let's take a look at Apple.

讓我們來看看蘋果的股價

Because the stock is on track for its best week in over a year,

它的股價是連續數周下挫後

this after straight weeks of loses.

一年來表現最好的一周

So, should investors trust this bounce?

所以，投資人應該相信這個反彈是上漲的訊號嗎?

Larry McDonald publishes The Bear Traps Report

今天我們邀請到 The Bear Traps Report 雜誌創辦人 Larry McDonald

and Phil Striegels is with RJO futures.

和 RJO 期貨公司的 Phil Striegels

Phil, what do you think?

Phil, 你的看法呢？

You know I'm not completely sold on Apple

我並不是這麼看好蘋果

if you look at the performance for the year

如果你回顧它這一年的股價表現

we're only up about 1% whereas the NASDAQ

它的股價只上漲了約 1% 然而納斯達克

the board index is up 5.

指數卻上漲了 5%

You know it's a tough game being a tactical trader,

你知道做為一個策略性的交易員，挑選一支股票

picking one stock out.

是一件不簡單的事

You know Apple could face a lot of headwinds,

蘋果可能面臨很多不利因素

we do have that, you know potential suit that could go down

這種情況確實存在，你知道潛在的訴訟官司可能會

is the result of them lagging some of the phones out there.

會導致部分手機的延遲出貨

It's just too much companies specific risk.

這間公司有太多具體的風險

I think you'd be better of looking at the complete NASDAQ,

我認為你最好注意納斯達克指數

and looking at the entire market, the board diversification.

及整體市場變化

Larry, what do you think?

Larry, 你的看法呢？

Well, keep in mind, Apple has one of the largest bond portfolios

請記住，蘋果擁有世界上最大的債券投資組合之一

on the planet Earth, I mean, Apple's bond portfolios is bigger than

我的意思是，蘋果的債券投資組合比許多共同基金都要大

many mutual funds, and you know rates have just

而且你知道利率在10年內從2％

gone up on ten years, from 2% to near 3%.

上漲到接近3％

So they've got some mark-to-market losses there

所以他們一定會有一些市值上的損失

and the equity market cap is 900 billion dollars.

股票市值是900億美元

And the way trade Apple over the years is,

而蘋果股價多年來的週期

every like 18 months or so Apple goes on sale,

每隔18個月左右蘋果就會有一波漲勢

and literally in 2013 nobody wanted to buy this stock, nobody.

在2013年甚至沒有人想買進這檔股票，沒有人想

And it had like a 40% draw down because of

由於蘋果業務轉型

a transition in the business.

它的股價跌了將近40％

So you have to wait for that moment for Apple,

所以你必須等待買進蘋果的時機

you can't chase Apple up at 900 billion dollars market cap

你不應該在蘋果市值9000億美元的時候追逐它的股票

make no senses, it's screaming seller.

這是沒道理的，這是市場上的話術

OK, and wait for much better entry point.

好的，等待更好的切入時機

Gentlemen, thank so much. Our thanks to Larry and Phil.

先生們，非常感謝。 謹向 Larry 和 Phil 致謝