At least that was the idea behind the "peak oil" hypothesis

至少這是幾十年來主導經濟思想的「石油峰值」假說

that dominated economic thinking for decades.

背後所隱含的想法

But it turns out that with fracking,

但事實證明，在壓裂、

deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there's a lot more oil in the world than we once thought.

深水鑽井和油砂方面，世界上的石油量比我們所想的還要多

The old "peak oil" theory ain't happening.

過去提出的「石油峰值」理論並沒有發生

But what if instead of running out of oil we just stopped buying the stuff?

那如果不是油量耗盡，而是我們就乾脆不買油了？

Most oilmen scoff at the idea.

大部分的石油工人都嘲笑這個想法

There are one billion gas guzzling cars on the road worldwide today,

目前全球道路上有十億輛耗油車

and only one tenth of one percent of them have a plug.

其中只有 0.01% 的車屬於插電式混合電動車

OPEC contends that even in the year 2040, EVs will make up just one percent.

石油輸出國家組織認為即使到了 2040 年，電動汽車也只佔 1％

But don't be so sure.

但先不要那麼肯定

Consider the "S Curve.”

想想所謂的「S 曲線」

S Curves are used to describe the spread of new technologies over time,

S 曲線 (生長曲線模型) 是用來描述新技術隨時間推移的成長幅度

like early refrigerators and color TVs.

像是早期的冰箱和彩色電視

Growth starts off slowly at first,

起步時，成長緩慢

and then when the product really starts to connect with everyday people. We have liftoff.

而當產品真正開始與人們的日常生活連結起來時，成長快速起飛

Eventually the market gets saturated and growth tapers off, forming the top of the "S".

最終市場飽和，成長趨緩，形成 S 曲線的頂端

Predicting the S Curve for electric cars is extremely difficult, because we're making

預測電動車的 S 曲線極為困難，因為我們是在對

assumptions about demand for a type of vehicle that doesn't even exist yet:

一種還不存在的汽車市場需求做出假設

fast, affordable, and spacious cars that have an electric range of at least 2 to 3 hundred miles.

一種快速、經濟實惠、寬敞，且續駛里程至少 200 到 300 英里的電動車

But here's what we know: In the next few years Tesla, Nissan and Chevy plan to start

但我們知道的是，在未來幾年內，Tesla、Nissan 和 Chevy 等汽車公司都計畫要開始

selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. And other carmakers and tech companies

銷售三萬美金以內的長程電動車，至於其他的汽車製造商和科技公司

are investing billions on dozens of new models due out in the next four years.

正投入數十億美元，預計在未來四年內推出數十種新車型

By 2020, some of these will be faster, safer, cheaper, and more convenient than their gasoline counterparts.

到了 2020 年，其中一些電動車可能會比原本的普通耗油車更快、更安全、更方便

That sure seems like the point when the S curve goes vertical.

那就會像當 S 曲線趨於垂直時的情況

To start an oil crash, you don't need to replace all of the cars on the road today.

石油危機發生之前，你不用將路上所有的汽車都換成電動車

You just need to reduce demand enough to cause a glut of unwanted oil.

你只要將其需求降低到一定水準，導致大量不必要的油

Consider the oil crash that started in 2014. That was caused by too much supply,

想想 2014 年開始的石油危機，就是供給過剩所導致的

when producers started pumping out an extra 2 million barrels a day.

當時製造商每天多產出兩百萬桶石油

So when electric vehicles are able to displace that much on the demand side, it should also

所以當電動車的存在降低人們對石油的需求，而使石油供過於求

cause a crash. When might that happen?

也可能導致類似的危機，那它什麼時候會發生呢？

Tesla is building factories to go from about 50,000 sales last year to 500,000 in 2020.

Tesla 正在建設工廠，就是為了讓銷量能從去年的約五萬輛擴增到 2020 年五十萬輛

Let's assume for a minute that Tesla can meet its own forecasts. And let's assume

假設 Tesla 可以達到自己所預測的銷量

that other carmakers maintain their current combined market share for plugins.

而其他汽車製造商也維持其目前對於插電式混合電動車的市佔率

If each electric vehicle displaces about 15 barrels a year, here's the

如果每輛電動車一年大約能取代 15 桶油

impact on oil from all the EVs worldwide. At this rate we hit our benchmark of 2 million

那麼全球電動車對於石油的影響就會如下：按照這個速度來看

barrels of oil a day displaced as early as 2023. That's an oil crisis. And the thing

2023 年就會達到取代兩百萬桶的基準，石油危機就此發生

is, it's just the beginning. It's not at all unreasonable to assume that by 2040

重點是，這只是一開始，若要假設 2040 年時全球將近一半的的新車都

nearly half of the world's new cars will have a plug.

是插電式混合電動車也是有可能的

Sure you're skeptical. The price of electric cars still needs to come down, there aren't

你當然會很懷疑，因為電動車若要普及，價格還是要壓下來

yet enough fast charging stations for convenient long-distance road trips.

而且還沒有設置足夠的充電站供長途旅行使用

Many new drivers in developing countries like China and India will still choose gasoline and diesel.

且中國和印度等開發中國家的許多新車主仍會選擇汽油或柴油車

But imagine a future when the rumbling streets of New York and New Delhi suddenly fall

但想像一下在未來，因為有了電動車，紐約和新德里吵雜的街道將會變得安靜

silent with electric engines. What if global demand for oil starts to fall—at first by

那萬一全球對於石油的需求開始下降，起初下降一點點

a trickle, but then in a rush. Trillions invested in oil will be lost, while trillions in new

但接著急遽下降，如此一來，數兆石油投資將會流失

energy will be won. The power of nations will be shuffled.

而相反地，新能源將獲得數兆投資，各國力量也將面臨洗牌

That's the promise of the new peak oil, and it may be coming sooner than you think.

這就是新「石油峰值」所承諾的狀況，而它可能比你想像的還要更早來臨