but Mexico is beginning to look like a worry.

但墨西哥似乎開始擔心了

Donald Trump has just announced tariffs aimed mainly at China and South Korea,

川普剛宣布要對中國及南韓的進口品加重關稅

but it is Mexico, which trades more than 80% of its exports to the US,

從圖表中可看出，墨西哥出口品中超過 80% 的是出口到美國

that is particularly vulnerable to trade tensions.

貿易的緊張情勢一觸即發

So why is the Mexican Peso the second best currency performer of the year?

那為什麼墨西哥披索是年度表現第二好的貨幣呢？

Do investors think those old Donald Trump threats to build that famous border wall

難道投資者認為川普所要蓋的美墨圍牆

and tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement are just bluff?

和中止北美自由貿易協定 (以下簡稱 NAFTA) 只是虛張聲勢而已嗎？

NAFTA renegotiation talks resumed on Sunday and there are reasons for investors to bet against their collapse,

NAFTA 在星期天重啟談判，有些原因使投資者相信 NAFTA 不會中止

not least the risk to US jobs.

特別是對美國的就業市場而言風險太大了

But, with a presidential election in Mexico due in July,

但因為墨西哥七月要舉行總統大選

those talks could last most of the year.

談判可能會持續一年中一大半的時間

That election, however, has its own risks.

那場選舉，也有自己要承受的風險

The end of NAFTA and victory for populist candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,

NAFTA 的中止與平民主義且在民調中領先的候選人─洛佩斯·奧布拉多爾的勝利

who leads in the opinion polls could send the Peso toward record lows.

會使墨西哥披索跌至記錄新低

And there are ripple effects.

引起一連串的效應

One analysts says China and other Asian countries benefit from NAFTA by exporting products to Mexico,

有一位分析師指出中國和其他亞洲國家藉由先出口商品至墨西哥

that are then exported to the US.

再出口到美國而得利

So the US now wants amendments that would require at least half of vehicle parts to come from America.

所以美國現在希望這個修正案，要求至少一半的汽車零組件是來自美國

Investors flip-flopped in 2017 on the Peso,

投資者在 2017 年對墨西哥披索的喜好變來變去

a currency which moved by at least 1% in either direction on 36 days in the last 12 months.

這個貨幣在過去的 12 個月中，有 36 天的匯率都波動不定，漲幅及跌幅至少都達到 1%

Another big move lower came on Tuesday.

禮拜二披索又暴跌

Get used to Peso volatility.

習慣匯率波動不停的墨西哥披索吧！