.

但心理學研究顯示，人們很少能準確地衡量自己的能力。

In fact, we frequently overestimate our own abilities.

事實上，我們經常高估自己的能力。

Researchers have a name for this phenomena, the Dunning-Kruger effect.

學術界稱此現象為達克效應。

This effect explains why more than 100 studies have shown that people display illusory superiority.

在超過 100 個研究中，這個效應解釋了人們普遍有虛幻優越感的原因。

We judge ourselves as better than others to a degree that violates the laws of math.

我們高估自己到違反數學定律的程度。

When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance,

有個研究讓兩個軟體公司裡的工程師評估自我能力，

32% of the engineers at one company and 42% at the other put themselves in the top 5%.

兩間公司分別有百分之 32 和 42 的工程師認為自己是前百分之五頂尖的人。

In another study, 88% of American drivers described themselves as having above average driving skills.

另一研究顯示，百分之 88 的美國人認為自己的駕駛能力高於平均。

These aren't isolated findings.

這種數據不在少數。

On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.

普遍來說，人們會認為自己在健康、領導能力、倫理等方面都優於平均。

What's particularly interesting is that those with the least ability are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent.

特別有趣的是，那些能力最差的人往往最有可能最誇張的高估自己。

People measurably poor at logical reasoning,

在邏輯推理能力、

grammar,

語法、

financial knowledge,

金融知識、

math,

數學、

emotional intelligence,

情商、

running medical lab tests,

做醫學化驗，

and chess

和下棋

all tend to rate their expertise almost as favorably as actual experts do.

這些方面能力低下的人，都會認為自己堪比專家。

So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?

那誰最容易產生這種幻覺呢？

Sadly, all of us because we all have pockets of incompetence we don't recognize.

悲傷的是，答案是所有人，因為人人都有自己意識不到的短處。

But why?

為什麼呢？

When psychologists, Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999,

心理學家達寧和克魯格在 1999 年提出達克效應時，

they argued that people lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas suffer a double curse.

他們認為人在缺少知識和技術這塊受到了雙重詛咒。

First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions.

第一，他們會失誤和失策。

But second, those same knowledge gaps also prevent them from catching their errors.

第二，知識中的差距會讓他們無法查吃自己的錯誤。

In other words, poor performers lack the very expertise needed to recognize how badly they're doing.

也就是說，表現越差的人越不容易意識到自己多差。

For example, when the researchers studied participants in a college debate tournament,

比如，一項針對大學辯論競賽者的研究發現，

the bottom 25% of teams in preliminary rounds lost nearly four out of every five matches.

前幾輪表現在倒數四分之一的群體，也就是輸了八成比賽的隊伍，

But they thought they were winning almost 60%.

以為自己贏率接近六成。

Without a strong grasp of the rules of debate,

因為他們對辯論規則缺乏深入理解，

the students simply couldn't recognize when or how often their arguments broke down.

這些學生根本無法發現自己的論點什麼時候，有多常分崩離析。

The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question of ego blinding us to our weaknesses.

達克效應的問題並不在於短處被自負心蒙蔽。

People usually do admit their deficits once they can spot them.

如果能發現自己的不足，人們通常會承認錯誤。

In one study, students who had initially done badly on a logic quiz and then took a mini course on logic

一個研究顯示，邏輯測驗表現不好的學生，在上了一堂小型邏輯課後，

were quite willing to label their original performances as awful.

會爽快地承認自己原來的不足。

That may be why people with a moderate amount of experience or expertise often have less confidence in their abilities.

這有可能是水平一般的人或專家通常信心不足的原因。

They know enough to know that there's a lot they don't know.

他們擁有足夠的知識去發現自己的不足。

Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware of just how knowledgeable they are.

另一方面， 專家們往往很清楚自己的水準，

But they often make a different mistake:

但他們經常會犯另一種錯：

they assume that everyone else is knowledgeable, too.

以為其他人也足夠有知識。

The result is that people, whether they're inept or highly skilled,

結果就是，不論是水平不高的人，還是專家

are often caught in a bubble of inaccurate self-perception.

通常都被困在錯誤的自我認知中。

When they're unskilled, they can't see their own faults.

水平不高的人看不到自己的不足。

When they're exceptionally competent, they don't perceive how unusual their abilities are.

能力超高的人無法意識到自己的能力有多罕見。

So if the Dunning-Kruger effect is invisible to those experiencing it,

那麼如果達克效應如此難以察覺，

what can you do to find out how good you actually are at various things?

人們應該如何正確評估自我呢？

First, ask for feedback from other people,

第一，向其他人索要反饋，

and consider it, even if it's hard to hear.

認真考慮這些意見，即使忠言逆耳。

Second, and more important, keep learning.

第二，也是更重要的一點，學不止息。

The more knowledgeable we become,

知道得越多，

the less likely we are to have invisible holes in our competence.

無法認清自己短處的可能性就越小。

Perhaps it all boils down to that old proverb:

就如諺語所說，

When arguing with a fool,

和蠢材吵架時，

first make sure the other person isn't doing the same thing.

先確保自己不是也是笨蛋。