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  • Dollar weakness, global growth and oil's rise are great for emerging markets,

    美元疲弱、全球經濟成長、油價上升,這些是新興市場崛起的契機

  • but Mexico is beginning to look like a worry.

    但墨西哥似乎開始擔心了

  • Donald Trump has just announced tariffs aimed mainly at China and South Korea,

    川普剛宣布要對中國及南韓的進口品加重關稅

  • but it is Mexico, which trades more than 80% of its exports to the US,

    從圖表中可看出,墨西哥出口品中超過 80% 的是出口到美國

  • that is particularly vulnerable to trade tensions.

    貿易的緊張情勢一觸即發

  • So why is the Mexican Peso the second best currency performer of the year?

    那為什麼墨西哥披索是年度表現第二好的貨幣呢?

  • Do investors think those old Donald Trump threats to build that famous border wall

    難道投資者認為川普所要蓋的美墨圍牆

  • and tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement are just bluff?

    和中止北美自由貿易協定 (以下簡稱 NAFTA) 只是虛張聲勢而已嗎?

  • NAFTA renegotiation talks resumed on Sunday and there are reasons for investors to bet against their collapse,

    NAFTA 在星期天重啟談判,有些原因使投資者相信 NAFTA 不會中止

  • not least the risk to US jobs.

    特別是對美國的就業市場而言風險太大了

  • But, with a presidential election in Mexico due in July,

    但因為墨西哥七月要舉行總統大選

  • those talks could last most of the year.

    談判可能會持續一年中一大半的時間

  • That election, however, has its own risks.

    那場選舉,也有自己要承受的風險

  • The end of NAFTA and victory for populist candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,

    NAFTA 的中止與平民主義且在民調中領先的候選人─洛佩斯·奧布拉多爾的勝利

  • who leads in the opinion polls could send the Peso toward record lows.

    會使墨西哥披索跌至記錄新低

  • And there are ripple effects.

    引起一連串的效應

  • One analysts says China and other Asian countries benefit from NAFTA by exporting products to Mexico,

    有一位分析師指出中國和其他亞洲國家藉由先出口商品至墨西哥

  • that are then exported to the US.

    再出口到美國而得利

  • So the US now wants amendments that would require at least half of vehicle parts to come from America.

    所以美國現在希望這個修正案,要求至少一半的汽車零組件是來自美國

  • Investors flip-flopped in 2017 on the Peso,

    投資者在 2017 年對墨西哥披索的喜好變來變去

  • a currency which moved by at least 1% in either direction on 36 days in the last 12 months.

    這個貨幣在過去的 12 個月中,有 36 天的匯率都波動不定,漲幅及跌幅至少都達到 1%

  • Another big move lower came on Tuesday.

    禮拜二披索又暴跌

  • Get used to Peso volatility.

    習慣匯率波動不停的墨西哥披索吧!

Dollar weakness, global growth and oil's rise are great for emerging markets,

美元疲弱、全球經濟成長、油價上升,這些是新興市場崛起的契機

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 FinancialTimes 墨西哥 匯率 談判 投資 美國

習慣於墨西哥比索的波動性--短線觀點 (Get used to Mexican peso volatility | Short View)

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    李依庭 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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